World Championships (inc Qualifiers)

[Fader]

disappointed with Carrington tonight. Should be beating Davis. Hopefully Milkins can win Tuesday for atleast one outright winner.

[Fader]

I am going to go with Hallworth again tomorrow. He has Jordan Brown in the morning. Hallworth looked calm and composed in and amongst the balls and I think if he can make use of a good start, he could come through that match. The other I like, is Ursenbacher to beat O'Donnell. Ursenbacher looked really good in his last round match against the impressive Kleckers. 

2.5pts S.Hallworth to beat J.Brown 11/5 betway
5.5pts A.Ursenbacher to beat M.O'Donnell 10/11 willhill
1pt treble - Hallworth, Ursenbacher, Woollaston & M.Stevens 12/1 betway

WC Tips -2.5pts

[Fader]

2 wins, yesterday. Judgement day today/tomorrow. Lots on the line and lots of bottling, I would have assumed. A few 50/50s that I like today but I'm going to limit the "feeling bets" to an accy and just go with the one. Selt to beat Donaldson. Selt looks bang in form right now and although Donaldson has a perfect record against him, I'm not sure we'll see a better time for Selt to play Scott.

Also, I'm going to stick a couple of points on a boosted bet with Paddy for the main competition (these Quallies don't count) and it's for a century in every match.

5pts M.Selt to beat S.Donaldson 11/10 paddypower
1pt accy - Lu Ning, Haotian, Selt & Milkins 14/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)
-----------------------------------------------
2pts A Century to be scored in every match of the WC 12/1 paddypower

[charliepie]

Didn't think they had enough referees to play 8 matches at the same time! Wonder why they didn't split them 4/4 as usual? Milkins been a disappointment going down 1-6 but Selt is 2-2 so every chance. The century bet is a good interest bet for the champs but there's always those scrappy matches which will let you down especially in the first round! Be nice if it comes off though!

*edit* just realised it's not best of 11 so that explains it now!

Edited April 13, 2021 by charliepie

[Fader]

1 minute ago, charliepie said:

Didn't think they had enough referees to play 8 matches at the same time! Wonder why they didn't split them 4/4 as usual? Milkins been a disappointment going down 1-6 but Selt is 2-2 so every chance. The century bet is a good interest bet for the champs but there's always those scrappy matches which will let you down especially in the first round! Be nice if it comes off though!

Yeah, always them scrappy matches but when there is going to probably be atleast 12-15 frames in every match, you'd like to think that one century is floating about. Fingers crossed. Milkins has been pathetic but Selt, I still feel confident in. Leads 3-2 now.

[Robaldo]

2 hours ago, charliepie said:

Didn't think they had enough referees to play 8 matches at the same time! Wonder why they didn't split them 4/4 as usual? Milkins been a disappointment going down 1-6 but Selt is 2-2 so every chance. The century bet is a good interest bet for the champs but there's always those scrappy matches which will let you down especially in the first round! Be nice if it comes off though!

*edit* just realised it's not best of 11 so that explains it now!

8 matches because it is a best of 19 now, otherwise it wasn't possible to play all the matches on one day. Same thing for tomorrow...

 

[charliepie]

Yeah, I remember when it used to be best of 19's from round 1 of the qualies - took bloody ages so they had to cut it down to 11 a few years ago - also need 2 referees for the four televised tables so they need at least 12 to run the show! I have joined you on the centuries bet so we can cheer that on as long as it lasts!(please don't crash and burn on the first weekend!)

[Fader]

I suppose the first couple of days is the most likely time that it fails as more matches and less quality but it's worth a few points at 12/1.

Selt won with ease in the end. Couple of big priced selections with chances today for the final Qualification day.

4pts C.Wakelin to beat X.Guodong 13/8 bet365
4pts S.Hallworth to beat G.Wilson 13/8 betfred
------------------------------------------------------------
1pt accy - Wakelin, Hallworth & Walden 12/1 betfred
0.5pts outsider accy - Langning, Wakelin, Walden, Hallworth & Craigie 120/1 bet365

wc bets +11.5pts

 

[charliepie]

Only 2 dogs win today and you got one of them so pretty good result!

[Fader]

Yeah, I did fancy Craigie's chances too, to be fair, but decided to stick him in the accy. +12.5pts but take away the poor showing of the outright bets that leaves me at +2.5pts. The main draw is at 11am, on Eurosport.

 

[Fader]

Full draw :

O'Sullivan Vs Joyce
McGill Vs Walden
Ding Vs Bingham
Maguire Vs Jones
Higgins Vs Pengfei
Williams Vs Craigie
Allen Vs Haotian
Selby Vs Maflin
-------------------------------------
Robertson Vs Wenbo
Lisowski Vs Carter
Hawkins Vs Selt
K.Wilson Vs G.Wilson
Murphy Vs Davis
Bingtao Vs Gould
Gilbert Vs Wakelin
Trump Vs Highfield

[Fader]

3 Serious contenders that are worth their price for me, in this. Obvious chances to go deep for players bang in-form, such as Jamie Jones, Craigie, Wakelin, Selt. I think though, once we get to the latter stages, the nerves will get to a few of them. Robertson hasn't done it, at the worlds for a while now. I think the value at the top half seems to be Bingham. It's hard to know what Mark Allen will turn up but he has a decent record against Selby and if one of these guys can beat Ronnie, then the price looks big.

Bottom half, I like Hawkins recent form. 9-6 up on Ronnie at the Tour Championship final and throwing it away will have hopefully taught him some lessons. He will face Trump, down there, but has already beaten him at that Tour event. Made the Quarter-finals in 2016, the Semi-finals in 2014, 2015, 2017 & 2018 and the final in 2013. A solid record of getting to the latter stages.

2pts e/w M.Allen to win World Championships 28/1 betfred
2pts e/w B.Hawkins to win World Championships 33/1 paddypower
2pts e/w S.Bingham to win World Championships 40/1 betfred

[Kevinbro]

Like Barry too and have a feeling maguire will go well this year 

[charliepie]

Hope they all give you a decent run, Higgins always seem to get to at least the semis but I guess the final most people want is Judd vs ROS

Bingham looking sharp in his last match so 50/1 pretty good value!

Edited April 16, 2021 by charliepie
spelling error

[Fader]

Tomorrow morning then, the start of the World Championship. The main event gets going at 10am when Ronnie takes on Mark Joyce. Tomorrow's line-up :

10am
R O'Sullivan Vs M.Joyce
Y.Bingtao Vs M.Gould

2.30pm
S.Maguire Vs J.Jones
N.Robertson Vs L.Wenbo

7pm
R.O'Sullivan Vs M.Joyce (to completion)
D.Gilbert Vs C.Wakelin

Hopefully, we see a century in every match. I think we'll see plenty of centuries in the event, so much so that I've had a small punt on there also being over 100.  The highest break is also a very interesting market, as it's likely that somebody makes a 147. Bingham has had a couple recently and he looks a solid bet to hit the highest break. Ideally, you'd want to pick out somebody that plays as many frames as possible and with Bingham being an outright play for me, I'll take Bingham.

In terms of matches, paddy are offering 2/1 that Ronnie takes the first 2 frames and that appeals to me. I can see Joyce having some nerves tomorrow, with this being his first time here and playing the champ. 

4pts Ronnie to take the first 2 frames Vs M.Joyce 2/1 paddypower
--------------------------------
2ps S.Bingham to make highest break in tournament 20/1 paddypower
0.5pts e/w M.Selt to make highest break in tournament 80/1 paddypower (3 place, 1/5)

[Fader]

gotta laugh. That potted red foul would never have happened if I didn't need him to go 2-0 up  

[charliepie]

Didn't see the early frames but that's a pretty sore one for what would have been an easy 8 point pickup. The century in every match bet is looking a bit shaky already with ROS not firing yet and a scrappy Maguire/Jones match!

Edited April 17, 2021 by charliepie
update

[Robaldo]

1 hour ago, charliepie said:

Didn't see the early frames but that's a pretty sore one for what would have been an easy 8 point pickup. The century in every match bet is looking a bit shaky already with ROS not firing yet and a scrappy Maguire/Jones match!

Was Maguire any good? 1,9 odds at betFIRST now...

[Torque]

32 minutes ago, Robaldo said:

Was Maguire any good? 1,9 odds at betFIRST now...

Wouldn't go anywhere near him. He can lose to anyone if his head goes. I can still remember him getting beaten by Poomjaeng a few years back. He had a big hissy fit sulk about the run that Poomjaeng was getting and the unorthodox shots that he was hitting that were going in. He has all the talent in the world, but his temperament is amongst the worst I've ever seen in a top player. He gets angry, he gives up and if it weren't for that he could have won this tournament at some point.

[charliepie]

Who knows with Maguire but I would probably leave it alone at that price. Century bet back on track now! Only the Maguire/Jones match needing one.

[Fader]

Yeah, we've made it through Day 1, atleast. Also, atleast the Maguire match is close, so plenty more frames in that one, tomorrow.

[charliepie]

I think our goose is cooked already, 4-9 down and Maguire not looking like he can make a 20 break, Jones nowhere near making a century either so unless we get lucky the century bet dies on day 2?

[ElPrincipito007]

Lisowski @1,847 (Marathonbet)

I think this is a nice odd, given at the season Lisowski has played. I know he can bottle it up on the big moments, but I can't let this odd pass.

[charliepie]

True he's had a good season and I hope he beats Carter but you may get a better price in running at some point if it's a close match.

[Fader]

Shame on the ton bet. If only Rubbish old Maguire could keep his head. A century there and we’d be laughing right about now 

[Robaldo]

On 4/17/2021 at 8:16 PM, Torque said:

Wouldn't go anywhere near him. He can lose to anyone if his head goes. I can still remember him getting beaten by Poomjaeng a few years back. He had a big hissy fit sulk about the run that Poomjaeng was getting and the unorthodox shots that he was hitting that were going in. He has all the talent in the world, but his temperament is amongst the worst I've ever seen in a top player. He gets angry, he gives up and if it weren't for that he could have won this tournament at some point.

Great read!

 

[Fader]

Glad to see Bingham make it through. Allen also, with Hawkins in the lead, for the outrights.

 

[charliepie]

No centuries in the Williams match either so I guess it's comforting not to have lost out to one poor match, with the best of 25's and longer we're pretty much guaranteed a century in every match from now on!

[Fader]

2nd round starts today, as Ronnie takes on Ant McGill, at 1pm. The other 1pm match is Murphy/Davis finishing up. Selby's match against Maflin tinishes tonight and Neil Robertson gets his 2nd round match against Lisowski started. I'm quite tempted to go with McGill with a starting handicap, but he's never beaten Ronnie and I get the feeling that he would bottle it, if he got a few frames ahead. I will take Robertson to beat Lisowski, with a handicap, though.

I was put off of Robertson in this event, because of his pretty awful recent record, here. I still am not sure if he's going to win it, but he does look like he's come to play, here and I can see him getting through Lisowski without too much fuss. I was tempted to take Carter against Lisowski, but something told me not to. Robertson beat Jack 10-5 in the recent Tour match and 11-4 in the 2019 China Open, so he knows how to beat Lisowski in the longer formats. He also has a head-to-head record of "Played 10, Won 10"

6pts N.Robertson (-3.5 frames) to beat J.Lisowski 5/6 paddypower
4pts N.Robertson to have highest break, most 50 breaks and win 9/4 paddypower
1pt R'O'Sullivan to beat A.McGill 13-8 or 13-9 paddypower 4/1

[charliepie]

You got a good price for the handicap as it's 8/11 now, he should get the job done. I had Murphy/Selby/Williams in an evens treble, bit of a sweat waiting for Murphy to win but he just about fell over the line.