Racing Chat - Thursday 8th April

[The Brigadier]

The three day Aintree Grand National meet starts tomorrow on good to soft (good in places) ground on both the National and Mildmay courses. There is a spattering of rain around but by the looks of it not enough to change the ground which I feel will ride just on the slow side of good throughout the three days. Certainly not a surface for real mudlarks.

 

In race card order here’s my thoughts on tomorrow’s action:-

 

1.45

The Manifesto Novices’ Chase is run over 2m 4f of the Mildmay course and with officially only 10lb between the whole field it looks open enough.

Fusil Raffles brings Cheltenham form to the table with his 2nd in the Marsh Novices Chase 2L behind stable companion Chantry House. A consistent sort he looks sure to run his race and go close.

Hitman missed Cheltenham so is arguably a fresher horse and has shown in his four outings over the larger obstacles since coming over from France that he has a engine and is another with decent claims. But it’s Ireland again that may take the opener with Emmet Mullin’s The Shunter the selection. He’s mixed hurdling and fencing to great effect this season winning the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, Moorebattle Hurdle at Kelso and the Paddy Power Plate at the Festival, in doing so receiving the £100k bonus for winning at the last two named courses. He’s as tough as nails, stays the trip and is the bet for me here.

 

THE SHUNTER 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

2.20

The Doom Bar Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle usually goes to a horse that ran in the Triumph Hurdle and this year can be no exception with David Pipe’s Adagio taken to win for Tom Scudamore who has the ride on Cloth Cap in Saturday’s National to look forward to. He’s been consistent all season and ran a stormer at the Cheltenham Festival in the Triumph Hurdle to chase home Quilixios with some smart horses behind. I believe he had an issue before racing there and is a better and fitter horse now.

His danger though is the favourite Monmiral who missed Cheltenham and has impressed in winning all four of his outings, latterly when winning the at Haydock in February from Nassalam. He’s only raced on soft ground though although his trainer apparently feels he won’t be unconvinced by a sounder surface. The official handicapper has rated both of them on 147 so there shouldn’t be much between them but at the prices the selection is Adagio. It will be a shock if any of the other four was to win this with the bookmakers betting 12/1 bar the two.

 

ADAGIO 2 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

2.50

The Betway Bowl will be run over just short of 3m 1f with Paul Nicholl’s Clan Des Obeaux heading the market having missed Cheltenham and racing in first time cheek pieces here. As a dual King George Chase winner he certainly has the class and ability to blow these away but he’s been a bit below par this season and those cheek pieces just suggest that connections are just struggling to get him to fire on all cylinders. At the prices I’m happy to oppose him.

Native River is the highest rated chaser in Britain but was off the bit early in the Gold Cup and was struggling from a long way out. Dickie Johnson is not around anymore to ride him and Jonjo O’Neill Junior will have a hard job to keep him motivated.

Tiger Roll should be running in the Grand National not here and were he to win his connections are going to have egg firmly on their faces! Mister Fisher’s jumping looked a bit iffy last time and my two against the field are Ruth Jefferson’s Waiting Patiently who although not having won for three years has run plenty of good races in defeat including when runner up to Frodon in this season’s King George. This trip at a sharp track like this should suit and he can run well.

The best value bet in the race for me though is Tom George’s Clondaw Castle who proved he stayed 3 miles when winning in handicap company at Kempton last time and although he has a bit to find with a few of these on official ratings he is unexposed over this trip and his quick and efficient jumping will help him around this sharp track.

 

WAITING PATIENTLY 1 point to win @ 4/1 William Hill

CLONDAW CASTLE 1 point each way @ 15/2 Betfred 1/5 odds 123

 

3.25

The Betway Aintree Hurdle looks an open renewal with bookmakers going 4/1 the field in places. McFabulous disappointed last time at Fontwell behind Brewin’upastorm though is 6lb better off now for that 5 1/2L beating. I’m not sure that form is good enough mind.

Abacadabras is stepping up in trip here but has plenty of ability if a bit quirky whilst the likes of Silver Streak and Song For Someone also have fair shouts. Nicky Henderson saddles two and it wouldn’t be a shock if Buzz ran well ahead of his stable companion Buveur D’Air.

The one I like here though is the lightly raced Jason The Miltant trained by that man Henry De Bromhead and ridden by Rachael Blackmore. He missed Cheltenham to wait for this and impressed when winning a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse in February.

 

JASON THE MILITANT 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

4.05

The Randox Foxhunters is not my speciality and I’ll leave this race to our Hunter Chase expert Darran who’s thoughts will no doubt appear here later. I can pass on a tip for the Dr Newland trained Dashing Perk however but a no bet race for me at present.

 

4.40

The Red Rum Handicap Chase is run over just short of 2m and I think there’s a decent bet here in Dan Skelton’s Destrier. He’s not shown much in three outings this season on boggy ground with the handicapper dropping him 10lb. Back on better ground and a likely forcing ride from brother Harry he can run these ragged if anywhere near his 3rd in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase two years ago or the 3rd in the Haldon Gold Cup 6 months later off of a 15lb higher mark than he can race off of here. He’s been well supported in the last 24 hours but he’s still worth backing each way especially with those firms paying extra places here.

2019 winner Moon Over Germany marks appeal as well as several others but it’s the Skelton runner for me.

 

DESTRIER 2 points each way  @ 5/1 Paddy Power 1/5 odds 12345

 

5.15

The 2m 209 yards mares bumper can go the way of the Pam Sly trained Eileendover who’s impressed me immensely this season winning all three of her starts at Huntingdon and Wetherby over 1m 5f and at Huntingdon when stepping up to 2m on heavy ground in listed company (form that has worked out extremely well). She’s a grand daughter to Sly’s 2006 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa and will apparently embark on a flat campaign after this. She has one big danger in the Skelton’s Elle Est Belle who ran a stormer in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham when third to Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit, that’s very good form but I think that Eileendover is very good and under Paul O’Brien who’s rode her twice to victory already is very good and make her the days best bet despite her skinny price.

 

EILEENDOVER (pictured below) 4 points win @ 10/11 William Hill

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ipswich45]

Jockey Champs Scores:    Hughes (134)  v Skelton  (134) v  Cobden (123),  unsurprisingly all 3 are at Aintree 

Brian Hughes:                                             
1420 - Fiveandtwenty                           
1450 - Waiting Patiently                         
1640 - Gaelik Coast                              
1715 - Milans Edge           

Harry Skelton
1345 - Protektorat   WON
1420 - John Lockie 
1640 - Destrier
1715 - Elle Est Belle

Harry Cobden:
1345 - Hitman  
1420 - Monmiral WON
1450 - Clan Des Obeaux WON
1525 - McFabulous
1640 - Getaway Trump
1715 - Heartbreaker

Elsewhere we have jumps at Taunton and over the 2 jumps meetings, Owners Group have 4 runners 
Chez Hans (1400 Taunton), Calva D'Auge (1540 Taunton), Getaway Trump (1640 Aintree) and Rock Legend (1730 Taunton)  and could quite feasible see the first 3 win and Rock Legend could get a place chance 

1625 Southwell: Looks a decent race with Brandy Station who won well the other day at 22/1 over C&D and goes up against Kyllukey who won last time out again over C&D 

Happy Valley will start the day off however and selections are below:
1145 - 7 Well Dragon  3rd
1215 - 1 Methane  2nd
1245 - 2 Greatful Heart  Unplaced
1315 - 1 Harmony And Rich Unplaced
1345 - 9 Hero Star Unplaced
1415 - 6 Gratwick Unplaced
1445 - 9 Stay Chill  Unplaced
1515 - 1 Kinda Cool Unplaced
1550 - 11 Romantic Combo

Edited April 8, 2021 by ipswich45
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