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The Masters 2021


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Really looking forward to this, Justin Thomas is the man in form and has a good Masters record 22-17-12-4 in the last 4 years, comes near the top in a lot of the stats the price seems reasonable 12/1 each way 9 places william hill. I'm also going for Patrick Reed 33/1 each way 8 places bet365. Near the top in putting stats and in good form this season with a win back in January and a top 10 in the WCG.  

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Thought I was being clever when backing this player @ 40-1 for Augusta when he was high on the leader board in the opening round last week, but he ended up 54th!

But he is a quality player who will improve on his debut 19th here in November

Scottie Scheffler

Each Way @ 50-1 [eight places] Bet 365

 

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I'm contemplating a few outright winners with Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas leading my thinking at the moment. There's been a lot of hype around Lee Westwood being the oldest winner ever and even though I don't think he will win it I think he could be worth an e/w bet at 41.00 with Bet365. Webb Simpson is a leftfield choice I'm considering given his form and he's another that could be decent e/w value at 36.00 with Bet365.

In terms of a wildcard option, I do like @owenclass going for Collin Morikawa. He's shot up the world rankings and could be a dangerous player. I'm reluctant to back Bryson DeChambeau. I'm not sure the course plays into his style of play very well but he is learning to adapt his game a bit better so we'll see.

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I've noticed on Skybet that they are offering a free £1 bet for every birdie if you bet with them. I've taken Thomas myself as a main bet. I can see Spieth being hammered in the betting but I just feel like he always has that one bad round. 

With a huge 10 places on offer with Paddy, I've also gone for Xander, Morikawa, Im and Kokrak as my outsiders.

3pts J.Thomas to win US Masters 11/1 Skybet
-------------------------------------------------------------
2pts e/w X.Schauffele to win US Masters 22/1 paddypower (10 places, 1/5th)
1pt e/w C.Morikawa to win US Masters 25/1 paddypower (10 places, 1/5th)
1pt e/w S.Im to win US Masters 45/1 paddypower (10 places, 1/5th)
1pt e/w J.Kokrak to win US Masters 80/1 paddypower (10 places, 1/5th)

 

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Based on a book I read 30 years ago................It suggested that a player improves after the birth of his first child(not sure about LPGA).

Something to do with the relief of the birth and the joy of having a child.

John Rahm became a daddy for the first time on Sunday so he will be carrying my money

2 pence e/w  John Rahm to win the masters 11/1 Sky Bet (11 places 1/5 the odds)

 

 

(disclaimer I lost £2000 in the 90's following advice of aforementioned book)

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I'm backing six players for the straight win ahead of the start, all on the assumption that the top of the market is priced fairly at best whilst anything beyond 50 to 1 is that much less likely to take home the trophy. I may add to my position at the end of each round, but for now I've just got these on the exchanges, all of which I think occupy the sweet spot of good prices with a realistic chance of success.

5pts Rahm to win US Masters @ 14.50

5pts Cantlay to win US Masters @ 25.00

10pts Schauffele to win US Masters @ 29.00

5pts Morikawa to win US Masters @ 38.00

15pts Reed to win US Masters @ 44.00

10pts Hovland to win US Masters 48.00

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A Masters in April, is totally different to one in November. So I think you can discard much of the last Masters results. There are a few keys to scoring well on this course. 

Experience ... every year the Masters is played in the same place. So playing 20 to 30 Championship rounds there will definitely help a player. A rookie is just not going to win.

The course has to set up for you. The problem this year (if you a right to left mover of the ball), is that right to left brings big bounce topspin. This year the fairways will run out. Left to right is far more controlled. So the power fade is really the shot to have here.

You have to play the 16 par 5 opportunities really well. A winner is probably gonna be close to 14 under for the week on these 4 holes.

With dry bouncy fairways, a straight hitter is gonna do well. Straight and reasonably long is probably winner (Morikawa, Kisner. Kuchar), Thomas).

I don't fancy de Chambeau this week. It's not like he can overpower this golf course and others can't.  Most of the field will be hitting 2nd shots at the green on 3 of 4 par 5's.

Looking at the par 5's;

#2 is a difficult green to hit (yet Oosthuizen made Albatross there some years ago). But a layup in the right place seems better than an uncontrolled shot at the green.

#8 is a brute. Long, uphill. Not many are gonna be putting for Eagle there... A solid 2nd and a good chip probably makes a birdie 75% of the time.

#13 Is probably the easiest of the par 5's to hit in 2. Certainly not overpowering. Just how much risk are you gonna take ... how far left off the Tee can you risk it?

#15 not difficult, and in reach for probably 90% of the field.

So for me driving accuracy brings guys like Morikawa, Webb Simpson, Kisner, Kuchar, D Johnstone. Kisner has the best PGA stats for missing the rough (83% of the time). Morikawa is a leader in both fairways hit and greens in regulation.

 

A few players I don't fancy at all. McIIroy, Mickelson, Tony Finau, Schwartzel, de Chambeau.

 

My dark horses Franscesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen , Patrick Reed, Viktor Hovland.

 

Three bets for outright. Jon Rham, Speith, D.Johnstone.

 

Edited by neilovan
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It was a strange final round in the end. After Matsuyama bogeyed the first and his lead was just one shot, it looked like it might go down to the wire. Not long after that though, and with the likes of Schauffele over par for the day and Matsuyama under, it looked like it was going to be a procession to the title for the Japanese. After that, and when it seemed all was lost and the pressure was off, players in the chasing pack started picking up shots. Schauffele in particular went on a run, getting three birdies in a row to get right back in it. When Matsuyama managed to go into the water at the back of the 15th which led to a bogey and Schauffele got his forth birdie in a row at the same hole, the lead was down to a couple of shots and it was game on.

I'd have to agree with @Fader about Schauffele in terms of what happened next. Playing first at the 16th, with all the momentum in his favour having just made a birdie and with Matsuyama on the ropes following the strange decision to go for the green at the last hole when the sensible play was to lay up and protect what was still a significant lead, he hit his tee shot short and into the drink. At that point, anything hit onto the green was going to put real pressure on Matsuyama, but by going into the water which almost guaranteed a bogey at best, Matsuyama was able to hit his shot with much less pressure. He found the green, albeit a long way from the hole, and that was Schauffele's challenge over. Matsuyama could even afford a bogey as Schauffele recorded a triple. It really did seem like, as he stood to hit his tee shot, Schauffele suddenly realised he was back in with a real chance of winning and he tightened up. He'd been picking up shots in previous holes when there was no pressure as he was so far behind, but when it came time to hit a pressure shot with him right back in it he made a total hash of it. In the end, Matsuyama just about fell over the line with a bogey at the last for a one-stroke victory, and that's when Schauffele's meltdown really showed itself for how decisive it was.

As for my bets, Cantlay was a total write-off - not sure what the issue was there but he should never have posted the total he did after two rounds. Morikawa and Hovland flitted around the middle of the leader board most of the time, whilst Rahm, Reed and obviously Schauffele landed in the place money - that wasn't any use to me as I only bet outright, but it did at least suggest that the players I backed were worth backing and with a bit more luck I might have hit a winner. If Schauffele hadn't found the water at 16 then maybe he would have been that winner - who knows - but then having said that he shouldn't really have been as close as he was at that point. Only Matsuyama will know what he was thinking going for the 15th green in two when he was so obviously feeling the pressure - that's the only explanation for shooting so far past it and into the water on the 16th hole - but in the end it didn't cost him and you'd have to say he was a deserved winner as he was the only player that was seriously in contention on the final day that shot a really low round during the tournament with his 65 on moving day.

Edited by Torque
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On 4/7/2021 at 11:47 AM, Striker said:

Thought I was being clever when backing this player @ 40-1 for Augusta when he was high on the leader board in the opening round last week, but he ended up 54th!

But he is a quality player who will improve on his debut 19th here in November

Scottie Scheffler

Each Way @ 50-1 [eight places] Bet 365

 

Tied 18th...not disgraced but never got into the thick of the action

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