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Racing Chat - Saturday 27th February


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For the first time in months it looks likely that the ground will ride on the good side at Kempton and that makes the whole card very interesting although it’s back to the norm of soft ground at Newcastle. Here’s my thoughts on the Terrestrial TV races.
 
150 Kempton
A disappointing turnout for the Pendil Novices’ Chase with 3lb penalties to be carried by the top two Coole Cody and Ga Law. It’s the latter that appeals to me. Jamie Snowden’s 5 year old is a fast and efficient jumper who’s impressed in winning his first three chases on good or good to firm ground. His most impressive effort came when winning the ‘Rising Stars’ novices’ Chase at Wincanton in November. He was only third on his latest start but that was over 2 miles and on soft ground, neither which play to his strengths. The two that beat him that day were Allmankind and Hitman so it wasn’t a bad run by any means.
The big danger will be Paul Nicholl’s Tamaroc Du Mathan who tried to make a race of it with Shishkin at Kempton over Christmas but couldn’t live with that star ending up a respectable 13 length second. At today’s weights there’s nothing between him and Ga Law but preference with conditions to suit has to be with the latter. Son Of Camas is up against it here at the weights whilst Coole Cody may have had his day in the sun as such when winning the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Cheltenham off of a low weight last November.
 
GA LAW 2 points win @ 15/8 Paddy Power
 
205 Lingfield
A 5f sprint listed event with a small field of only seven declared.
Likely favourite is Moss Gill who’s best run last year was when third to Battash in the Group 1 Nonthorpe  at York. Obviously on that run he wins this but this will be a totally different ball game on the poly track racing around bends. He’s yet to race here but his all weather form figures read 221. He’s the most likely winner but I’ll take him on from a value point of view with the Robert Cowell trained Rocket Action who’s all weather form figures read 1212114 although he has yet to race here at this Surrey track. He’s a speedy type and the booking of Hollie Doyle catches the eye (Cowell also runs Blue De Vega with Ray Dawson in the saddle who is unable to claim here).
 
ROCKET ACTION 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill
 
2.25 Kempton
The Adonis juvenile hurdle, a grade 2 race which can sometimes throw up a good one (Zarkandar won it back in 2011 and went on to win the Triumph Hurdle two weeks later).
The short price favourite here is Tritonic, trained by Alan King and owned by Max McNeill. He’s very good on the flat with an official rating of 99 where he ran some solid races including when just been touched off in a 1m 4f handicap at Royal Ascot. He made his hurdling debut at Ascot last month and although not impressing everyone picked up well from the last showing a willing attitude to go and pick up Casa Loupi (who re-opposes here) by a length. He’s been aimed at the Triumph Hurdle and if he were to impress expect his 12/1 odds to tumble. Honneur D’Ajonc may have had to battle with Heross De Seuil when crashing at the last at Kempton over Christmas but that one hardly advertised the form when getting turned over at odds on on Friday. Hugo Merienne is a French trainer who sends over his unbeaten gelding Margaret’s Legacy and is hard to assess although both her wins in France came on very soft ground so I’m not sure how she will handle this sounder surface.
It all points to Tritonic and he’s a confident selection here.
 
TRITONIC 2 points win @ 5/4 William Hill
 
240 Lingfield
The Betway Winter Derby with Group 3 status has attracted a small but select group of 10 furlong specialists.
The trial was run over course and distance three weeks ago when in a muddling affair Felix came late to master Forest Of Dean by a head but not late enough to beat Bangkok who misses this as he ran in the Saudi Cup last Saturday finishing 8th beaten the best part of 20 lengths but picking up a staggering £292k. This race is worth £30k to the winner. You can understand why he travelled over now!
There shouldn’t be much between Felix and Forest of Dean today although this is the latter’s third run back now from a long absence and having been beaten a length and then a head by Felix maybe ready to turn the tables on his old foe. Johnny Drama is the highest rated horse in the race but his trainer has voiced reservations about the suitability of the track so is over looked though he does  seem a big price at around 11/2 with Ryan Moore on top.
The improver in the race though is the only 4 year old, Roger Varian’s Father Of Jazz who following on from a promising debut run for Michael Bell was transferred to the Carlburg Newmarket stables of Varian and has impressively won all three of his starts. All at odds on and all in blistering style. He is hard to assess but Callum Shepherd has ridden him on all his victories this season and on official ratings is only 8lb behind the top rated Johnny Drama. It would be no shock we’re he to win but at around 13/8 is no value and my token investment would go to John Gosden, who’s won this the last two years with Wissahickon and Dubai Warrior, and his 5 year old Forest Of Dean.
 
FOREST OF DEAN 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill
 
3.00 Kempton
 
The 2 mile Dovecote novice’s hurdle is a grade 2 event. This season’s renewal may go to the Paul Nicholls trained Atholl Street who is already proven on good ground as one of his two Taunton victories this season was gained on unseasonably good ground there in November in good style. He followed up back at the Somerset track the following month, landing the odds in emphatic style. He has a Supreme Novice Hurdle entry at Cheltenham in a fortnights time and could easily gate crash the party if impressing here.
Dan Skelton is in terrific form and he saddles Calico here, a winner at Ludlow on heavy ground in January on his hurdling debut. That form has not worked out and the ground will be totally different here.
Irish challenger Cape Gentleman has to put a very disappointing effort at the Dublin Racing Festival behind him having looked a decent prospect when winning on his hurdles debut at Punchestown in December.
There are also question marks over the ground for Pyramid Place, who is stepping up in grade and Lunar Sovereign who’s two recent victories have been gained on much slower ground.
With less questions to answer than his opponents Atholl Street is the selection.
 
ATHOLL STREET 2 point win @ 2/1 Bet365
 
315 Newcastle
A wide open renewal of the Vertem Eider Handicap Chase with a stamina sapping 4 miles 1f 56 yards of the North East’s track to be negotiated on likely soft ground.
Last years winner Cross Park is back to defend his title but will have to do it 15lb higher than last year. Sam’s Adventure was well backed to beat Cheltenham hopeful Royale Pagaille last time at Haydock only to unseat at the 12th before they had really got racing. Like many in these contest he has to prove his stamina.
Another stepping up in distance is Hampshire trainer Paul Henderson’s Crossley Tender who is a model of consistency having finished in the frame in his last seven outings. He’s yet to race beyond 3 miles and his trainer hasn’t had a winner for 28 runs and 47 days so stakes should be kept small but he rarely runs a bad race and maybe worth a small ew investment in an open race.
 
CROSSLEY TENDER 1/2 point each way @ 15/2 Bet Victor 1/5 1234
 
335 Kempton
A wide open renewal of the Close brothers Handicap Chase ( formerly the Racing Post Chase) with 18 declared and currently the bookmakers betting 13/2 the field.
A case can be made for plenty with top weight Black Corton a pound lower than when going off 5/1 favourite last year and only finding Mister Malarkey too good. The latter is back for another go but is 8lb higher than then and effectively 9lb worse off with Black Corton and Bryony Frost for two lengths.
Aso is 3lb well in here for his hard fought second placing behind Two For Gold at Warwick 11 days ago and there are worse 20/1 shots than him racing today.
Alan King’s Talkischeap is being trained for the Grand National and is over looked whilst Clondaw  Castle has to prove his stamina at 3 miles though will enjoy the better ground.
Favourite Cap Du Nord is also being aimed at the Grand National and may have to win here to get a penalty to guarantee a run so will no doubt be off for his life. He’s run well all season, won’t mind the drying ground and has to be on any short list.
If you like him then you can easily make a case for Chris Gordon’s Mellow Ben who was third beaten only 4 1/2 lengths by him at Newbury and is a whopping 16lb better today. He likes the ground and can run well at a price.
The one I’m taking a chance on though is Olly Murphy’s The Butcher Said who has had another wind operation since we last saw him when he travelled like a dream in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster only to weaken from the third last to end up well beaten in 6th at the line. He actually traded at 7/4 in that race so well was he travelling and with his wind done and the ground much better here he could out run his odds and give his trainer Max McNeill, who owns Tritonic, an afternoon to remember. His form figures on good ground read 211111216 and although he comes with his well documented wind problem I can see him running well and certainly travelling well with hopefully him seeing his race out.
 
THE BUTCHER SAID  (below) 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 12345 Paddy Power

The Butcher Said.jpg

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Newcastle 3.15 

Crossley Tender 9/1 ew

Kempton 3.35

Double Shuffle 10/1 ew

The Butcher Said 11/1 ew 

 

 

  •  

The form of Double Shuffles last win has turned out strong. 
 

Second went on to finish second again 

Third won next time up 

Fifth went on to finish second 

Sixth won next time up 

He’s 5Ibs higher now but he’s a proper Kempton horse and will enjoy good ground . 

Edited by Villa Chris
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7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Don't often publish my speed figures but here you go, there is some value here.

Lingfield Derby speed ratings.

1st Johnny Drama 131

2nd Father of Jazz 130

3rd Power of States 129

4th Felix 124

5th Forest of Dean 119

 

I havent done pure speed ratings for a while but I do enjoy doing them too.....mine are similar I have ....

Father of jazz 100 p

Johnny drama 97 

Felix     94

Forest of dean 92 

Power of state 92 

I think Jonny drama could run into a place or better  at 13/2 with Ryan moore on board but father of jazz is improving rapidly and won easily last time ...I reckon hes capable of at least a 105 if  not more so could win easily if he can achieve that ....I'll stick with the fav even though small price 

Good luck if you play Jonny drama ....shoukd be a good race hes certainly got the class from listed level  because father is stepping up from class 3 !!! ...very interesting race 

Edited by richard-westwood
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All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

11.45 Lingfield - Toro Dorado @ 15/2

12.20 Lingfield - Oriental Art @ 11/1 (will get further in time but bred to be a good stayer and 2 out of 3 full siblings won on debut around this trip so looks a fair price)

1.15 Kempton - Major Dundee @ 8/1

1.50 Kempton - Coole Cody @ 7/1

2.25 Kempton - John Locke @ 14/1

2.45 Newcastle - Maid of Houxty @ 25/1

3.15 Newcastle - Big River @ 8/1    

3.35 Kempton - The Butcher Said @ 10/1

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3.15 Newcastle

Strong Economy - £5 ew at 11/1 (bet365) - Although the majority of his runs have come at Ayr, I feel that the track is not too dissimilar and the trip will most definitely suit.

3.30 Kempton 

Slate House - £5 ew at 11/1 (bet365) - Won over C&D when winning the 2019 Kauto Star. Could prove to be a contender if his jumping isn’t too shabby.

4.00 Fairyhouse 

Thunderosa - £5 ew at 13/2 (betway) - The ground shouldn’t be a concern and he has Rachael Blackmore aboard.

Edited by SirRavenous
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Trend analysis for the 3.35 at Kempton.

44 horses have had forecast odds lower than 11/1 and only 2 have won.

Top 6 in the weights have only had 1 winner from 42 runners.

Age 8 or less, 3 winners from 56 runners.

This reduces the field to a manageable 4, FINGERONTHESWITCH (14/1), SOUPY SOUPS (80/1), SLATE HOUSE (9/1) and ROMAIN DE SENAM (16/1).

Horses bred in France are 0 from 26. This removes ROMAIN DE SENAM.

Horses that ran less than 56 days are 3 from 60. This removes SLATE HOUSE.

CD winners are 0 from 18. This finally leaves 1 selection SOUPY SOUPS, the outsider at 80/1.

So much for trends !

I will start keeping a record of these to see if this sort of analysis has any merit, the big doubt is the small data size.

 

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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

5.30 Chelm Campachoochoo £3 win at 5.2 £12.35 profit if it wins.  Top rated Timeform & RPR.  The distance and class is right.  I am hoping that it didn't like Southwell and will bounce back on polytrack

All good chances are at too short prices for me today

 

 

Looks like the wheels have come off Campachoochoo; I will try and trade out at B/E.  A bit annoying that I cancelled a £10 win on Tamaroc Du Mathan at 2.02 in the 1.50 at Kempton; it was trading at 1.79 so I thought it wouldn't be matched.

 

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A question about the Naps table if I may to @MCLARKE I have made 15 selections in this months comp, however one was a non runner; just wonder if I qualify for the KO cup if I stay within the top 25?  Also, I believe that Graham used to reduce the qualifying number of 15 selection where there were a short number of racing days within a month.  I will be grateful if you will let me know? I was going to select Tamaroc Du Mathan but didn't like to bet at less than evens

 

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5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

A non runner does count as a selection (unless the meeting is abandoned) so you have qualified for the KO cup assuming you are in the top 25.

To avoid any confusion we are sticking strictly to the rules, i.e. 15 selections are required no matter how many racing days there are in the month.

The 15 selection rule is very fair and i wholeheartedly agree that the rule should be static and adhered to, then it stays fair for all. @MCLARKE I think the job you do is difficult enough without having to take flexible rules into account I have been the biggest critic of not sticking to the rules otherwise why bother to have them. the Job you have done since you took over can not be praised highly enough. Long may you continue to do it.

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12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I havent done pure speed ratings for a while but I do enjoy doing them too.....mine are similar I have ....

Father of jazz 100 p

Johnny drama 97 

Felix     94

Forest of dean 92 

Power of state 92 

I think Jonny drama could run into a place or better  at 13/2 with Ryan moore on board but father of jazz is improving rapidly and won easily last time ...I reckon hes capable of at least a 105 if  not more so could win easily if he can achieve that ....I'll stick with the fav even though small price 

Good luck if you play Jonny drama ....shoukd be a good race hes certainly got the class from listed level  because father is stepping up from class 3 !!! ...very interesting race 

Interesting race fortunately i didn't play to big stakes or anywhere near because they were all so close in the ratings. but we must be honest here and say it was a very badly run race by the Jockeys and to me just shows the one thing you can't factor in to a race is jockeys, Ryan Moore is one of the best in the world but on the aw he is average, every piece of evidence i have says don't try to make all at Lingfield if you want to win especially beyond sprint trips. (the exception being Sir Mark Prescott horses) Balding would have been better off using an aw stalwart although the horse may have not been fully fit but thats a different issue. if someone can explain the price of the winner to me i would greatly appreciate it, beaten by felix twice and the slowest horse in the field. the race time was also very slow for the horses contesting it, overall a very disappointing race and disappointing performances from the jockeys.

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6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Trend analysis for the 3.35 at Kempton.

44 horses have had forecast odds lower than 11/1 and only 2 have won.

Top 6 in the weights have only had 1 winner from 42 runners.

Age 8 or less, 3 winners from 56 runners.

This reduces the field to a manageable 4, FINGERONTHESWITCH (14/1), SOUPY SOUPS (80/1), SLATE HOUSE (9/1) and ROMAIN DE SENAM (16/1).

Horses bred in France are 0 from 26. This removes ROMAIN DE SENAM.

Horses that ran less than 56 days are 3 from 60. This removes SLATE HOUSE.

CD winners are 0 from 18. This finally leaves 1 selection SOUPY SOUPS, the outsider at 80/1.

So much for trends !

I will start keeping a record of these to see if this sort of analysis has any merit, the big doubt is the small data size.

 

Not as much analysis as you here but  that is why i had soupy soups as my daily nap. funny race though going like the clappers from the off, so although it got beat it ran well from too far back in my opinion so maybe your trend analysis was a lot better than you think.

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15 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Interesting race fortunately i didn't play to big stakes or anywhere near because they were all so close in the ratings. but we must be honest here and say it was a very badly run race by the Jockeys and to me just shows the one thing you can't factor in to a race is jockeys, Ryan Moore is one of the best in the world but on the aw he is average, every piece of evidence i have says don't try to make all at Lingfield if you want to win especially beyond sprint trips. (the exception being Sir Mark Prescott horses) Balding would have been better off using an aw stalwart although the horse may have not been fully fit but thats a different issue. if someone can explain the price of the winner to me i would greatly appreciate it, beaten by felix twice and the slowest horse in the field. the race time was also very slow for the horses contesting it, overall a very disappointing race and disappointing performances from the jockeys.

I try not to think about it lol .....occasionally you get a race where it kinda stinks and your left scratching your head ......that's racing I guess ....but I dont like it 🤣

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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

I try not to think about it lol .....occasionally you get a race where it kinda stinks and your left scratching your head ......that's racing I guess ....but I dont like it 🤣

The ones where all the top rated don't come in, I feel that's a bit of a compensation when the 5 next races is one is a top 5 one after that. Of course picking the winner from them top 5 is still the hard bit.

Edited by Wildgarden
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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Looks like the wheels have come off Campachoochoo; I will try and trade out at B/E.  A bit annoying that I cancelled a £10 win on Tamaroc Du Mathan at 2.02 in the 1.50 at Kempton; it was trading at 1.79 so I thought it wouldn't be matched.

 

RESULTS UPDATE

I didn't manage to trade out with Campachoochoo so a £3 loss is recorded.  The horse drifted from 4/1 out to 10/1.  I suppose we have to conclude that the market got it right.  I don't mind a horse losing but if it was already known that it was going to run so badly I just wonder why it wasn't withdrawn from the race.  As a two year old it won at Chelmsford by two lengths so it seemed only fair to me that it should have run well on its return to polytrack

Anyway my new balance is now £528.54 (£500 Bank)

I'm trying to do things a bit differently from now on but will centre around betting in races where the assumed live market contenders are at a minimum associated with top Timeform and Racing Post RPR's.  I will look at the graded races first and then the handicaps.  This will inevitably lead to mainly backing favourites but I am determined to get some decent value out of my selections and build up my betting bank.  should be fun if nothing else 🙂  

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