Racing Chat - Monday April 12th

[gbettle]

9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

 

No.

You would need to calculate the expected chance of each selection from the odds, then add these up to calculate the expected number of winners and then compare this to the actual number of winners.

Yup, indeed. Check out the examples at the bottom of the url I posted, written by Peter Marko; they all begin with, "Average Odds: x"

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Sorry mate, been very busy and only just read this properly. 

Will explain how I do my pts staking later on but I'm always open to suggestions and not stubborn enough to ignore good advice so will definitely have a rethink. 

Basically if I start with a pot of say £100 as I did. I staked £5 per pt as that gave me 20pts and I was confident I wouldn't lose 20pts. Then when I hit £200 I went to £10 stakes per pt. But then I stopped upping my stakes as I didn't feel comfortable staking more than that. I work on a system of 1-3pts. 1pt being a normal selection I like, 2pts confident and 3pts max but when I get info you might see I stake 4 or 5pts if it's from a good place. 

I need to have a rethink about it all to be honest. I'm taking advantage of a hot spell at the moment and putting more pts on selections but understand that it is far from a sensible approach. 

So basically my stakes were £10 and I've gone off track a little bit. So you suggest upping my stakes to say £11 this week and seeing how I go? At what point would I then move to £12? I'm a teacher (split between Maths and Sport) so love numbers etc hence enjoying studying racing but always open to good advice. 

Appreciate it. 

By way of example all I was saying was that if you had say a betting bank balance the week before of £1,000 and this grew to £1,100 during the next week then just amend the value per point from £10 to £11 for the next week or other suitable time period.  If after that time the balance now grew to £1,200 then amend the value per point to £12 etc.etc. Some people would then say that if the balance dropped from say £1200 to £1000 then reduce the value per per point back to £10 until such time that it increases once more.

I think that Phil Bull used to have a maximum of a three times a stake value when he really fancied a horse's chance.  However, he was firmly of the opinion that if one's betting cannot produce a profit using level stakes then no amount of jiggery pokery would make it so.  People used to send him all kinds of staking methods declaring that increasing stakes would be profitable.  All he used to do was rearrange the order of the winning bets so as to disprove their theories.

I'm not so sure that one is better off by bumping up the number of points when one feels confident about selections.  Just look at what happened today with First Class Return it came 4th at 8/11 favourite.  The market seemed to imply that it couldn't get beat.  Good luck to you if you are brave enough to put 4 to 5 points on a horse where you feel confident about information received from a reliable source.  You may well be receiving details and feel greatly reassured that the horse is fully fit and a big run is expected.  However, what you can never know is information about all the other horses in the race and whether one of them is primed for a big run also.

It's up to you how you proceed and I wish you all the best of luck whatever you do.  I was particularly pleased to see that you didn't try to put up any other horses today when things were not going well.  There can't be too many good things to back each day can there?  I presume that for the moment at least you are getting the benefit of Best Odds Guaranteed.  This is great while it lasts ?

 

 

 

 

[Hotspur88]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

By way of example all I was saying was that if you had say a betting bank balance the week before of £1,000 and this grew to £1,100 during the next week then just amend the value per point from £10 to £11 for the next week or other suitable time period.  If after that time the balance now grew to £1,200 then amend the value per point to £12 etc.etc. Some people would then say that if the balance dropped from say £1200 to £1000 then reduce the value per per point back to £10 until such time that it increases once more.

I think that Phil Bull used to have a maximum of a three times a stake value when he really fancied a horse's chance.  However, he was firmly of the opinion that if one's betting cannot produce a profit using level stakes then no amount of jiggery pokery would make it so.  People used to send him all kinds of staking methods declaring that increasing stakes would be profitable.  All he used to do was rearrange the order of the winning bets so as to disprove their theories.

I'm not so sure that one is better off by bumping up the number of points when one feels confident about selections.  Just look at what happened today with First Class Return it came 4th at 8/11 favourite.  The market seemed to imply that it couldn't get beat.  Good luck to you if you are brave enough to put 4 to 5 points on a horse where you feel confident about information received from a reliable source.  You may well be receiving details and feel greatly reassured that the horse is fully fit and a big run is expected.  However, what you can never know is information about all the other horses in the race and whether one of them is primed for a big run also.

It's up to you how you proceed and I wish you all the best of luck whatever you do.  I was particularly pleased to see that you didn't try to put up any other horses today when things were not going well.  There can't be too many good things to back each day can there?  I presume that for the moment at least you are getting the benefit of Best Odds Guaranteed.  This is great while it lasts ?

 

 

 

 

I appreciate your help and opinion, certainly has made me think. I feel that with a bank of £1000 I am happy to stake £15 on my selections to start with. I will then try what you've mentioned where if I get to £1100 I will up it to £16 etc...

Will start doing this from tomorrow so when my selections are put up, instead of pts you will just see my selections and then my running bank total and end of day bank total.

Really do appreciate the help, thank you and hope you have a profitable day. 

I only have two selections today, think there will be two more late morning but that will be it. 

Best of luck.

[Hotspur88]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

By way of example all I was saying was that if you had say a betting bank balance the week before of £1,000 and this grew to £1,100 during the next week then just amend the value per point from £10 to £11 for the next week or other suitable time period.  If after that time the balance now grew to £1,200 then amend the value per point to £12 etc.etc. Some people would then say that if the balance dropped from say £1200 to £1000 then reduce the value per per point back to £10 until such time that it increases once more.

I think that Phil Bull used to have a maximum of a three times a stake value when he really fancied a horse's chance.  However, he was firmly of the opinion that if one's betting cannot produce a profit using level stakes then no amount of jiggery pokery would make it so.  People used to send him all kinds of staking methods declaring that increasing stakes would be profitable.  All he used to do was rearrange the order of the winning bets so as to disprove their theories.

I'm not so sure that one is better off by bumping up the number of points when one feels confident about selections.  Just look at what happened today with First Class Return it came 4th at 8/11 favourite.  The market seemed to imply that it couldn't get beat.  Good luck to you if you are brave enough to put 4 to 5 points on a horse where you feel confident about information received from a reliable source.  You may well be receiving details and feel greatly reassured that the horse is fully fit and a big run is expected.  However, what you can never know is information about all the other horses in the race and whether one of them is primed for a big run also.

It's up to you how you proceed and I wish you all the best of luck whatever you do.  I was particularly pleased to see that you didn't try to put up any other horses today when things were not going well.  There can't be too many good things to back each day can there?  I presume that for the moment at least you are getting the benefit of Best Odds Guaranteed.  This is great while it lasts ?

 

 

 

 

Ps I've lost BOG twice on my two other accounts due to my winnings and now on my 3rd account with them as my mate has given me his account as he didn't really use it and doesn't bet until the day so is happy to use a different account. 

[The Equaliser]

59 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

I appreciate your help and opinion, certainly has made me think. I feel that with a bank of £1000 I am happy to stake £15 on my selections to start with. I will then try what you've mentioned where if I get to £1100 I will up it to £16 etc...

Will start doing this from tomorrow so when my selections are put up, instead of pts you will just see my selections and then my running bank total and end of day bank total.

Really do appreciate the help, thank you and hope you have a profitable day. 

I only have two selections today, think there will be two more late morning but that will be it. 

Best of luck.

Only trying to help. It will be very interesting to see how you progress.  One always has to feel comfortable with their betting regime.  Hence, after 5/6 consecutive losers at £15 a point then having the confidence in carrying on the next and subsequent days at the same rate to see out a set back is very important.     Good to see that you have only put up a couple so far today.  As I have said before I am not so sure that there can be many "good" things to bet on each day.  Less is probably more I feel.  Good luck. You are doing very well.

 

[The Equaliser]

23 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

Ps I've lost BOG twice on my two other accounts due to my winnings and now on my 3rd account with them as my mate has given me his account as he didn't really use it and doesn't bet until the day so is happy to use a different account. 

It's good to have friends in this game