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Racing Chat - Thursday 8th April


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The three day Aintree Grand National meet starts tomorrow on good to soft (good in places) ground on both the National and Mildmay courses. There is a spattering of rain around but by the looks of it not enough to change the ground which I feel will ride just on the slow side of good throughout the three days. Certainly not a surface for real mudlarks.
 
In race card order here’s my thoughts on tomorrow’s action:-
 
1.45
The Manifesto Novices’ Chase is run over 2m 4f of the Mildmay course and with officially only 10lb between the whole field it looks open enough.
Fusil Raffles brings Cheltenham form to the table with his 2nd in the Marsh Novices Chase 2L behind stable companion Chantry House. A consistent sort he looks sure to run his race and go close.
Hitman missed Cheltenham so is arguably a fresher horse and has shown in his four outings over the larger obstacles since coming over from France that he has a engine and is another with decent claims. But it’s Ireland again that may take the opener with Emmet Mullin’s The Shunter the selection. He’s mixed hurdling and fencing to great effect this season winning the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, Moorebattle Hurdle at Kelso and the Paddy Power Plate at the Festival, in doing so receiving the £100k bonus for winning at the last two named courses. He’s as tough as nails, stays the trip and is the bet for me here.
 
THE SHUNTER 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill
 
2.20
The Doom Bar Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle usually goes to a horse that ran in the Triumph Hurdle and this year can be no exception with David Pipe’s Adagio taken to win for Tom Scudamore who has the ride on Cloth Cap in Saturday’s National to look forward to. He’s been consistent all season and ran a stormer at the Cheltenham Festival in the Triumph Hurdle to chase home Quilixios with some smart horses behind. I believe he had an issue before racing there and is a better and fitter horse now.
His danger though is the favourite Monmiral who missed Cheltenham and has impressed in winning all four of his outings, latterly when winning the at Haydock in February from Nassalam. He’s only raced on soft ground though although his trainer apparently feels he won’t be unconvinced by a sounder surface. The official handicapper has rated both of them on 147 so there shouldn’t be much between them but at the prices the selection is Adagio. It will be a shock if any of the other four was to win this with the bookmakers betting 12/1 bar the two.
 
ADAGIO 2 points win @ 7/4 Bet365
 
2.50
The Betway Bowl will be run over just short of 3m 1f with Paul Nicholl’s Clan Des Obeaux heading the market having missed Cheltenham and racing in first time cheek pieces here. As a dual King George Chase winner he certainly has the class and ability to blow these away but he’s been a bit below par this season and those cheek pieces just suggest that connections are just struggling to get him to fire on all cylinders. At the prices I’m happy to oppose him.
Native River is the highest rated chaser in Britain but was off the bit early in the Gold Cup and was struggling from a long way out. Dickie Johnson is not around anymore to ride him and Jonjo O’Neill Junior will have a hard job to keep him motivated.
Tiger Roll should be running in the Grand National not here and were he to win his connections are going to have egg firmly on their faces! Mister Fisher’s jumping looked a bit iffy last time and my two against the field are Ruth Jefferson’s Waiting Patiently who although not having won for three years has run plenty of good races in defeat including when runner up to Frodon in this season’s King George. This trip at a sharp track like this should suit and he can run well.
The best value bet in the race for me though is Tom George’s Clondaw Castle who proved he stayed 3 miles when winning in handicap company at Kempton last time and although he has a bit to find with a few of these on official ratings he is unexposed over this trip and his quick and efficient jumping will help him around this sharp track.
 
WAITING PATIENTLY 1 point to win @ 4/1 William Hill
CLONDAW CASTLE 1 point each way @ 15/2 Betfred 1/5 odds 123
 
3.25
The Betway Aintree Hurdle looks an open renewal with bookmakers going 4/1 the field in places. McFabulous disappointed last time at Fontwell behind Brewin’upastorm though is 6lb better off now for that 5 1/2L beating. I’m not sure that form is good enough mind.
Abacadabras is stepping up in trip here but has plenty of ability if a bit quirky whilst the likes of Silver Streak and Song For Someone also have fair shouts. Nicky Henderson saddles two and it wouldn’t be a shock if Buzz ran well ahead of his stable companion Buveur D’Air.
The one I like here though is the lightly raced Jason The Miltant trained by that man Henry De Bromhead and ridden by Rachael Blackmore. He missed Cheltenham to wait for this and impressed when winning a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse in February.
 
JASON THE MILITANT 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365
 
4.05
The Randox Foxhunters is not my speciality and I’ll leave this race to our Hunter Chase expert Darran who’s thoughts will no doubt appear here later. I can pass on a tip for the Dr Newland trained Dashing Perk however but a no bet race for me at present.
 
4.40
The Red Rum Handicap Chase is run over just short of 2m and I think there’s a decent bet here in Dan Skelton’s Destrier. He’s not shown much in three outings this season on boggy ground with the handicapper dropping him 10lb. Back on better ground and a likely forcing ride from brother Harry he can run these ragged if anywhere near his 3rd in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase two years ago or the 3rd in the Haldon Gold Cup 6 months later off of a 15lb higher mark than he can race off of here. He’s been well supported in the last 24 hours but he’s still worth backing each way especially with those firms paying extra places here.
2019 winner Moon Over Germany marks appeal as well as several others but it’s the Skelton runner for me.
 
DESTRIER 2 points each way  @ 5/1 Paddy Power 1/5 odds 12345
 
5.15
The 2m 209 yards mares bumper can go the way of the Pam Sly trained Eileendover who’s impressed me immensely this season winning all three of her starts at Huntingdon and Wetherby over 1m 5f and at Huntingdon when stepping up to 2m on heavy ground in listed company (form that has worked out extremely well). She’s a grand daughter to Sly’s 2006 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa and will apparently embark on a flat campaign after this. She has one big danger in the Skelton’s Elle Est Belle who ran a stormer in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham when third to Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit, that’s very good form but I think that Eileendover is very good and under Paul O’Brien who’s rode her twice to victory already is very good and make her the days best bet despite her skinny price.
 
EILEENDOVER (pictured below) 4 points win @ 10/11 William Hill
 
 
 
Eileendover.jpg
 
 
 
 
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Jockey Champs Scores:    Hughes (134)  v Skelton  (134) v  Cobden (123),  unsurprisingly all 3 are at Aintree 

Brian Hughes:                                             
1420 - Fiveandtwenty                           
1450 - Waiting Patiently                         
1640 - Gaelik Coast                              
1715 - Milans Edge           

Harry Skelton
1345 - Protektorat   WON
1420 - John Lockie 
1640 - Destrier
1715 - Elle Est Belle

Harry Cobden:
1345 - Hitman  
1420 - Monmiral WON
1450 - Clan Des Obeaux WON
1525 - McFabulous
1640 - Getaway Trump
1715 - Heartbreaker

Elsewhere we have jumps at Taunton and over the 2 jumps meetings, Owners Group have 4 runners 
Chez Hans (1400 Taunton), Calva D'Auge (1540 Taunton), Getaway Trump (1640 Aintree) and Rock Legend (1730 Taunton)  and could quite feasible see the first 3 win and Rock Legend could get a place chance 

1625 Southwell: Looks a decent race with Brandy Station who won well the other day at 22/1 over C&D and goes up against Kyllukey who won last time out again over C&D 

Happy Valley will start the day off however and selections are below:
1145 - 7 Well Dragon  3rd
1215 - 1 Methane  2nd
1245 - 2 Greatful Heart  Unplaced
1315 - 1 Harmony And Rich Unplaced
1345 - 9 Hero Star Unplaced
1415 - 6 Gratwick Unplaced
1445 - 9 Stay Chill  Unplaced
1515 - 1 Kinda Cool Unplaced
1550 - 11 Romantic Combo

Edited by ipswich45
results being added
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Two doubles for me today and then some small plays for fun at Aintree which I'm not advising pts for....

2pt win double

1300 Southwell True Hero

1335 Southwell Deevious Beau NAP

4/1

 

2.5pt win double

1335 Southwell Deevious Beau NAP

1715 Aintree Eileendover 

3/1

Aintree

1.45 Fusil Raffles win
2.20 Monmiral win
2.50 Waiting Patiently win & Clondaw e/w
3.25 Jason The Militant win & Brewin'upastorm e/w
4.05 Billaway win & Cat Tiger e/w
4.45 Destrier win
5.15 Eileendover 

Good luck everyone 🐎💷🐎💷

Edited by Barnes1882
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All prices Bet365:

1.45 Aintree - 1pt e/w Phoenix Way @ 28/1

I don't have a strong preference for any of those at the head of the betting here and as a result, I'm willing to take a chance on the lightly-raced Phoenix Way. Comes here a fresher horse than these having skipped Cheltenham and has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive here. Won his novice hurdle readily from the smart Third Wind and then won a 3 mile handicap on soft ground last January. Has raced over 2 miles in two chase runs - getting up late to win a decent race two starts back before having clear excuses last time (bled). Sure to improve for the extra distance here, runs well fresh and keeps enough for himself through races so it's difficult to know where his potential ends. Worth a go as a live outsider.

2.20 Aintree - 1pt e/w John Locke @ 18/1

Similar story here too as I think Monmiral is the likely winner but makes no appeal at the price so I'm going to chance John Locke who ran a highly promising race behind Tritonic at Kempton on hurdling debut - travelling sweetly throughout and looking a live danger at the top of the home run. He traded at 6/4 in running which was an achievement in itself in a hot race having never run over jumps before. Ought to improve for the experience and for the run, with it being his first outing in a few months and could be a live outsider here with a better finishing effort.

2.50 Aintree - 2pts win Native River @ 13/2

Clearly would enjoy more of a slog but I think he'll find it easier to lie up with the pace here than in the Gold Cup with no Frodon in the field and Tiger Roll the only one likely to contest it so I think he'll be able to hold a pitch here and the ground isn't likely to be really lively. Would have won here earlier in the season if they didn't remove several fences and I like the make up of this race. Clan Des Obeaux is a danger but hasn't been quite at his best this season and a few of these are hold up horses, including a couple who are yet to fully show they stay this trip. If there are any stamina doubts, Native River is the one to find them out and I think he's got a big run in him from the front.

3.25 Aintree - 2pts win McFabulous @ 5/1

Question marks over most of these but I thought McFabulous could enjoy the way the race looks set to be run and with a few stepping up in trip here, I'd sooner side with one who sees this out well given there are two or three guaranteed front runners in the race. He'll enjoy a good pace and I think the return to a flat track here and better ground can suit him too after being beaten at Fontwell last time. Ought to turn that form around at the weights today and he comes here fresh having bypassed Cheltenham.

4.05 Aintree - 1pt e/w Latenightpass @ 7/1

Has taken its form to a new level the last twice, causing a shock in a hot race two starts back and then ran really well from the front at Cheltenham. Is a free going, sound jumping sort who will race handy here and I think will take a lot of stopping. I think he's the type to relish this challenge, anything like its last two runs give him a big chance and he's only an 8 year old so I think he can run his elders into the ground from the front - or close to - here.

4.40 Aintree - 1pt e/w Sully D'oc @ 12/1

Ran well for a long way at Cheltenham before fading after hitting 2 out but I think he has enough speed for 2 miles and he's not finished with much punch in two starts at Cheltenham now. The form of his run behind Clondaw Castle two starts back reads well, especially as he would have gone very close to winning but for sprawling on landing at the last and there's still some scope in this mark now I think. I think he can race handier today with guaranteed stamina and is handicapped to go close. 

5.15 Aintree - 1pt e/w Where's Maud Gone @ 16/1

Is a well bred mare and has done little wrong in two wins so far in her career. Was a ready winner at Thurles on debut and then travelled powerfully when getting on top of a nice horse at Ayr when last seen. The front two were clear that day, she gave 7lbs to the runner up and shaped as if a better gallop would suit her as she is a smooth mover. I think she's more than capable of making the first four here and it wouldn't surprise me if she was good enough to win if things fall her way. 

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3 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Two doubles for me today and then some small plays for fun at Aintree which I'm not advising pts for....

2pt win double

1300 Southwell True Hero

1335 Southwell Deevious Beau NAP

4/1

 

2.5pt win double

1335 Southwell Deevious Beau NAP

1715 Aintree Eileendover 

3/1

Aintree

1.45 Fusil Raffles win
2.20 Monmiral win
2.50 Waiting Patiently win & Clondaw e/w
3.25 Jason The Militant win & Brewin'upastorm e/w
4.05 Billaway win & Cat Tiger e/w
4.45 Destrier win
5.15 Eileendover 

Good luck everyone 🐎💷🐎💷

First double lost, poor ride from the jockey.

Having one more....

2.5pt win double

1335 Deevious Beau

1440 May Night

5/2

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20 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

145 aintree fusil raffles 3-1 bet365 pulled up with a problem by looks of it looked winner till then

215 aintree adagio 13-8 ladbrokes 2nd messed up last fence and lost momebtum

245 aintree clan des obeaux 3-1  paddy power won

315 aintree aberacadas 5.2 smarkets won

445 aintree grey diamond 10-1 ew bet victor 5th placed (top 5)

results 6.7 plus lsp up.

ill try post tomorrow some more winners.

Edited by Wildgarden
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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Haha, even though I have had £3 to win on Kylluky and it has the champ Ben curtis on it, I won't mind if yoour one beats mine.  Just wondered why you selected it?

 

Hi mate.

Was split between the two of them last night, watched last race back of Brandy and was impressed. Left it and told myself if support came for one I would back it. Brandy was backed heavily and I was edging towards that last night and although I only got on late, I felt confident and went for it. Luckily it paid off and pulled back some of my losses. 

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30 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

Hi mate.

Was split between the two of them last night, watched last race back of Brandy and was impressed. Left it and told myself if support came for one I would back it. Brandy was backed heavily and I was edging towards that last night and although I only got on late, I felt confident and went for it. Luckily it paid off and pulled back some of my losses. 

Very interesting reply.  Kyllukey was 5lbs better off with Brandy Station and obviously did not run anywhere near to its form with that horse.  I was duped by Racing Post Spotlght and the horse being top rated and selected by Timeform.  However, as you say, the market was strongly in favour of Brandy Station as was reflected in its price.  Hence on this occasion the market clearly indicated the best horse to back.  Now contrast this with yesterday's 1.00 at Lingfield where the market, the RP and the world and its wife were promoting Rosie Powers overnight (I believe you put that one up).  The next morning when I checked the market had turned against the filly and made Crimson Sound an odds on favourite.  Crimson Sound won at evens and Rosie Powers finished third but not beaten far after ducking left.  I know you quite often get good prices early doors but when something like that happens I can't help wondering if the safest option is to leave taking a plunge on a selection right up to about 1o minutes before a race.  What do you think?      

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6 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very interesting reply.  Kyllukey was 5lbs better off with Brandy Station and obviously did not run anywhere near to its form with that horse.  I was duped by Racing Post Spotlght and the horse being top rated and selected by Timeform.  However, as you say, the market was strongly in favour of Brandy Station as was reflected in its price.  Hence on this occasion the market clearly indicated the best horse to back.  Now contrast this with yesterday's 1.00 at Lingfield where the market, the RP and the world and its wife were promoting Rosie Powers overnight (I believe you put that one up).  The next morning when I checked the market had turned against the filly and made Crimson Sound an odds on favourite.  Crimson Sound won at evens and Rosie Powers finished third but not beaten far after ducking left.  I know you quite often get good prices early doors but when something like that happens I can't help wondering if the safest option is to leave taking a plunge on a selection right up to about 1o minutes before a race.  What do you think?      

I'm still learning myself but finding it's actually best to leave backing until the race approaches. So often, if a horse is seeing a lot of movement say 5 minutes before the off, then that is a great sign a lot of the time. It can however sometimes be the bookies sticking money down to put people off certain horses or encourage bets on others to level the books. Several times over the past couple of weeks, I've kept checking the markets and backed a horse late and they've won so many times. It isn't always the case obviously or we would all be rich. There are times however when backing early is the best option. For example today, you would have seen I had Deevious Beau as my NAP and also in three separate doubles. I would not have that horse losing and got a nice price last night and it went off around 8/13. That's when I back the night before, when I am pretty certain the horse doesn't lose. Oddschecker is a great app mate, shows all the market movers and if I have a spare 10 minutes now and again, I'll go on and see if any horses have significant money on them. If they were on my list the night before I'll back them and this has been very successful for me. Since Cheltenham and putting 5pts in my account, I now have 100pts and it seems to be going well. Further evidence of what I have been saying is the 1950 race tonight. I looked around 1940 and saw money was coming for Autumn Flight. Last night I couldn't split Autumn and Canford so left it, however it was being backed and I stuck 3pts on at 7/4. I was lucky and it just held on and returned a nice 8.25pts. I didn't put up on here as I backed it late but it was a nice 5.25pt profit to actually turn the day around into profit. I don't like chasing, I try my best not to do it but I've been guilty a few times recently of doing it. Luckily it's paid off most of the time but there will be times when I regret it. 

To summarise, by creating a shortlist of horses you really like the night before and then checking to see if any serious money is coming for them on the day, this seems to be working pretty well for me currently. Rather than just looking for market movers and backing blind without any research and just due to the money. I still get it wrong quite often but as long as my pts keep going up in my bank, I'll keep going. 

Just look at my selections today at Aintree, they were shocking on the whole. If I had backed them I would have had a terrible day. I suppose I'm just getting better at when to step back and when to increase stakes when really confident like today.

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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

4.25 Sou Kyllukey £3 win at 5.3 = £12.64

RESULTS UPDATE

My sole published bet got beat so a £3 loss today.  This makes my balance now £539.21 (Bank £500)

Aintree and Sedgefield over the jumps tomorrow so may focus on Sedgefield for a winner however can't help looking at Aintree for fun bets.  Kicking myself for not backing Rachael Blackmore in the 5.15 today on Me Too Please 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

I'm still learning myself but finding it's actually best to leave backing until the race approaches. So often, if a horse is seeing a lot of movement say 5 minutes before the off, then that is a great sign a lot of the time. It can however sometimes be the bookies sticking money down to put people off certain horses or encourage bets on others to level the books. Several times over the past couple of weeks, I've kept checking the markets and backed a horse late and they've won so many times. It isn't always the case obviously or we would all be rich. There are times however when backing early is the best option. For example today, you would have seen I had Deevious Beau as my NAP and also in three separate doubles. I would not have that horse losing and got a nice price last night and it went off around 8/13. That's when I back the night before, when I am pretty certain the horse doesn't lose. Oddschecker is a great app mate, shows all the market movers and if I have a spare 10 minutes now and again, I'll go on and see if any horses have significant money on them. If they were on my list the night before I'll back them and this has been very successful for me. Since Cheltenham and putting 5pts in my account, I now have 100pts and it seems to be going well. Further evidence of what I have been saying is the 1950 race tonight. I looked around 1940 and saw money was coming for Autumn Flight. Last night I couldn't split Autumn and Canford so left it, however it was being backed and I stuck 3pts on at 7/4. I was lucky and it just held on and returned a nice 8.25pts. I didn't put up on here as I backed it late but it was a nice 5.25pt profit to actually turn the day around into profit. I don't like chasing, I try my best not to do it but I've been guilty a few times recently of doing it. Luckily it's paid off most of the time but there will be times when I regret it. 

To summarise, by creating a shortlist of horses you really like the night before and then checking to see if any serious money is coming for them on the day, this seems to be working pretty well for me currently. Rather than just looking for market movers and backing blind without any research and just due to the money. I still get it wrong quite often but as long as my pts keep going up in my bank, I'll keep going. 

Just look at my selections today at Aintree, they were shocking on the whole. If I had backed them I would have had a terrible day. I suppose I'm just getting better at when to step back and when to increase stakes when really confident like today.

Many thanks for your generous insight into how you come to your selections.  I am sure it will help a lot of people understand why you are so successful 🙂

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