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Racing Chat Thursday 1st April


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5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I prefer "proper" racing although I'll wait until May to start betting on the turf flat.

Likewise , the going can always be iffy & you have all weather horses up against first time outs hard to distinguish any true form .

As for the all weather , it's Championship Finals day tomorrow at Lingfield & Newcastle , good racing ūüĎć

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Today's selections....

2pt win single
1405 Uttoxeter
Eclair D'Ainay 13/8

2pt win single
1520 Wetherby
Roxboro Road 7/4

2pt win double
1425 Ffos Las Up For Parol
1530 Ffos Las Road Senam
3/1

2pt win double
1300 Uttoxeter Riggs
1520 Wetherby Roxboro Road
7/2


8pts staked.

Good luck!

Edited by Barnes1882
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Todays top rated selections



FFOS LAS 13:55 Joueur Bresilien 7/1 e/w 4 Places B bet (NB Those Tiger Feet 7/1 e/w) C bet

FFOS LAS 16:37 Seaston Spirit 12/1 e/w 4 Places C bet (NB Minella Daddy 28/1 + Dominateur 16/1) C bet split for them

CHELMSFORD CITY 17:50 Duty Of Care 13/2 e/w In my list of horses to follow ( top tated Fundamental 11/8) both B bets

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2 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Today's selections....

2pt win single
1405 Uttoxeter
Eclair D'Ainay 13/8

2pt win single
1520 Wetherby
Roxboro Road 7/4

2pt win double
1425 Ffos Las Up For Parol
1530 Ffos Las Road Senam
3/1

2pt win double
1300 Uttoxeter Riggs
1520 Wetherby Roxboro Road
7/2


8pts staked.

Good luck!

Selections complete!

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1.00 Uttoxeter - 1pt win Beatthebullet @ 15/2

1.15 Wetherby - 2pts win Fete Champetre @ 7/2

1.30 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Cape Fair @ 14/1

2.25 Ffos Las - 1pt e/w Light N Strike @ 11/1

2.40 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Kingofthecotswolds @ 28/1

3.00 Ffos Las - 1pt e/w Donnie Brasco @ 11/1

3,40 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Ivilnoble @ 9/1

3.50 Wetherby - 2pts win Billy Bronco @ 5/1

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3 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Today's selections....

2pt win single
1405 Uttoxeter
Eclair D'Ainay 13/8

2pt win single
1520 Wetherby
Roxboro Road 7/4

2pt win double
1425 Ffos Las Up For Parol
1530 Ffos Las Road Senam
3/1

2pt win double
1300 Uttoxeter Riggs
1520 Wetherby Roxboro Road
7/2


8pts staked.

Good luck!

Late addition....

3pt win single
1645 Uttoxeter
Marmalaid 6/4

11pts staked.

Edited by Barnes1882
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Riggs very unfortunate, was easily winning for me but jockey decided to try for a gap, then pulled the horse back and then went up the inside and jumped 3rd last level and fell. Very frustrating as was travelling all over them. 2pts lost on that double. 

Just had a late in play bet and won 5pts (3pts profit)...

 

Screenshot_20210401-135135_bet365.jpg

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3 hours ago, Ironjoe said:

Been lurking for a bit thought id start posting my selections

Wetherby 2.15 las tunas 13/2

Wetherby 3.20 diamond fort 9/1

Uttox 2.40 stormy flight 9/4

Uttox 3.40 getaway mag 7/4

Chelms 4.50 eaglesglen 5/2

Chelms 6.50 smokey 5/2

 

Welcome to Punters Lounge, may I wish you luck with your selections and hope that you enjoy your enjoy your stay amongst a very friendly helpful bunch of PL members

 

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5 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Today's selections....

2pt win single
1405 Uttoxeter
Eclair D'Ainay 13/8

2pt win single
1520 Wetherby
Roxboro Road 7/4

2pt win double
1425 Ffos Las Up For Parol
1530 Ffos Las Road Senam
3/1

2pt win double
1300 Uttoxeter Riggs
1520 Wetherby Roxboro Road
7/2


8pts staked.

Good luck!

I felt as though I missed out yesterday when so many favourites came in.  I didn't have time to look at those that did so I'm wondering if you feel that they ran true to their most recent form and course, distance and class etc. Or was it just fortunate that they ran well?  I have spent quite a bit of time looking at the criteria that may yield regular winning favourites but alas I have yet to find the correct criteria that will produce them.  You had a great day yesterday but it looks as though the favourites are going back to their usual  unreliabilty again today.  What do you think?

 

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30 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I felt as though I missed out yesterday when so many favourites came in.  I didn't have time to look at those that did so I'm wondering if you feel that they ran true to their most recent form and course, distance and class etc. Or was it just fortunate that they ran well?  I have spent quite a bit of time looking at the criteria that may yield regular winning favourites but alas I have yet to find the correct criteria that will produce them.  You had a great day yesterday but it looks as though the favourites are going back to their usual  unreliabilty again today.  What do you think?

 

If you had that criteria you would be a very rich person. Just got fortunate yesterday with several favourites highly fancied and all ran well.

I work on a pts system as you know. I withdrew all funds before Cheltenham and stuck £100 in (10pts for me). My accounts in total currently read £872 so I've been in a great bit of form. I technically now have 87.2pts available and feel this is the safest way to work. 

As you will have seen since I joined the site, I have had several days with 15-25pts profit but I've also had several days where I've lost pts. The thing is, my good days have outweighed my poor one's and the good ones have been very good. Therefore today if I lost say 10pts I wouldn't be too concerned.

I seem to do quite well backing short odds horses. I think favourites have a strike rate of 33% so 1/3 win. Therefore if you can find 2/3 that you think are incredibly strong each day, you always have a good chance. Also getting the early prices is absolutely key for example yesterday I got Soyouthinksoagain at 5/2 early. He went off something like 8/11 so 2pts on those prices are massively different in terms of returns. I've already started looking at prices for tomorrow and any movement I see and have a few highlighted. If I see any movement on the ones I like early then I'll get on immediately. 

Sorry for the essay haha.

As we all know, there will be moments in racing when everything you touch turns to gold and times where you can't even get a place all day with favourites. The biggest lesson I've learnt over the last couple of years is to have a pts system. It's an easy way of keeping track and you are less likely to go chasing. 

 

Edited by Barnes1882
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Very disappointing, was counting my money going into the straight with the double which would have returned 8pts. Road Senam found nothing when asked to go and put the race to bed. 

Last selection for me and still have 3pt bet later.....

1.7pt win single

1550 Sigurd 9/4

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29 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

If you had that criteria you would be a very rich person. Just got fortunate yesterday with several favourites highly fancied and all ran well.

I work on a pts system as you know. I withdrew all funds before Cheltenham and stuck £100 in (10pts for me). My accounts in total currently read £872 so I've been in a great bit of form. I technically now have 87.2pts available and feel this is the safest way to work. 

As you will have seen since I joined the site, I have had several days with 15-25pts profit but I've also had several days where I've lost pts. The thing is, my good days have outweighed my poor one's and the good ones have been very good. Therefore today if I lost say 10pts I wouldn't be too concerned.

I seem to do quite well backing short odds horses. I think favourites have a strike rate of 33% so 1/3 win. Therefore if you can find 2/3 that you think are incredibly strong each day, you always have a good chance. Also getting the early prices is absolutely key for example yesterday I got Soyouthinksoagain at 5/2 early. He went off something like 8/11 so 2pts on those prices are massively different in terms of returns. I've already started looking at prices for tomorrow and any movement I see and have a few highlighted. If I see any movement on the ones I like early then I'll get on immediately. 

Sorry for the essay haha.

As we all know, there will be moments in racing when everything you touch turns to gold and times where you can't even get a place all day with favourites. The biggest lesson I've learnt over the last couple of years is to have a pts system. It's an easy way of keeping track and you are less likely to go chasing. 

 

Many thanks for your helpful comments.  When I have time I list out the prices for all horses under 10/1 for each race at a three meetings the night before racing from about 10pm onwards.  I then check during the day to see how the prices have changed.  Where prices have drifted badly I cross off the horse's name and focus on ones where there is strong market interest.  Taking a price at night time can be very good at times but if the price drifts overnight then one is stuck with trying to get out of the bet.

I'm not so sure that favourites win about 1/3 of the time and, even if they do they include all the odds on shots 1/6 etc which means one has to exclude them so as to arrive at acceptable odds that will show a profit in the long run.  There is also the distinction between handicaps and graded races.  Favourites win fewer races in handicaps than graded races.

You are doing really well atm; may it long continue.

Thanks again for your reply

 

 

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5 hours ago, Ironjoe said:

Been lurking for a bit thought id start posting my selections

Wetherby 2.15 las tunas 13/2 unplaced

Wetherby 3.20 diamond fort 9/1 unplaced

Uttox 2.40 stormy flight 9/4 1st

Uttox 3.40 getaway mag 7/4 unplaced

Chelms 4.50 eaglesglen 5/2

Chelms 6.50 smokey 5/2

 

Not the best start! going to add 2 more for chelmsford for a small lucky 15

5.20 brains 13/2

6.20 velvet vista 13/2

Good luck all 

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Eclair D'Ainay 2pts lost

Roxboro Road 5.5pts won (3.5pt profit)

2pt double lost = 2pts lost

2pt double lost = 2pts lost

In play Paricolo = 5pts returned (3pt profit)

In play Landofsmiles = 2.5pt (1.5pt profit) - placed this very late when race was on.

Sigurd 1.7pts lost

12.7pts staked & 13pts returned so 0.3pt profit (£3) with a 3pt bet left in the 1645.

Will either end the day £27 down (2.7pts) or a decent amount up depending on the odds of last horse.

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1 hour ago, Barnes1882 said:

Eclair D'Ainay 2pts lost

Roxboro Road 5.5pts won (3.5pt profit)

2pt double lost = 2pts lost

2pt double lost = 2pts lost

In play Paricolo = 5pts returned (3pt profit)

In play Landofsmiles = 2.5pt (1.5pt profit) - placed this very late when race was on.

Sigurd 1.7pts lost

12.7pts staked & 13pts returned so 0.3pt profit (£3) with a 3pt bet left in the 1645.

Will either end the day £27 down (2.7pts) or a decent amount up depending on the odds of last horse.

Very poor 3pt selection after being well backed. End the day 2.7pts down unfortunately. I have had one more bet tonight...

11/10 Fundamental 1750 Chelmsford

2.5pt win

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50 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

Very poor 3pt selection after being well backed. End the day 2.7pts down unfortunately. I have had one more bet tonight...

11/10 Fundamental 1750 Chelmsford

2.5pt win

2.5pt Fundamental wins and with slight drift returns 5.7pts. 

3.2pt profit from final selection means I end the day 0.5pts up somehow. Will take that with the results today. 

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