Racing Chat - Monday April 12th

[cannotbebeat]

1.40 Windsor Zoltan Star 2/1

1.50 Redcar Torshi 4/1

2.50 Redcar Freak Out 100/30

4.50 Wolverhampton Swinging Eddie 11/4

6.20 Wolverhampton Kaafy 100/30

6.50 Wolverhampton Termonator 3/1

Good luck all CNBB.

 

[Hotspur88]

2.5pt win

1330 Huntingdon

Getthepot 2/1 (NAP)

2pt win double

1330 Getthepot

1440 Pleasant Man

5/1

2.5pt win

1540 Windsor

Edraak 7/2 (Was given this as info to back e/w yesterday afternoon at 7/1. When I looked it had been backed into 7/2 so I've had to back it straight win)

3pt win

1505 Le Croise-Laroche

Tides Of War 7/4

10pts staked.

Will be a couple more late morning.

[Ironjoe]

Windsor 3.40 edraak 5/2 1st

Redcar 2.50 a boy named ivy 15/2 1st 

AND urban war ew 9/1 4th

Redcar 3.20 give it some teddy ew 12/1 unplaced

Redcar 4.25 red flyer 17/2 unplaced

Good luck ?

 

Edited April 12, 2021 by Ironjoe

[alancraik]

todays top rated selections

REDCAR 14:50 Urban War 9/1 e/w 3 Places C bet

REDCAR 15:20 Kettle Hill 5/6 win B bet

WINDSOR 15:40 Green Power 11/1 e/w 3 Places B bet

REDCAR 16:25 Otyrar 10/3 win B bet

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

1.00 Huntingdon - 2pts win San Pedro De Senam @ 9/2 (really fancy this one down in class today)

2.00 Huntingdon - 1pt e/w Only Money @ 8/1 (clearly wants good ground, shaped reasonably well in novice hurdles and sent chasing early on in his career now handicapping which suggests they know his future is over the larger obstacles. His sire's progeny have a better strike rate over fences too so looks an interesting runner if jumping well)

2.10 Windsor - 1pt e/w Silver Diva @ 14/1 (looks well handicapped on some novice form and had a pipe opener at Kempton when not disgraced last time. I think the drop back to 5f can suit and her dam improved a fair bit at 3 so certainly doesn't look one to give up on.)

3.00 Huntingdon - 1pt e/w Long Call @ 9/1 (down the weights and I think has had excuses as he needs decent ground in competitive hurdles races in my opinion. The ground was far worse than as described at Sandown last time so this should suit more and he's well handicapped)

3.40 Windsor - 1pt e/w Second Collection @ 16/1 (goes well at this track and is well handicapped off 75. Not been disgraced recently despite the race not being run to suit at Chelmsford last time out and a stronger gallop would give it a better chance today so appeals at an each-way price)

3.50 Redcar - 1pt e/w Doctor Parnassus @ 20/1 (really well bred with his dam being a group horse over middle distances and is a half brother to Metier. Metier showed his best form at 3 and 4 and his dam was unraced at 2 so I think this one can build on a low key run last year now with a winter under his belt as a 3 year old and the yard's horses are going well)

4.40 Windsor - 1pt e/w Sceptred Isle @ 12/1 (looks a big price on seasonal return having run well in novices last year and I think is handicapped to win this. Drop back in trip shouldn't inconvenience and ran well fresh last year)

4.50 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Diamond Jill @ 20/1 (surprised she's such a big price after a good run over 7f when last seen. This step up in trip is nailed on to suit and off the same mark as last time, looks a decent each-way prospect)

[Hotspur88]

2 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

2.5pt win

1330 Huntingdon

Getthepot 2/1 (NAP)

2pt win double

1330 Getthepot

1440 Pleasant Man

5/1

2.5pt win

1540 Windsor

Edraak 7/2 (Was given this as info to back e/w yesterday afternoon at 7/1. When I looked it had been backed into 7/2 so I've had to back it straight win)

3pt win

1505 Le Croise-Laroche

Tides Of War 7/4

10pts staked.

Will be a couple more late morning.

One last addition....

2.5pt win

1300 Huntingdon 

Rukwa 13/8

On my list last night at 4/1 and been backed into 13/8 so I've missed value but happy to bet on it. 

Will be two more later if I do well today. Not willing to risk anymore until I know if anything is coming back. 

[roger2256]

April -15.5

1pt level stakes win only 

13.00 Hun Legend of France 9/1

15.20 Red Hayadh 16/1

15.20 Red Give It Some Teddy 16/1

17.00 Red Jupiter Road 25/1

Prices as of now b365 

[azzybear]

my Bobby dazzler 2.30 ew

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Wolverhampton 6.50

LOPES DANCER 11/2

[Hotspur88]

6 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

2.5pt win

1330 Huntingdon

Getthepot 2/1 (NAP)

2pt win double

1330 Getthepot

1440 Pleasant Man

5/1

2.5pt win

1540 Windsor

Edraak 7/2 (Was given this as info to back e/w yesterday afternoon at 7/1. When I looked it had been backed into 7/2 so I've had to back it straight win)

3pt win

1505 Le Croise-Laroche

Tides Of War 7/4

10pts staked.

Will be a couple more late morning.

2.5pt Getthepot lost

2pt win double lost

Actually messed up and in fact had 3pts on Edraak. Very impressive performance. But with a R4 it returned 12pts.

3pt win Tides Of War incredibly impressive and returned 9pts with a drift to 2/1.

2.5pt win Rukwa wins returning 6.5pts. 

13pts staked.

27.5pts returned.

Profit = 14.5pts

[Hotspur88]

7 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

2.5pt Getthepot lost

2pt win double lost

Actually messed up and in fact had 3pts on Edraak. Very impressive performance. But with a R4 it returned 12pts.

3pt win Tides Of War incredibly impressive and returned 9pts with a drift to 2/1.

2.5pt win Rukwa wins returning 6.5pts. 

13pts staked.

27.5pts returned.

Profit = 14.5pts

Been a good day so going to put another up....

2pt win

1640 Windsor 

Sycamore 3/1

[The Equaliser]

9 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

2.5pt Getthepot lost

2pt win double lost

Actually messed up and in fact had 3pts on Edraak. Very impressive performance. But with a R4 it returned 12pts.

3pt win Tides Of War incredibly impressive and returned 9pts with a drift to 2/1.

2.5pt win Rukwa wins returning 6.5pts. 

13pts staked.

27.5pts returned.

Profit = 14.5pts

Very well done.   I was just wondering what goes into your research at night to formulate your short list of selections?  Doesn't seem like traditional methods so just curious.  Whatever it is you are certainly doing it right ?

[Hotspur88]

3 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Been a good day so going to put another up....

2pt win

1640 Windsor 

Sycamore 3/1

No good, end the day 12.5pts in profit. 

[Hotspur88]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Very well done.   I was just wondering what goes into your research at night to formulate your short list of selections?  Doesn't seem like traditional methods so just curious.  Whatever it is you are certainly doing it right ?

Multitude of things mate to be honest and it's very time consuming. Last winning mark, current mark, record at the track, trainer form, trainer course record, distance travelled, watch their last race if I really like them and few other things. 

Then after all of that I look at my horses and if a few places like Timeform etc all agree, and I mean all agree and the movement is right in the betting, then I will back it. Don't get it right every time but doing pretty well currently. 

[The Equaliser]

18 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

No good, end the day 12.5pts in profit. 

I reckon that you have still done well if you have £125 extra in your bank account ?

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I reckon that you have still done well if you have £125 extra in your bank account ?

@Barnes1882I'm not sure how you allocate the points to your selections and increasing stakes in points does not look a good way to increase profitability.  A better way in my humble opinion is to increase the value of the points e.g. if things are really going well and your bank is increasing then perhaps increase the value of your £10 per point by say 10% to £11 per point.  In this way you may gently take advantage of the 8th wonder of the world according to Albert Einstein, compound interest.  This was the only type of recommendation of justifiably increasing stakes as proposed by Phil Bull the founder of TImeform.  However, he would have said that if one's balance goes down then adjust stakes 10% downwards on the betting bank.  I prefer to sit tight myself and wait for a bad run to end and the good run to resume.  Just a thought.

 

 

Edited April 12, 2021 by The Equaliser

[MCLARKE]

I agree. I increase my base stake by £1 for every week that my total profit increases. I started many years ago at a £2 stake, it is now up to £69.

[MCLARKE]

7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

AW selection

Wolverhampton 6.50

LOPES DANCER 11/2

Won at 9/2. Now 8/39 + 12.73 LSP.

[cannotbebeat]

I had a bad case of seconditius today still always tomorrow.

[Wildgarden]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

@Barnes1882I'm not sure how you allocate the points to your selections and increasing stakes in points does not look a good way to increase profitability.  A better way in my humble opinion is to increase the value of the points e.g. if things are really going well and your bank is increasing then perhaps increase the value of your £10 per point by say 10% to £11 per point.  In this way you may gently take advantage of the 8th wonder of the world according to Albert Einstein, compound interest.  This was the only type of recommendation of justifiably increasing stakes as proposed by Phil Bull the founder of TImeform.  However, he would have said that if one's balance goes down then adjust stakes 10% downwards on the betting bank.  I prefer to sit tight myself and wait for a bad run to end and the good run to resume.  Just a thought.

 

 

compound interest, the most powerful force in the universe!

[Hotspur88]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

@Barnes1882I'm not sure how you allocate the points to your selections and increasing stakes in points does not look a good way to increase profitability.  A better way in my humble opinion is to increase the value of the points e.g. if things are really going well and your bank is increasing then perhaps increase the value of your £10 per point by say 10% to £11 per point.  In this way you may gently take advantage of the 8th wonder of the world according to Albert Einstein, compound interest.  This was the only type of recommendation of justifiably increasing stakes as proposed by Phil Bull the founder of TImeform.  However, he would have said that if one's balance goes down then adjust stakes 10% downwards on the betting bank.  I prefer to sit tight myself and wait for a bad run to end and the good run to resume.  Just a thought.

 

 

Sorry mate, been very busy and only just read this properly. 

Will explain how I do my pts staking later on but I'm always open to suggestions and not stubborn enough to ignore good advice so will definitely have a rethink. 

Basically if I start with a pot of say £100 as I did. I staked £5 per pt as that gave me 20pts and I was confident I wouldn't lose 20pts. Then when I hit £200 I went to £10 stakes per pt. But then I stopped upping my stakes as I didn't feel comfortable staking more than that. I work on a system of 1-3pts. 1pt being a normal selection I like, 2pts confident and 3pts max but when I get info you might see I stake 4 or 5pts if it's from a good place. 

I need to have a rethink about it all to be honest. I'm taking advantage of a hot spell at the moment and putting more pts on selections but understand that it is far from a sensible approach. 

So basically my stakes were £10 and I've gone off track a little bit. So you suggest upping my stakes to say £11 this week and seeing how I go? At what point would I then move to £12? I'm a teacher (split between Maths and Sport) so love numbers etc hence enjoying studying racing but always open to good advice. 

Appreciate it. 

[Villa Chris]

Regarding points , I keep it simple. 1 point=£1 . It’s rare I bet more than 10 points on a selection. I just like to keep things as simple as possible in  what can become a complicated sport to bet on. I’m still not fully happy with my strategy. Hoping to smooth some things over for the flat season, then be ready for the jumps next season which I prefer .

[MCLARKE]

38 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

1pt being a normal selection I like, 2pts confident and 3pts max but when I get info you might see I stake 4 or 5pts if it's from a good place. 

I would probably ignore the 1pt and 2pt selections and put a larger amount on the maximum selections.

 

39 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

So you suggest upping my stakes to say £11 this week and seeing how I go? At what point would I then move to £12?

If your total profit at the end of this week was higher than the previous week then I would increase it to £12. If you then reached a new high at the end of the following week then it would increase to £13. If you then made a loss the following week the stake would stay at £13 and then would remain at that until you next reached a new high.

It's a slow process but has worked well for me. It has taken me 6 years to get from £2 to £69 but I feel comfortable placing £69 on a selection because of the profits that I have built up in the previous six years.

There have been long losing runs (maximum of 40 weeks) but I have stuck with it and eventually the profits returned.

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, Barnes1882 said:

Sorry mate, been very busy and only just read this properly. 

Will explain how I do my pts staking later on but I'm always open to suggestions and not stubborn enough to ignore good advice so will definitely have a rethink. 

Basically if I start with a pot of say £100 as I did. I staked £5 per pt as that gave me 20pts and I was confident I wouldn't lose 20pts. Then when I hit £200 I went to £10 stakes per pt. But then I stopped upping my stakes as I didn't feel comfortable staking more than that. I work on a system of 1-3pts. 1pt being a normal selection I like, 2pts confident and 3pts max but when I get info you might see I stake 4 or 5pts if it's from a good place. 

I need to have a rethink about it all to be honest. I'm taking advantage of a hot spell at the moment and putting more pts on selections but understand that it is far from a sensible approach. 

So basically my stakes were £10 and I've gone off track a little bit. So you suggest upping my stakes to say £11 this week and seeing how I go? At what point would I then move to £12? I'm a teacher (split between Maths and Sport) so love numbers etc hence enjoying studying racing but always open to good advice. 

Appreciate it. 

0.5% of overall bank as a more aggressive strategy. maybe 0.25% as less aggressive or even 0.1% so if u have £10k its £10 to £25 staking. maybe if starting up with decent system, could do much more aggressive to build bank up to a decent stake level. could also have an aggressive bank and a backup less aggressive bank to not bust out.

Edited April 13, 2021 by Wildgarden

[gbettle]

I've read loads on the Kelly Formula - or Criterion - and the idea of risk, regret and utility. 

I'm sure I'm not writing anything new to most here on PL when x = ( pb - q ) / b

Mathematics of Gambling: the Kelly Formula by Christopher Scott Vaughen:

 

This is also a great video, How Science is Taking the Luck out of Gambling by Adam Kucharski: 

 

[MCLARKE]

I think the trouble with Kelly is that it assumes you know what the edge is on each race, in reality we don't know what our edge is until after the results.

We have to use our historical edge but this isn't a guarantee about the future.

Former Nobel Laureate Bertrand Russell describes the chicken that sees the farmer feed him every day and so assumes this trend will continue. Which it does - until one day the farmer wrings it's neck !

[gbettle]

Brilliant 

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I think the trouble with Kelly is that it assumes you know what the edge is on each race, in reality we don't know what our edge is until after the results.

We have to use our historical edge but this isn't a guarantee about the future.

Former Nobel Laureate Bertrand Russell describes the chicken that sees the farmer feed him every day and so assumes this trend will continue. Which it does - until one day the farmer wrings it's neck !

can u work out my edge on chases so far this month from above?

[MCLARKE]

 

No.

You would need to calculate the expected chance of each selection from the odds, then add these up to calculate the expected number of winners and then compare this to the actual number of winners.

[gbettle]

Based on this article by Peter Marko, Feb 2005 - http://www.punterprofits.com/horse-racing/sensible_betting_staking.php - my current system is as follows:
 

My max loss runs are too much in the small test for me to use the 7.10% suggested stake!