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  • 1 month later...

Right, we have the few final tournaments before the big one. Good luck, guys!

Adrian Mannarino to beat Arthur Cazaux at 1.83 with Pinnacle

I saw a bit of Cazaux in the qualifiers he played against Korda and Popyrin and I think he's overvalued here. He does have a decent future ahead, but he hasn't beaten that many players of Mannarino's level yet and Mannarino looked decent against Dellien. In a year or two, Cazaux will be 1.30 in this match-up, but I like Mannarino at 1.83 this year.

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Giulia Gatto-Monticone (+1.5 sets) to beat Ludmilla Samsonova at 2.28 with Pinnacle

Decent value here I reckon, Gatto-Monticone has troubled Samsonova in the past and Samsonova didn't even beat a weaker opponent in the qualifying. That, obviously, could've been because she was essentially guaranteed a spot in the main draw, but anyway. Gatto-Monticone also has the home conditions on her side, I think even backing her outright is worth it for the more ambitious of souls.

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Posted (edited)

Cilic Vs Stricker

Cilic is not in any kind of real form but classwise should be able to beat Stricker easily which really should be the default reasoning here - that is if you are too blind to notice the other hidden factors.. Cilic 4/3 on clay this year and Stricker 0/1. The question is who is this Stricker? Do not expect me to have an answer for you as I have only seen as much as you have probably seen about him. However there are some very import things that stand out about this match that I just cannot overlook. Stricker is only 18 and has a very impressive hard court record under him. He has only played the one match on clay yet the tournament organizers have deemed it fit to slot this match into the prime time slot. Most times they do this for reason. (Saving the best for last)This boy must have some real potential especially with the way the odds have moved in the last 2 days. Verdict: Stricker to win a set @ evens . Sprinkling a few euros on Stricker to win 3/1 is also strongly advised. Good luck!!!

Edited by liquidglass
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I'm not sure that Stricker has what it takes to beat Cilic, but I can add that I saw Stricker twice in his run in Lugano and he was outplaying better-ranked opponents with ease (I saw him against Sugita and Sachko). A real talent I'd say. Obviously that means he can be a bit hit-or-miss, but he definitely has the game to beat Cilic if the Croat underperforms as he's used to doing now. Basically, my take on the match is that you take Stricker in some capacity or stay away.

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1 hour ago, liquidglass said:

Cilic Vs Stricker

Cilic is not in any kind of real form but classwise should be able to beat Stricker easily which really should be the default reasoning here - that is if you are too blind to notice the other hidden factors.. Cilic 4/3 on clay this year and Stricker 0/1. The question is who is this Stricker? Do not expect me to have an answer for you as I have only seen as much as you have probably seen about him. However there are some very import things that stand out about this match that I just cannot overlook. Stricker is only 18 and has a very impressive hard court record under him. He has only played the one match on clay yet the tournament organizers have deemed it fit to slot this match into the prime time slot. Most times they do this for reason. (Saving the best for last)This boy must have some real potential especially with the way the odds have moved in the last 2 days. Verdict: Stricker to win a set @ evens . Sprinkling a few euros on Stricker to win 3/1 is also strongly advised. Good luck!!!

I know him and I have seen him. The reason why the odds have moved it's pretty much simple. He won the FO boys edition the last year which means he has a lot of potential. On the other side we have Cilic, a player who has been a mess for the last 2 years. I was expecting these odds movements but I also think Cilic is gonna win this. He has played decently in Estoril and Rome. He beat Alcaraz in Estoril and Alcaraz is much better player than Stricker right now. Cilic is GS champion and he will play the best he can to avoid the shame of being beat by a 18 years old guy as he did when he played against Alcaraz. That being said, I wouldn't put my money on Cilic at those odds, that's for sure.

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Di Giuseppe (+5.5 Games) to beat Qiang Wang at 1.74 with Pinnacle
Di Giuseppe to beat Qiang Wang at 4.1 with Pinnacle

I go against Wang again. Wang is in a bad shape right now (5-11). She has lost a lot of matches that she should have won. Besides, she has a very negative record on this surface (25-27). She has played 5 matches on clay this year and she only has won 2. She beat Gasanova in Istanbul in a 3 set match. After that, she has lost in straight sets against Konjuh, Muchova and Anisimova, which is totally understandable. In her first match here she has won in a 3 set match against Doi, who has a very negative record on this surface. Di Giuseppe is 30 years old and her best ranking ever is 149, but she's a pure clay court player with more than 500 matches played on this surface. She has beat Kawa, Bronzetti and Hibino here and she was priced at similar odds on all those matches.

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Random thought (from watching yet another Camile Giorgi match): Could Camile potentially be / have been a top 15-20 player if she didn't have her weird, bonkers dad as coach (for her entire career), and instead had a proper coach who actually fixed her many leaks instead of shouting at umpires and throwing tantrums?

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2 hours ago, darko08 said:

I know him and I have seen him. The reason why the odds have moved it's pretty much simple. He won the FO boys edition the last year which means he has a lot of potential. On the other side we have Cilic, a player who has been a mess for the last 2 years. I was expecting these odds movements but I also think Cilic is gonna win this. He has played decently in Estoril and Rome. He beat Alcaraz in Estoril and Alcaraz is much better player than Stricker right now. Cilic is GS champion and he will play the best he can to avoid the shame of being beat by a 18 years old guy as he did when he played against Alcaraz. That being said, I wouldn't put my money on Cilic at those odds, that's for sure.

to add to other info on him, Stricker was one of the practice partners for the top guys at the ATP Finals 2020 in London. Saw him practice with djoker a few times. He has seen massive improvement since then, evidenced by the challenger title in Lugano. too inconsistent still for me too put money on him against Cilic, especially at these odds. but definitely a guy to keep an eye on.

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Monfils @2,16 (Marathonbet)

Monfils did more than okay against Sonego in Rome and I think he makes a good chance to grab his first victory of the year against Seyboth Wild, who lost in the qualification against M. Ymer. Although Monfils is struggling with injuries, he is more than a class above Seyboth Wild, so I am more than happy to pick him at these odds.

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Cazaux to beat Pablo Cuevas at 2.83 with Pinnacle

Cuevas hasn't been playing well this year. In Munich he was destroyed by Ruud (6-3, 6-2) after beating Sandgren in a 3 set match. After that, he lost against Nishioka (6-4, 6-4) in Madrid and then he lost against Norrie (6-1, 6-3) in Rome. He has beat Jakub Paul, Giustino and Opelka in his 3 matches here. The match he won against Opelka did not impress me at all cause Opelka came here after reaching the SFs in Rome. Besides, Opelka lost the first set in a tight TB and then he lost easily the second one, which is understandable after his long run in Rome. What makes me think that he is gonna lose this match besides his poor form is the fact that he could have lost his first match here against another young promise, Jakub Paul (6-3, 4-6, 6-3). Cazaux has won his first match here against Mannarino (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). He beat Korda in straight sets in Madrid and then he lost in 2 tight sets against Popyrin (7-5, 7-6). I have seen Cuevas in some of his previous tournaments and I got the feeling that anybody can beat him, so why not a young promise who has beat 2 top 60 players in the last 2 weeks...?

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3 hours ago, darko08 said:

Cazaux to beat Pablo Cuevas at 2.83 with Pinnacle

Cuevas hasn't been playing well this year. In Munich he was destroyed by Ruud (6-3, 6-2) after beating Sandgren in a 3 set match. After that, he lost against Nishioka (6-4, 6-4) in Madrid and then he lost against Norrie (6-1, 6-3) in Rome. He has beat Jakub Paul, Giustino and Opelka in his 3 matches here. The match he won against Opelka did not impress me at all cause Opelka came here after reaching the SFs in Rome. Besides, Opelka lost the first set in a tight TB and then he lost easily the second one, which is understandable after his long run in Rome. What makes me think that he is gonna lose this match besides his poor form is the fact that he could have lost his first match here against another young promise, Jakub Paul (6-3, 4-6, 6-3). Cazaux has won his first match here against Mannarino (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). He beat Korda in straight sets in Madrid and then he lost in 2 tight sets against Popyrin (7-5, 7-6). I have seen Cuevas in some of his previous tournaments and I got the feeling that anybody can beat him, so why not a young promise who has beat 2 top 60 players in the last 2 weeks...?

Somewhere around the corner Pablo is gonna start turning his fortunes around and he usually does that in smaller tournaments like this one. I'm not convinced Cazaux has what it takes to consistently outrally the former top 30 veteran claygrinder who thrives on the red stuff. The youngsters results before Madrid doesn't really impress either. Like losing the final in a clayfutures tourney to 23 year old german Erler. But still it's about time this veteran starts dropping in the ranks and for Cazaux I can understand his loss to Erler who isn't a bad player anyway and the final was played in Germany in April.

I'm feeling Cazaux might have the edge after all. The loss in the final in April is a long time ago for an 18 year old talent progressing forward rapidly so he probably has improved since then.

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47 minutes ago, i2ickytang said:

Thoughts on Maria Camila Osorio Serrano v Kamilla Rakhimova....anyone think kamilla rakhimova have a chance against the in form serrano....

Absolutely not because she will have to strike first by breaking serve and hitting winners from start from all kinds of different angles but even then it wont be enough. The russian did a good job yesterday versus Olga but Olga hasn't done crap since winning that title in Moscow 3 years ago and Olga played exactly like crap 80% of the match racking up a huge amount of unforced errors. Can't even understand why Olga was the favourite when she even had lost to Rakhi twice in straight sets last season and you could get 2.25 on Rakhi. Still it's very likely Rakhi will have a bit to mutch to handle because this colombian she faces keeps her errorcount down which is the main reason behind her success lately.

 

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58 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Somewhere around the corner Pablo is gonna start turning his fortunes around and he usually does that in smaller tournaments like this one. I'm not convinced Cazaux has what it takes to consistently outrally the former top 30 veteran claygrinder who thrives on the red stuff. The youngsters results before Madrid doesn't really impress either. Like losing the final in a clayfutures tourney to 23 year old german Erler. But still it's about time this veteran starts dropping in the ranks and for Cazaux I can understand his loss to Erler who isn't a bad player anyway and the final was played in Germany in April.

I'm feeling Cazaux might have the edge after all. The loss in the final in April is a long time ago for an 18 year old talent progressing forward rapidly so he probably has improved since then.

After what Pablo Cuevas surprisingly saw himself do to Opelka, there has to be a sense that the young Cazaux is walking into a death trap. Cuevas is a very good player when on song, and one does not need a soothsayer to tell you that Cuevas looks very game here. I thought the first part of your write-up was on point till you got distracted by giving Cazaux the vote borne of a feeling. Really?? lol. Cuevas to with match @1/2 is good value

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4 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

After what Pablo Cuevas surprisingly saw himself do to Opelka, there has to be a sense that the young Cazaux is walking into a death trap. Cuevas is a very good player when on song, and one does not need a soothsayer to tell you that Cuevas looks very game here. I thought the first part of your write-up was on point till you got distracted by giving Cazaux the vote borne of a feeling. Really?? lol. Cuevas to with match @1/2 is good value

I didn't give Cazaux the vote, I just thought he might have improved but not enough to beat Pablo but I'm gonna leave it alone so no bet.

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29 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

After what Pablo Cuevas surprisingly saw himself do to Opelka, there has to be a sense that the young Cazaux is walking into a death trap. Cuevas is a very good player when on song, and one does not need a soothsayer to tell you that Cuevas looks very game here. I thought the first part of your write-up was on point till you got distracted by giving Cazaux the vote borne of a feeling. Really?? lol. Cuevas to with match @1/2 is good value

Betting on Cuevas at 1.50 when he has lost everywhere?? LOL. The players he has beat on the qualy are incredibly weak and the fact that he has beat Opelka means nothing cause Opelka reached the SFs in Rome, he played 5 matches there and focusing now in this minor tournament would be a nonsense. I'm not saying Cazaux is gonna win this for sure but saying theres value on Cuevas at 1.50... LOL

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, darko08 said:

Betting on Cuevas at 1.50 when he has lost everywhere?? LOL. The players he has beat on the qualy are incredibly weak and the fact that he has beat Opelka means nothing cause Opelka reached the SFs in Rome, he played 5 matches there and focusing now in this minor tournament would be a nonsense. I'm not saying Cazaux is gonna win this for sure but saying theres value on Cuevas at 1.50... LOL

Best leave it alone.. It really doesn't impress seeing Cazaux having such huge problems beating Mannarino on clay. Have also checked Cazauxs junior career and it involves last years junior aussie open final where he lost badly to countryman Harold Mayot the arguably bigger talent. Cazaux had played four 3 set matches in Melbourne then and been down a set in 3 of them so he had to fight real hard to get to the final and only Martin Damm is the player of notice that he beat. Cazaux feels like something interesting but it might take years before he even gets close to winning another ATP maindraw match.

Edit: What I'm thinking is that for my liking Cazaux has to mutch problems taking care of business from what I've seen so far from him...

Edited by four-leaf
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Posted (edited)

Feliciano Lopez to beat Dominic Köpfer at 2.55 with Unibet

Still going strong with his lefty serve even on clay but not at the same rate of course but enough to beat this german for the second time even on Domis prefered surface. I can't say I'm impressed by Domi either in München or Geneva. His serve isn't there, his footwork is lacking, he's mentally weak and can't handle anyone who serves big.

Edit: Only reason Domi is still in Geneva is the mental headcase Paire who as usually threw away a match he was winning.

Edited by four-leaf
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Norrie to beat Thiem at 3.94 with Pinnacle
Norrie (+1.5 Sets) to beat Thiem at 2.00 with Pinnacle

Norrie never did well on clay but this year his results on this surface has been impressive (11-3). In Barcelona he reached the QFs after beating Caruso, Khachanov and Goffin. In Estoril he reached the Final after beating J.Sousa, Pedro Martinez, Garin and Cilic. In Rome he beat Cuevas, Cecchinato and Carballes. In his first match here he has beat Moutet in straight sets. Norrie has lost against Nadal, Ramos (in a 3 set match decided by a TB) and Fokina. Thiem has not convinced me at all. In Madrid he lost in straight sets against Zverev after beating De Minaur and Isner in 2 tough matches. Then, he lost in his second match in Rome against Sonego in a 3 set match after beating Fucsovics in another 3 set match. I saw the whole match and Fucsovics could have won that match in 2 sets. If he's playing here is cause he knows he's not ready for the FO so I expect Norrie to have some options here.

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3 hours ago, darko08 said:

Norrie to beat Thiem at 3.94 with Pinnacle
Norrie (+1.5 Sets) to beat Thiem at 2.00 with Pinnacle

Norrie never did well on clay but this year his results on this surface has been impressive (11-3). In Barcelona he reached the QFs after beating Caruso, Khachanov and Goffin. In Estoril he reached the Final after beating J.Sousa, Pedro Martinez, Garin and Cilic. In Rome he beat Cuevas, Cecchinato and Carballes. In his first match here he has beat Moutet in straight sets. Norrie has lost against Nadal, Ramos (in a 3 set match decided by a TB) and Fokina. Thiem has not convinced me at all. In Madrid he lost in straight sets against Zverev after beating De Minaur and Isner in 2 tough matches. Then, he lost in his second match in Rome against Sonego in a 3 set match after beating Fucsovics in another 3 set match. I saw the whole match and Fucsovics could have won that match in 2 sets. If he's playing here is cause he knows he's not ready for the FO so I expect Norrie to have some options here.

To put it bluntly, I really believe that your first option Norrie to beat Thiem is kind of very long shottish and unlikely to happen. The second one is probable depending on Thiem's mood. This really seems a tale of two players obviously heading in different directions at the crucial point of the season. Norrie has been in superb form over the last few weeks and I will be expecting him to go off the boil here largely. Thiem definitely will be looking to raise his form and will certainly be needing this tournament as a warm up. It is going to be difficult to see him lose in the early rounds especially after the free gift he gave Sonego last week. Verdict: Thiem to Cruise into next round confidently!

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Tsitsipas vs Paul

I am applying the same theory here backed by the a close scrutiny of the odds movement. I think Tsitsipas should have bagged just enough match practice for Roland Garros and after the major disappointment last week in losing to Djokovic, I see Paul with some kind of realistic chance. Verdict: Paul to win with +5.5 @ 4/6 is real value to me. Good luck all!

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10 hours ago, darko08 said:

Norrie to beat Thiem at 3.94 with Pinnacle
Norrie (+1.5 Sets) to beat Thiem at 2.00 with Pinnacle

Norrie never did well on clay but this year his results on this surface has been impressive (11-3). In Barcelona he reached the QFs after beating Caruso, Khachanov and Goffin. In Estoril he reached the Final after beating J.Sousa, Pedro Martinez, Garin and Cilic. In Rome he beat Cuevas, Cecchinato and Carballes. In his first match here he has beat Moutet in straight sets. Norrie has lost against Nadal, Ramos (in a 3 set match decided by a TB) and Fokina. Thiem has not convinced me at all. In Madrid he lost in straight sets against Zverev after beating De Minaur and Isner in 2 tough matches. Then, he lost in his second match in Rome against Sonego in a 3 set match after beating Fucsovics in another 3 set match. I saw the whole match and Fucsovics could have won that match in 2 sets. If he's playing here is cause he knows he's not ready for the FO so I expect Norrie to have some options here.

Thank you so very much on this one,Darko. Cheers :cheers

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Marcos Giron to beat Flavio Cobolli at 1.62 with Pinnacle

I know that we're all itching to start the French Open, but there are still some matches between now and then. For my two cents, I don't see why Cobolli is rated so highly by the bookies. He's young, sure, but I don't see any promising results in his recent record and I don't think that Giron is here just to throw the match away, especially on Sunday, with the big tournament still so far away.

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