Jump to content
Announcements
*** Punchestown Festival Competition: Well done to 1st. Craig Bluenose, 2nd. Lee Grays & 3rd. Carole Dawney ***
** May Poker League Result : 1st McG, 2nd muttley, 3rd GirlyWirly **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st CertiF, 2nd PercyP, 3rd adamross, 4th Joelavfc, 5th Chris P **
** May Naps Competition Result: 1st Internetmails, 2nd Rug, 3rd Rolandcooper, 4th Adamross. KO Cup Winner: Xtc12, Most Winners: Mickyftm32 **

Racing Chat - Wednesday 14th April


Recommended Posts

Going to look into changing my staking approach over the next couple of days as others have suggested but for tomorrow will stay the same as need more time. Thank you for the suggestions and information though. 

1pt e/w (2pts total)

1020 Senonnes-Pouance 

French Charmer 11/1 e/w

 

3pt win single

1340 Beverley

Tippy Toes 15/8

 

5pts staked total.

 

Will be a few more up in the morning.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cannotbebeat said:

1.15 Newmarket Beautiful Sunshine 7/5

3.25 Beverly Northern Express 9/4

4.40 Kempton Cosmos Raj 4/1

Good luck all CNBB.

I'm still debating Beautiful Sunshine. Same trainer and jockey as my winner yesterday and I like the look of it but not sure if the money has come for it just because of what I mentioned regarding the jockey and trainer. I already have one debutant in my selections so not sure I can risk two but I'll have a look at the price later. Good luck today 👍🏼

Link to post
Share on other sites

All prices Bet365:

1.30 Cheltenham - 1pt win Nickelsonthedime @ 16/1

Outsider of a four-runner field but I think is a shade overpriced based on a couple of sub par efforts when last seen. Has been given a break and wind surgery since and if returning to the form of its first two hurdling starts I think this is a 130-rated animal at least. Shapes as if a stiff 2m4f will be spot on and I think he's capable of getting involved here even if the price suggests otherwise. 

1.50 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Dazzling Dan @ 9/1

Returns this year almost a stone lighter than when he reappeared last season and down the weights looks to hold solid claims here. Never really hit the heights last summer but still ran with credit on several occasions and is now dangerously well handicapped. Has had a wind op, conditions suit, can go well fresh and is likely to race fairly handily so looks to have a big chance.

2.05 Cheltenham - 2pts win Up The Straight @ 6/1

Looked a sure fire winner at Sandown last time but stopped up the run-in on desperate ground. These conditions will suit much better and there's clearly scope off this mark based on that run and its effort behind Umbrigado off level weights earlier in the season (beaten around 3 lengths with that one now rated 15lbs higher than what Up The Straight runs off here). Has been given a break to get over that last run and I think a big effort is on the cards.

2.25 Newmarket - 1pt win Tactical @ 7/1

If you ignore this one's two runs on soft ground last season it did very little wrong and the form stacks up to give it a solid chance on reappearance here. Sees out 6f strongly and is bred to get 7f so that should be okay and I can easily forgive its poor efforts when you consider Toronado's progeny have a terrible record on deep ground. This should suit better and I think has solid claims.

2.40 Cheltenham - 1pt win Quinta Do Mar @ 13/2

On its defeat to Here Comes McCoy you'd argue that he's unlikely to reverse that form around but I think he just got outgunned by that one's speed late on at Market Rasen that day and should find this extra distance on a stiffer track more to his liking. Is bred to stay well but has the speed to lie up with these and I think his finishing effort can be sufficient this afternoon with scope off this mark based on its defeat of a subsequent winner two starts back. 

3.35 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Mamba Wamba @ 28/1

Has a bit to find but wasn't a million miles behind Saffron Beach here when last seen and that was a good effort. Looking at her action I'd suggest she wouldn't want soft ground particularly either so this better ground can suit and the yard are in decent form. 7f is clearly her trip for now (dam stayed middle distances) so I can see her outrunning her price today.

3.50 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w No Comment @ 25/1

Disappointed in the Pertemps but was left poorly placed when they quickened for home and was soon eased down when he had no chance, exaggerating the losing margin. Definitely think there's a race in him and he should find this a bit easier. Will need to improve for that but isn't a forlorn hope in calmer waters.

4.25 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Beau De Brizais @ 12/1

The Mighty Don has solid claims in this I think but at the prices I quite like Beau De Brizais who has perfect conditions and I think is likely to go forward, jump well and put pressure on the others. The ground was too soft when last seen and this should suit better. His mark looks okay and I think will be bang there for a long way here, and might just be able to outstay them. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of competitive racing at Cheltenham today.  Not trying on the flat yet until it settles down.  Might try my nap on an outsider though with one of my favourite jockeys aboard later.  Not sure when Tom Marquand will return but I like William Buick, James  Doyle and a few others

1.30 I cant back Favoir at odds on.  I prefer it at 2 miles and it had a hard race at odds of 1/7 last time.  Don't want to oppose it either.

3.15 Eagle Hill looks a worthy favourite.  Have had a £ win at 5.2 = £12.35 profit if if it wins

5.00 Elham Valley looks like another decent favourite.  Have had a £4 win at 3.65 = £10.39 profit if it wins

Good luck to all today

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Going to look into changing my staking approach over the next couple of days as others have suggested but for tomorrow will stay the same as need more time. Thank you for the suggestions and information though. 

1pt e/w (2pts total)

1020 Senonnes-Pouance 

French Charmer 11/1 e/w

 

3pt win single

1340 Beverley

Tippy Toes 15/8

 

5pts staked total.

 

Will be a few more up in the morning.

No good on the French one, was backed into 3/1 but ran no race. Have to say I wasn't impressed with the jockey at all, needed to put the horse in the race.

Anyway, two more to add today....

1600 Beverley Jawwaal 4/1 win & Nibras Again 7/1 e/w (I don't like backing two in the same race and was stuck between the two Midgley runners at a price but I decided to go with Nibras. You watch Saluti go and win now. I do think Jawwaal is the one to beat though).

1645 Newmarket Mohaafeth 2/1 (price taken last night but wasn't sure if I was keeping the bet but I've decided I am).

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Barnes1882 said:

No good on the French one, was backed into 3/1 but ran no race. Have to say I wasn't impressed with the jockey at all, needed to put the horse in the race.

Anyway, two more to add today....

1600 Beverley Jawwaal 4/1 win & Nibras Again 7/1 e/w (I don't like backing two in the same race and was stuck between the two Midgley runners at a price but I decided to go with Nibras. You watch Saluti go and win now. I do think Jawwaal is the one to beat though).

1645 Newmarket Mohaafeth 2/1 (price taken last night but wasn't sure if I was keeping the bet but I've decided I am).

at least u had great value on french.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

No good on the French one, was backed into 3/1 but ran no race. Have to say I wasn't impressed with the jockey at all, needed to put the horse in the race.

Anyway, two more to add today....

1600 Beverley Jawwaal 4/1 win & Nibras Again 7/1 e/w (I don't like backing two in the same race and was stuck between the two Midgley runners at a price but I decided to go with Nibras. You watch Saluti go and win now. I do think Jawwaal is the one to beat though).

1645 Newmarket Mohaafeth 2/1 (price taken last night but wasn't sure if I was keeping the bet but I've decided I am).

5pts staked between the first two I put up which returned nothing.

Then 1.5pt win on Jawwaal lost and Nibras e/w 7/1 returned enough to cover both stakes. 

Mohaafeth I had 5pts on as was info and returned 15pts. 

End the day 5pts up but also had a 2.5pt double on 1415 Vintage Clarets & 2015 Gunnerside which if the 2nd horse wins will return 16pts. 

So currently 5pts up and if the double lands will end the day 18.5pts up but if it loses will end the day 2.5pts in profit.

No pts will be advised from tomorrow onwards. Same stakes for 90% of my selections unless I get info like today and I'm told to have a good go. Have a max bet coming Friday for example which is info and I'll state that next to the bet. 

Again, thank you for all the help with staking plans etc, it hasn't gone unnoticed and I certainly won't be ignoring it. I'm in this for the long run so I'm more than happy to be patient.

Hope you've all had a profitable day.  

Edited by Barnes1882
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry for talking out of my wallet, no one likes this shite \ rant so TL;DR 0/3 move on:

 

8 hours ago, gbettle said:

15:15 Cheltenham    Eaglehill            4.33
16:25 Cheltenham    Singlefarmpayment    4.75
19:45 Kempton        Badger Berry        5.5

 

2021-04-14 patent.jpg

What a f*cking joke ... 

 

15:15 Cheltenham 5 runners EagleHill PU 5/2 SP

Didn't jump with fluency, tracked leaders, dropped to last after 3rd, niggled along briefly after 8th, pulled up quickly after 11th (jockey said gelding was never travelling; vet said a post-race examination failed to reveal any significant abnormalities other than gelding had a minor overreach on its right-fore) (op 2/1)

 

16:25 Cheltenham 9 ran Singlefarmpayment 4th 7/2f (fav for f*ck all) 

Took keen hold, held up in rear, headway after 4 out, cajoled along before 2 out, ridden and weakened approaching last (op 18/5)

 

19:45 Kempton 12 ran Badger Berry 9th 5/1f (Another FAVOURITE, and you could only manage 9th?!)

 

Edited by gbettle
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

5pts staked between the first two I put up which returned nothing.

Then 1.5pt win on Jawwaal lost and Nibras e/w 7/1 returned enough to cover both stakes. 

Mohaafeth I had 5pts on as was info and returned 15pts. 

End the day 5pts up but also had a 2.5pt double on 1415 Vintage Clarets & 2015 Gunnerside which if the 2nd horse wins will return 16pts. 

So currently 5pts up and if the double lands will end the day 18.5pts up but if it loses will end the day 2.5pts in profit.

No pts will be advised from tomorrow onwards. Same stakes for 90% of my selections unless I get info like today and I'm told to have a good go. Have a max bet coming Friday for example which is info and I'll state that next to the bet. 

Again, thank you for all the help with staking plans etc, it hasn't gone unnoticed and I certainly won't be ignoring it. I'm in this for the long run so I'm more than happy to be patient.

Hope you've all had a profitable day.  

End the day 2.5pts up. Gunnerside could only manage 2nd. Very frustrating but profit is profit. 

Edited by Barnes1882
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, gbettle said:

Sorry for talking out of my wallet, no one likes this shite \ rant so TL;DR 0/3 move on:

 

What a f*cking joke ... 

 

15:15 Cheltenham 5 runners EagleHill PU 5/2 SP

Didn't jump with fluency, tracked leaders, dropped to last after 3rd, niggled along briefly after 8th, pulled up quickly after 11th (jockey said gelding was never travelling; vet said a post-race examination failed to reveal any significant abnormalities other than gelding had a minor overreach on its right-fore) (op 2/1)

 

16:25 Cheltenham 9 ran Singlefarmpayment 4th 7/2f (fav for f*ck all) 

Took keen hold, held up in rear, headway after 4 out, cajoled along before 2 out, ridden and weakened approaching last (op 18/5)

 

19:45 Kempton 12 ran Badger Berry 9th 5/1f (Another FAVOURITE, and you could only manage 9th?!)

 

Sorrry you had a bad day; I backed Eaglehill as well.  I too find it very annoying when horses with good recent form seem to run like cart horses.  It shouldn't be like a lottery as to which horse will run to form when they turn up at a racecourse but so often this is the case.   Its price was rock solid overnight and in the morning.  It was sent of 5/2 Fav which was shorter than 11/4 and even 7/2 this morning.  A big run was expected but it just flopped.  I would love to have a formula of how to know when a horse will run true to form or run badly but alas I can't find one.  Hopefully tomorrow will be a better day for you

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Lots of competitive racing at Cheltenham today.  Not trying on the flat yet until it settles down.  Might try my nap on an outsider though with one of my favourite jockeys aboard later.  Not sure when Tom Marquand will return but I like William Buick, James  Doyle and a few others

1.30 I cant back Favoir at odds on.  I prefer it at 2 miles and it had a hard race at odds of 1/7 last time.  Don't want to oppose it either.

3.15 Eagle Hill looks a worthy favourite.  Have had a £ win at 5.2 = £12.35 profit if if it wins

5.00 Elham Valley looks like another decent favourite.  Have had a £4 win at 3.65 = £10.39 profit if it wins

Good luck to all today

 

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Lots of competitive racing at Cheltenham today.  Not trying on the flat yet until it settles down.  Might try my nap on an outsider though with one of my favourite jockeys aboard later.  Not sure when Tom Marquand will return but I like William Buick, James  Doyle and a few others

1.30 I cant back Favoir at odds on.  I prefer it at 2 miles and it had a hard race at odds of 1/7 last time.  Don't want to oppose it either.

3.15 Eagle Hill looks a worthy favourite.  Have had a £ win at 5.2 = £12.35 profit if if it wins

5.00 Elham Valley looks like another decent favourite.  Have had a £4 win at 3.65 = £10.39 profit if it wins

Good luck to all today

RESULTS UPDATE

Two losers and a couple of outsiders lost so a £8 loss today.  My balance is now £560.22 (Bank £500)

Let's hope that Cheltenham is kinder to me tomorrow

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the kind words all. Wow, what a difference a day makes.

And how ironic a paper-trial system I'm running picked the BSP favourite, "Unapologetic" LOL.

In future, I must re-consider betting much closer to the off.

What a difference BSP vs `industry` SP - their books were nearly 20% different for the 19:45 market:

 

 

2021-04-14 1945 Kempton.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

It is almost impossible to make a profit at SP, taking early prices with BOG often produces a better return than BSP.

make the most of bog until bookie stops it ( or bans u)  with the early price - if it is 10-1 or under. If over 10-1, it is more likely better backing on exchnage as the overround is a lot shorter (make sure ur on basic plan for betfair exchange 2%). 25-1s are often 40 or 50 on exchange.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...