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French Open 2021


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Garin - Giron; Giron +6.5 games HC @1.70 with WWin

I'm going against Garin again. In match versus McDonald he was on the edge of elimination, he recovered from 0:2 and break in third set, in TB he even saved MP and then recovered to win 3:2. Giron made some good results on clay this season, I watched him against Andujar and he seems like reliable player, he can hold ball in the game, what could lead to Garin's errors and make this match much more thight than odds are showing.

Opelka - Medvedev over 36.5 games @1.75 with WWin

I decided to stick with good servers, since they made some very good results in this 2 months even on slow surface. Opelka won pretty easy against Martin, then with some troubles he managed to defeat Munar. Medvedev didn't impress me at all, he will be exposed to much stronger serve and strokes than against Paul. Former lacks of power in his game, what was nice seen against Korda, who was holding his serve with ease. Medvedev lost set against Paul and I think we will see some TB's here, which can cover this low line.

 

 

 

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On 6/3/2021 at 2:54 PM, darko08 said:

Pegula to beat Kenin at 2.00 with bet365

Well, I'm happy with her 2 wins here against Ostapenko (6-4, 4-6, 6-3) and Baptiste (7-5, 6-3) but now I think Pegula is gonna beat her. Kenin came here with no victories on clay (0-3). She lost against Davis, Kontaveit and Krejcikova, the last 2 in straight sets. She's far from her best form and today she has suffered a lot against Baptiste in the first set. Pegula has beat Zhu (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) and Martincova (6-3, 6-3). She's 6-3 on clay this year and she has beat some big players as Cirstea, Kasatkina, Osaka and Alexandrova, all of them in straight sets. Her 2021 is just impressive (23-9). QFs in the AO, SFs in Doha and QFs in Dubai. Today I was expecting a better match from Kenin cause she was playing against a 19 years old player with no big wins on the tour but, as I said, she has suffered too much and I have seen her too nervous. Wathcing her today I also had the feeling that she doesn't trust in herself too much so, at these odds, I take Pegula with no doubts.

I Believe that Pegula take 1 set *  Kostyuk * Jabeur is pretty safe @2.45 on Bet365

Kostyuk and Jabeur have been pretty solid on the first week.

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awful day.. didn't want to risk further on Isner because of that last match in Acapulco and the Greek was great on clay, anyway watched the match and nice odds came in 😊 Tsitsipas looks incredibly nervous, haven't seen him like that. Isner is playing good and if nothing changes he can win it.

IMG_20210604_215157.jpg

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55 minutes ago, Ozero said:

Vondrousova 2.3 vs Badosa. I see a big value here considering the match again Bodgan, even tho she played well in the first rounds, at this level i don't think it will pass against Vondrousova. 

Are you basing this off of one match? Badosa should very much be favorite here. 

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15 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:

Are you basing this off of one match? Badosa should very much be favorite here. 

I kinda agree here. I think Badosa is very much in form right now.

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On 6/3/2021 at 10:12 PM, CzechPunter said:

Jessica Pegula to beat Sofia Kenin at 2.01 with Pinnacle

Fully agree with @darko08 here. I was quite worried about Kenin today and the handicap landed only just, she could've lost the first set as well, it was a rather fine margin. She had the experience edge against Baptiste, but no such luck here. Kenin is the more accomplished player, but Pegula has been the better player all season long honestly. Hard to say why she isn't like 1.70 here.

Czech I have seen pegula in dubai and the way she choked in that match from being a set up and 3 games up in 2nd set. I made up my mind not to back her ever after that match. Kenin is a grandslam winner. out of form sure but form is temporary. she can handle the pressure quite well than pegula for sure

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I am backing Krazykova to beat Svitolina. She is a decent player and quite underrated. if she can beat svitolina who is a top 5 player and on her day can be very lethal krazykova can reach the semis minimum.

Clay is not a surface where svitolina usually performs

 

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7 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

Are you basing this off of one match? Badosa should very much be favorite here. 

ya badosa even i see her as one of the semi-finalist. I still dont see anybody strong enough to beat iga. maybe serena can break the jinx and finally retire

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Federer looks good, but not fascinating. I noticed some weaknesses against Cilic. He offers some of his magical shots, but his legs are not moving so well any more...No chance to beat any of the big players like Djokovic, Nadal, Tsitsipas

Koepfer is unknown quantity to me, never watch or heard anything about him.

NO BET obviously

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Koepfer has good serve and powerful strokes, but I think he is mentally weak. That usually shows in matches against Fedex/Rafa/Nole.. I would say 3:1 for Federer.

Alcaraz - Struff over 37.5 games @1.95 with WWin

Both players play great on the tournament, have strong serve and nice game with lot of winners. Alcaraz is favored by the bookies (1.53). Struff played close match against Bagnis already, but he still won 3:0. He has more experiences on grand slams and I can´t see Alcaraz winning in straight sets, despite an easy win against Basilasvili. I won´t pick a winner, just long match with lot of games.

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3 hours ago, delfino said:

Federer looks good, but not fascinating. I noticed some weaknesses against Cilic. He offers some of his magical shots, but his legs are not moving so well any more...No chance to beat any of the big players like Djokovic, Nadal, Tsitsipas

Koepfer is unknown quantity to me, never watch or heard anything about him.

NO BET obviously

Agreed. Federer has looked really good, but there were definitely moments he lost control of the match against Cilic and the big players would have punished him further. He won't be able to dominate rallies soon. 

Personally I think he beats Koepfer though and then loses to Berrettini.  I think Koepfer is not a step up from Cilic so unless Federers fitness hasn't recovered he will take this is in 3/4 sets. Based off the previous rounds and the interview Micha did on his german compatriot I don't think he has the weapons to really hurt Federer.

 

On the side I'm just happy to see Federer playing so well, he makes the game look so easy. 

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I just don't think Mikael Ymer can play with Jannik Sinner today. Ymer had to come back from a difficult position first match, and Monfils played so badly against him, and gifted him the match. For me Ymer simply does not have the power and finesse to compete in this match. Sinner will win in straight sets, and if he does he will cover the -6.5 game spread. The 3-0 set score is a much better bet giving even money

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Berrettini (-9.0 Games) to beat Kwon at 2.62 with Pinnacle

Last pick from me for this FO. Nothing much to say. Kwon is a pure hard court player. He has a negative record on clay 9-12. The only reason why he's still here is cause he has played against Kevin Anderson and Seppi. Kevin had to retire in his last match before the FO due to physical issues and Seppi was out of gas after his tough match against FAA. Berrettini beat Taro in 4 sets (6-0, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4) and then he beat Coria in 3 sets (6-3, 6-3, 6-2). Djokovic almost covered this line in only 2 sets in Belgrade (6-1, 6-3), as well as Carreno, in Marbella (6-4, 6-0). The difference between them is huge and I like how Berrettini is playing so I think he can cover this line.

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Why the last pick @darko08?

Daniil Medvedev (-1.5 sets) to beat Christian Garin at 1.88 with Sbobet

I had Medvedev to beat Garin in Madrid and he failed there, but much has changed since then. Medvedev has already beaten some tricky opponents in this tournament, while Garin has struggled to beat McDonald and couldn't crush Londero/Giron either. Medvedev likes the conditions and he should win this one handily more often than not imo.

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@CzechPunter I don't want to risk the good record (7-2) I have built during this first week of the tournament, that's all. Besides, I still have 2 bets pending. The other one I have is Tsitsipas to win the 4th quarter, as well as you. If I find something that I like I will post it but it has to be something that I really like...

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Medvedev -3.5 games @1.68  to beat Garin offered by meridianbet 10/10 confidence

Carreno Busta +7.5 games to beat Tstsipas @1.68 offered by meridianbet 10/10 confidence

Quarter 4 winner : Medvedev @3.75  meridianbet = BET OF THE SEASON

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1 minute ago, delfino said:

Medvedev -3.5 games @1.68  to beat Garin offered by meridianbet 10/10 confidence

Carreno Busta +7.5 games to beat TsItsipas @1.68 offered by meridianbet 10/10 confidence

Quarter 4 winner : Medvedev @3.75  meridianbet = BET OF THE SEASON

For the 4th quarter winner, the bet must be placed today before the matches of the quarter starts. 

 

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Nishikori (+7.0 Games) to beat Zverev at 1.869 with Pinnacle

Nishikori odds are value here. Zverev is not stable player can play every match in high level. He has beat Otte in 5 sets . Nishikori much better player than Otte. Djere was very bad against Zverev . I think Nishi will not play like Djere. Also, Nishi got a set from  Zverev  3 weeks ago in Rome.

I expect very close match. This handicap is very good for my bet.

Good luck to everyone. 

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Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Diego Schwartzman at 2.70 with Pinnacle

I've really liked Struff so far, it seems to me that he's finally worked on his mental game and it's paying off big time. It was a massive deal that he managed to win the decider against Rublev after the Russian's comeback and he's been progressing nicely. As far as Diego is concerned, he's been shaky all season long, so why is he getting so much credit here? Because he's yet to drop a set? Great, but Struff lost two against Rublev and then none against Bagnis and the massively talented Alcaraz. Diego dropped none, but against the retired Lu, the fairly average Bedene and the suprise veteran Kohlschreiber. This will be the first serious test for Diego in the tournament and I'm not having him as such a big favourite at all. Remember, he even folded in two sets against Gasquet in Lyon! At 2.70, I have to bet Struff and hope for the best.

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Posted (edited)

anyone noticed how this years women's RG is going down a very similar route to last years?

Swiatek cruising, Kenin running deep, Badosa surprising people, most of the bigger names and early favorites either out or have withdrawn.

Predicting a last 4 of Gauff vs. Swiatek and Badosa vs. Pavlyuchenckova

Huge opportunity for the likes of Gauff, Jabeur, Sakkari, Rybakina etc to grab a first GS title. 

Edited by AgaRadwanska
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12 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Diego Schwartzman at 2.70 with Pinnacle

I've really liked Struff so far, it seems to me that he's finally worked on his mental game and it's paying off big time. It was a massive deal that he managed to win the decider against Rublev after the Russian's comeback and he's been progressing nicely. As far as Diego is concerned, he's been shaky all season long, so why is he getting so much credit here? Because he's yet to drop a set? Great, but Struff lost two against Rublev and then none against Bagnis and the massively talented Alcaraz. Diego dropped none, but against the retired Lu, the fairly average Bedene and the suprise veteran Kohlschreiber. This will be the first serious test for Diego in the tournament and I'm not having him as such a big favourite at all. Remember, he even folded in two sets against Gasquet in Lyon! At 2.70, I have to bet Struff and hope for the best.

This is what I'm taking today. 

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Daniil Medvedev to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 2.91 with Pinnacle

Aside from cheering Badosa, I'll also be cheering Daniil tomorrow. Sure, Tsitsipas has the better pedigree on clay. He has an awful record against Medvedev, though, and I don't think the clay factor is big enough to overturn it on its own. He also looked a bit nervous against Isner, which makes me think that he shouldn't be such a huge favorite here. I wouldn't quite want to back Medvedev below the 2.5-2.6 mark, but 2.91 is worth it imo.

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