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La Liga Predictions > Apr 18th


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Real Madrid will be without many important players on Sunday, which would give Getafe confidence, but the home team is in a disappointing form, which means that it is difficult to support it. We expect a tough game this weekend, but we believe the champions will do enough to secure another three points.
GETAFE vs REAL MADRID @@ REAL MADRID, odds 1.75

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Real Betis

Real Betis was in a very good state some time ago, but in the last 4 rounds with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, his performance is not stable. At present, they are temporarily ranked 6th in the standings, but only 1 point ahead of 7th. This game needs to go all out.

 

Valencia

Valencia's strength has continued to decline in these 2 seasons, and many key players have left the club. This season they are only in the downstream position, and the away performance is very poor, currently in a 4-game losing streak away.

 

Verdict:

There is a big gap between the strengths of the two sides, and the last 3 times they have encountered Valencia, Betis scored 2 wins and 1 loss. The 1X2 first odd is 1.91-3.60-3.75, which means support the home team. Betis would win this game.

 

Real Betis VS Valencia

Pick: Real Betis

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Home

Away

h%

d%

a%

jwb1%

RawG

aTG1m

HpC

ApC

TotC

Osasuna

Elche

44.2%

30.0%

25.8%

26.3%

1.90

2.16

3.31

3.80

7.11

Real Sociedad

Sevilla

36.2%

27.6%

36.2%

22.2%

2.27

2.39

4.97

3.43

8.40

Deportivo Alaves

Huesca

27.8%

27.2%

45.0%

25.1%

2.23

2.37

4.24

4.50

8.74

Atletico Madrid

Eibar

63.5%

23.0%

13.5%

28.8%

2.17

2.33

4.20

5.21

9.42

Real Betis

Valencia

45.8%

23.5%

30.7%

23.0%

2.86

2.78

5.88

4.37

10.25

Cadiz

Celta Vigo

29.9%

25.7%

44.5%

24.0%

2.47

2.53

4.05

4.14

8.19

Getafe

Real Madrid

14.8%

25.8%

59.4%

29.6%

1.96

2.19

3.81

5.64

9.45

Levante

Villarreal

30.2%

23.6%

46.2%

23.2%

2.82

2.75

4.43

4.51

8.95

* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)

Sevilla dnb @2.10 in tricky away fixture against strong Sociedad team normaly would not be enough for a bet, but in current circumstances it seems like a good choice. Hosts have won just 3 points in last 4 games, top 4 finish is basically out of the reach, they pretty much have to win this game to stand any chance, but even then chances would be just theoretical. They won the cup couple of weeks ago, but just 1 league win in last 6 cost a lot and they can pretty much play for fun for the remainder of the season. Sevilla have better team news here and also still some hopes in title fight, CL spot almos assured especially if they avoid defeat today. Their form is fine with 4 wins in last 5, performance against leaders Atletico couple of weeks ago was superb and they should probably small favs today. Huesca dnb @2.08 also looks fine, they do have a couple of imp missings, but also clearly performed better than Alaves throughout this season, form is fine, confidence is up while struggling hosts failed to win in last 8 and may look at this as a must win game even with 8 rounds to go, which, if happens, would suit Huesca perfectly. Similar to game in San Sebastian, imo visitors should be favourites here. Importance of this game is huge, so goals cant look attractive by default, still over 2 @1.93 is good enough considering we expect hosts to be more open than usual in first 60-65 mins. Cadiz-Celta over 2.25 @2.00 is another recommendation, there is that danger that both can be happy with a draw, but the way both teams, especially Celta, have been playing lately, it is difficult to imagine this to be low on entertainment. Both should create enough to score, price on visitors (who are underrated by model) is also close to the level we would consider fine for shot,  -1/4 @1.93 would do it, not miles away but unlikely to get there. Weather is fine for all games, dry with 14-15 degrees in Basque and sunny, 20ish in Cadiz.

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Wrong division and date range but here will do rather than start a new thread! Very little on today, making Almeria v Espanyol a "big game". Posted the following in my "value bets" thread:

"Almeria v Espanyol: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 and 10 on <45 booking points at 6/4 with Sky Bet"

I've also had 8 points on a red card at 9/2 with Hills, who are oddly shortest price about all the various booking points lines but longest about a red card. Only 3 firms have priced up the cards markets and you could back >45 at 5/6 and <50 at 6/4 at one point. Whilst the gap has closed, I still think 6/4 for <45 is a bit too big.

Ref has apparently only started doing matches at this level this season and, from 17 games, 10 have seen between 4 and 6 cards and 9 went under 45 points. 3 of the 8 that went over were ones where a red card was shown (he's shown 2 twice and 1 once).

 

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I've done 4-6 cards at 23/20 in the other game, between Leganes and Ponferradina.

At 42-46, the game's outside my normal area of focus (those where the spread price is at least 45 to sell) but the ref stats have him as a solid "middler" so I'm happy enough to play it.

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