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Racing Chat - Saturday April 10th


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Grand National day and the ground should be riding as it has all week which is on the soft side of good to soft.
 
Here are my daily thoughts on the 7 races at Aintree in race card order:-
 
1.45
A competitive 22 runner 3m 1/2f handicap hurdle kicks off the day with many holding chances. My short list comprises of Cheltenham Pertemps Handicap 3rd Come On Teddy who came from some way back that day and the novice Ballybegg who runs here in preference to the following 2m 4f novice hurdle (was actually left in race by mistake). Trained by Kerry Lee this is the geldings first run in a handicap. A mark of 137 looks workable and the step up in trip will suit as a former Irish pointer. His recent win at Wetherby has been franked already by subsequent victories for the 3rd and 5th. Trainer Lee was talking about a possible tilt at the Ballymore after that win but missed Cheltenham for this and can run well with the only possible negative in that he seems best on soft ground but with the on going watering this week it’s unlikely to ride good or fast.
 
BALLYBEGG 1 point EW 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
2.25
The Mersey Novices’ Hurdle is run over 2m 4f of the Mildmay course and may go the way of Ireland. They took Cheltenham by storm and Ballyadam and Dreal Deal represent them here. Henry De Bromhead’s Ballyadam ran better than the distance he was beaten by Appreciate It in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival as he made a real blunder two from home just as he was going after the impressive winner. He can make amends here with the step up 1/2 mile likely to suit (he was a 3 mile point to point winner). Rachael Blackmore takes over from Jack Kennedy which is hardly a negative. The likely favourite is the Skelton’s My Drogo  who’s on a four timer and looks the chief threat.
 
BALLYADAM 2 points win 3/1 Bet365
 
3.00
The Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase features the return of impressive Arkle Chase winner Shishkin who has scared off the opposition with only four prepared to take him on. Nicky Henderson’s new superstar has 19lb and upwards in hand of his quartet of rivals and should win this with a clear round. A race to sit back and enjoy with no financial interest (though maybe an interest in Shiskin to win by 12L or even bigger maybe interesting)
 
3.35
15 go to post for the Ryanair Stayers Hurdle which see’s round three of the Paisley Park/Thyne Hill battle. It stands at 1-1 following their challenges at Newbury and Ascot earlier in the season and with Thyne Hill having been forced to miss Cheltenham due to a small niggle may be the more fresher horse here and looks the likeliest  winner, though there surely won’t be much between them. Plenty of the others have lengths to make up with the big pair and if forced to select a double figure priced horse to hit the frame it would probably be last season’s Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscar who wasn’t done with when falling in this years renewal.
Dickie Johnson has retired since Thyne Hill last ran but he has an able deputy in the new Philip Hobbs stable jockey Tom O’Brien who actually rode him to victory on his racecourse debut in a bumper at Worcester back in  October 2018.
 
THYNE HILL 2 points win 5/2 William Hill
 
4.15
This 3m 1f handicap chase is not as competitive as it may first look and the one whom stands out is the Kim Bailey trained favourite Happygolucky. He was trained for a handicap mark and ran a stormer at the Cheltenham Festival in the Ultima Handicap Chase when beaten into second place by the veteran Vintage Clouds. The novice has only been put up 2lb for that run and to these eyes still looks well handicapped. Outsider Lalor is an interesting runner who has a good track record but he’s been off for 441 days and that will surely be against him.  Happygolucky is a confident selection.
 
HAPPYGOLUCKY 3 points win 10/3 Bet365
 
5.15
The Grand National with a maximum field of 40 and for all the modifications to the fences over the years it still remains the one race the public love and is a real spectacle. I covered the race in detail earlier in the week but I’ll stick with my two original fancies against the field.
 
ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS 1 point each way 33/1 Bet365 1/4 12345
CLOTH CAP 2 points win 11/2 Paddy Power
 
6.20
A warm favourite here for the finale of the three days, the 2m bumper for which there is a warm favourite in the Nicky Henderson trained Balco Coastal who bolted up on his rules debut in a Kempton ‘bumper for jumpers’. That form has been franked since and he will be hard to beat here. Irish raider The Gossiper has been well punted and trained by Emmet Mullins looks the biggest threat.
 
BALCO COASTAL 2 points win 11/8 William Hill
 
 
 
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Grand National 2021

Best Bet-  MAGIC OF LIGHT 20/1- Irish raider has been here before  ran a cracker a bit of luck needed in a race of this nature   but looks to have a  very strong each way chance.

Next Best- ANIBALE FLY 28/1-Another Irish raider been here befor worn the t-shirt  again looks stong e/w material

Two outsiders- BLAKLION  66/1 & BALLYOPTIC 80/1

All bet e/w with Bet 365 1/4 5places BOG 1/2 stake money back.

Happy punting y'all👍

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Brian Hughes was right to avoid Aintree on Friday and took 3 wins away from Sedgefield to lead by 3 in the jockey championship with just 2 weeks to go, time is fast running out for Harry Cobden to attempt a catch up    latest scores are as follows:   Brian Hughes (137),  Harry Skelton (135), Harry Cobden (123) and all 3 ride at Aintree for national day which confirmed as going ahead on ITV's coverage today and ride the following

Brian Hughes:
1425 - Minella Dream
1615 - Snow Leopardess
1715 - Lake View Lad
1820 - Fruit N Nut

Harry Skelton:
1345 - Ashtown Lad
1425 - My Drogo  WON
1500-  Longhouse Sale
1535 - Roksana
1615 - Spiritofthegames
1715 - Blaklion
1820 - Stage Star  - replaces Harry Cobden 
 
Harry Cobden:   
Stood down after fall in the 1425 race

Whatever your all on for the big race at 1715 good luck all and lets hope all 40 runners and riders return home safe and sound

Other Races:  4 races picked out following on from my shocking 5 out of 5 yesterday and written before the Keeneland selection and are as follows

1300 Chepstow:  Non Runner
Waikiki Waves runner up last time out in a 4 runner contest at Taunton and the lastest success was in November at Leicester runs for the Moore's and conditions may well suit, Sackett won last time at Fakenham over 3m that was after a string of 3x Pull Ups which would be a worry for me jockey negates the 5lb penalty but ill go with Dadsintrouble who comes into this following two 3rd place efforts in hurdles and is 6lb lower in this race for Tim Vaughan hasnt won for 4 years though but could make amends in this race

1440 Lingfield:
Family Fortunes is a course winner but is now on a 17 run losing streak into this finished 5th at Kempton last month over 2 furlongs less so up in trip to 1m 2f for this and with Luke Morris on board but the survey says  burp burp,  Secret Victory won 2 starts ago at Wolverhampton and since finished 3rd at Doncaster and is very consistent in placing should go close for William Buick and Charlie Appleby, Classical Wave comes in here looking for a hat-trick recent being over C&D 3 weeks ago the worry maybe the 9lb rise, my preference is for Fierospeed for the Richard Hannon and Sean Levey partnership won a fortnight ago at Wolverhampton and is only up 4lbs for that victory and has been lightly raced so far  -  WQN 3/1

1515 Lingfield
Viaduct won 1 race last year from just 3 starts  finished 15th of 16 at Doncaster a fortnight ago and this does look indeed a bridge to far, Where's Tom is a C&D winner last seen 70 days ago at Kempton finishing 2nd could go well even with a 3lb rise for that, Devizes also a C&D winner finished 2nd at Kempton 2 weeks ago and is a consistent horse last 5 races has finished no worse than 2nd but this is a class rise so a little worried about that, my pick will be Arctic Sea won last time out over C&D 50 days ago having had the race to the horse's liking up 3lbs but jockey will take 7lb off if getting a clear run may be the one to beat   Thoughts to the connections of Arctic Sea at Lingfield 

1520 Chepstow:
Bashful Boy may well go off favourite for this contest having won at Fontwell nearly 2 weeks ago and the jockey takes 5lbs off and could easily go in,Ginistrelli won at Doncaster last month following a 6 month absence and wind surgery however did fall last time out at Ludlow but hadnt been asked a serious challenge but is up 7lbs since the Doncaster vicotry, , my pick is for DancingwithStorms (nap) who came 2nd at Huntingdon last month following a break of nearly 700 days and could win this following the run there and the jockey takes 7lbs off for the Warren Greatrex horse   Finished 2nd

Edited by ipswich45
results being added
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After writing up a load of nonsense for horses all tailed off today, a shorter post for tomorrow!

All prices Bet365:

1.45 - 1pt e/w Tommy Rapper @ 40/1 (2nd in the race in 2019, similar mark and ran a hugely eyecatching race in the Midlands National last time. I backed it and it jumped/travelled great but just didn't get home so I can see a big run back here over hurdles. 

2.25 - 1pt e/w Llandinabo Lad @ 28/1 (ran too badly to be true last time but given a break and previously has beaten Minella Drama/finished 2nd to My Drogo so could go well at a price)

3.35 - 1pt e/w Diol Ker @ 11/1 (interesting taking on the English stayers but nowt wrong with his form and previously beat Monkfish by 7 lengths!)

4.15 - 1pt e/w Hold The Note @ 14/1 (hope he gets an aggressive ride from on the speed as he stays all day and ran well at Cheltenham - just lost his place with a couple of sloppy jumps at a crucial stage and then came home well again. If holding his pitch, should go well if none the worse for that outing)

5.15 - 1pt e/w Sub Lieutenant @ 50/1 (being nibbled in the betting but has some back class, seems to stay well and in decent enough nick given his age so looks a live outsider), 1pt e/w Yala Enki @ 50/1 (looks overpriced - holds no secrets but is experienced, stays all day, jumps well in the main and is in decent form so you're likely to get a run you'd think) and 1pt e/w Potters Corner @ 22/1 (not too concerned about his most recent form and has the credentials for this). 

6.20 - 1pt e/w Luttrell Lad @ 25/1 (might not be the most glamorous runner but there's substance to his form and keeps pulling out more to defy penalties quite readily. Looks a shade overpriced)> 

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4 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Grand National 2021

Best Bet-  MAGIC OF LIGHT 20/1- Irish raider has been here before  ran a cracker a bit of luck needed in a race of this nature   but looks to have a  very strong each way chance.

Next Best- ANIBALE FLY 28/1-Another Irish raider been here befor worn the t-shirt  again looks stong e/w material

Two outsiders- BLAKLION  66/1 & BALLYOPTIC 80/1

All bet e/w with Bet 365 1/4 5places BOG 1/2 stake money back.

Happy punting y'all👍

That's a great concession with 365, Ted. 👏

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GRAND NATIONAL

Lake View Lad
Burrows Saint
Talkischeap
Anibale Fly
Any Second Now
Lord du Mesnil
Cloth Cap
Mister Malarkey
Canelo

All backed from the Grand National Thread I started.
Placed yesterday, bet365, 5 places, BOG & half stakes back in refundable cash.
BET365 OFFER IS STILL ON UNTIL MIDDAY.

Edited by FleetFanatic
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I prefer the Cheltenham festival, but is there any race that captures the imagination of a nation like The Grand National?  When I was a kid no one was into betting or horses in the household ,although my mum worked in an independent bookies for years . Even still, we all had a quid on the national . Getting the newspaper and looking at the double page spread with all the runners and what colours they would be wearing . You went by a name you liked or a colour . I’ve kept the tradition up with my 3 kids, and they have chosen....

Magic Of Light 16/1

Farclas 20/1

Jett 80/1

 

Edited by Villa Chris
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12.55 Lingfield Peat Moss 100/30

2.40 Lingfield Fierospeed 4/1

4.00 Chepstow Young O'Leary 5/4

An a short priced treble

1.53 Newcastle Diligent 10/11

6.15 Wolverhampton Wakening 4/7

6.45 Wolverhampton Golden Rules 10/11

Am sure Barnes is all over these 3 but has managed to get extremely better prices and has them doubled up with some lama from Peru. 😃😃😃

Then we have the national people spend days and hours studying this race. Forget it pick a couple of horses you fancy stick a £5 on them and enjoy the race

These are my 2 fancies nothing more

Bristol De Mai 28/1 I call this the horse with 2 hearts, never quits never gives up.

Give Me A Copper 40/1 Simply because of the Nicholls/Cobden combination which I like very much.

Their my national studying took less than 5 minutes. Let's see how far your horses get against mine. Enjoy the race everyone hoping all jockeys and horses have a safe ride CNBB.

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Bit of a punt for Grand National day

1.45 Aint Tea Clipper £2 win at 10 = £15.68 p if wins, Come On Teddy £2 win at 8.8 = £13.33 if wins

2.25 My Drago £6.50 win at 7/4 = £17.87 if win

3.35 Thyme Hill £4.50 win at 3.75; £12.13 p if wins; Roksana £1.50 win at11/2 = £9.75 if win

4.15 Happy Go Lucky £4 win at 3/1. Snow Leopardess £1 win at 10/1

5.15 Cloth Cap £2 win at 7.8 = £14; Any Second Now £1 win at 11/1

6.20 Balco Coastal £4.50 win at 3.60 = £11.47, Knappers Hill £1 win at 9/1

2.33 Nc Shaka The King £3.50 win at 4.8 = £13.03 if win

Multiples = a £1 Trixie om My Drago, Cloth Cap and Balco Coastal = £106 if all three win

£33.50 stakes singles & £4 on Trixie = £37.50

Good luck to all today; let's hope that the fancied runners go according to form

 

 

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2 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Quieter day for me today as off for a game of golf soon....

Three French horses just passed onto me. I have them as a double and a single...

0950 Nantes Shallali

1430 Auteuil Impressive

3pt win double 5/2

 

1450 Auteuil Garasil 9/4

2.5pt win

 

Will post other bets up soon.

3pt French double down at the first hurdle

Still the 2.5pt win single to go on Garasil.

UK bets today (all placed last night)...

2.5pt win double 

1353 Newcastle Diligent

1815 Wolverhampton Wakening

3/1

2.5pt win single

1515 Lingfield

Where's Tom 3/1

Then I've taken advantage of the bet365 Grand National deal placing bets for my fiancee but my selections are below....

Cloth Cap 5pts e/w (10pts total)

Taking Risks 1.25pts e/w (2.5pts total)

Anibale Fly .625pts e/w (1.25pts total)

Mister Malarkey 1.25pts e/w (2.5pts total)

Burrows Saint 1pt e/w (2pts total)

Total staked on National = 18.25pts 

Total refunded = 9.125pts

Total stake = 9.125pts.

 

Total staked on French and UK races elsewhere = 10.5pts

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18 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

225 aintree ballyadam 3-1 most 4th ran out of steam late on.

335 aintree paisley park 4.8 matchbook pulled up

515 aintree cloth cap 7.0 betfair exchange pulled up

results dissapointing national day for me betting but enjoyed the racing.

Edited by Wildgarden
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Grand National trend analysis based on last 7 years.

Last ran more than 34 days ago, 1 winner from 127. This reduces the field to 15.

Forecast odds greater than 20/1, 1 from 167. This reduces the field to 3, ANY SECOND NOW, MAGIC OF LIGHT and FARCLAS.

Last time not in 1st 6 0 from 88. This leaves ANY SECOND NOW at 10/1 and FARCLAS at 18/1.

 

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