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Racing Chat - Friday 16th April


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Just 8 DAYS to go in the jump jockey champs and Harry Skelton leads Brian Hughes by a score of 141-139 with Brian only having the 1 winner on Thursday at Cheltenham, both jockeys go to Ayr with rides in all races 

Harry Skelton rides Stepney Causeway(1300), Soyouthinksoagain (1330),Eskendash (1405), Global Harmony (1440), Not That Fuisse (1515), Defining Battle (1550), I'd Better Go Now (1627)

Brian Hughes rides Mrs Hyde (1300), Beyond The Pile (1330), Fourth Of July (1405), Lily's Gem (1440), Schiehallion Munro (1515), Fete Champetre (1550), Sultans Pride (1627)

Skelton 4 Fold:  Stepney Causeway, Global Harmony, Not That Fuisse
Hughes Double: Fourth Of July, Fete Champetre
**********************************************************************
1340 Newbury HM The Queen has a runner in this race King's Lynn becomes my nap having finished 2nd at Doncaster in October,  im also considering a Rev F/C in this race with Ivatheengine won at Newmarket last time after a 6 month absense could go well and given the Queen travels by train to Norfolk town of King's Lynn when going to her residance at Sandringham which isnt too far      Kings Lynn: 11/4 with most bookmakers and Ivatheengine is 8/1 with most 

Fontwell 1535 probably about the best race at the Sussex track, Good News comes into this off a victory at Plumpton 11 days ago and Kieren Buckley takes 7lbs off, Bolt N Brown finished 2nd last time out but hasnt won since last year at Ludlow possibly needs a few to run below par to get more than a place effort in this contest, Emma's Dilemma won for the first on her 18th start last month at Huntingdon she goes up 8lbs for that but jockey Nathan Brennan takes 7 of that off so could make it back to back wins and is my selection here

Exeter 1750 Jersey Wonder won at Fontwell 18 days ago and gets a 6lb rise for that and may back that up, Cotswold Way 2 runs ago finished 4th at Kempton on 1lb higher that this race disappointed at Cheltenham on most recent start 126 days ago however, my selection will be Jarvey's Plate won at Newbury 3 weeks ago and recieves a 4lb penalty with Jockey Liam Harrison claiming 7lbs 

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Seaside Girl 5:20 Exeter 13/8, looked a ready made winner last time when 2nd to a very well handicapped horse (won easily next time off 12lb higher). This looks a pretty soft race with Auld Sod the second fav. Should win with a repeat of the Huntingdon effort.

 

Poor run, bad mistake almost unseated the jockey and maybe upset the horse a bit but didn't run to the same level as Huntingdon.

Edited by yossa6133
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1310 Newbury Tyson 9/4 = 1.5pts (INFO from an old friend who sends them occasionally and used to be very well connected)

 

1340 Newbury Dirty Rascal 11/2 = 1pt

 

1415 Newbury Almighwar 10/3 (backed this when price opened earlier) INFO = 1.5pts

 

1440 Ayr Miah Grace 15/2 = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total)

 

1525 Newbury Maximal 5/2 = 1pt

 

Win double

1425 Fontwell Nye Bevan

1610 Fontwell Diligent 

1pt @ 4/1

 

1550 Ayr Torigni 6/1 e/w = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total)

 

1645 La Teste De Buch Belharra 9/4 = 1.5pts

 

Current pot = £855

Edited by Barnes1882
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10 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

1340 Newbury Dirty Rascal 11/2 = 1pt

 

1415 Newbury Almighwar 10/3 (backed this when price opened earlier) INFO = 1.5pts

 

1440 Ayr Miah Grace 15/2 = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total)

 

1525 Newbury Maximal 5/2 = 1pt

 

Win double

1425 Fontwell Nye Bevan

1610 Fontwell Diligent 

1pt @ 4/1

 

1645 La Teste De Buch Belharra 9/4 = 1.5pts

 

Current pot = £905

Selections updated, think that's me done for the day.

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11 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

1310 Newbury Tyson 9/4 = 1.5pts (INFO from an old friend who sends them occasionally and used to be very well connected)

 

1340 Newbury Dirty Rascal 11/2 = 1pt

 

1415 Newbury Almighwar 10/3 (backed this when price opened earlier) INFO = 1.5pts

 

1440 Ayr Miah Grace 15/2 = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total)

 

1525 Newbury Maximal 5/2 = 1pt

 

Win double

1425 Fontwell Nye Bevan

1610 Fontwell Diligent 

1pt @ 4/1

 

1645 La Teste De Buch Belharra 9/4 = 1.5pts

 

Current pot = £875

One last selection added (INFO).

Good luck today 💷🐎

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All prices Bet365:

1.10 Newbury - 2pts win Poderoso @ 4/1

1.30 Ayr - 1pt e/w Lord Accord @ 20/1

1.40 Newbury - 1pt e/w Tis Marvellous @ 11/1

2.05 Ayr - 1pt e/w Slanelough @ 17/2

2.15 Newbury - 1pt e/w Solo Saxophone @ 16/1

2.50 Newbury - 1pt e/w First Lott @ 22/1

3.25 Newbury - 1pt e/w Set Point @ 22/1

4.27 Ayr - 1pt e/w Sultans Pride @ 10/1

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58 minutes ago, azzybear said:

I can't see why the fav is odds on in the 1.00 wouldent  touch the horse at that price 

Have to agree mate, prices shouldn't be that distant between the top two in the market. If I had to pick last night I would have actually gone with Mrs Hyde as it has the better form but it was a watching race for me. Someone must know something for the horse to be backed in that strongly but I still wouldn't touch it with stolen money. 

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13 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

1310 Newbury Tyson 9/4 = 1.5pts (INFO from an old friend who sends them occasionally and used to be very well connected)

 

1340 Newbury Dirty Rascal 11/2 = 1pt

 

1415 Newbury Almighwar 10/3 (backed this when price opened earlier) INFO = 1.5pts

 

1440 Ayr Miah Grace 15/2 = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total)

 

1525 Newbury Maximal 5/2 = 1pt

 

Win double

1425 Fontwell Nye Bevan

1610 Fontwell Diligent 

1pt @ 4/1

 

1550 Ayr Torigni 6/1 e/w = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total)

 

1645 La Teste De Buch Belharra 9/4 = 1.5pts

 

Current pot = £855

One last selection in BOLD.

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I'd recommend considering the Wisdom Of Crowd Market Index

The original author never trades in a market with an index above ~0.13 

Below this index, " the crowd is relatively uninformed about the likely outcome and presents an excellent opportunity for the informed sports trader."

TL; DR "... adapting Shannon's Entropy formula ..."

  • First, calculate the implied probabilities of the prices: x = 1 / d (where d = decimal odds). 
  • Next, calculate the log probabilities: y = log(x, n) (where n = number of competitors). 
  • Then multiply the probabilities by the log probabilities: z = x * y
  • Finally, sum the products and subtract from one for the final index: w = 1 - (-sum(z)).
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2 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:

When did you get 6/1 for Torigni?

I have an interest in the race and have been watching the prices most of the day. Best price 9/2 for at least 90 minutes

Backed it first thing this morning mate. I could have actually got 15/2 but was waiting to hear off my mate who lives in Ayr and is usually very good with his selections up there. I still hadn't heard so decided to back and was annoyed I had missed the 15/2 but was happy enough with the 6/1. I was going to cash out if he said to leave it but he said at 6/1 it was good value so I've kept it. 

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1 minute ago, Barnes1882 said:

Backed it first thing this morning mate. I could have actually got 15/2 but was waiting to hear off my mate who lives in Ayr and is usually very good with his selections up there. I still hadn't heard so decided to back and was annoyed I had missed the 15/2 but was happy enough with the 6/1. I was going to cash out if he said to leave it but he said at 6/1 it was good value so I've kept it. 

Makes sense. I would have just expected you to have declared it with your first post. It was confusing me as you inferred you had just backed it when you posted an hour ago

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Just now, Wanderlust said:

Makes sense. I would have just expected you to have declared it with your first post. It was confusing me as you inferred you had just backed it when you posted an hour ago

Sorry, I just didn't want to put a bet up that I wasn't 100% keeping myself and until I spoke to my mate, I wasn't sure what I was going to do. Didn't want to put a bet up, people possibly follow it and then I cash out. I am happy to alter the price of the selection if you would like? But my bank won't match up if it wins.

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6 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:

So my original question stands then...What time did you get 6/1? I am genuinely curious, as It has not been 6/1 on my board( which covers all major bookies) since this morning

Can't quite believe how much scrutiny I'm coming under recently. I'm not trying to pull the wool over anyones eyes or make my returns look greater than they're. I have attached a photo of the message I sent my mate at 0910am this morning. I backed the horse shortly after this....(as you can see, I had already backed Miah Grace).

Screenshot_20210416-135015_Telegram.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

Can't quite believe how much scrutiny I'm coming under recently. I'm not trying to pull the wool over anyones eyes or make my returns look greater than they're. I have attached a photo of the message I sent my mate at 0910am this morning. I backed the horse shortly after this....(as you can see, I had already backed Miah Grace).

Screenshot_20210416-135015_Telegram.jpg

just do bets price on offer at time of posting in brackets next to ur price... sorted.

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6 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

Can't quite believe how much scrutiny I'm coming under recently. I'm not trying to pull the wool over anyones eyes or make my returns look greater than they're. I have attached a photo of the message I sent my mate at 0910am this morning. I backed the horse shortly after this....(as you can see, I had already backed Miah Grace).

Screenshot_20210416-135015_Telegram.jpg

If people post bets/advice on this site, they come under scrutiny. Nothing wrong with that.

My point which seems to have been lost on you, is that when you posted the 'tip' it was not 6/1

Secondly and I guess I am being rather pedantic over something which is of no personal concern to me, it would appear that you bet horses early in the day, but do not necessarily pass them on as tips, as your buddy had not given you the green light. My point is that in order to have a working system, then every horse you back is part of your system, surely? Its all or none when you have a staking system. You cannot pick and choose which ones to declare and then as an after thought say.....oh by the way I backed such and such this morning at twice the price.

Not Having a go at you, just trying to explain why people would question your postings

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I agree, it all comes down to value. It is probably good value at 15/2 or 6/1 but maybe not at 9/2.

Personally, any selections I post I make sure that the price is available at the time of posting.

I think we all appreciate your selections and also the fact you are keeping a record of your bank. This is very important and I would advise others to also post their cumulative profit / losses, both for our benefit and also their own.

 

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3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I agree, it all comes down to value. It is probably good value at 15/2 or 6/1 but maybe not at 9/2.

Personally, any selections I post I make sure that the price is available at the time of posting.

I think we all appreciate your selections and also the fact you are keeping a record of your bank. This is very important and I would advise others to also post their cumulative profit / losses, both for our benefit and also their own.

 

Excellent advice.  Is there anyway that you can get the web site administrators to set the exact time of posting on threads.  It is sometimes confusing to read 3 hours ago etc.

 

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8 hours ago, Ironjoe said:

Newbury 1.40 came from the dark 4/1 won

Newbury 2.35 almighwar 5/2 2nd  and cleonte ew 8/1 4th (a place with sky bet)

Bath 5.40 wise words 100/30 2nd

Bath 6.10 singing the blues 9/2 unplaced

Good luck 🤙

 

Not quite getting rub if the green, frustrating today. Will start adding points and a profit/loss from tomorrow

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