Racing Chat- Friday March 19th

[The Brigadier]

The Final Day of this year’s Festival to be run on the New course and unless the Clerk of the course decides to throw some water on the track (I wouldn’t be surprised!) then we should be looking at racing on genuinely good ground.

 

1.20

Gone are the days of the 30 runner Triumph Hurdles with the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle taking away a lot of the ‘lesser’ candidates but despite only 8 runners we do have a potential cracker on our hands here. Current favourite Zanahiyr has been very impressive in winning all 3 of his starts in Ireland on soft ground, with a particularly fast time at Leopardstown over Christmas (form already been franked this week) and could be very good. Two negatives against him though are possibly the drying ground and the fact that he wears a first time tongue tie. Former stable mate Quilixios has also impressed in winning all 4 of his starts although he too is yet to prove he’s as good on good ground as he is on soft. Alan King is a past master at training these juveniles and can take this with his unbeaten Tritonic. A smart flat performer who was good enough to finish runner up at Royal Ascot, he stepped up from a rather un-impressive hurdles debut at Ascot to show a sparkling turn of foot over the last at Kempton when running away with the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle. Conditions may well favour him ahead of massive danger Zanahiyr and he’s the selection.

 

TRITONIC 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

1.55

As always the County Hurdle is very competitive although between them Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins have won the last 6 renewals. Skelton relies upon novice Third Time Lucki and he should run a good race. Mullins is mob handed with 5 entries the best of which may well be the novice Ganapathi who though has only raced on very soft ground. The fancy here though (as always with the firms paying extra places) is Sneezy Foster’s Eclair De Beaufeu. He ran a stormer to finish runner up in last year’s Grand Annual over fences and dropping back to timber here can race off of a 14lb lower mark with Jack Kennedy taking over from claiming jockeys.

 

ECLAIR DE BEAUFEU 1 point EW @ 9/1 Bet365 1/4 odds 123456

 

2.30

A good turnout for this year’s Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (or the potato race as some call it!). The drying ground is going to be a major factor here as plenty of the leading contenders have been racing on the deep ground all winter. One exception is the Irish trained Streets Of Doyen, trained by John C McConnell at Stamullen, County Meath. He ran up a good ground four timer in the Autumn, culminating in a course and distance win in October. Given a mid season break presumably to miss the bad ground he was back for his prep race on unsuitable soft ground and over a mile too short in February. That will have teed him up nicely for this and he looks terrific each way value.

 

STREETS OF DOYEN 1 point EW @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5 1234

 

3.05

The Gold Cup features dual winner Al Boum Photo who surely is the one to beat although on official ratings he’s not that far clear of his rivals and at the prices I’ll take him on.  Henry De Bromhead has two big chances with A Plus Tard and Minella Indo. I did originally favour the latter but he’s been ridden throughout his career, including an Albert Bartlett win and RSA 2nd to Champ, by Rachael Blackmore who’s jumped ship to ride A Plus Tard and he has to be the selection here. He does have to prove his stamina over the last two furlongs but he looked good when beating Kemboy and others in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas over 3 miles and I’ll take him to top an excellent week for De Bromhead and Blackmore.

 

A PLUS TARD 2 points win @ 10/3 Boylesports

 

3.40

This year’s Foxhunters Chase (I’m still calling it that anyway!) will be different to previous renewals with professional jockeys riding due to the ban on amateurs. The last two winners in Hazel Hill and It Came To Pass along with last years runner up Billaway make a formidable Irish challenge but this may go the Paul Nicholls trained Bob And Co who was impressive under today’s jockey Sean Bowen when blitzing his field at Haydock 27 days ago. The one unknown with him however is the ground as all his form has been on deep ground. I’ll take a chance he handles the livelier conditions and with Bowen saying in the week that he felt he needed the Haydock run and has improved since he’s the bet here. Just a word of warning though he was a bit hairy at a couple of the Haydock fences so expect the odd errant jump! His class may get him through mind.

 

BOB AND CO 1 point EW @ 6/1 Boylesports 1/5 1234

 

4.15

A new addition to the Festival is another Ireland/Willie Mullins benefit race in the Mares Chase! Ireland have 7 of the 11 runners with the 4 British runners priced  at 33/1, 33/1,33/1 & 20/1! Elimay is a confident selection to win this for Mullins and Mark Walsh. She’s won 3 of her 4 starts over fences with her only defeat coming against the smart Allaho at Thurles. She was impressive last time when comfortably beating Shattered Love who looks held now and her biggest danger is stable companion Colreevy who has to prove her effectiveness on the drying ground. Mullins has farmed the two mares hurdles races at the Festival over the past decade and I expect the same scenario with this new race.

 

ELIMAY 3 points win @ 5/6 William Hills

 

4.50

A fiendishly hard Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle to complete the end of a memorable Festival where we’ve seem some very smart performances.

Trainer David Pipe would love to win this race named after his father and he saddles three runners, the best of which maybe Martinhal who’s making his handicap debut and is lightly raced. The pick though is the Willie Mullins trained, Sean O’Keefe ridden 5 year old novice Galopin Des Champs who if we can believe his 9 1/4L 6th to Appreciate It and Ballyadam at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival could be well treated off of 140 on his handicap debut. An outsider that could outrun his big odds is the Nicky Henderson trained Mill Green who ran well to finish 6th last year when the standing start didn’t suit him. He’s worth a small ew saver at a big price.

 

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS 1 point EW @ 7/1 1/5 12345

MILL GREEN 1/2 point EW @ 33/1 Paddy Power 1/5 12345

 

 

[Villa Chris]

Thanks for the write ups and tips. Much appreciated .

[Striker]

Good luck

4.50-Fire Attack

Joseph O.Brien has hit the bar a few times at the meeting this week, but the best could be saved to the last

Like the jockey booking in this Conditional race of one of his old jockeys Oakley Brown who is now over here

Each Way [5 places] @ 14-1 with Paddy Power

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

1.20 - I think Zanahiyr probably wins and the top three in the betting likely to make up the 1-2-3 but Tax For Max (1pt e/w @ 40/1) looks a shade overpriced, mainly on potential but wasn't disgraced behind a smart horse on debut in Ireland despite racing awkwardly so a little go on him e/w. 

1.55 - I like Captain Kangaroo here e/w (1pt e/w @ 14/1) with its mark remaining low having not won yet over hurdles behind smart horses and looks fairly treated here with better ground promising to suit too.  and got on at a slightly bigger price last night but he's in to 14/1 now. Looks generously treated on runs behind smart horses. Also done La Patriote (1pt e/w @ 50/1). Has won off 3lbs higher in the past and will enjoy the return to hurdles and better ground.

2.30 - I think Fakiera (2pts win @ 5/1) is the type of horse who runs very well in this race - often helps to have a proper stayer rather than a speedy three miler and this one often hits a flat spot which is a bit of a concern but comes home strong and the step up in trip will suit. 5/1 for him but also Vaniellier (1pt e/w @ 20/1) appeals at a big price around 20/1 as he looks a proper stayer and something must have been amiss last time, but has collateral form with Fakiera to suggest the price is too big.

3.05 - Champ (2pts win @ 6/1) for me. Al Boum Photo is respected but this race is undoubtedly better than either of his Gold Cup wins and Champ has done nothing wrong, stays very strongly and to run as well as he did over 2 miles in his prep run is encouraging too. I think if he jumps okay he'll take the world of beating at 6/1.

3.40 - I quite like Stand Up And Fight (1pt e/w @ 11/1) in here. Has beaten Billaway this season already so surprises me to see he's 11/1 compared to 5/2 about that one. Stays very well, has improved for blinkers and I think the fact professional jockeys are riding in this will really suit this horse as he responds well to pressure and stronger handling will help. 

4.15 - I suspect the top two are the ones to beat but had a little play on Magic of Light at 16/1 (1pt e/w @ 16/1). Fairly clear that she'll just blast off in front and hope to put them under pressure as she stays much further. Has plenty of experience and could get enough out of their comfort zone to make the frame.

4.50 - Frontal Assault (1pt e/w @ 14/1) appeals to me. Don't think his mark has got away from him and barring one flop in a handicap in blinkers, which he bounced back from last time, his form gives him a big chance. Stays further which will suit around here in a big field and I think he's got a rock solid chance if holding a position. 

[Tedthewolf]

Last day and the big handicaps don't get any easier again small e/w for me.

1.55ch-Three big fat ones e/w for me LE PATRIOT 50/1 MENGLI KHAN 80/1 BELFAST BANTER 40/1

4.50 ch- EGLANTINE DU SEUIL 33/1 1/5 5places  BOG i give the Nicholls  runner a real good chance with this better ground 

MILL GREEN Henderson horse who ran ok in this last year if jumping holds up should be involved again 33/1 6places look to good to miss.

DREAM BERRY  50/1 is well handicaped and worth a small e/w

Also 3x3  e/w  doubles.

Best of Luck All

[cannotbebeat]

Lingfield

1.35 Zwelela 5/1 - Won 100/30

2.10 Hotalena 4/1 - Lost

2.45 Ornate 5/1 - Lost

5.05 Hold Fast 11/4 - Lost

Fakenham

4.05 Floating Rock 13/2 - Lost

Good luck all CNBB. Depends how the early ones go have another couple I fancy a bet on. We will see.

Edited March 19, 2021 by cannotbebeat

[roger2256]

March +9.5

1pt level stakes win only 

13.35 Lin Propagation 13/2

15.30 Fak Mahlermade 13/2 

16.50 Che Fire Attack 12/1 

Prices as of now b365 

 

[The Equaliser]

1.20 Chelt Zanahiyr £8 win at 2.34 & £2 win at 5.1 on Tritonic = £8.55 if Zanahiyr wins and B/E if Tritonic spoils my lan

1.55 Chelt Ganapathi Trying to get £2 matched at 7.8 (7.4) will let it go for my fun bets if not matched.  You Raised Me UP 60p win at 7/1, Third TIme Lucki 60p win at 8/1, Thyme White 40p win at 25/1 and 40 p win on Petite Mouchoir at 33/1

2.30  Chelt Stattler £2.50 win at 6, Streets Of Doyen £1 win at 13/2 & Adrimel 50p ew at 14/1

3.05 Chelt Al Boum Photo £4.50 win at 5/2 and Native River 50p ew at 14/1

3.40 Chelt Latenightpass £2 at 6.2 (5.4) 3TBP

4.15 Chelt difficult Top 3 are strong in the market and don't want to put £10 on the favourite

Will come back for the 4.50

1.10 Fak Chieftans Choice £2 win at 11.0 = £18.60 profit if it wins.  All other rides for Brian Hughes seems to have been smashed in the betting markets so I will have to review them throughout the day

Total poss stakes = £28.00

Good luck to all betting on Cheltenham's final day

 

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

Last day and the big handicaps don't get any easier again small e/w for me.

1.55ch-Three big fat ones e/w for me LE PATRIOT 50/1 MENGLI KHAN 80/1 BELFAST BANTER 40/1

4.50 ch- EGLANTINE DU SEUIL 33/1 1/5 5places  BOG i give the Nicholls  runner a real good chance with this better ground 

MILL GREEN Henderson horse who ran ok in this last year if jumping holds up should be involved again 33/1 6places look to good to miss.

DREAM BERRY  50/1 is well handicaped and worth a small e/w

Also 3x3  e/w  doubles.

Best of Luck All

Le Patriot NR  have backed MILKWOOD @ 28/1 8 places

[Tumbleweed King]

Quilixios has always been held in high regard. He was good enough to win on his French debut for Francois Nicolle at Compeigne when he had a dozen lengths to spare over Yes Indeed. He subsequently was purchased by Cheveley Park Stud and shipped over to Ireland where he also made an instant impact. Two quick victories in the space of two weeks followed at Punchestown and Down Royal where he won by a combined thirty-three lengths. He was upped in class to contest the Grade One Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival where he won in fine style again. He is certainly well worth his place in this line-up and with Rachael Blackmore on board must be feared.

Fifty Ball was a winner of two staying races on the flat in his native France and seems to have taken to life well under Gary Moore. Following a near three month break he ran in the biggest race of his career when he finished runner up to Soaring Glory in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury a few weeks ago. He runs in the same colours as Goshen and no surprise if compensation should await the connections following their rotten luck in the Triumph last year. His chances are hard to ignore.

Streets Of Doyen has been in fantastic form this season and landed the biggest win if his career over the course and distance back in October when ridden by Richard Johnson. He was completing a four-timer for the yard having also won at Roscommon, Gowran Park and Cork in the space of six weeks. His experience around here will prove invaluable and in a race that can throw up the occasional shock, he makes each way appeal should John McConnell bring him over from County Meath.

A Plus Tard could well be that horse. He improved from his seasonal reappearance when runner-up to Castlegrace Paddy at Navan in a Grade Two race to rally gamely to thwart Kemboy in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown just after Christmas. The form of the race has been boosted as Kemboy has come out and won another Grade One race subsequently suggesting that there could be more to come from the Cheveley Park owned and Henry De Bromhead trained runner. Whilst he is unproven at this trip, he looks as though he will get it and he does have winning Cheltenham form having won the Close Brothers Handicap Chase here a couple of seasons ago. Rachael Blackmore is on board  the seven-year-old and the pair are certainly worthy of their place in the line-up.

Billaway is taken to improve again having won the key trials at Down Royal and Naas in the run up to this. He has vital proven experience in the race and looks the perfect age to perhaps build a high profile for himself in this sphere. It is hard to dismiss the chances of Hazel Hill too has been a credit to his connections. It would be fantastic if he could roll back the years to grab at least a place in what is ultimately the twilight of his career.

Shattered Love has her work cut out to reverse her February form with Elimay but they have an extra half mile to play with here and connections will strongly fancy their chances of doing so. Shattered Love is a previous winner here at Cheltenham having won the JLT Here three years ago. She is also proven on a quicker surface, so drying ground ought to suit. Elimay has no prior experience at Cheltenham and that might just count against her.

Galopin Des Champs steps up to two and a half miles for the first time here this afternoon and he wasn’t beaten all that far in a Grade One race won by Appreciate It during the Dublin Racing Festival. A repeat of that effort would certainly see him right in the mix, particularly as he was doing all of his best work in the closing stages

 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

1.20 Chelt Zanahiyr £8 win at 2.34 & £2 win at 5.1 on Tritonic = £8.55 if Zanahiyr wins and B/E if Tritonic spoils my lan

1.55 Chelt Ganapathi Trying to get £2 matched at 7.8 (7.4) will let it go for my fun bets if not matched.  You Raised Me UP 60p win at 7/1, Third TIme Lucki 60p win at 8/1, Thyme White 40p win at 25/1 and 40 p win on Petite Mouchoir at 33/1

2.30  Chelt Stattler £2.50 win at 6, Streets Of Doyen £1 win at 13/2 & Adrimel 50p ew at 14/1

3.05 Chelt Al Boum Photo £4.50 win at 5/2 and Native River 50p ew at 14/1

3.40 Chelt Latenightpass £2 at 6.2 (5.4) 3TBP

4.15 Chelt difficult Top 3 are strong in the market and don't want to put £10 on the favourite

Will come back for the 4.50

1.10 Fak Chieftans Choice £2 win at 11.0 = £18.60 profit if it wins.  All other rides for Brian Hughes seems to have been smashed in the betting markets so I will have to review them throughout the day

Total poss stakes = £28.00

Good luck to all betting on Cheltenham's final day

 

They can say what they like but that was a crap run by Zanahiyr.  This Jack Kennedy must be idiot of the year for choosing the wrong horse again and letting Rachael Blackmore ride the best horse

[The Equaliser]

I feel a little unlucky that Petite Mouchoir didn't win but that's racing

4.50  Chelt Folcano (money horse) £2 win at 9.0 & Langer Dan (Top rated Timeform & RPR) £2 win at 10.0 = £13.72 & £15.68 profit if either horse wins

 

[Tedthewolf]

3 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Last day and the big handicaps don't get any easier again small e/w for me.

1.55ch-Three big fat ones e/w for me LE PATRIOT 50/1 MENGLI KHAN 80/1 BELFAST BANTER 40/1

4.50 ch- EGLANTINE DU SEUIL 33/1 1/5 5places  BOG i give the Nicholls  runner a real good chance with this better ground 

MILL GREEN Henderson horse who ran ok in this last year if jumping holds up should be involved again 33/1 6places look to good to miss.

DREAM BERRY  50/1 is well handicaped and worth a small e/w

Also 3x3  e/w  doubles.

Best of Luck All

Nice wee sweat now in the lucky last C'mon

[cannotbebeat]

Did tenner double on the other two horses I fancied

Lingfield

3.20 Crimson King 15/8 - Lost

4.30 Mohaafeth 9/5 - Won 15/8

Good luck all CNBB.

Edited March 19, 2021 by cannotbebeat

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

This Jack Kennedy must be idiot of the year for choosing the wrong horse again and letting Rachael Blackmore ride the best horse

An idiot that wins the Gold cup !

[Villa Chris]

Thought Frodon got himself into a great position and was travelling really well. Once the heat turned up a notch he couldn’t handle it though, which was expected against the Irish contingent. The gold cup isn’t the king George .

[cannotbebeat]

Dundalk

5.00 Poets Pride 7/2 - Won 11/4

7.30 Tipperary Moon 11/2 - Lost

8.30 Chummie 8/1 - Lost

Southwell

7.15 Travel Lightly 2/1 - Won 1/1

Good luck all CNBB.

Edited March 19, 2021 by cannotbebeat

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

An idiot that wins the Gold cup !

Yep.  And I thought it was only horses that made a fool of us ?.  Henry De Bromhead specifically mentioned Minella Indo on TV before the race.  You can keep Jack Kennedy all to yourself I don''t like him.  Give me Rachael Blackmore more any day

[Villa Chris]

3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Yep.  And I thought it was only horses that made a fool of us ?.  Henry De Bromhead specifically mentioned Minella Indo on TV before the race.  You can keep Jack Kennedy all to yourself I don''t like him.  Give me Rachael Blackmore more any day

I think most of us would prefer Rachel ?

[MCLARKE]

AW selection.

Southwell 7.15

THAWRY 6/1

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I feel a little unlucky that Petite Mouchoir didn't win but that's racing

4.50  Chelt Folcano (money horse) £2 win at 9.0 & Langer Dan (Top rated Timeform & RPR) £2 win at 10.0 = £13.72 & £15.68 profit if either horse wins

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Ouchh! A complete blank day with two seconds.  My total loss on the day was £32 so very disappointing.  I enjoyed the festival though and can't wait for next year when I will be a bit wiser.  I lost about £22 over all which isn't too bad for all that entertainment.  Anyway my new balance is £566.87 (£500 Bank) so my accumulated profit took a bit of a hit.

Back to normal business tomorrow with plenty of restricted live contenders to choose from

I do hope that most people on the forum enjoyed Cheltenham?