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Women's Football Predictions 2021


harry_rag
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We probably don't need more than one thread for the few bets that are likely to arise but I've had a look at the Chelsea v Wolfsburg Champion's League games later and might as well share my thoughts.

Bookings expectation is in the high 20s which isn't unusual for a Women's game but, having had a look at the ref's stats, I find myself lured into betting high.

https://int.soccerway.com/referees/jana-adamkova/89511/

You can buy bookings at 28 with SX which doesn't seem bad (3 or more yellows edges you in front though you will lose 28 x stake if it passes off without a single card shown). 365 offer odds against for >2.5 cards which is great if they'll allow you to stake more than the price of a cup of coffee. :wall

I've gone for 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 13/5 with Hills and a 2 point saver on >65 points at 12/1 with the same firm. (Though just noticed Sky Bet are better for the saver bet.)

Only Sporting Index offer goalscorer prices and I'll no doubt have an interest in Maren Mjelde as she's a player I've won on before who seems to be underestimated by the markets on the rare occasion any are offered. Take your pick from 9/2 anytime or goal minutes at 8 (was 7 earlier).

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Brighton are 5/1 tomorrow to beat Everton, my tissue has them around the 10/3 mark. Brighton have won 4 on the spin including a 2-1 away win at Chelsea. For context the hosts were 15/8 for this contest last season (won 1-0) and 5/6 in 2018/19 (drew 0-0). For me there's definitely abit of juice in this price.

Bet

Brighton to beat Everton @ 5/1 (Betfair/ Betfred)

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  • 4 weeks later...

Chelsea v B Munich: Buy Harder's goal rush plus for 2 points at 9 (25 points for 1 goal, 50 for 2, 100 for 3).

Bookings market looks about right for this one (50/50 whether it gets to 30 points or more). High cards have been underpriced on previous games.

Harder quite prolific for Chelsea, I agree with the SX view that she's on a par with Kirby and Kerr, but SPIN have her as third in the Chelsea goalscorer pecking order.

Ok for an interest rather than clear and indisputable value.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Champions League final day and I can't let Chelsea go unbacked, unsuccessfully went after Barcelona in the semi final v PSG but we go again here.

English Teams record in the WCL since 13/14: P87 54-10-23-181-83-98 with a rating of 0.72

Spanish teams over the same period : P74 43-10-21-135-78-57 with a rating of 0.66

Chelsea in the WCL over a 3 year period: P16 11-2-3-44-10-34 with a rating of 0.86

Barcelona in the WCL over the same period: P 23 18-1-4-56-16-40 with a rating of 0.82

Bet

2pt - Chelsea to win the WCL Outright @ 2/1

1pt - Chelsea to win in 90 mins @ 16/5 

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3 hours ago, jamied02 said:

2pt - Chelsea to win the WCL Outright @ 2/1

That looks a decent price but I won't jinx you! Had a look at the cards, spreads are pitched at 28-31. Only a couple of fixed odds firms seems to have priced the markets and they take opposing views, Hills being the place to go if you want to bet high. I've had the following bets.

20 points on 4-6 cards being shown at 9/4

10 points on >1 card for each team at 17/4

4 points on >65 booking points at 12/1 (essentially a saver but it would be a stretch for this to land with neither of the other bets obliging).

By contrast, Sky Bet are only 7/4 for 40+ booking points and 5/2 for 20+ points each team.

Ref Hussein hasn't shown more than 3 cards in any of her 9 Bundesliga games this year but has shown 4-6 in 9 out of her 18 Champions League games. This being the final, I'm happy to bet on at least 4 cards at the prices.

May have a scorer bet or 2 yet.

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On 5/2/2021 at 12:22 PM, harry_rag said:

Chelsea v B Munich: Buy Harder's goal rush plus for 2 points at 9 (25 points for 1 goal, 50 for 2, 100 for 3).

She scored one goal for a 16 point profit. Playing her again in the same market, along with Leupolz, as the return for one goal beats the best anytime fixed odds price I can find and there's the potential bonus for 2 or more.

Buy Harder for 3 points at 6 and Leupolz for 3 points at 3 in the Goal Rush Plus market. Void if not starting.

Kerr and Kirby not without appeal at fixed odds prices of 5/2 and 11/4 but I might just have a smaller interest in the longer shots. Will wait for line ups.

Game is free to watch on BT's YouTube channel apparently.

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:eyes Sometimes you have to take it on the chin! Barcelona race into a 4-0 lead after 36 minutes and that's how it finished. There were just 2 yellow cards which is par for the course when a game ends up effectively over so early on. I suppose one of my Chelsea players could have scored a consolation goal but I think they were more concerned with damage limitation for the rest of the game.

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  • 10 months later...
On 3/24/2021 at 2:51 PM, harry_rag said:

We probably don't need more than one thread for the few bets that are likely to arise but I've had a look at the Chelsea v Wolfsburg Champion's League games later and might as well share my thoughts.

Bookings expectation is in the high 20s which isn't unusual for a Women's game but, having had a look at the ref's stats, I find myself lured into betting high.

https://int.soccerway.com/referees/jana-adamkova/89511/

You can buy bookings at 28 with SX which doesn't seem bad (3 or more yellows edges you in front though you will lose 28 x stake if it passes off without a single card shown). 365 offer odds against for >2.5 cards which is great if they'll allow you to stake more than the price of a cup of coffee. :wall

I've gone for 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 13/5 with Hills and a 2 point saver on >65 points at 12/1 with the same firm. (Though just noticed Sky Bet are better for the saver bet.)

Only Sporting Index offer goalscorer prices and I'll no doubt have an interest in Maren Mjelde as she's a player I've won on before who seems to be underestimated by the markets on the rare occasion any are offered. Take your pick from 9/2 anytime or goal minutes at 8 (was 7 earlier).

 

Same ref tonight?: Arsenal (W) v Wolfsburg (W). Kick off 8.00.

Cross bookings at 220 (Spreadex) worth a stab for me. Simple bookings buy price 29.

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1 hour ago, Labrador said:

 

Same ref tonight?: Arsenal (W) v Wolfsburg (W). Kick off 8.00.

Cross bookings at 220 (Spreadex) worth a stab for me. Simple bookings buy price 29.

To avoid the risk of after timing (we’re both a card short of profit with 20 minutes left) I played 4-6 cards with cover on >65 points and 2+ cards for each team, at 13/5, 14/1 and 15/4 with Hills.

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12 hours ago, harry_rag said:

To avoid the risk of after timing (we’re both a card short of profit with 20 minutes left) I played 4-6 cards with cover on >65 points and 2+ cards for each team, at 13/5, 14/1 and 15/4 with Hills.

Typically for them I was offered 96 PENCE? at 13/5 by Hills pre-match on 4-6 cards so fortunately I topped up on the cross-bookings which made up at 600 for 380 points profit. 

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Return leg of the Arsenal / Wolfsburg tie in Germany this evening with the sides locked 1-1 after the first game. Despite the situation the referee this time, Ivana Projkovska of Macedonia, does not encourage a display of cards so the bookings markets are a swerve for me.

However the second tie Lyon v Juventus (8.00 pm) has Riem Hussein of Germany with the whistle. She certianly has stats that suggest at least 40 points and perhaps more, given the tie situation with the home side trailing 2-1. Lyon are still big favourites to reach the Final but the Italians should make it really tough and hopefully feisty. I've backed over 39 bookings points at 5/4 (skybet) and had a buy of cross bookings at 320 (Spreadex). Simple bookings are 36 to buy.

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28 minutes ago, Labrador said:

However the second tie Lyon v Juventus (8.00 pm) has Riem Hussein of Germany with the whistle. She certianly has stats that suggest at least 40 points and perhaps more, given the tie situation with the home side trailing 2-1. Lyon are still big favourites to reach the Final but the Italians should make it really tough and hopefully feisty. I've backed over 39 bookings points at 5/4 (skybet) and had a buy of cross bookings at 320 (Spreadex). Simple bookings are 36 to buy.

I've decided to be bolder/greedier and played the 50+ market at 11/4. If you look at the 15-35 "banded" market you can get 11/8 for the 40+ bet. Hills only 12/5 for the 50+ (>45 to be precise) market. Unfortunately not offering the build your odds option as I think they may have offered the better price for the 20+ points each market that landed last week.

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13 hours ago, harry_rag said:

:ok Thanks for another great shout. Thought I was going to be hoist on the petard of my boldness/greed but the 5th yellow arrived just before the whistle. 
Nice make up on the spread bet.

Just to mention in case anyone else is being short-changed, some websites have only indicated 5 yellows. I had to e-mail Spreadex with the official UEFA report to advise them that there were 6 bookings in total. I think they had missed another injury time yellow (Sara Gama of Juventus).

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  • 1 month later...

Women's FA Cup final today and, in the interests of equal opportunity, I may as well risk losing some money on this one after my wipeout on yesterday's bets in the men's game.

Buy Reiten's goal rush plus at 5 with SPIN. The equivalent of 4/1 anytime with a bonus on top if she scores more than once. Shorter than that with the bookies and seems reasonable looking at her stats.

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