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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL Thoughts, Advanced Tips and Value/Bad bets.


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1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

How predictable. Same happened last year. Clearly the horse is pretty much finished and they know it. Give him his retirement he owes them nothing . Great horse but sadly finished. 

Edited by Villa Chris
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6 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

dont let them put you off your selections is my best advice.

These so called tipping shows and tipsters are getting worse in my opinion.

They give that many different horses, 3 or 4 a race. Its inevitable that some will win!!

Kealey from the Racing Post is a prime example. I often see adverts saying "  such and such a horse, tipped at 7/1 by our top tipster blah blah blah" Forgetting that he had 10 consecutive losers and picks 2 or 3 horses a race.

The best 'tipping' show pre Corona, was the one held by Matt Chapman, featuring the likes of Blake, Codd, Thomas Mullins etc. Good entertainment and some useful snippets.

But now all these tipsters via these skype calls do my head in. 99% pure nonsense. 

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1 hour ago, Wanderlust said:

These so called tipping shows and tipsters are getting worse in my opinion.

They give that many different horses, 3 or 4 a race. Its inevitable that some will win!!

Kealey from the Racing Post is a prime example. I often see adverts saying "  such and such a horse, tipped at 7/1 by our top tipster blah blah blah" Forgetting that he had 10 consecutive losers and picks 2 or 3 horses a race.

The best 'tipping' show pre Corona, was the one held by Matt Chapman, featuring the likes of Blake, Codd, Thomas Mullins etc. Good entertainment and some useful snippets.

But now all these tipsters via these skype calls do my head in. 99% pure nonsense. 

Far too many now. Every man and his dog are doing them. The one you mentioned with chapman etc were great.

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The reason i put it up i and others  used to put the cheltenham preview nights onto a thread to watch each year  i enjoy   watching them doesn't mean i'm going to follow there tips indeed most the talk is non handicaps which i very raely bet in but enjoy the different views of people and enjoy watching those big  races. Have been to a preview nights in the past Gordon Elliott never really give much away  Winstanley was  entertaing  but a bit over the top Richard Hollis give good insight to some of the big handicaps. That just about sums  previews nights up a fun night out  where you hear a lot of nothing  but get odd snippet of useful information!

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4 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

These so called tipping shows and tipsters are getting worse in my opinion.

They give that many different horses, 3 or 4 a race. Its inevitable that some will win!!

Kealey from the Racing Post is a prime example. I often see adverts saying "  such and such a horse, tipped at 7/1 by our top tipster blah blah blah" Forgetting that he had 10 consecutive losers and picks 2 or 3 horses a race.

The best 'tipping' show pre Corona, was the one held by Matt Chapman, featuring the likes of Blake, Codd, Thomas Mullins etc. Good entertainment and some useful snippets.

But now all these tipsters via these skype calls do my head in. 99% pure nonsense. 

All probably sponsored by certain bookmakers to help fill their satchels .

Cheltenham is great , but it's now becoming over hyped year in year out the be all & end all because of the bookies , the amount of £ they make over 4 days it's like Xmas for them !

I've asked one of my mates what he's backed today , would have been easier asking what he hadn't , you don't have to have a bet in each race , rather like going racing on a 7 race card I probably only have 4 bets over 3 races , then again , I'm probably weird or sensible ?

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52 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Ted I had to add Vintage Clouds this morning . Good course form and he usually runs very well off 143 or around that mark . Be surprised if he won but 20/1 7 places that’s where it’s at for me. The ground isn’t too soft for him either. 

Yip last 2 wins came at a mark off 143 at around this trip i've gone in again @22/1 e/w 7place your probably right as in more chance of a place than win it but not without a chance. If  it dirfts more i may have another wee bit on e/w 7 places!

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For me. The whole point of betting is my judgement against the judgements of others, i watch racing all year, i do speed figures to see if they back up my thoughts on what i have seen. its my hobby and i make money from my hobby. One of the biggest barriers to me making money from my judgements is outside influences, some influences are good most are just pure lazy bandwaggoning and sucking up to hype, if you dont know your subject then it is my opinion there is no point in betting because you will lose long term. these so called experts/previews always seem to produce consensus between them, they have very little variation and generally revolve around the fav. rather than watch them i spend my time watching relevant races it is far more productive. The best tool by far we have as punters is now youtube.

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5 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Good choice although I would probably pick SP with the Sky offer as they usually offer rubbish prices.

Yes he went off 28/1 but it was a last minute bet for me this morning when lay in bed just before I got up for work. Couldn’t ignore that 143 mark . I’ll take 20/1 for a last gasp bet. 

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20 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

With the offers sky bet do with extra places not sure if they do sp if bigger odds than what you bet 

That's the catch with this bet, they don't offer BOG. Because they often have poor prices it's often not as good a deal as it looks.

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2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

That's the catch with this bet, they don't offer BOG. Because they often have poor prices it's often not as good a deal as it looks.

Decent if it places but might lose out on a few points if it wins like today. Lost 8 points on the price because of no BOG 

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4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

That's the catch with this bet, they don't offer BOG. Because they often have poor prices it's often not as good a deal as it looks.

 

4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Decent if it places but might lose out on a few points if it wins like today. Lost 8 points on the price because of no BOG 

I always now take SP on these offer races when betting over 12-1 shots and looking more for a place than expecting a win. Just need to click the grey type SP on betting slip next to the price which is highlighted in red (Are they trying to hide it)

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3 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

 

I always now take SP on these offer races when betting over 12-1 shots and looking more for a place than expecting a win. Just need to click the grey type SP on betting slip next to the price which is highlighted in red (Are they trying to hide it)

Found it . Will do that from now on. What about if odds go shorter than what you put the bet on at 

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3 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Found it . Will do that from now on. What about if odds go shorter than what you put the bet on at 

Unfortunately you do then lose out. It is a decision you have to make, if it is well tipped or being well backed you may still want to take the price. 

Had not so sleepy today could of taken 66 or 80 this morning Sp was 150 I believe unfortunately Sky were only 4 places not 5 as I believe WH were. So no no use anyway

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