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Ligue 1 Predictions > Mar 3rd - 10th


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The French Ligue 1 action is focused on midweek games over the next couple of weeks. There are no league games on the weekend due to the Coupe de France matches taking place. @StefanBB, it was a big bet backing Lyon last week and even though it didn't come off  you were close. I think the bookies did massively under-estimate Marseille but that red card on 70 minutes definitely helped them see it out. @betcatalog, you also fell victim to that Lyon draw. Who are you both backing this week? @Mrsha, what are your thoughts ahead of these games?

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Lille vs Marseille

Last weekend, Lille missed the chance to stay four points clear of PSG in the title race. They picked up only a point against struggling Strasbourg at the home ground. They were on the verge of the first defeat since early January, but the late equalizer kept their unbeatable streak running. Lille is two points ahead of PSG, three of Lyon and four of Monaco. The title race in the Ligue 1 hasn’t been this exciting for many years. Christophe Galtier’s side lost only two games this season, while their defense is the tightest in the competition. However, Yusuf Yazici and the lads failed to win in their previous two home games, and they want to get back on the winning track. After Ajax eliminated them from the Europa League, Lille can focus on the Lige 1 title campaign.

Marseille managed to stabilize its form lately after big turbulences in the club. Jorge Sampaoli took over the bench, and the visitors drew against Lyon last weekend. They were a bit lucky, though, since one of their opponent’s players was sent off. Marseille hasn’t lost four rounds in a row, but the visitors booked only one win during that period. Florian Thauvin and the lads need to improve their finishing, as they netted only 34 times this season. Nevertheless, Marseille lost only three games on the road this season, despite failing to win in the previous five. They still hope to secure the continental qualification as the away side is two points behind Metz, with one game in hand. It’s going to be a difficult challenge for Marseille, but they want to take something from this game as well.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Although both sides have been involved in many draws lately, Lille is a slight favorite in this clash. We believe they will take the opportunity to remain on the top of the table by celebrating another victory.

Goals Market Prediction

Despite conceding in the previous four games, Lille is doing an excellent job in the back. Marseille has trouble converting its chances into goals, and we believe this game might remain under a 2.5 margin.

Lille to win @ 1.70

Under 2.5 FT @ 1.65

Correct score 1:0 @ 5.50

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Home

Away

h%

d%

a%

jwb1%

RawG

aTG1m

HpC

ApC

TotC

Brest

Dijon

55.9%

24.2%

19.9%

26.1%

2.54

2.55

5.76

4.03

9.78

Olympique Lyonnais

Rennes

57.9%

23.2%

18.9%

25.7%

2.71

2.67

4.47

4.51

8.98

Metz

Angers SCO

43.0%

29.7%

27.4%

25.2%

2.07

2.25

5.31

5.43

10.74

Nice

Nimes

51.5%

24.1%

24.5%

24.5%

2.77

2.70

4.78

4.70

9.48

Saint-Etienne

Lens

35.8%

27.9%

36.3%

21.7%

2.36

2.44

4.81

4.80

9.61

Bordeaux

PSG

12.2%

19.0%

68.8%

25.3%

2.84

2.75

4.11

6.03

10.14

Lille

Olympique Marseille

53.1%

28.3%

18.6%

28.2%

2.00

2.20

4.48

3.40

7.89

Montpellier

Lorient

51.8%

22.1%

26.1%

22.9%

3.23

3.00

5.27

4.65

9.92

Nantes

Reims

34.4%

32.6%

33.0%

23.0%

1.82

2.09

4.18

3.29

7.48

Strasbourg

Monaco

26.4%

23.5%

50.1%

23.6%

2.95

2.82

3.08

5.18

8.26

* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)

Not a lot re hcaps, but a few totals look interesting. First, an ugly looking under 3 @1.86 in Lyon, this is above 5% value even if we go with 2.90 TG number. Perhaps 2.85 as some sort of max to bet off, so down to under 3 @1.77 or under 2.75 @2.05 still fine for cheeky shot. There is preference for Rennes on hcap, which seems even uglier to unders, with visitors in v bad form, no wins in last 7 and 4 straight losses (1 in Cup), so perhaps coaching change that followed was not a big surprise – but it is doubtful how much it will help them long term, as coach Julien Stephan left after 2 and a half years having left a strong mark here with Rennes playing CL and LE as well as winning Coupe de France with him on helm. Lyon have Paqueta suspended following his red card at Marseille, and after a strong run they dropped points in 2 of their last 3 (almost in all 3 actually, as halftime 3-0 lead at Brest almost got to 3-3 in the end), title race in France really heated up with 4 clubs in it and PSG not even close to any sort of domination they had in previous years. Various problems and injuries at PSG played their part here, but it is fair to say that Lyon have been probably the best French side so far. If you want a bizarre h2h info, you should look no further than this fixture: despite consistently being one of the top French teams in last couple of decades, Lyon always had problems with Rennes at home – incredibly, they only won 3 out of last 15 home league games v Rennes, losing last 3 (last 4 if we also include a semifinal cup game from 2 seasons ago, with Rennes winning competition in the end). Strasbourg-Monaco over 2.5 @1.95 is also worth a punt, I was hoping for evens here and it could get there eventually (price improved in last several hours), but this is already enough. Monaco are the form team in France and somewhat surprising title hopefuls after going 10-2-0 in their last 12 league games, they are certainly happy with 2 consecutive clean sheets as well, but this is side whose 21 of 27 league games this season finished over 2.5 line. Strasbourg should’ve conceded more goals at Lille at the weekend, as hosts were wasteful from some promising position, missing the target most of the time, with gk Kawashima also playing his part – however, Strasbourg could have scored more as well, actually could have won it in dying minutes. They are now unbeaten in 3, like to play more open than average French side and have a good oppo in Monaco here, with recent h2h also favoring goals, last 7 between the two all ended over 2.5 line (this is from last 3 seasons plus reverse fixture this season, as next h2h piece of info would take us to year 2008). Next one is Montpellier-Lorient over 2.5 @1.93 – crystal clear model bet, though it has to be said that Montpellier’s key forward Delort is still out. This bet currently works off TG 2.90 as well, so with no further disastrous team-news or bad weather conditions, I’m happy to risk it (would set o2.5 @1.87 and o2.75 @2.08 as some min prices to bet). Nothing on hcap, but was hoping for better price on hosts tbh, perhaps if tomorrow market goes for Lorient and price on Montpellier improves, some rough target would be -1/2 @2.12. Just looking now at corners market for fun, maybe under 9 corners @1.95 in Nantes is worth some beer money. Originaly, hcaps on Nimes and Metz seemed interesting, but quite a bit of chaos with team-news (and no important confirmations yet) means I’ll pass for now. No rain or stronger winds for these games tomorrow, weather should be fine, clear. Cheers

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Strasbourg

They play poorly this season. Now they are the fifteenth in the table of the League, struggling hard to avoid relegation. It seems that they are too weak in defensive, which have conceded 41 goals this season so far.

 

Monaco

They play so well on offensive that they have scored 56 goals in total, which are the second in the League. They are in form at present. With a thirteen-match unbeaten run, they rank the fourth in the table of League table. They are looking good for a shot at the title.

 

Verdict:

Monaco are certainly better than Strasbourg. Even if Monaco are two players short, they win over Strasbourg at 3-2 this season before. It is believed that Monaco will get a clean sheet from Strasbourg in the upcoming game.

 

Strasbourg VS Monaco

Prediction: 0-2, 0-3

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