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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL Thoughts, Advanced Tips and Value/Bad bets.


Zilzalian
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An observation on the gold cup from this quarter, i have never really taken to Frodon, i don't know why, maybe i passed it over too easily in the past, However i listened to John Francome say it was the best jumper he has ever seen, he said this before it won the King George and when it won i kicked myself for not taking note of one of if not the best jump jockeys of all time, i have watched all the vids this week and the more i watched the more i am convinced that if it stays the distance it will be close, last years gold cup was interesting but what struck me was how Santini was catching Al boum photo at the line after having been passed by the winner and others 2 out then had to be switched. so there you have it. Santini and Frodon rfc. Its all about opinions chaps and chappess's.

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6 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

An observation on the gold cup from this quarter, i have never really taken to Frodon, i don't know why, maybe i passed it over too easily in the past, However i listened to John Francome say it was the best jumper he has ever seen, he said this before it won the King George and when it won i kicked myself for not taking note of one of if not the best jump jockeys of all time, i have watched all the vids this week and the more i watched the more i am convinced that if it stays the distance it will be close, last years gold cup was interesting but what struck me was how Santini was catching Al boum photo at the line after having been passed by the winner and others 2 out then had to be switched. so there you have it. Santini and Frodon rfc. Its all about opinions chaps and chappess's.

The thing I like about Frodon is that he seems to find the necessary improvement when needed . If Bryony  Frost can get him into a rhythm he’ll be very dangerous. Got a lot going for him and great ew value . Needs to be front running though or just off the front runner. 

Edited by Villa Chris
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Trainer has tipped up Frodon e/w as his charity bet for Cheltenham but for me i dont think he is good enough to win it and don't think he will get placed   having said that i honestly didn't think he was good enough to win a king george this year and i would be over the moon if he and Bryony won lt what a great story for racing that would be.

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I’ve got Coko Beach top rated for The Ultima. He’s 12/1 and I really like the look of him. The only problem is , he’s Irish trained and they have a very poor record in this race for some reason. He’s well clear on ratings too. Got Remastered second rated at 11/1. He fits a few strong trends. The one I like who was third rated is Storm Control 20/1. He’s won twice at the course. Final decs aren’t until Sunday so time yet for horses to drop out. 

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My ratings for the Ultima 

Coko Beach 9.9 (multiple entries )

Remastered 8.5(multiple entries)

Storm Control 8 (multiple entries )

Just Your Type 7.7(multiple entries)

Aye Right 7.55( one entry)

Aye Right is definitely racing in the Ultima and Richard Johnson has been booked to ride. I expect him to go higher up in the ratings as I think some above him will drop out . He fits a lot of trends. I was worried about his weight but looking back over the years it’s not that uncommon for horses carrying a big weight to win . 

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Silver Streak is currently racing at his highest level ever and looks to have improved at the age of 8 scoring his best RPRs . He also broke the track record at Kempton in October . Should have won at Cheltenham the other month but got badly hampered by the last hurdle being omitted and got his pathway shut on him. Got beat half a length by song for someone that day. Trainer said he wants G/S ground to be at his best and it looks like he’ll get that. Hard task to beat the mares conceding weight, but he’s already beaten two mares this season giving them 7Ibs and beating them both over 6 lengths (Verdana Blue , Epatante). Got a good course record, too. Currently 12/1 and looks decent value. 

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Well I am done now until Tuesday, with my Cheltenham bets.

I have been having bits and pieces on different horses since January. 

I am limited with bookies I can use, being abroard, so I was not able to get NRNB.

I have just gone through what I am holding

Losses incurred on Presenting Percy (Gold Cup) At The Acorn (Kim Muir) Lecales Article ( Ballymore....this actually runs in a Mickey Mouse race today)

But I got Ballyadam 29/2 ( Supreme), Melon 27/2 and Allaho 6/1 ( Ryanair) Santini 12/1 and 14/1 (Gold Cup) Cabot Cliffs 14/1 (Boodles) Tritonic 9/1 (Triumph) Annie Mac 18/1 (Mares Chase)

I took a price on a Kilcruit/ Honeysuckle Double, which would pay less than if I put the bet on today!!

And I got a Melon 27/2 /Burrows Saint 21/1 (National) In an ew double

Plus lots of silly Lucky 15 bets.

Can't wait for Tuesday

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I’m going to have a go at ante post betting for the next festival . Probably start around October/November time. What I will say is that Shiskin will be running in the queen mother champion chase  2022  festival so if you fancy him for that bet now, because if he pisses the arkle he’ll be a’lot shorter for the champion chase . Monkfish will be in the gold cup in 2022 and will shorten again if he pisses his race this festival . You can get some crazy odds of you go in early but obviously there’s big risk. 

Edited by Villa Chris
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38 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I’m going to have a go at ante post betting for the next festival . Probably start around October/November time. What I will say is that Shiskin will be running in the queen mother champion chase  2022  festival so if you fancy him for that bet now, because if he pisses the arkle he’ll be a’lot shorter for the champion chase . Monkfish will be in the gold cup in 2022 and will shorten again if he pisses his race this festival . You can get some crazy odds of you go in early but obviously there’s big risk. 

I think if you really and truly believe that a horse is a freak, then you jump on board and back it every week. Rather than lumping one lot on, just keep putting on a little and often. Because even if it gets beat, you get a great high. If I was a believer in Monkfish, I would start now ( around 7/1) . 

I have only ever done that once, unfortunately to my cost, but so ####### close.

Dancing Brave 1986? Derby. I had started backing this thing at 6/1, almost every week. It was into a touch over evens about 2-3 weeks before the off, when it got I think a small problem with its foot ( if memory serves, cant remember exactly) I know it drifted out to 5/2-3/1 and me and my mate just kept lumping on, whenever we had any spare dosh. By the time post time came along we had thousands on it, accumulate over several months.

I will never forgive Greville Starkey for the absolute Shy### ride he gave it. Fast finishing second.

WE made some of it back in The Arc, but still ended up losing on probably the best horse I have ever seen

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2 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

I think if you really and truly believe that a horse is a freak, then you jump on board and back it every week. Rather than lumping one lot on, just keep putting on a little and often. Because even if it gets beat, you get a great high. If I was a believer in Monkfish, I would start now ( around 7/1) . 

I have only ever done that once, unfortunately to my cost, but so ####### close.

Dancing Brave 1986? Derby. I had started backing this thing at 6/1, almost every week. It was into a touch over evens about 2-3 weeks before the off, when it got I think a small problem with its foot ( if memory serves, cant remember exactly) I know it drifted out to 5/2-3/1 and me and my mate just kept lumping on, whenever we had any spare dosh. By the time post time came along we had thousands on it, accumulate over several months.

I will never forgive Greville Starkey for the absolute Shy### ride he gave it. Fast finishing second.

WE made some of it back in The Arc, but still ended up losing on probably the best horse I have ever seen

talking of anti post, watched earth summit win the welsh national at xmas, checked betting 33/1 for GN backed it every week at all prices from 33/1 to 10/1 told everyone to back it, fortunately it pissed down the week of GN so it was a shoe in.

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50 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

talking of anti post, watched earth summit win the welsh national at xmas, checked betting 33/1 for GN backed it every week at all prices from 33/1 to 10/1 told everyone to back it, fortunately it pissed down the week of GN so it was a shoe in.

Nice!!

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39 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

One of the things that is essential to remember about the Cheltenham festival is that the best form guide is actually the Cheltenham festival, last year for this year this year for next year.

Very True.

I got my TimeForm package with the results/analysis/comment on every Cheltenham Festival 2020 race.

Thats the weekend taken care of!!

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5 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

Very True.

I got my TimeForm package with the results/analysis/comment on every Cheltenham Festival 2020 race.

Thats the weekend taken care of!!

I prefer you tube to timeform its cheaper lol

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On 2/23/2021 at 6:59 PM, Striker said:

Stayers Hurdle-Thyme Hill

Should be unbeaten this season, my banker of the week

Currently 4-1 with Bet 365 or 7-2 NRNB

Non Runner

Is it me or is the Festival looking not the same this year as the day one declarations coming through are disappointing with small select fields compared to previous years

 

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2 hours ago, Striker said:

Non Runner

Is it me or is the Festival looking not the same this year as the day one declarations coming through are disappointing with small select fields compared to previous years

 

With 48 hour decs I'll generally put my bets on today but after trawling through since 11 I only fancy a couple on day 1 & with ante post only Champagne Platinum in the Pertemps ( only entry ) & Al Boum Photo in Gold Cup , think both have been laid out a long time ago for their races .

I'll probably have a maximum of 10 bets over the 4 days 3 or 4 win bets & 6 or 7 each ways where the favourite looks worth opposing . 

Edited by calva decoy
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Every man and his dog has got a million different tips for Cheltenham.

However I just watched Dan Skelton get interviewed. The old adage of Trainers make the worst tippers is normally not far out, but for me whenever Dan or Harry give their opinion, I do give it some weight.

He was asked of all his horses at Cheltenham, which one does he think can outrun its odds?

His reply was Elle Est Belle @ 25/1 for the bumper

But he added that the one horse that he was happiest with and was improving by the day...Third Time Lucki in the County.

Don't shoot the messenger, just passing on what he said!!

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has anyone considered a top jockey bet this year   William Hill website offering currently the following

Harry Skelton does look a decent price 33/1
Nico De Boinville also looks tempting at 14/1

Paul Townend is 2/5F on there with Jack Kennedy 2nd fav at 9/2

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4 minutes ago, ipswich45 said:

has anyone considered a top jockey bet this year   William Hill website offering currently the following

Harry Skelton does look a decent price 33/1
Nico De Boinville also looks tempting at 14/1

Paul Townend is 2/5F on there with Jack Kennedy 2nd fav at 9/2

I won't bet on top jock. If I had to, I would go 10/1 Rachel Blackmore

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On 3/12/2021 at 8:32 AM, Wanderlust said:

I think if you really and truly believe that a horse is a freak, then you jump on board and back it every week. Rather than lumping one lot on, just keep putting on a little and often. Because even if it gets beat, you get a great high. If I was a believer in Monkfish, I would start now ( around 7/1) . 

I have only ever done that once, unfortunately to my cost, but so ####### close.

Dancing Brave 1986? Derby. I had started backing this thing at 6/1, almost every week. It was into a touch over evens about 2-3 weeks before the off, when it got I think a small problem with its foot ( if memory serves, cant remember exactly) I know it drifted out to 5/2-3/1 and me and my mate just kept lumping on, whenever we had any spare dosh. By the time post time came along we had thousands on it, accumulate over several months.

I will never forgive Greville Starkey for the absolute Shy### ride he gave it. Fast finishing second.

WE made some of it back in The Arc, but still ended up losing on probably the best horse I have ever seen

Can’t agree more. Dancing Brave was fantastic. It was the Worst ride of any jockey in 50+ years of watching racing. Should have won by 10 lengths.

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5 minutes ago, PercyP said:

Can’t agree more. Dancing Brave was fantastic. It was the Worst ride of any jockey in 50+ years of watching racing. Should have won by 10 lengths.

Thats the polite way of putting it.

Pat Eddery showed the world what type of machine DB was by breezing through in the Arc

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hi all have put some bigger prices in the 19 way to win in betting strategy under 900workbook 

but i think now that the arkle has cut up i gone big on shishkin and elimay mares chase tues and friday 

2.93 PP that's for me at Cheltenham let the battle begin good luck to all your bets and be safe  to all the horses and jockeys

come back safe all to fight another day   🤞

 

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Posted (edited)

Well, i'm going to stick my neck out and say there are going to be some very long faces from people backing short prices. I base this purely on the going and field sizes (bigger fields stronger pace favours form, smaller fields puts a few more confounding variables in there) Previous comments on this thread by me and one other suggest Not so Sleepy as a great ew bet  66/1 is huge by my book and many will say it will fall blah blah, I will say so will some favs, remember annie power? just one amongst many.

Edited by Zilzalian
misspell
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