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Tennis Tips - March 15 - March 21


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19 minutes ago, Torque said:

There's no need to apologize @DrO the information was useful regardless of the result. Also, there's no doubt you provided it in good faith. You can have all the info, place a bet that's a good bet and still see it lose. That's the way it goes sometimes.

and welcome back! 🍻

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Ann Li to win the WTA Monterrey at 10.00 with bet365 I have been following Ann Li for a long time. She is one of the most improved players during the last year and she will be soon in the top 20.

Krajinovic was in lockdown in Doha until last night. Last five days he even couldn't leave his room. So,no practice of whatsoever. He even joined a show on Serbian television via Zoom,complaining abou

Sherif couldn't build on winning the opening set against Davis and Rodionova got ahead in the second set against Zvonareva but couldn't hold on. Anyway, it's impossible to win them all and today is an

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Don't see anything for tomorrow yet, though I'm somewhat tempted by Paire to win a set at a massive price.

Paire has spent the last 3 weeks collecting cheques in South America. Don't put your money on that lazy guy..

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@CzechPunter By the way, IMO Tsitsipas threw the last 2 sets against Herbert and that means he is 100% focused on winning this tournament. Look for Paire's last declarations, maybe he has said something. Personally, I will never put money on that guy, no matter how the odds are. If there's something that I really hate is betting on a player and then see that player putting no effort on a match..

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Dart to beat Kuzmova at 2.00 with Pinnacle

Dart has won today against Watson (6-4, 7-6) while Kuzmova has won against Dolehide (6-3, 6-1). Kuzmova was on a 9 losing streak and all those loses were in straight sets. Dart's last results aren't good either but she has pulled out from the tournament the current champion and she destroyed Errani in her first match of the qualy (6-0, 6-2).

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Paolini to beat Schmiedlova at 2.60 with William Hill

Paolini leads the h2h 3-0. Shenzhen 2017 (6-3, 6-4), Budapest 2018 (6-2, 6-2) and Praha 2018 (6-4, 6-1). I have seen Schmiedlova against Boulter (6-4, 6-0) and the result did not reflect how the match really was. Boulter wasted 2 BP when the 1st set was 4-4. If she had converted them, I'm almost sure she would have won the set and probably the match. Paolini has won against Hibino in her 1st match here and she did quite well in the australian season. In the Gippsland Trophy she won against Marino and Qiang Wang, and she took a set from Muchova. In the AO she was destroyed by Karolina Pliskova (6-0, 6-2). In Adelaide she beat Muhammad and Sharma and lost against Gauff in a 3 set match.

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Sara Sorribes Tormo to beat Kaja Juvan at 1.80 with Pinnacle

I don't usually like betting on players that are coming off tournament victories, but Tormo has already managed to come back against Tsurenko here, which I though was impressive. I rate Juvan somewhat below Tsurenko in most respects and she struggled in her last match a little bit, as @darko08 correctly predicted.

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Dubai ATP. Khachanov to beat Chardy @1.60 Unibet.

I expect a tight match with Chardy being in a good form this year.

However, there are a few reasons why I think Khachanov should nail this:

  • There are points to be defended from the last year's quarters. So, I think motivation is clear.
  • Chardy is 34 years old and he already played 2 3-setters.
  • The H2H is 1-0 for Khachanov so he should come with a small morale boost.
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Rublev (-3,5 Games) to beat Fritz at 1.72 with bet365

Nothing much to say. Rublev is one of the most in form players right now. Fritz could have lost against Basilashvili while Rublev played a great match against Ruusuvuori (6-4, 6-4). I think the difference is now really big and I expect Rublev to win this in straight sets.

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Alexis Galarneau to beat Donald Young at 1.65 with bet365 

I've watched Galarneau's last couple of matches. I have to say that I'm impressed at how well he's been playing. The young Canadian possesses many weapons in his arsenal, contrary to his opponent, DY, whose skills are very limited. His ranking is #325 in the world. He reached his career high (#38) almost a decade ago. Their h2h is 1-0 in favor of Galarneau (3-6, 6-3, 6-0). DY got bageled in the deciding set as you can see (on outdoor Hard). 

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Gasparyan to beat Siniakova at 2.20 with bet365

I saw Gasparyan against Mladenovic (6-7, 6-1, 6-1) and she really impressed me. She played really well and I don't know what makes Siniakova the favorite player here. As I said several times before, Siniakova is not playing well since a long time. She has won against Flipkens (6-1, 6-2) in her first match here. I'm not impressed by this result cause Flipkens played her 1st match on singles since the AO (she had to deal with an ankle inury there). Gasparyan plays home and she has a better record on this surface. Besides, she played a incredible match against Mladenovic so I would say Gasparyan should be the favorite player here, not Siniakova.

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Margarita Gasparyan to beat Katerina Siniakova at 2.20 with William Hill

I also have no idea what makes Siniakova the favorite in this one. She's been a mess for quite some time now and the win against Flipkens hardly changes things this much. Seconding @darko08 here. Although I'd like to see my compatriot win, there's no way she should be the fav.

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Rublev (-1,5 Sets) to beat Fucsovics at 1.65 with Pinnacle
Rublev to win the ATP Dubai at 2.25 with bet365

I repeat with Rublev. These players met for the first time this year in the Final of Rotterdam and Rublev won it in 2 sets (7-6, 6-4). Fucsovics played the qualy so he played 7 consecutive matches there. 2 days after playing the Final in Rotterdam he went to Doha and played 2 more matches there, against Lajovic (7-6, 6-3) and Harris (4-6, 7-6, 6-2), and then he retired when he had to play the QFs against Rublev. He has had 4 days for resting but the problem is that he has played 3 long matches here, against Pospisil (2-6, 7-5, 6-4), Carreño (6-7, 6-3, 6-2) and Lajovic (6-1, 4-6, 6-4) so Rublev will be more fresh for this match. After winning in Rotterdam Rublev only played 1 match in Doha and he has won easily his 2 matches here in straight sets. I also add Rublev to win the whole tournament cause I don't see any player there who can beat him if he plays as he has been doing this year. He only has lost 2 matches this year. The first one was against Medvedev in the AO and the other one was against RBA in Doha just after Rublev won the ATP Rotterdam...

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My last bet for this week, and let's see if the long term bets are won

Sorribes (-3,5 Games) to beat Schmiedlova at 1.83 with bet365

Sorribes won in Guadalajara the last week and she only dropped one set. Fortunately for her, Juvan retired due to an injury and that gives her an extra day for resting after winning against Tsurenko (5-7, 6-2, 6-4). Schmiedlova lost in her 3rd match in Guadalajara against Bouzkova (6-4, 6-2), a player who Sorribes beat in 2 sets in the SFs (6-3, 7-6). Here, Schmiedlova has beat Boulter in 2 sets and Paolini in 3 sets. They played once before (2019) and Sorribes won in 2 sets (6-4, 6-0). Sorribes has been playing really solid and she has beat better players recently and besides, Juvan's retirement favors her..

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I wouldn't bet on such short odds in the doubles without at least some info.

Yosuke Watanuki to beat Aleksandar Kovacevic at 1.57 with Bet365

Going for this late one myself. Saw Watanuki against Catarina and he was pretty decent, while Kovacevic hasn't done much so far. Watanuki is a decent prospect, bordering on the top 150 even imo. He also made the finals in this even last year.

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Unfortunately, watching Watanuki in this one was rather painful.

Sara Sorribes Tormo (-3.5) to beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova at 1.83 with Bet365

Couldn't find anything better, but perhaps Acapulco will throw something up overnight. Anyway, I second @darko08 for another WTA pick. I backed Tormo to beat Juvan, but that match didn't happen. Somewhat disappointed, but it means that Tormo now has less fatigue to be worried about. With her playing style and form, she should draw out an error after error from AKS.

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has anyone watched Kuznetsova? she is not that young, playing against a young player which has several wins in a row.

 

thinking to take Cristian @3.2 as a pure bet against Kuznetsova, however Kuz is playing at home and I kind of remember past years always rumors about strange results in St Peterbough with games involving local players like her and Davydenko.

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1 hour ago, 888888 said:

has anyone watched Kuznetsova? she is not that young, playing against a young player which has several wins in a row.

 

thinking to take Cristian @3.2 as a pure bet against Kuznetsova, however Kuz is playing at home and I kind of remember past years always rumors about strange results in St Peterbough with games involving local players like her and Davydenko.

I saw a little part of the Cristian-Ostapenko match. It's not the first time I saw her, I already have seen her before on ITF matches and she's a decent aggressive baseliner with a really good game on indoors. But the players she has beat are inconsistent. Well.., Lapko retired at the beginning of the 3rd set so we can't say she beat her. It's not the same playing against players who send you flat balls than doing agaisnt a player that will vary the spin, height and pace of the balls, let's see how Cristian will deal with that.. Her best ranking ever is 157 and this has been her best result ever on a wta event so let's see also how she deal with pressure. IMO Kuznetsova should win this match if nothing strange happens, but I wouldn't bet my house on that either...

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I've been confidently taking Fernandez and Ann Li in all of my multiples throughout WTA Monterrey (every round), and unsurprisingly I will be going for them again - vs. Kuzmova and Zheng - respectively. 

Fernandez has impressed me so much and without looking I imagine she must be the clear tournament favorite.

Li plays a very fast style but has a really solid game and is on a great run since October - her only defeat in 14 came against Sabalenka at the AO. I can't see her losing to Saisai.

I'm tempted to include Sorribes Tormo considering the fact she's played a match less and that she drummed Schmiedlova in 2019 (6-4, 6-0) - but I haven't watched any of her Monterrey matches. That being said, I know what to expect from her. 

Li - 1.44 (B365)

Fernandez - 1.22 (B365)

The Double - 1.76

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Kasatkina (-2,5 Games) to beat Kuznetsova at 1.82 with Pinnacle

Looks like Kasatkina is returning to her glory days. She won the Philipp Island Trophy 1 month ago (Boulter, Gracheva, Pavlyuchenkova, Martic, Collins and Bouzkova) and now she has beat really good players here (Tauson, Sasnovich and Kudermetova). Kuznetsova's way to the SFs has been easier (Xinyu Wang and Cristian) but she has dropped a set against Cristian. She is a great player but she's also well known for her massive chokes and yesterday we saw one of them against Cristian (she was leading the TB of the 1st set 5-2 but then she lost 5 consecutive points). Kasatkina has covered this line against Tauson and Kudermetova. Against Sasnovich she did not, but only for 1 game. Kuznetsova still hasn't won more than 2 matches in any of the tournaments she has played this year (5-4) while Kasatkina has won 13 of the last 17 matches she has played.

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Matthias Bachinger (+4.5) to beat Benjamin Bonzi at 1.72 with Bet365

Bonzi is the better player and there's no doubt that he's the favorite to beat Bachinger, who's been a bit shaky over the last couple of months. He seems to have found some form here, though, and he's been solid ever since he lost against Jaziri in the qualifying to Biella 3. Now, we're in Biella 5 and he's on a run, definitely capable of covering this line given his good serve and the fast conditions. It's worth noting that Bonzi hasn't covered this handicap in his three wins here, against Rodionov, Kamke and Bourgue. 

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7 hours ago, darko08 said:

Kasatkina (-2,5 Games) to beat Kuznetsova at 1.82 with Pinnacle

Looks like Kasatkina is returning to her glory days. She won the Philipp Island Trophy 1 month ago (Boulter, Gracheva, Pavlyuchenkova, Martic, Collins and Bouzkova) and now she has beat really good players here (Tauson, Sasnovich and Kudermetova). Kuznetsova's way to the SFs has been easier (Xinyu Wang and Cristian) but she has dropped a set against Cristian. She is a great player but she's also well known for her massive chokes and yesterday we saw one of them against Cristian (she was leading the TB of the 1st set 5-2 but then she lost 5 consecutive points). Kasatkina has covered this line against Tauson and Kudermetova. Against Sasnovich she did not, but only for 1 game. Kuznetsova still hasn't won more than 2 matches in any of the tournaments she has played this year (5-4) while Kasatkina has won 13 of the last 17 matches she has played.

I wonder how this line was paid after Kasatkina lost the 1st set 6-1 

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