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Racing Chat - Saturday 6th March


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Not the best weekends racing but still some competitive action. The ground at Newbury despite a 7mm shower on Wednesday evening is drying and is likely to be good with some dead patches whilst at Doncaster it’s good also with a dry forecast. Kelso is slightly worse at good to soft but also drying.
 
Here’s a quick look at the Terrestrial TV races.
 
Newbury 115
A 3m 2f veterans handicap chase. A wide open race that I must admit doesn’t really appeal to me. The drying ground will suit top weight, the Paul Nicholl’s trained Present Man and with Bryony on top will no doubt be given a positive ride. The two rank outsiders Sizing Codelco & Colorado Doc are out of form and hard to fancy but any of the others could win and this is a race left alone in my opinion.
 
Kelso 130
A 2m 2f grade 2 novices’ hurdle where I’m happy enough to take on the favourite of Dan Skelton’s My Drogo who looks too short at around 6/4. Yes he did have the subsequent Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring  Glory back in third when winning at Ascot back in December but he’s penalised for that and at today’s weights only comes out joint 4th best. The one I like here is the Donald McCain trained Bareback Jack who is penalised 3lb for his Musselburgh win last month but is still unbeaten and holds an entry still for the Supreme on the opening day of Cheltenham in 10 days time.
 
BAREBACK JACK 1 point win @ 5/1 William Hill
 
Newbury 150
The 2m 4f Greatwood Cup has become a bit of a Paul Nicholls benevolent race over the years with him winning 5 of the last 7 and is represented by two today in top weight Capeland and the more appealing and well backed during the week Grand Sancy.  He’s not been seen since choking when finishing a disappointing last of three at Wincanton in November and he obviously comes with his issues as he has had two wind operations in his life. He should run a big race with Bryony Frost doing the steering. There’s plenty of dangers and an outsider I’m also keen on having on my side is the Skelton’s Born Survivor who although no spring chicken has tumbled down the weights for running on soft ground but the last time he raced on good ground was when winning easily at Ayr in April 2019 off of 142. He can race off of 138 here so with ground in his favour and on a winning mark is worth a small ew saver.
 
GRAND SANCY 1 point win @ 5/1 William Hill
BORN SURVIVOR 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 12345 Paddy Power
 
Kelso 205
A competitive 2m 5f handicap hurdle with recent winners Torn And Frayed and Flash Collonges at the head of the market. It was a pretty poor contest the former won last time and has to shoulder a 7lb penalty here. With the Paul Nicholls trained latter making his handicap debut and of more interest especially as his team are in such fine form. I do think however that there’s a decent  bet towards the bottom of the handicap in Mark Walford’s Mega Yeats who was a smart mare when trained by Ruth Jefferson a couple of seasons ago winning  a bumper and a couple of novice hurdles. She ran really well after a 425 day absence when runner up to the 137 rated Tomorrow Mystery of Paul Nicholls beaten 2 1/2 lengths in a ‘bumper for jumpers’ and has actually been dropped 7lb since we last saw her run in a handicap and  is now rated 124. Her Yorkshire based trainer has been among the winners recently and she looks a good each way bet.
 
MEGA YEATS 2 points each way @ 5/1 Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 odds 1234
 
Doncaster 220
Conditions look ideal for this Alan King trained mare who was last seen when running a decent 4th against the males at Cheltenham in November. She had previously won twice on good ground and now back against her own sex on ground that suits she’ll be hard to beat. The best in at the weights today is Philip Kirby’s Rayna’s World but she has to prove her stamina. Newport Pagnell based Stuart Edmunds saddles two here with preference for Go Millie Go who’s stepping up in class but is on a hat trick and can also run well.
 
WYNN HOUSE 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill
 
Kelso 240
A listed Chase run over just short of 3 miles. Cloth Cap hasn’t been since since winning the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury back in November and the drying ground will be very much in his favour. The Grand National is his Spring target and  if he were to win this he wouldn’t pick up a penalty. He does however have a stone to find with the likes of Aso on official ratings. Definitly Red won this last year but this year’s contest looks stronger and he’s hardly been in the best of form this season. The form line to check out here is the Warwick contest from 19 days ago when Two For Gold was given a terrific ride by David Bass, who in typical Bass style fired him into his fences and beat Aso a neck. Aso can renew rivalry here on 6lb better terms and that should be enough to exact revenge.
 
ASO 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365
 
Doncaster 255
A 2m class 2 handicap chase with all 7 runners having a chance of sorts. Alan King could be in for a good day with the likes of Wynn House and Canelo and it would not be a surprise if his Ballywood was to win this. His form figures on good ground read 3041121426 and he clearly enjoys to hear his hooves rattle. This will be his second run following a breathing operation which does sometimes prove to be the best run as the horse now knows to have confidence in his breathing. He’s 1lb lower than his last winning mark so everything looks in place for a good run and he could be the value bet.
 
BALLYWOOD 1 point win @ 5/1 Paddy Power
 
Kelso 315
A wide open Class 2 handicap hurdle. The Shunter is the early favourite and it’s hard not to like his chance. He impressed when running away with the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham in the Autumn and is now only 6lb higher. His trainer Emmet Mullins plundered the Dovecote Novice Hurdle at Kempton last Saturday with Cape Gentleman so has his team in excellent shape. He’s the one to beat although at the prices looks scant value. Dan Skelton’s Favoir impressed when winning a grade 2 novice hurdle last time out at Haydock but his reward for that is a 13lb hike in the handicap which seems quite steep. The bet for me here though is Paul Nicholl’s Solo. An impressive winner of the Adonis at Kempton a year ago he only went off 4/1 for the Triumph Hurdle 19 days later finishing 8th. He’s not fired in three outings this season but his mark has dropped 8lb and will appreciate the better ground he races on today. By all accounts he’s s working well currently at Ditcheat.
 
SOLO 1 point EW @ 10/1 Betfred 1/5 odds 1234
 
Doncaster 330
A disappointing turn out for the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase run over 3m 2f of Town Moor on drying good ground. Bottom weight Chef D’Oeuvre is an interesting runner following a wind op back on better ground for the Sam England yard who do so well but this is all about Alan King’s Canelo who is been trained for the Grand National for which he’s currently a 40/1 chance and is set to carry a nice low weight of 10-4. He’ll get no penalty for the big race if winning here and will handle the good ground fine with his form figures on good reading 212. He’s won 3 of his last 5 starts and was placed in the other two starts in decent handicaps. His opponents today are all struggling for form and Tom Bellamy who’s two from two on him this season should be winning this.
 
CANELO 2 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor
 
 
 
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1.15 Newbury-Tricky vetrans race & the one i'm on is hard to win with  but i think today might be the day for SINGLEFARMPAYMENT but its a small win bet @8/1.

1.50 Newbury-  Wide open i'll go for a bit of e/w value with 20/1 shot THE RUSSIAN  DOYEN who is better than form figures suggest.

3.15 Kelso- Pipe horse being backed here and its my main fancy today  coral still got 16's up i'm on e/w don't think it will last NIGHT EDITION is the horse in question.

 

 

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My three selections:

1.15 Newbury

Present Man - won at Chepstow by the smallest of margins and Paul Nicholls and co have a good record in these types of events. (£10 win at 11/2)

1.50 Newbury

Another Crick - was 4th at Warwick last time out, so stamina and ground shouldn’t pose too much issues. (£10 win at 11/1)

3.15 Kelso

Faivoir - Pretty much same reasons as above albeit he won over heavy ground at Haydock last time out (£10 win at 13/2)

 

All odds and bets on Bet365

 

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All prices Bet365:

11.45 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Luna Magic @ 12/1

12.50 Lingfield - 2pts win King Robert @ 5/1

1.15 Newbury - 1pt win Singlefarmpayment @ 6/1

1.25 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Royal Birth @ 20/1

1.50 Newbury - 1pt e/w Born Survivor @ 14/1

2.05 Kelso - 1pt e/w Weather Front @ 14/1

3.05 Newbury - 2pts win Java Point @ 5/1

3.15 Kelso - 1pt e/w Hunters Call @ 10/1

 

Also done a win double on Any News (1.30 Kelso, 3/1) and Wynn House (2.20 Doncaster, 11/8)

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Late in writing up but entered some under the KO cup qualifying round

2.40 Kelso Aso £5.50 at 3.6 = £14.01 profit if it wins.  We usually associate Venetia with heavy going runners but I think this one will be OK on good to soft

4.15 Nb Silent Revolution Trying to get £5 win at 3.45 but this now looks unlikely as it is currently 2.78; I'll let it win at that price.  My first choice was Fame And Concrete but that became a non runner

4.40 Don Kildimo £8 win at 2.36 = £10.66 profit of it wins.  This looks to be the best bet of the day for me so far

Likely total stakes = £13.50

 

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On 3/5/2021 at 4:13 PM, Tedthewolf said:

 

3.15 Kelso- Pipe horse being backed here and its my main fancy today  coral still got 16's up i'm on e/w don't think it will last NIGHT EDITION is the horse in question.

 

 

Ran a really nice race  is entered for 2 races at Cheltenham 33/1 & 25/1 NRNB  has a decent e/w  chance in whatever race he turns up worth an e/w bet IMO.

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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Late in writing up but entered some under the KO cup qualifying round

2.40 Kelso Aso £5.50 at 3.6 = £14.01 profit if it wins.  We usually associate Venetia with heavy going runners but I think this one will be OK on good to soft

4.15 Nb Silent Revolution Trying to get £5 win at 3.45 but this now looks unlikely as it is currently 2.78; I'll let it win at that price.  My first choice was Fame And Concrete but that became a non runner

4.40 Don Kildimo £8 win at 2.36 = £10.66 profit of it wins.  This looks to be the best bet of the day for me so far

Likely total stakes = £13.50

 

RESULTS UPDATE

What a disappointing day.  My best bet let me down.  I wasn't worrried about the horse that was made favourite but got hammered by the 7/2 shot.  Aso ran a shocker but hats off to Cloth Cap that was a great performance.  Even Silent Revolution got matched at 3.45 from 2.78 before the off.  The market knew something.  All this means is that I have wiped out all of yesterday's profit which is a pity.  My revised balance is now £593.42 (£500 Bank)

Nothing doing at Sedgefield for me tomorrow as there is only one graded race with an 8/13 favourite running.  More promising at Huntingdon where Nicky Henderson is doing battle with the Skeltons combo

 

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