Jump to content
Announcements
*** Punchestown Festival Competition: Well done to 1st. Craig Bluenose, 2nd. Lee Grays & 3rd. Carole Dawney ***
** April Poker League Result : 1st kevsul, 2nd Rob Valk, 3rd McG **
** Last Man Standing Results - glavintoby & Redno2009 both win £125 **
** April Naps Competition Result: 1st Sugardaddyken, 2nd TRAINMAD091, 3rd Harry Faint99, 4th Gary66. KO Cup Winner Waggy, Most Winners: Xtc12 **

Serie A & B Predictions > Mar 2nd - 4th


Recommended Posts

Hi,  there is no new topic on PL forum for this round (not sure if we are allowed to open these, as they contain some standard odds-rtgs data), so with previous post in this topic previewing game for tomorrow, I will also leave my Italy Serie B comments for tomorrow here, please if moderator can later put the post to appropriate midweek thread (if someone opens it)...

Home

Away

h%

d%

a%

jwb1%

RawG

aTG1m

HpC

ApC

TotC

Frosinone

Monza

20.4%

35.9%

43.7%

27.2%

1.90

2.08

4.67

5.36

10.03

Cittadella

Pescara

57.6%

29.1%

13.3%

26.7%

2.49

2.47

6.44

3.60

10.04

Ascoli

Pisa

31.1%

32.2%

36.7%

22.6%

2.53

2.49

4.99

4.29

9.28

Lecce

Virtus Entella

59.7%

26.2%

14.1%

24.4%

3.05

2.83

5.28

3.75

9.03

Vicenza Virtus

Cremonese

34.9%

33.8%

31.3%

22.1%

2.31

2.35

4.62

4.55

9.16

* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)

Monza -1/4 @2.11 is a bet, although tbh I was hoping for a bit better price, and it may improve later on, but this is already enough to recommend it. Monza are a serious promotion contender this season, no real weak spots in this side, though their form is not so good, with just 3 wins in last 9 games, and not undeservedly so, as performances dropped a bit recently as well, highlighted with saturday's 0-0 at home v fellow promotion hopefuls Cittadella, in a game where Monza were outplayed in general and probably should be happy with a point in the end. Two of their biggest stars Boateng and Balotelli are out for this one, but while the former is not irrelevant, Mario's absence should make no difference at all. Youngster Pirola who impressed in last two games will also sit this one out, but except for full 90 mins of playtime in those last 2 games he has just 35 more minutes this season. After 25 games, Monza's +2.20 shtgt differential is the best in the league, while their +4.05 total shots diff is 4th best, there is really little doubt this side is placed in current standings where they should be - and pretty much same can be said for mid-placed Frosinone, who should not flirt with relegation but also should have nothing to do with promotion race... though with playoff system in place, you never know. If Monza's form has dropped a bit in last several weeks, Frosinone's has pretty much plummeted, with just 1 single win in last 13 games, and it was a lucky one, 3-2 away win against the run of play at bottom-placed Entella. Hosts have more quality on paper than what they are showing on field, there are some high profile names for Serie B here, with several of them playing for Frosi in Serie A two seasons ago; and vast majority from last season's playoff run are also here... but this is simply not a good enough 'team', it's the second season in a row they seem to be missing something, they were lucky to get into playoffs last season in first place, then proceeded to almost win it, as they had Spezia on the ropes in that last game, but it wasn't to be. While I was hoping for dnb 180 or -1/4 220+, current price is still high enough as some min to bet would be in range of 203 -1/4.

Lecce-Entella over 2.5 @1.93 is also a bet, though admittedly this line feels too high for Serie B; but first, it is chaotic Lecce who are involved, this is the team whose games (deservedly) had default TG line set to 3.0 this season as well; and on the other side it is Entella, who are leaking goals but also playing with more ambition in recent weeks, their current table position won't be helped with many draws, though they would certainly be happy with one tomorrow. Expected this to be set at 2.75 with overs priced around evens, so really can't resist this, it's basically 17-18 pts from current market price (o2.5 @1.93 / o2.75 @2.19). Lecce won reverse fixture 5-1, can't expect anything similar this time around, but both teams to score and then some more is realistic, keeping clean sheets is not their strength, Entella haven't done so in last 8, crazy Lecce in last 7 (or in 21 of last 23 if you like that more).

While model likes Pisa for tomorrow, this is the game I would disagree with numbers, as Ascoli are one of the most improved sides in last month, their results improved but their performances merited even more, in fact in last 5 games their +6 shots differential and +3.2 shtgt diff are respectively 2nd best and best in the league, this was enough for just 1-2-2 record, and this run included games against Lecce, Salernitana, Pordenone and Frosinone, who are all either in playoff position or close, with only Reggiana in lower part of table (game that Ascoli lost 0-1, but had man disadvantage for 50+ mins and outshot hosts 20-9, on tgt 9-2); prior to this run they beat Brescia 2-1 at home winning shot attempts 25-6 (6-2 on tgt) and had a goalless draw in even game v very good Chievo side. Pisa are a tricky oppo to play against, and current price on Ascoli (208 -1/4) doesn't attract me enough, but in case of some huge move on visitors tomorrow, dnb 187ish on hosts would do it for anti-model bet. All of Pisa's 12 away games had 2 goals or more in it, model has this one at 2.50ish for TG, in case of price improvement overs could be interesting for bet, my current target is over 2.25 @2.03 (in case of 0-0 or 1 goal first half, rough halftime targets would be over 1 @1.75 or over 1.25 @2.25).

For all 3 mentioned games weather should be fine tomorrow, 10-13^c during games, clear or v little precip, no problems.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been waitting for this for several days.:drums Happy to see it comes.

AC Milan

They win over AS Roma at 2-1 in last game even if they are guest. Now they are the second in the table of the League, 4 points away from the first. To win the title, they have to make more points. But they have got only one victory in recent five host games.

 

Udinese

They rank the twelfth in the table of the League with 28 points. They are not in form recently, which have winless for two away games. They have less than 30% winning percentage this season so far.

 

Verdict:

AC Milan get 4W-3D-3L from Udinese in past head-to-head clashes. There is a big gap between AC Milan and Udinese at present. Although AC Milan do not play well as host recently, they still take the upper hand over Udinese. So AC Milan will possibly win.

 

AC Milan VS Udinese

1x2 Pick: 1

Link to post
Share on other sites

Parma vs Inter

Parma struggles this season as they are the second-worst team in the league. The hosts booked only two wins so far in the campaign and picked up 15 points. Roberto D’Aversa’s side had a 2:0 halftime lead in the previous two rounds, but those games eventually ended in 2:2 draws. Parma has severe troubles converting its chances into goals, as Andreas Cornelius and the lads netted only 19 times. I Crociati desperately need points at Stadio Ennio Tardini as they remained undefeated only once in the past five games at their ground. The hosts scored only five goals in their backyard, and they need urgent improvement. However, a tough challenge is ahead of Parma, as the best team in Serie A comes to town.

On the other hand, Inter enjoys an excellent streak that launched them to the top of the table. They missed the chance to win only once on the previous seven occasions and celebrated five times in a row. Antonio Conte’s team is four points ahead of Milan, and their confidence is sky-high. Inter was better than Juventus, Lazio, and Milan during that streak and proved to be the hottest title contender. Romelu Lukaku and the lads are lethal for the oppositions’ goalkeepers as they scored 60 goals so far. Despite some troubles in the back, Inter conceded only once in the previous seven rounds. They are the second-best visitors in the league, and they tied two victories on the road. Inter wants to continue the winning streak and keep their advantage over rivals intact.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Inter is a firm favorite in this clash, and everything except their win would be a surprise. We believe the visitors will meet the expectations and secure their advantage at halftime.

Goals Market Prediction

The away side improved its defending lately, while the hosts lack efficiency. Therefore, Inter might keep the clean sheet in this one.

Inter HT-FT @ 1.75

BTTS No @ 1.80

Correct score 0:2 @ 7.00

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...