Japan J1 2021

[Mrsha]

Hi, it seems there is no interest here in this league in general, so instead of opening topics every round it is probably fine to keep whole season in one thread (can see it was done like this last years as well). If this is not OK, one of the mods please advise

[Mrsha]

Date	Home	Away	h%	d%	a%	jwb1%	RawG	aTG1m	HpC	ApC	TotC
14/03/2021	Yokohama F. Marinos	Urawa Reds	65.1%	15.9%	19.0%	22.2%	3.68	3.30	7.42	4.85	12.27
14/03/2021	Shimizu S-Pulse	Sagan Tosu	33.8%	23.0%	43.3%	22.4%	2.82	2.74	4.88	4.90	9.78
14/03/2021	Oita Trinita	Tokyo	29.9%	28.4%	41.8%	24.9%	2.04	2.23	4.55	3.90	8.45
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Our model strongly likes goals in Yokohama game, as well as hcap bet on hosts, both  Yokohama -1 @2.16 and over 3 @2.06 are plays for us. Hosts may be a bit weaker than last season, but this is still one of the top Japanese sides, perhaps sometimes a bit too offensive for their own good. Their 9th place at the end of last season was a fluke, qualif for Champs Lge was/is the target, while Jap giants Urawa have clearly regressed over last few years; and despite finishing just one place below Yokohama last season, with just 1 point less, the difference between these two was huge. Perhaps end-season difference in goal-difference between the two was better indicator of true quality diff (+10 Yoko and -13 Urawa). It’s early days in new season, and Urawa had a good display in first round v Tokyo, but went south with performances afterwards and looking at their squad it is just difficult to be optimistic about their sudden return to top places. This kind of hcap for home team in Japan never sounds great (well.. except if Kawasaki are involved); and price could probably improve tomorrow, perhaps above -3/4 200, so you might wanna wait a bit on this one, but officially we can recommend it at current prices too. Overs price should go down tomorrow, it does seem like ‘clearer’ bet of the two, but we like both. Also, for fun shot, over 9 corners @1.91. Both Shimizu and Sagan Tosu improved a lot in second part of last season, but that goes especially to Tosu side, who, after playing some of the worst, defensive-minded football in J1 history for a couple of years, and flirting with relegation, found their mojo, started playing a lot better, started actually dominating games (which was unheard of for a few years!), and ended season on a 4-9-1 run, decent record which actually should’ve been better. They kept it up, 3 games and 3 wins this season, albeit this run includes games against two of the worst J1 sides in Shonan and Sendai. We make this game eachy, model even has Sagan as 43 favorites, so Sagan Tosu dnb @2.14 seems ok. As for totals, would need over 2.5 @2.05 or over 2.25 @1.78 to try it, it is v v close, not expecting this current price (1.98ish) to drop and imo there is a decent chance it improves tomorrow b4 ko. If not, maybe chance to catch it at halftime – over 1.25 at above 2.00 mark would do it, if it is 0-0, 1-1 or 1 goal halftime.

[Mrsha]

17th March games

Home	Away	h%	d%	a%	jwb1%	RawG	aTG1m	HpC	ApC	TotC
Avispa Fukuoka	Kashima Antlers	18.7%	20.8%	60.6%	26.2%	2.61	2.61	3.95	6.57	10.52
Tokyo	Shonan Bellmare	58.6%	22.8%	18.7%	27.3%	2.33	2.43	5.49	3.56	9.05
Urawa Reds	Consadole Sapporo	25.6%	21.0%	53.4%	24.0%	2.94	2.82	3.76	5.61	9.37
Yokohama F. Marinos	Tokushima Vortis	55.5%	19.5%	24.9%	23.3%	3.23	3.01	6.00	4.52	10.53
Cerezo Osaka	Oita Trinita	48.8%	26.4%	24.8%	26.4%	2.13	2.29	4.75	4.62	9.36
Vissel Kobe	Kawasaki Frontale	12.6%	13.3%	74.1%	22.0%	3.53	3.20	4.15	5.86	10.01
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Shimizu S-Pulse	57.5%	20.4%	22.1%	24.7%	2.89	2.79	7.41	4.39	11.80
Sagan Tosu	Kashiwa Reysol	39.8%	26.4%	33.8%	23.2%	2.28	2.39	5.45	3.33	8.78
Nagoya Grampus	Yokohama	61.0%	22.6%	16.5%	28.1%	2.24	2.37	4.67	3.71	8.38

* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)

A few interesting choices this round imo. Model has Kashima at 60.5%, we are a little bit higher at 63%, so Kashima -1 @2.18 makes the cut. With this congested schedule in Jap new season there is always danger of heavier rotations, especially for away teams in midweek games, but Kashima are an elite Japanese team, who for much of last season looked like clearly 2^nd best (no match for Kawasaki in this league though) – but poor 1-1-5 start n dome bizarre losses in last couple of months prevented them from qualifying for Champs Lge. They have big game v Nagoya next, so we can expect some rotations and perhaps after lineups get announced (unlike Europe/SouthAm, in Japan J1 and J2 you always have official lineups 2 hours before kick off) price can improve, but this is already fine for bet suggestion. Kobe-Kawasaki over 3 @2.00 also looks ok. Kawasaki are by far the best team in the league, they can rotate 5-6 players and lose nothing in quality, and in Kobe have an opponent who will have their fair share of attacks and chances created, so this should be a good game. 8 of their last mutual meetings, and 11 of last 12 ended over 2.5 line, 7 of those over 3.5 line, difficult to expect anything different this time, both should score, model has goals v high and current price is more than enough for us, would recommend it down to over 3 @1.93. Next one is Hiroshima -1/2 @1.93, they are one of many teams who have CL qualification as goal this season, they are well balanced side and should have good control over this game - would do this bet down to 1.87 (or -3/4 2.12). Shimizu somehow escaped with 0-0 v Tosu at home few days ago, in game that was thoroughly dominated by away side, in fact Shimizu looked like J2 material again, like they did in first part of last season. It could be just a blip, as they did improve a lot in 2^nd part of last season and also started this one fine, but this last performance was just horrible, and unless huge improvement is made they will be in trouble tomorrow. Goals are also interesting, would like to get over 2.5 @1.95 for a shot, market is quite close. If not, low scoring 0-0, 1-1 or 1 goal first half and over 1.25 @1.91 as target price for overs. Urawa-Sapporo over 2.75 @2.10 is just about there, this price should improve a bit tomorrow so probably fine to wait, hcap for away side also looks tempting as it seems there is a bit of difference between these two, with former giants Urawa just not inspiring confidence. Actually it could get ugly for them this season, however going against them in this one unless it is -1/4 @1.95 or higher just does not feel right, and with price unlikely to get there it will be a pass on hcap. For all these games weather should be fine, sunny, pleasant temp and no rain expected.

[LaoJuntasa]

Come to think of it, I don't see Japan participate much in international leagues aside from the Olympics.