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Andrey Rublev to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut at 1.52 with Pinnacle I backed RBA today and he did get the job done, but I think he loses tomorrow. He's been a bit shabby overall so far, just lucky

Medvedev tested positive to COVID and yesterday he had a practice with Nadal.

Has anybody called Fognini to ask about his intentions for today? 😆 

Fabio Fognini to beat Miomir Kecmanovic at 1.80 with Pinnacle

Clearly, Fognini didn't care too much about last week, but he should care about this one. There's more money and prestige involved as well and he's up against an average opponent. I didn't like Kecmanovic at all when I saw him back against Cerundolo and I think Fognini should be closer to 1.57 here.

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Belgrade Challenger

Milojevic (-2,5 Games) to beat Broady at 1.80 with bet365

I like this one. A few days ago I took Milojevic against Alcaraz. He lost the match but he put Alcaraz in troubles (7-6, 6-3). I really like how he played (until the fourth game of the second set). He has a strong serve and the conditions are really good for him. He has won 13 matches on clay this year and he won the Zadar Challenger on March. Broady best surface is hard and he only has played 4 matches on clay this year. Milojevic has been playing well this year, he plays home and the surface favors him so I expect him to win this match.

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Surface of Monte Carlo is very slow.  I think this is very advantage for Garin to Beat F.A. Aliassime. Garin also is the one of best players on the clay. +3 or +2.5 handicap bets for Garin looks very good to me. Toni Nadal is new coach of F. A. Aliassime. It will take some time to raise Aliassime 's play.

What do you think on this match?

Edited by marzipan
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Tabilo, Varillas, Galan and Bagnis... and he could have lost against Bagnis. He lost in the 1st round against Christian Harrison in Delray Beach (7-6, 6-2), in the 1st round against Nagal in Buenos Aires (6-4, 6-3) and in the 1st round against Cilic in Miami (3-6, 7-5, 7-6). IMO Garin is not trustable at all. It's true that this will be Felix's first match on clay this year but he's a good player on clay, too. 2 of the 7 ATP Finals he has played have been on clay (Lyon and Rio). I wouldn't underestimate him. I also think this is a no bet mach. Anything can happen here.

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When Aslan Karatsev finds his  rhythm, he is playing his best tennis. He has self-confidence too much. Today will be first clay match of Tsitsipas. Karatsev can beat him. Can you please give some comments for this match?

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Today will be the first clay match of Tsitsipas but Karatsev had his first one yesterday as well.

I've watched yesterday's match between Karatsev and Musetti. Cannot say that I was impressed by Karatsev. I'd rather say that was unpleasantly impressed by the weak game of Musetti. He just was overpowered by the strong hits of the Russian.

Tsitsipas is good on clay. He has beaten on clay such figures and Zverev, Nadal, Rublev, Garin (who is good on clay).  It will depend of the motivation and mind state of Tsitsipas but for sure he will be  challenge few levels above Musetti.

I would give the first chance to Tsitsipas

Edited by vvararu
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Yeah, I mean the first thing is that they might not get to play today if the rain hangs around. Karatsev has upset potential for sure and Tsitsipas will get under pressure. He's the classier player and I'd probably even back him under different circumstances. It's his first match here, though, so Karatsev has the advantage on that front. I wouldn't be surprised by Karatsev winning the first set and then losing or something. If I had to back something, I'd look for backing Karatsev to win a set or cover some sort of a games handicap. 

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30 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Has anybody called Fognini to ask about his intentions for today? 😆 

To the Fognini bettors, does it not concern you that Fognini hasn't won vs anyone other than Kohlschreiber on clay since July 2019?

I have noticed his price has dropped significantly in the past couple of days to around 1.6. Any value in this price, or have I missed the boat?

Edited by AgaRadwanska
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Karatsev to beat Tsitsipas at 2.62 with bet365
Fritz to beat Bautista at 3.20 with bet365
Khachanov to beat Djere at 1.66 with bet365
Popyrin to beat Andujar at 1.50 with bet365

Andujar hasn't played in the last month cause he got an injury in his last match in Chile while Popyrin has already won 2 matches here (vs Arneodo and Hanfmann). Fritz played 3 matches on clay in Cagliari while Bautista was playing in Miami, where he reached the SFs. Fritz has already beat Bautista on clay before so I think these odds are exaggerated. This will be the first match of Khachanov on clay this year, but he will be more fresh than Djere who reached the Final in Cagliari and it was just 2 days ago. Finally, I also take Karatsev against Tsitsipas. Karatsev has already played one match here while Tsitsipas hasn't played yet on clay this year. As has been said here, Karatsev exploded the last year playing on clay when he reached the Final in 3 consecutive Challengers played on clay.

I'm not doing well with my last picks so if these ones go wrong I will take a break. GL.

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Popyrin at 1.66 against Pouille seems good value. Popyrin has beaten two decent clay courters now in Hanfmann and Andujar. Pouille's win against Pella seems much less impressive since Pella has been struggling ever since he had COVID. Pouille also lost to Berankis on clay last week, and his level doesn't seem very high at the moment. Thoughts?

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I'm really not sure about Popyrin, but he is the favorite there. How the hell did he lose the first set so poorly against Andujar, though? Did you see the match?

Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Tommy Paul 2-0 at 1.72 with Bet365

I like RBA in this spot, he beat Fritz comfortably and Paul is worse than Fritz in most regards. He won't be able to do much damage with his serve and he's not going to hold his own in longer rallies either. Obviously he can win a set, but I'd have the line at 1.57 here instead of 1.72. I also liked how RBA turned things around when under pressure against Fritz yesterday.

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40 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm really not sure about Popyrin, but he is the favorite there. How the hell did he lose the first set so poorly against Andujar, though? Did you see the match?

Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Tommy Paul 2-0 at 1.72 with Bet365

I like RBA in this spot, he beat Fritz comfortably and Paul is worse than Fritz in most regards. He won't be able to do much damage with his serve and he's not going to hold his own in longer rallies either. Obviously he can win a set, but I'd have the line at 1.57 here instead of 1.72. I also liked how RBA turned things around when under pressure against Fritz yesterday.

He was out of rhythm in the beginning of the first set, low first serve % and leaking unforced errors. Seems like he gave up on the first set to conserve energy, then came out and won first eight points of the second set. I'm quite impressed with his mental strength. Hanfmann I think was the better player but Popyrin pulled it off as soon as Hanfmann got a little tight. Also won seven straight points in the final set tiebreak against Andujar after being down 3-0. He is still not as good on clay, but Pouille's movement looks a tad slow to be able keep up with him.

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11 hours ago, marzipan said:

I think Garin will beat Millman at 2 sets. He was so good against Aliassime. I can not say same thing for Millman. Humbert had a lot of unforced errors.

Agreed. I took Garin -3.5 games soon as it was put up on B365. They are now only offering -4.5, which I think is a bit risky.

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Andrey Rublev to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut at 1.52 with Pinnacle

I backed RBA today and he did get the job done, but I think he loses tomorrow. He's been a bit shabby overall so far, just lucky with the draw and enjoying the conditions. Rublev is way better than Fritz/Paul given the surface and I think he'll get the revenge he wants.

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Andrey Rublev to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut at 1.52 with Pinnacle

I backed RBA today and he did get the job done, but I think he loses tomorrow. He's been a bit shabby overall so far, just lucky with the draw and enjoying the conditions. Rublev is way better than Fritz/Paul given the surface and I think he'll get the revenge he wants.

You don't say? Just kidding, I backed Rublev to win in straights. 

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Cristian Garín (+4.5) to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 1.72 with Bet365

Garin was looking good in his last two matches. He had very few unforced error and got points from long rallies. H2H statiscs say that this handicap is good bet for this match. I dont trust Greek's play. Sometimes his game is not stable in a match. Garin again will play with few unforced error and he can also beat Tsitsipas.

 

Good luck 

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