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Serie A & B Predictions > Apr 9th - 13th


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Away

h%

d%

a%

jwb1%

RawG

aTG1m

HpC

ApC

TotC

Spezia

Crotone

48.9%

23.3%

27.9%

23.1%

2.96

2.91

4.99

3.04

8.03

Parma

Milan

14.9%

19.1%

66.0%

24.6%

3.03

2.96

4.25

6.12

10.37

Udinese

Torino

37.9%

27.6%

34.5%

22.2%

2.33

2.50

4.50

4.79

9.29

Hellas Verona

Lazio

22.0%

24.7%

53.4%

25.6%

2.51

2.62

4.51

5.24

9.75

Sampdoria

Napoli

17.9%

21.0%

61.1%

24.9%

2.90

2.88

4.14

5.40

9.54

Roma

Bologna

60.5%

20.0%

19.5%

23.6%

3.24

3.09

7.37

3.04

10.40

Fiorentina

Atalanta

13.3%

18.6%

68.1%

24.7%

2.98

2.92

3.24

5.13

8.36

 

* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)


Quite strong preference for away favs this round, starting with Milan -3/4 @1.96 and over 2.75 @2.08 in Parma tomorrow. Big game for both, Parma looked dead and buried not long ago, it wasn’t just lack of points but performances were consistently poor, however they clearly improved, started scoring more, lost only 2 of last 7 and their fight against relegation is far from over. 2nd placed Milan have been playing like mid-table side for most of last few months, that superb start they had is pretty much wasted as far as title fight goes, however there is still Champs Lge to play for. Their injury situation is better than few weeks ago, away record sensational (12-1-1), they should have won more points in last 5 games than they did and at current prices are worth a risk here (our min to go for is -3/4 1.90, though it wont be surprise if current price actually improves). Parma have scored in last 8, no surprise if they keep it up, this game looks good for goals, though would not go below 2.00 for o2.75. Sunday, Napoli -3/4 @1.98 at Samp seems ok, this will be 3rd game in a week for visitors but they have good depth, so even after hard Juve game it should not be a big deal, and also - Napoli should be more motivated here, chasing CL spot, with hosts pretty much safe in mid-table. In Verona, Lazio -1/4 @1.88 is another away jolly that seems ok for bet. Hosts are well organized and pesky side, they have better team news here, however they are in safe waters and euro spots are far away as well, so stronger visitors should be more motivated, with fight for CL spots wide open in Italy this season. We still have 8-9 rounds to go, so maybe it is a bit early to give too much weight to motivation, but it is def creeping up now and will be more and more important in coming rounds. Verona and Sassuolo seem to be in no man’s land, so more relaxed and more open football from them is almost inevitable (Sass doing their part in last month already), but for this game v Lazio price on overs is just not tempting enough, would need o2.25 1.90ish to try it. It should be rainy weekend in northern parts of Italy, but not to the extent that affects games, and sat game in Parma may still avoid rain.

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Parma Calcio vs AC Milan

 

 

Parma Calcio

Doubtful: Sprocati (1/0 m), Valenti (5/0 f)

Out (injuries/other): Iacoponi (16/0 d), Osorio (18/0 d), Nicolussi (0/0 m), Brunetta (8/0 m), Sohm (14/0 m), Cyprien (13/0 m), Zirkzee (4/0 f), Inglese (14/0 f), Mihaila (13/2 f), Karamoh (23/2 f)

Suspended:

 

AC Milan

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Romagnoli (20/1 d), Calabria (25/2 d), Maldini (5/0 f)

Suspended:

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

Over/Under Goals
Parma Calcio
15 home games
AC Milan
14 away games
73% Over 1.5 goals 100%
47% Over 2.5 goals 64%
20% Over 3.5 goals 21%
0% Over 4.5 goals 7%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
27% Under 1.5 goals 0%
53% Under 2.5 goals 36%
60% Over 0.5 goals at half-time 86%
33% Over 1.5 goals at half-time 21%
7% Over 2.5 goals at half-time 7%
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Sampdoria

They rank the tenth in the table of the League with 36 points, far away from European games and relegation zone. And they do not play well as host, getting 6W-6L this season.

 

Napoli

They are sitting the fifth place in the table of the League. There are only 2 points separating them from the fourth, Atalanta. They will possibly rank up top four as long as they put more efforts. It is a pity that their two-match winning streak is ended by Juventus in last game.

 

Verdict:

Napoli have never been defeated by Sampdoria since 2018. And Napoli win over Sampdoria at 2-1 this season before. In addition, Napoli play well as host, with more than 50% winning percentage. So Napoli have the tendency to win.

 

Sampdoria VS Napoli

1x2 Pick: 2

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Parma

They play poorly this season, getting 3W-11D-15L this season so far. Now they are the nineteenth in the table of the League. It is because they play so poorly on offensive, with 28 scoring goals in total, which are the weakest offensive team in the League.

 

AC Milan

They are sitting the second place in the table of the League. But there are 11 points separating them from the first, Inter Milan. It seems that they are unlikely to win the title this season. And the gap between them and top five is too narrow. To stay the second, they have to put more efforts.

 

Verdict:

Parma get 2W-2D-6L from AC Milan in the past, which take the lower hand. And there is a big gap between Parma and AC Milan. Even if Parma are long for points, they do not stand the chance to defeat AC Milan. AC Milan will absolutely win in upcoming game.

 

Parma VS AC Milan

1x2 Pick: 2

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Although games against smaller teams have often shown Juventus' problems, he should make sure to leave them behind on Sunday, as all attacking options are back in action and they are willing to finish the season at a high pace. Genoa may have lost just once in their last five games, but they are often overwhelmed when they visit Torino, so we expect the hosts to score at least three times at the Allianz Stadium.

Juventus vs. Genoa @@ over 2,5 goal, odds 1,60

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