Football ratings without reference to results

[Data]

Although I don't bet as much as I once did, my interest in attempting to solve the age old problem of finding profitable angles remains unabated.
In keeping with most people for years I've poured over & analysed past results in an effort to best predict future outcomes. But I'm now questioning whether the study of past results is the best approach.

I found www.soccer-rating.com many years ago and have revisited it from time to time because the idea of ratings from bookmaker odds was intriguing to me - although using the site's info didn't really help me and anything & everything I tried also failed to impress.

Then recently I read a paper which was looking into soccer ratings with some surprising conclusions. Written in 2018 by Fabian Wunderlich & Daniel Memmert their findings at https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0198668 throw up interesting outcomes.

Using and evaluating ELO rating methods it makes the case that ELO using Won-Draw-Lose for its update calculations gives poorer predictive outcomes than if using goals scored & conceded for each update. The most surprising finding (at least for me) was that if bookmaker odds are used after each game and NOT the game result, it improves ELO's effectiveness even more.

So, have you got that? Moulding ELO to predict bookmaker odds is better at predicting football results than using the results themselves!

This revelation rekindled my interest in the subject. All football ratings usually require a degree of work on the punter's part, ELO or any ratings are unlikely to make you a winner by themselves, it's down to the way you implement them with a bit of creativity. But, m'thinks, if I could model match odds instead of ratings AND model my odds from past ODDS rather than SCORES, then as well as increasing my accuracy (according to the above paper) I'd easily be able to check my forecast with those of the bookies allowing a straight comparison.

Well, that was the theory . . . but what about the practice?

Well, I'm pleasantly surprised at both the accuracy & predictive power of my modelling. Employing the idea retrospectively over this past season a double figure ROI is achievable by using a simple rule of "if the P of my odds is better than that of the bookmaker by a specific margin, then bet".

Draws bets are of little value, I could have expected that because I'm modelling home & away odds only, the draw odds are inferred by using the two modelled prices and making the whole up to about 106% overround. But both potential home win and away win bets were equally productive.

Prices used for this method are AVERAGE odds from OddsPortal, also the potential profits were taken using average odds too, so performance should also be easily available and frequently improved upon.

Predictions are created from a recent subset of past games (in order to hopefully pick up market trends/moves) and employs evolutionary techniques but without recourse to random numbers.

Here's last weeks and this weeks odds predictions, the first three columns are OddsPortal average odds, the final 3 columns are the modelled odds. Some of the OddsPortal prices will have changed already, I sampled them this afternoon. But the predicted odds are fixed based as they are on previous games.

I did title this "Football ratings without reference to results" which of course isn't exactly true. It uses past odds as a reference point and of course markets will be affected by results. So there is an indirect relationship, but who's counting?

league	date	KO	game	OP-H	OP-D	OP-A	predH	predD	predA
Premier League	09/04/2021	20:00	Fulham - Wolves	2.64	3.08	2.95	2.89	3.08	2.56
Premier League	10/04/2021	12:30	Manchester City - Leeds	1.38	5.23	7.89	1.26	8.45	6.81
Premier League	10/04/2021	15:00	Liverpool - Aston Villa	1.47	4.65	6.92	1.52	4.51	5.52
Premier League	10/04/2021	17:30	Crystal Palace - Chelsea	7.32	4.19	1.5	6.96	4.52	1.44
Premier League	11/04/2021	12:00	Burnley - Newcastle	2.27	3.33	3.31	2.06	3.17	3.87
Premier League	11/04/2021	14:05	West Ham - Leicester	3.18	3.23	2.39	3.21	3.27	2.26
Premier League	11/04/2021	16:30	Tottenham - Manchester Utd	2.94	3.51	2.4	2.79	3.36	2.48
Premier League	11/04/2021	19:00	Sheffield Utd - Arsenal	5.54	3.89	1.66	5.23	3.37	1.75
Premier League	12/04/2021	18:00	West Brom - Southampton	3.57	3.55	2.08	3.61	3.91	1.9
Premier League	12/04/2021	20:15	Brighton - Everton	2.15	3.44	3.51	2.54	2.77	3.28
Championship	09/04/2021	19:45	Watford - Reading	1.77	3.49	4.96	2.05	3.05	4.1
Championship	10/04/2021	12:30	Millwall - Swansea	3.21	3	2.44	3.09	3.16	2.38
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Barnsley - Middlesbrough	2.02	3.33	3.86	2.23	3.25	3.29
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Birmingham - Stoke	2.82	2.96	2.77	3.1	3.04	2.45
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Bournemouth - Coventry	1.63	3.8	5.67	1.81	3.44	4.59
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Bristol City - Nottingham	3.45	3.24	2.2	3.27	2.85	2.48
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Cardiff - Blackburn	2.55	3.19	2.88	2.33	3.15	3.2
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Derby - Norwich	5.41	4.08	1.61	4.7	3.57	1.76
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Huddersfield - Rotherham	2.48	3.21	2.95	2.46	3.12	3
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Preston - Brentford	4.17	3.49	1.89	4.28	3.19	1.95
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	QPR - Sheffield Wed	2.24	3.36	3.21	1.95	3.18	4.31
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Wycombe - Luton	3.41	3.31	2.18	3.58	3.19	2.14
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Accrington - AFC Wimbledon	2.12	3.39	3.35	1.97	3.46	3.81
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Crewe - Oxford Utd	2.39	3.34	2.88	2.67	2.97	2.87
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Doncaster - Wigan	2.17	3.29	3.33	1.91	3.38	4.18
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Fleetwood - Rochdale	2.03	3.26	3.77	1.74	3.41	5.18
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Gillingham - Shrewsbury	2.28	3.13	3.25	2.33	3.17	3.17
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Ipswich - MK Dons	2.58	3.13	2.78	2.59	3.29	2.7
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Lincoln - Blackpool	2.71	3.2	2.59	2.38	3.1	3.16
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Northampton - Bristol Rovers	2.87	3.04	2.58	2.49	3.54	2.66
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Plymouth - Hull	5.27	4.04	1.59	4.51	3.4	1.84
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Portsmouth - Burton	1.9	3.33	4.2	1.77	3.51	4.75
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Sunderland - Charlton	1.88	3.34	4.25	2.16	3.36	3.35
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Swindon - Peterborough	4.91	3.57	1.72	4.13	4	1.76
League Two	09/04/2021	18:00	Mansfield - Newport	2.39	2.92	3.24	2.2	3.24	3.38
League Two	09/04/2021	19:00	Oldham - Colchester	2.58	3.26	2.68	2.26	3.24	3.23
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Barrow - Carlisle	3.12	3.05	2.38	3.12	3.12	2.39
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Bolton - Harrogate	1.84	3.53	4.18	2.07	3.62	3.33
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Bradford City - Grimsby	2.04	3.25	3.7	1.77	3.58	4.63
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Cambridge Utd - Exeter	2.54	3.15	2.8	2.9	3.06	2.57
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Cheltenham - Leyton Orient	1.81	3.4	4.53	1.78	3.72	4.35
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Port Vale - Morecambe	2.37	3.12	3.08	2.58	3.25	2.75
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Salford - Stevenage	2.14	2.97	3.81	1.92	3.33	4.17
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Scnuthorpe - Tranmere	3.56	3.17	2.12	3.07	3.3	2.32
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Southend - Crawley	2.48	3.08	2.93	2.74	2.96	2.8
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Walsall - Forest Green	3.08	2.98	2.45	2.89	3.33	2.41
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Altrincham - FC Halifax	3.03	3.24	2.27	2.87	3.31	2.44
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Boreham Wood - Wealdstone	1.4	4.41	7.23	1.52	4.22	6.03
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Bromley - Dag & Red	2.15	3.41	3.11	1.97	3.55	3.7
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Eastleigh - Woking	2.21	3	3.39	2.68	3.01	2.82
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	King?s Lynn - Chesterfield	5.79	4.13	1.51	4.71	3.83	1.7
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Maidenhead - Barnet	1.48	4.3	5.77	1.68	4.48	4.16
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Torquay - Weymouth	1.44	4.31	6.58	1.38	4.78	7.98
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Wrexham - Stockport	3.81	3.26	1.96	3.72	3.19	2.09
National League	10/04/2021	17:20	Hartlepool - Notts Co	2.31	3.15	3.03	2.1	3.64	3.23
Championship	13/04/2021	17:30	Huddersfield - Bournemouth	4.55	3.62	1.79	3.87	3.38	1.98
Championship	13/04/2021	18:00	Sheffield Wed - Swansea	2.84	3.15	2.6	3.27	3.31	2.22
Championship	13/04/2021	19:00	Rotherham - QPR	2.51	3.51	2.71	2.78	3.87	2.27
League One	13/04/2021	18:00	Crewe - Portsmouth	3.16	3.3	2.23	2.55	3.25	2.77
League One	13/04/2021	18:00	Wigan - Sunderland	4.4	3.47	1.81	4.76	3.86	1.69
League One	13/04/2021	18:30	AFC Wimbledon - Ipswich	2.93	3	2.55	3.37	3.06	2.29
League One	13/04/2021	19:00	Blackpool - Accrington	1.72	3.75	4.62	1.9	3.42	4.14
League One	13/04/2021	19:00	Doncaster - Burton	2.42	3.19	2.94	2.23	3.22	3.32
League One	13/04/2021	19:00	Lincoln - MK Dons	2.31	3.45	2.9	2.35	3.58	2.82
League One	13/04/2021	19:00	Oxford Utd - Shrewsbury	1.92	3.28	4.14	1.96	3.18	4.24
League One	13/04/2021	19:00	Rochdale - Swindon	2.33	3.17	3.11	2.41	3.48	2.8
League Two	13/04/2021	18:30	Morecambe - Scnuthorpe	1.63	3.7	5.48	2.19	3.3	3.32
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Barrow - Exeter	3.06	3.21	2.34	3.6	2.93	2.27
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Bradford City - Crawley	2.02	3.42	3.57	2.18	3.13	3.54
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Harrogate - Leyton Orient	2.27	3.11	3.28	2.12	3.24	3.58
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Newport - Carlisle	2.71	2.98	2.76	2.47	3.46	2.73
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Salford - Bolton	2.64	2.98	2.83	2.41	3.14	3.05
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Walsall - Tranmere	3.06	3.1	2.39	3.42	2.99	2.31
National League	13/04/2021	19:00	Dag & Red - Eastleigh	2.39	3.05	2.98	2.37	3.09	3.18
National League	13/04/2021	19:00	FC Halifax - Wrexham	2.21	3.24	3.13	2.3	2.97	3.45
National League	13/04/2021	19:00	Solihull Moors - Notts Co	2.98	3.17	2.33	2.99	3.07	2.5
National League	13/04/2021	19:00	Stockport - King?s Lynn	1.27	5.27	10.01	1.48	4.48	6.24
National League	13/04/2021	19:00	Sutton - Torquay	2.13	3.05	3.52	2.24	3.86	2.82
National League	13/04/2021	19:45	Chesterfield - Boreham Wood	2.13	3.15	3.41	2.08	4.02	3.02
National League	13/04/2021	19:45	Weymouth - Aldershot	3.68	3.44	1.93	3.75	3.24	2.06
National League	13/04/2021	19:45	Woking - Bromley	3.14	3.29	2.19	2.63	3.24	2.69
Premier League	16/04/2021	20:00	Everton - Tottenham	3.32	3.37	2.25	2.63	3.17	2.74
Premier League	17/04/2021	12:30	Newcastle - West Ham	3.79	3.45	2.04	3.93	3.09	2.08
Premier League	17/04/2021	20:15	Wolves - Sheffield Utd	1.68	3.58	5.97	1.81	3.45	4.62
Premier League	18/04/2021	13:30	Arsenal - Fulham	1.75	3.7	4.98	2.03	3.46	3.58
Premier League	18/04/2021	16:00	Manchester Utd - Burnley	1.35	5.11	9.49	1.51	3.88	7.27
Premier League	19/04/2021	20:00	Leeds - Liverpool	4.63	4.23	1.69	3.98	3.63	1.88
Championship	16/04/2021	18:00	Blackburn - Derby	2.19	3.25	3.42	2.2	3.13	3.5
Championship	16/04/2021	18:00	Reading - Cardiff	2.19	3.2	3.47	2.6	2.79	3.16
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Brentford - Millwall	1.59	3.77	6.13	1.76	3.33	5.21
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Luton - Watford	4.52	3.49	1.82	4.76	3.34	1.82
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Middlesbrough - QPR	2.05	3.42	3.62	2.26	3.77	2.85
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Nottingham - Huddersfield	2.08	3.21	3.77	1.97	3.87	3.4
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Sheffield Wed - Bristol City	2.02	3.35	3.8	2.14	3.37	3.38
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Stoke - Preston	2.13	3.13	3.73	2.13	2.73	4.44
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Swansea - Wycombe	1.5	3.94	7.37	1.5	4.17	6.47
Championship	17/04/2021	20:00	Norwich - Bournemouth	1.9	3.61	3.93	1.93	3.51	3.88
Championship	18/04/2021	12:00	Rotherham - Birmingham	2.67	3.2	2.7	2.6	2.7	3.27
Championship	18/04/2021	15:00	Coventry - Barnsley	3.63	3.24	2.12	3.31	3.13	2.28
League One	16/04/2021	19:45	Peterborough - Northampton	1.47	4.17	6.52	1.78	3.06	5.87
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Blackpool - Sunderland	2.75	3.1	2.62	2.71	3.47	2.48
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Bristol Rovers - Lincoln	2.82	3.32	2.42	3.36	3.62	2.06
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Burton - Plymouth	2.03	3.41	3.55	2.09	3.79	3.16
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Charlton - Ipswich	2.1	3.19	3.57	2.29	3.07	3.37
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Hull - Fleetwood	1.55	3.82	6.12	1.7	3.54	5.28
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	MK Dons - Portsmouth	2.85	3.15	2.5	2.62	3.81	2.4
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Rochdale - Accrington	2.62	3.34	2.58	2.67	3.94	2.31
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Shrewsbury - Doncaster	2.26	3.16	3.22	2.67	2.89	2.94
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Wigan - Crewe	2.81	3.27	2.45	3.39	3.16	2.23
League One	17/04/2021	17:30	AFC Wimbledon - Swindon	2.2	3.29	3.22	2.07	3.14	3.86
League One	17/04/2021	17:30	Oxford Utd - Gillingham	2.06	3.39	3.49	2.1	3.18	3.7
League Two	16/04/2021	18:30	Crawley - Cheltenham	3.62	3.4	1.98	3.03	3.14	2.43
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Carlisle - Port Vale	2.26	3.18	3.2	2.27	3.32	3.13
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Exeter - Southend	1.71	3.5	5.01	1.67	3.35	6.1
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Forest Green - Scnuthorpe	1.91	3.3	4.09	2.05	3.06	4.07
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Grimsby - Bolton	3.56	3.31	2.05	4.65	3.49	1.79
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Harrogate - Bradford City	2.31	3.2	3.08	2.42	3.01	3.17
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Leyton Orient - Barrow	2.51	3.07	2.88	2.41	2.83	3.42
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Morecambe - Oldham	1.96	3.51	3.6	1.97	3.8	3.46
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Newport - Cambridge Utd	2.3	3.04	3.25	2.31	3.32	3.07
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Stevenage - Mansfield	2.7	2.96	2.74	2.79	3.22	2.55
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Tranmere - Salford	2.51	3	2.95	2.83	3.21	2.53
League Two	17/04/2021	17:30	Colchester - Walsall	2.3	3.1	3.18	2.47	3.1	3
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Altrincham - Sutton	3.21	3.29	2.16	3.58	3.39	2.06
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Barnet - Aldershot	3.45	3.46	2	3.46	4.26	1.87
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Chesterfield - Bromley	1.73	3.62	4.46	1.91	4.16	3.36
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Dag & Red - Solihull Moors	2.24	3.36	2.99	2.62	3.72	2.44
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	FC Halifax - King?s Lynn	1.52	3.87	6.2	1.64	4.93	4.02
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Notts Co - Eastleigh	2.06	3.23	3.54	1.78	3.6	4.55
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Stockport - Maidenhead	1.36	4.56	8.26	1.37	5.62	6.51
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Wealdstone - Hartlepool	5.62	3.98	1.54	5.68	4.34	1.53
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Woking - Wrexham	3.11	3.16	2.27	2.94	2.74	2.82
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Yeovil - Boreham Wood	2.33	3.25	2.93	2.71	3.39	2.53

[Data]

Sorry, cut out the scores of earlier games with the above, reprinted and corrected;

 

league	date	KO	game	HG	AG	OP-H	OP-D	OP-A	predH	predD	predA
Premier League	09/04/2021	20:00	Fulham - Wolves	0	1	2.64	3.08	2.95	2.89	3.08	2.56
Premier League	10/04/2021	12:30	Manchester City - Leeds	1	2	1.38	5.23	7.89	1.26	8.45	6.81
Premier League	10/04/2021	15:00	Liverpool - Aston Villa	2	1	1.47	4.65	6.92	1.52	4.51	5.52
Premier League	10/04/2021	17:30	Crystal Palace - Chelsea	1	4	7.32	4.19	1.50	6.96	4.52	1.44
Premier League	11/04/2021	12:00	Burnley - Newcastle	1	2	2.27	3.33	3.31	2.06	3.17	3.87
Premier League	11/04/2021	14:05	West Ham - Leicester	3	2	3.18	3.23	2.39	3.21	3.27	2.26
Premier League	11/04/2021	16:30	Tottenham - Manchester Utd	1	3	2.94	3.51	2.4	2.79	3.36	2.48
Premier League	11/04/2021	19:00	Sheffield Utd - Arsenal	0	3	5.54	3.89	1.66	5.23	3.37	1.75
Premier League	12/04/2021	18:00	West Brom - Southampton	3	0	3.57	3.55	2.08	3.61	3.91	1.9
Premier League	12/04/2021	20:15	Brighton - Everton	0	0	2.15	3.44	3.51	2.54	2.77	3.28
Championship	09/04/2021	19:45	Watford - Reading	2	0	1.77	3.49	4.96	2.05	3.05	4.10
Championship	10/04/2021	12:30	Millwall - Swansea	0	3	3.21	3.00	2.44	3.09	3.16	2.38
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Barnsley - Middlesbrough	2	0	2.02	3.33	3.86	2.23	3.25	3.29
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Birmingham - Stoke	2	0	2.82	2.96	2.77	3.1	3.04	2.45
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Bournemouth - Coventry	4	1	1.63	3.80	5.67	1.81	3.44	4.59
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Bristol City - Nottingham	0	0	3.45	3.24	2.20	3.27	2.85	2.48
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Cardiff - Blackburn	2	2	2.55	3.19	2.88	2.33	3.15	3.20
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Derby - Norwich	0	1	5.41	4.08	1.61	4.7	3.57	1.76
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Huddersfield - Rotherham	0	0	2.48	3.21	2.95	2.46	3.12	3.00
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Preston - Brentford	0	5	4.17	3.49	1.89	4.28	3.19	1.95
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	QPR - Sheffield Wed	4	1	2.24	3.36	3.21	1.95	3.18	4.31
Championship	10/04/2021	15:00	Wycombe - Luton	1	3	3.41	3.31	2.18	3.58	3.19	2.14
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Accrington - AFC Wimbledon	1	5	2.12	3.39	3.35	1.97	3.46	3.81
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Crewe - Oxford Utd	0	6	2.39	3.34	2.88	2.67	2.97	2.87
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Doncaster - Wigan	1	4	2.17	3.29	3.33	1.91	3.38	4.18
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Fleetwood - Rochdale	1	0	2.03	3.26	3.77	1.74	3.41	5.18
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Gillingham - Shrewsbury	0	0	2.28	3.13	3.25	2.33	3.17	3.17
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Ipswich - MK Dons	0	0	2.58	3.13	2.78	2.59	3.29	2.70
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Lincoln - Blackpool	2	2	2.71	3.20	2.59	2.38	3.10	3.16
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Northampton - Bristol Rovers	1	1	2.87	3.04	2.58	2.49	3.54	2.66
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Plymouth - Hull	0	3	5.27	4.04	1.59	4.51	3.40	1.84
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Portsmouth - Burton	1	2	1.90	3.33	4.20	1.77	3.51	4.75
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Sunderland - Charlton	1	2	1.88	3.34	4.25	2.16	3.36	3.35
League One	10/04/2021	15:00	Swindon - Peterborough	0	3	4.91	3.57	1.72	4.13	4.00	1.76
League Two	09/04/2021	18:00	Mansfield - Newport	1	1	2.39	2.92	3.24	2.2	3.24	3.38
League Two	09/04/2021	19:00	Oldham - Colchester	5	2	2.58	3.26	2.68	2.26	3.24	3.23
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Barrow - Carlisle	2	2	3.12	3.05	2.38	3.12	3.12	2.39
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Bolton - Harrogate	2	1	1.84	3.53	4.18	2.07	3.62	3.33
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Bradford City - Grimsby	1	0	2.04	3.25	3.70	1.77	3.58	4.63
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Cambridge Utd - Exeter	1	4	2.54	3.15	2.80	2.9	3.06	2.57
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Cheltenham - Leyton Orient	1	0	1.81	3.40	4.53	1.78	3.72	4.35
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Port Vale - Morecambe	1	0	2.37	3.12	3.08	2.58	3.25	2.75
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Salford - Stevenage	2	1	2.14	2.97	3.81	1.92	3.33	4.17
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Scnuthorpe - Tranmere	0	0	3.56	3.17	2.12	3.07	3.30	2.32
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Southend - Crawley	0	0	2.48	3.08	2.93	2.74	2.96	2.80
League Two	10/04/2021	15:00	Walsall - Forest Green	2	1	3.08	2.98	2.45	2.89	3.33	2.41
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Altrincham - FC Halifax	0	1	3.03	3.24	2.27	2.87	3.31	2.44
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Boreham Wood - Wealdstone	3	1	1.40	4.41	7.23	1.52	4.22	6.03
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Bromley - Dag & Red	1	0	2.15	3.41	3.11	1.97	3.55	3.70
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Eastleigh - Woking	0	0	2.21	3.00	3.39	2.68	3.01	2.82
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	King?s Lynn - Chesterfield	1	2	5.79	4.13	1.51	4.71	3.83	1.70
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Maidenhead - Barnet	0	0	1.48	4.30	5.77	1.68	4.48	4.16
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Torquay - Weymouth	2	1	1.44	4.31	6.58	1.38	4.78	7.98
National League	10/04/2021	15:00	Wrexham - Stockport	0	3	3.81	3.26	1.96	3.72	3.19	2.09
National League	10/04/2021	17:20	Hartlepool - Notts Co	2	0	2.31	3.15	3.03	2.1	3.64	3.23
Championship	13/04/2021	17:30	Huddersfield - Bournemouth	1	2	4.55	3.62	1.79	3.87	3.38	1.98
Championship	13/04/2021	18:00	Sheffield Wed - Swansea	0	2	2.84	3.15	2.6	3.27	3.31	2.22
Championship	13/04/2021	19:00	Rotherham - QPR	3	1	2.51	3.51	2.71	2.78	3.87	2.27
League One	13/04/2021	18:00	Crewe - Portsmouth	0	0	3.16	3.30	2.23	2.55	3.25	2.77
League One	13/04/2021	18:00	Wigan - Sunderland	2	1	4.40	3.47	1.81	4.76	3.86	1.69
League One	13/04/2021	18:30	AFC Wimbledon - Ipswich	3	0	2.93	3.00	2.55	3.37	3.06	2.29
League One	13/04/2021	19:00	Blackpool - Accrington	0	0	1.72	3.75	4.62	1.9	3.42	4.14
League One	13/04/2021	19:00	Doncaster - Burton	0	3	2.42	3.19	2.94	2.23	3.22	3.32
League One	13/04/2021	19:00	Lincoln - MK Dons	4	0	2.31	3.45	2.9	2.35	3.58	2.82
League One	13/04/2021	19:00	Oxford Utd - Shrewsbury	4	1	1.92	3.28	4.14	1.96	3.18	4.24
League One	13/04/2021	19:00	Rochdale - Swindon	2	1	2.33	3.17	3.11	2.41	3.48	2.8
League Two	13/04/2021	18:30	Morecambe - Scnuthorpe	4	1	1.63	3.70	5.48	2.19	3.3	3.32
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Barrow - Exeter	2	1	3.06	3.21	2.34	3.6	2.93	2.27
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Bradford City - Crawley	0	2	2.02	3.42	3.57	2.18	3.13	3.54
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Harrogate - Leyton Orient	2	2	2.27	3.11	3.28	2.12	3.24	3.58
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Newport - Carlisle	0	0	2.71	2.98	2.76	2.47	3.46	2.73
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Salford - Bolton	0	1	2.64	2.98	2.83	2.41	3.14	3.05
League Two	13/04/2021	19:00	Walsall - Tranmere	1	0	3.06	3.10	2.39	3.42	2.99	2.31
National League	13/04/2021	19:00	Dag & Red - Eastleigh	2	0	2.39	3.05	2.98	2.37	3.09	3.18
National League	13/04/2021	19:00	FC Halifax - Wrexham	0	4	2.21	3.24	3.13	2.3	2.97	3.45
National League	13/04/2021	19:00	Solihull Moors - Notts Co	2	1	2.98	3.17	2.33	2.99	3.07	2.5
National League	13/04/2021	19:00	Stockport - King?s Lynn	4	0	1.27	5.27	10.01	1.48	4.48	6.24
National League	13/04/2021	19:00	Sutton - Torquay	0	1	2.13	3.05	3.52	2.24	3.86	2.82
National League	13/04/2021	19:45	Chesterfield - Boreham Wood	0	0	2.13	3.15	3.41	2.08	4.02	3.02
National League	13/04/2021	19:45	Weymouth - Aldershot	0	3	3.68	3.44	1.93	3.75	3.24	2.06
National League	13/04/2021	19:45	Woking - Bromley	3	4	3.14	3.29	2.19	2.63	3.24	2.69
Premier League	16/04/2021	20:00	Everton - Tottenham			3.32	3.37	2.25	2.63	3.17	2.74
Premier League	17/04/2021	12:30	Newcastle - West Ham			3.79	3.45	2.04	3.93	3.09	2.08
Premier League	17/04/2021	20:15	Wolves - Sheffield Utd			1.68	3.58	5.97	1.81	3.45	4.62
Premier League	18/04/2021	13:30	Arsenal - Fulham			1.75	3.70	4.98	2.03	3.46	3.58
Premier League	18/04/2021	16:00	Manchester Utd - Burnley			1.35	5.11	9.49	1.51	3.88	7.27
Premier League	19/04/2021	20:00	Leeds - Liverpool			4.63	4.23	1.69	3.98	3.63	1.88
Championship	16/04/2021	18:00	Blackburn - Derby			2.19	3.25	3.42	2.2	3.13	3.5
Championship	16/04/2021	18:00	Reading - Cardiff			2.19	3.20	3.47	2.6	2.79	3.16
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Brentford - Millwall			1.59	3.77	6.13	1.76	3.33	5.21
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Luton - Watford			4.52	3.49	1.82	4.76	3.34	1.82
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Middlesbrough - QPR			2.05	3.42	3.62	2.26	3.77	2.85
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Nottingham - Huddersfield			2.08	3.21	3.77	1.97	3.87	3.4
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Sheffield Wed - Bristol City			2.02	3.35	3.8	2.14	3.37	3.38
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Stoke - Preston			2.13	3.13	3.73	2.13	2.73	4.44
Championship	17/04/2021	12:30	Swansea - Wycombe			1.50	3.94	7.37	1.5	4.17	6.47
Championship	17/04/2021	20:00	Norwich - Bournemouth			1.90	3.61	3.93	1.93	3.51	3.88
Championship	18/04/2021	12:00	Rotherham - Birmingham			2.67	3.20	2.7	2.6	2.7	3.27
Championship	18/04/2021	15:00	Coventry - Barnsley			3.63	3.24	2.12	3.31	3.13	2.28
League One	16/04/2021	19:45	Peterborough - Northampton			1.47	4.17	6.52	1.78	3.06	5.87
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Blackpool - Sunderland			2.75	3.10	2.62	2.71	3.47	2.48
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Bristol Rovers - Lincoln			2.82	3.32	2.42	3.36	3.62	2.06
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Burton - Plymouth			2.03	3.41	3.55	2.09	3.79	3.16
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Charlton - Ipswich			2.10	3.19	3.57	2.29	3.07	3.37
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Hull - Fleetwood			1.55	3.82	6.12	1.7	3.54	5.28
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	MK Dons - Portsmouth			2.85	3.15	2.5	2.62	3.81	2.4
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Rochdale - Accrington			2.62	3.34	2.58	2.67	3.94	2.31
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Shrewsbury - Doncaster			2.26	3.16	3.22	2.67	2.89	2.94
League One	17/04/2021	12:30	Wigan - Crewe			2.81	3.27	2.45	3.39	3.16	2.23
League One	17/04/2021	17:30	AFC Wimbledon - Swindon			2.20	3.29	3.22	2.07	3.14	3.86
League One	17/04/2021	17:30	Oxford Utd - Gillingham			2.06	3.39	3.49	2.1	3.18	3.7
League Two	16/04/2021	18:30	Crawley - Cheltenham			3.62	3.40	1.98	3.03	3.14	2.43
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Carlisle - Port Vale			2.26	3.18	3.2	2.27	3.32	3.13
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Exeter - Southend			1.71	3.50	5.01	1.67	3.35	6.1
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Forest Green - Scnuthorpe			1.91	3.30	4.09	2.05	3.06	4.07
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Grimsby - Bolton			3.56	3.31	2.05	4.65	3.49	1.79
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Harrogate - Bradford City			2.31	3.20	3.08	2.42	3.01	3.17
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Leyton Orient - Barrow			2.51	3.07	2.88	2.41	2.83	3.42
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Morecambe - Oldham			1.96	3.51	3.6	1.97	3.8	3.46
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Newport - Cambridge Utd			2.30	3.04	3.25	2.31	3.32	3.07
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Stevenage - Mansfield			2.70	2.96	2.74	2.79	3.22	2.55
League Two	17/04/2021	12:30	Tranmere - Salford			2.51	3.00	2.95	2.83	3.21	2.53
League Two	17/04/2021	17:30	Colchester - Walsall			2.30	3.10	3.18	2.47	3.1	3
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Altrincham - Sutton			3.21	3.29	2.16	3.58	3.39	2.06
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Barnet - Aldershot			3.45	3.46	2	3.46	4.26	1.87
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Chesterfield - Bromley			1.73	3.62	4.46	1.91	4.16	3.36
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Dag & Red - Solihull Moors			2.24	3.36	2.99	2.62	3.72	2.44
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	FC Halifax - King?s Lynn			1.52	3.87	6.2	1.64	4.93	4.02
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Notts Co - Eastleigh			2.06	3.23	3.54	1.78	3.6	4.55
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Stockport - Maidenhead			1.36	4.56	8.26	1.37	5.62	6.51
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Wealdstone - Hartlepool			5.62	3.98	1.54	5.68	4.34	1.53
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Woking - Wrexham			3.11	3.16	2.27	2.94	2.74	2.82
National League	17/04/2021	12:30	Yeovil - Boreham Wood			2.33	3.25	2.93	2.71	3.39	2.53

[harry_rag]

Very interesting though I'll need to read it again to digest it better. That's a huge swathe of data to try and process in the format displayed; it would be lovely if you could show it highlighting the prices that exceed the predicted odds by say 10%!

My instinctive reaction is that it's not too surprising (for anyone who reads the thoughts of Kevin Pullein) that there are better means of predicting future results than past results. It's the same argument that supports the use of expected goals data over actual goals. There are so few goals in a game of football that the result of a game owes far more to luck than most people ever take account of. The use of expected goals takes into account how much luck (good or bad) has played a part in a teams results. The pre game odds for a match will often be a more accurate indicator of what should have happened than the result, e.g. 1/8 favourite loses 1-0 despite dominating possessions, shots, expected goals etc. They may have hit the woodwork 6 times while the victors scored from their only shot on target.

Hopefully you've found a way of achieving a long term edge. I'm all for anything that involves using bookies prices against them (e.g. selling on the spreads).

[Data]

If reciprocal of bookie odds against reciprocal of the computed odds shows an edge of 10% or above. Gives 65 bets from 1541 games showing 27.78 profit at 1pt level stakes.

No qualifiers from this weekends games. One qualifier from the midweek games in the list I presented which was an away bet on Morecambe v Scnuthorpe, a resounding loss with the home side winning 4-1.
OTOH last weekend also threw up a single bet, Wealdstone v Barnet, home win @ 2.59 who obliged with a 5-1 victory.

[Data]

Still looking at this idea I dug a little deeper.
ELO has to begin somewhere, a start point where each team's ratings are equal, from then forward the ratings evolve in line with results (or in this case the bookmaker odds). So I created the run from 2015-16 season and carried over the ratings from season to season allowing the ratings plenty of time to mature.
Examining the results from English Premier through to National League and using criteria which dictates . . .
If home team odds are <= away team odds, bet on home win, else bet away win.
Seasons 2021-22 & 2022-23 using the above trigger gave a 50.3% success when applied to bookies odds (B365 as per football-data)
The same set of games when applying to my ELO predicted odds gave a 49.2% success rate. Given that bookie odds are one of the most accurate result predictors, to be just 1.1% below that threshold I find encouraging.

With the fact that bookie odds are very hard to beat when looking at the entire fixture list, I turned my attention to where these ELO odds differed most significantly from the book.
There was little encouragement when looking at the games where ELO odds for a home win were much shorter than B365, at the other end however where ELO home odds were far higher did hit on enough good away returns to turn a decent profit. Very few bets however and a poor strike rate - still, a profit nevertheless. However, I'm always wary of profits from low strike rates.
Bookie odds will move subject to where the money is going, so can we assume that where the odds offered are well below where ELO suggests they should be?
Using the above situation did make a small gain over the past two seasons, although mainly odds-on it displays a pleasingly high strike rate, so may be worth following. The triggers discussed above give the following for this weekend. (B365 odds as per Football-data)
 

Chelsea - Brentford			1.64	4.12	5.3	home bet
Arsenal - Sheffield United			1.13	9.52	21.2	home bet
Southampton - Birmingham			1.59	4.1	5.41	home bet
Leeds - Huddersfield			1.35	5.08	8.42	home bet
Sunderland - Norwich			2.07	3.62	3.37	home bet
Middlesbrough - Stoke			1.76	3.82	4.4	home bet
Ipswich - Plymouth			1.38	5.15	7.14	home bet
Cardiff - Preston			2.03	3.39	3.72	home bet
Blackpool - Peterboro			2.24	3.34	3.08	home bet
Stockport - Tranmere			1.32	5.01	8.68	home bet
Mansfield - Walsall			1.49	4.28	5.91	home bet
Gillingham - Newport County			1.88	3.47	3.94	home bet
Forest Green - Crawley Town			2.15	3.56	3.09	home bet
Doncaster - Grimsby			2.2	3.45	3.07	home bet
Barrow - Salford			1.93	3.52	3.7	home bet
Accrington - Colchester			2.07	3.54	3.27	home bet
Gateshead - Dag and Red			1.46	4.54	5.53	home bet
Liverpool - Nott'm Forest			1.27	6.29	10.22	home bet
Aston Villa - Luton			1.28	6.1	10.65	home bet
Morecambe - Wrexham			2.34	3.73	2.65		away win

[Data]

Apologies, some of the above fixture list got massively screwed up somewhere along the cut / paste / transfer.