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Anybody have seen the comeback from Siniakova in the third set? Omg.. She was in god mode.  @CzechPunter your compatriot is definitely back.. I know it's impossible to maintain the level she showed on those final games but if she does she can beat anybody. I will keep an eye on her.

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Quick introduction, I'm starting new on this forum and thought it would be a good place to share with my friends whatever knowledge I've acquired over the past so many years. I'm South African as my u

Opelka to beat Munar at 1.80 with bet365 Opelka impressed all us with his run in Rome. He beat Gasquet, Musetti, Karatsev and Delbonis, all of them in straight sets. After that he lost against Cu

Why the last pick @darko08? Daniil Medvedev (-1.5 sets) to beat Christian Garin at 1.88 with Sbobet I had Medvedev to beat Garin in Madrid and he failed there, but much has changed since the

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Yeah, that was crazy @darko08! From 1-5 to 7-5 there.

Sofia Kenin (-4) to beat Hailey Baptiste at 1.92 with Pinnacle

Despite Kenin's issues, she did fine in the first round and she's still well above Baptiste class-wise. Baptiste even folded against Zarazua recently, so it's hard for me to trust her here.

Jan-Lennard Struff (-1.5 sets) to beat Facundo Bagnis at 2.21 with Sbobet

The courts are definitely a bit faster than usual and Struff was bashing the ball nicely against Rublev. Picking the set handicap here due to the better price and due to the fact that Bagnis would have the fitness edge in the fifth set.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, K8a said:

Any thought on Schwartzman / Bedene match.? + 5.5 games seems a bit to much given their current form.

Be careful with this one cause both players are in a bad form. When 2 players are in a bad form anything can happen. Personally, I will stay away from this match.

Edited by darko08
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12 hours ago, K8a said:

Any thought on Schwartzman / Bedene match.? + 5.5 games seems a bit to much given their current form.

+5.5 games HC is nothing given odds 1.33 on Schwartzman win for me.. this handicap can be lost with one 6:2 set, and you have at least 3 sets here. He is one of the best returners on ATP tour and he can demolish Bedene in his best form.  Now it will be interesting, since Argentinian is in bad form, it all depends from his game. Bedene´s abilities all limited. Over 3.5 sets or Bedene over 17 games are better options if you decide to play on him.

One question for all of you, do you have some database of at least match highlights of RG? I can find only on official YT: https://www.youtube.com/c/rolandgarros/videos but that is just few matches per day.. I just can´t believe it´s that bad, even for challenegers there is more material :D Since I don´t have time to watch matches much I would be grateful.

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Berrettini (3-0) to beat Coria + Nadal (3-0) to beat Gasquet at 1.77 with bet365

Berrettini dropped a set against Taro but I saw the beginning of the match and the difference between them was huge. Taro only had 1 break opportunity in 4 sets. Coria was lucky to face Feli but now he's run here is over and I expect this to be a straight sets win for Berrettini.

Nadal beating 3-0 Gasquet shouldn't be a problem. 

 

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I'm weighing up taking Collins to beat Serena at around 2.4.

Collins looked good against Kalinina, clinical and positive in the first set and gritty in the second. She serves better than anyone Serena has faced so far and hits much better winners. 

Serena hasn't been serving great, she gets lots of aces but has been broken twice(?) by Begu and dropped a set to Buza, so not dominating. And as soon as you get into a rally if you avoid just hitting it down the middle she isn't moving well.

You need to serve well against Serena as she will put away any 2nd serve gifts, but this has got to be a big chance for some aggressive like Collins. 

Going to think a bit longer on it, can't see the price going down and might move the other way as it does with crowd favourite. Any other thoughts would be welcome before I pull the trigger on this.

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3 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:

What do we think of Cillic's chances against Federer? 3.40 on most sites. 1.44 to win a set. 

This is only Roger's 3rd match on clay this year. 

The markets seem to be suddenly taking a u-turn against Cilic now going from 2/1 to 12/5 the win. This is mostly the result of sharp money coming on Federer for some reason. I am strongly believing that if Cilic is going to lose then it will be by a collapse of 0-3. I will be siding with the fed here from all the new pointers.

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8 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:

What do we think of Cillic's chances against Federer? 3.40 on most sites. 1.44 to win a set. 

This is only Roger's 3rd match on clay this year. 

Hard to say because Roger looked very comfortable, more so than say Nadal did who really had to work to win points. But thats down to the opponent. I just don't think Cilic really can hurt Federer in a rally, so he'll need to hit quick winners, if Cilic serves really good I think he can take a set and push Federer but I wouldn't taking him to win. 

I think it will be great match to see where Federer is, only Djoko and Tsit have really impressed me so far in terms of outright potential. Nadal looked a little vulnerable.

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Posted (edited)

Wow my -4.5 games on Kenin bet came in at the very last hurdle where Baptiste made two double faults in her service game for 4-5 just when she had gamepoints but eventually got broken (after breaking back 2-5 down because Kenin did two double faults in a row) to lose 7-5 6-3.

Thanks @CzechPunter

Edited by four-leaf
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Norrie - Harris over 35.5 games @1.70 with WWin

Lot was said about Norrie during past months, in first round he beat Fratangelo pretty easy, but it could be also different if American would use more than 3/12 BP he had. He lost both finals against Ramos and Tsitsipas. Harris suprised with 3:0 win against Sonego in first round, with great performance on his serve. I expect at least 4 close sets to cover this low game line. 

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Pegula to beat Kenin at 2.00 with bet365

Well, I'm happy with her 2 wins here against Ostapenko (6-4, 4-6, 6-3) and Baptiste (7-5, 6-3) but now I think Pegula is gonna beat her. Kenin came here with no victories on clay (0-3). She lost against Davis, Kontaveit and Krejcikova, the last 2 in straight sets. She's far from her best form and today she has suffered a lot against Baptiste in the first set. Pegula has beat Zhu (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) and Martincova (6-3, 6-3). She's 6-3 on clay this year and she has beat some big players as Cirstea, Kasatkina, Osaka and Alexandrova, all of them in straight sets. Her 2021 is just impressive (23-9). QFs in the AO, SFs in Doha and QFs in Dubai. Today I was expecting a better match from Kenin cause she was playing against a 19 years old player with no big wins on the tour but, as I said, she has suffered too much and I have seen her too nervous. Wathcing her today I also had the feeling that she doesn't trust in herself too much so, at these odds, I take Pegula with no doubts.

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Jessica Pegula to beat Sofia Kenin at 2.01 with Pinnacle

Fully agree with @darko08 here. I was quite worried about Kenin today and the handicap landed only just, she could've lost the first set as well, it was a rather fine margin. She had the experience edge against Baptiste, but no such luck here. Kenin is the more accomplished player, but Pegula has been the better player all season long honestly. Hard to say why she isn't like 1.70 here.

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Posted (edited)

5 bets from me today.

Opelka - Medvedev

Opelka @4,15 Bethard

H2H 2-1 Medvedev.

Last h2h Opelka won in St Petersburg 2020 & he has been playing good on Clay rgis year & will not be surprised if he wins thismacth & odds are really good. 

Simply has to try theese odds

MAX BET Opelka +2,5 sets @1,52 UNIBET.

 

Tsitsipas - Isner

Isner +2,5 sets @1,89 Pinnacle

Badosa - Bogdan

Badosa -1,5 sets @1,57 Unibet

Cirstea - Kasatkina

Kasatkina @1,61 Bethard

Edited by LOVETENNIS
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Hi and welcome to the forum @LOVETENNIS! Please don't open new threads!

I don't really trust Kontaveit enough, but that's a price that might be worth taking honestly and I'll think about it again for tomorrow. Opelka might be slight value, but Medvedev looks motivated, his fightback against Paul was flawless basically. For today, I'm adding this.

John Isner Total Games (vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas) - Over 15.5 at 1.80 with Bet365

While I still fancy Tsitsipas to win his quarter, Isner has been looking good and the conditions are to his liking. He demolished two decent players already and he's yet to drop a set, so I think he'll do some damage. The line can be covered even in three sets and Tsitsipas has weaknesses in his returning game, Isner just needs to go to his backhand from time to time. 

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Hi and welcome to the forum @LOVETENNIS! Please don't open new threads!

I don't really trust Kontaveit enough, but that's a price that might be worth taking honestly and I'll think about it again for tomorrow. Opelka might be slight value, but Medvedev looks motivated, his fightback against Paul was flawless basically. For today, I'm adding this.

John Isner Total Games (vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas) - Over 15.5 at 1.80 with Bet365

While I still fancy Tsitsipas to win his quarter, Isner has been looking good and the conditions are to his liking. He demolished two decent players already and he's yet to drop a set, so I think he'll do some damage. The line can be covered even in three sets and Tsitsipas has weaknesses in his returning game, Isner just needs to go to his backhand from time to time. 

Ty... I will not open new threads.. But really like the bets i put in there, where is the bets now ? 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, DrO said:

Medvedev - Opelka 1.25  3.25 

There has to be value on Opelka,doesn't? Either final outcome or set/game handicap.

I think it's very hard to go against Medvedev. He is a smart guy, probably one of the most gifted players out there, with incredible game strategy. Every match he wins on the clay makes him exponentially stronger. 

I really thought he would battle with Tommy Paul, but when the chips were down, he readjusted and brought his A game.

For me almost a match to bet in play. Evaluate how quickly Medvedev figures out the Opelka serve. If Opelka is struggling to win his serve early on, it's a strong indicator of him losing. And odds won't change that much considering Medvedev is 2.8 to 10.

Does standing 2 meters behind the baseline work against a player with a rocket for a serve? 

Edited by neilovan
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Not a huge fan of woman's tennis but I think there is value in Collins to beat Serena at 13 to 10. Last match decided by 10 point tie breaker, and Serena is just not moving well. If her opponent starts getting her serve back, she is in trouble.

I also fancy Azarenka over Madison Keys (if you can bear the sound effects). I think Azarenka is just way too tough, physically and mentally here.

Will take both in a double that should give about 2.6 to 1

 

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