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Tennis Tips - February 22 - February 28


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40 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Jil Teichman to beat (-1.5 sets) Anastasia Sevastova at 2.55 with Unibet

If I remember correctly Sevastova has been in decline for some time now and doesn't seem to get back to where she once was. She will be on the way down until she eventually wins a tournament and goes on a long winning streak. She isn't there now though so I feel more comfortable picking a player like Jil who seldom loses matches when on a run to an eventual semi. Teichman is for me a player on the rise while as mentioned Sevastova is on the way down. So I pick the favourite to win this in straight sets. Same thing happened to Sevastova when she played Alison Riske in the Mallorca final (her latest final). Riske won easily in two and after that Sevastova hasn't been able to replicate her best form or highest ranking.

unsure if you've watched Seva recently but she's been reasonably impressive of late. I would leave this one. 

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34 minutes ago, Torque said:

Martic couldn't get it done for me despite taking the first set and Inglis was a blowout as expected, but I'll try again with another player who is too big a price in my book and that's Uchiyama. He plays Kwon Soonwoo who's a decent player who started to emerge last year before lockdown, but like Gauff he isn't the most consistent despite stringing a few wins together ahead of this match. For his part, Uchiyama is also inconsistent but is also a decent enough player which is reflected in his ranking. He's played Kwon Soonwoo before and although he's never won, the matches have been close. This is a match where both players are of a similar rank, both are inconsistent and neither player has dominated in previous meetings and so Uchiyama is preferred based on the odds.

10pts Uchiyama to beat Kwon Soonwoo @ 3.50 Bet365

Kwon is actually quite consistent vs the weaker players on hard courts FYI. The scoring site I use actually have the hard court tournament he's just won listened under clay in error, so looks like he's lost a bunch of matches lately,but in reality he's won his last 6 on hard - defeating the likes of Museti, Maden and Donstkoy, among others.

My prediction is Kwon 2-0.

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56 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:

Kwon is actually quite consistent vs the weaker players on hard courts FYI. The scoring site I use actually have the hard court tournament he's just won listened under clay in error, so looks like he's lost a bunch of matches lately,but in reality he's won his last 6 on hard - defeating the likes of Museti, Maden and Donstkoy, among others.

My prediction is Kwon 2-0.

I'm aware of that. I still say he's inconsistent overall and I'm certainly happier backing Uchiyama at 3.50 than Kwon at circa 1.30. Based on previous meetings, I'd be very wary of backing Kwon to win in straight sets, but if that is your bet then I'll be hoping either for a Uchiyama win or Kwon to win without dropping a set.

Edited by Torque
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Albert Ramos-Vinolas to beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry at 1.73 with William Hill

Heading to Cordoba once again, this time for Albert Ramos. I liked his performance against Fritz down under, he could've easily won that match even despite the conditions being against him. His form has now translated into a good first win on clay and I think he can take it further. I watched a bit of Etcheverry in the qualifying and he seemed alright but without being able to step it up. He'll need to step it up if he's to succeed here and I'm not sure he can.

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Gauff vs Bencic

I am going to keep this simple because I do not want my chain of thoughts to be derailed by trying to think of a reason for this pick. This pick is for those who have been on the journey of this tournament from the start and who should be thinking like me here. Bencic to win here large. Gauff has already played four 3 setters in a row. I dare her a win here. Large stakes recommended. 9/10

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4 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Gauff vs Bencic

I am going to keep this simple because I do not want my chain of thoughts to be derailed by trying to think of a reason for this pick. This pick is for those who have been on the journey of this tournament from the start and who should be thinking like me here. Bencic to win here large. Gauff has already played four 3 setters in a row. I dare her a win here. Large stakes recommended. 9/10

I totally agree here . Bencic has been playing real good and has yet to drop a set.  IMO Gauff shouldn’t have won yesterday I think it was more of a meltdown from Rogers even up a break on the second set until she went gassed out.  I know Gauff is 16 but so many minutes and sets played will cost her. Not sure if her father is the right way for her to continue and I’m sure good things we can expect from her on the future but I believe this is the end of the road on this tournament.

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Yeah, that was lucky no doubt.

Egor Gerasimov to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 2.20 with William Hill

Not sure what makes ADF the favorite here. He played decent against Hurkacz yesterday, but he also rolled his ankle and you never know how that will feel the next day. Also, it felt to me that the match was more about Hurkacz not having any sort of consistency. He was 3-1 up i the first and suddenly turned bad. I saw Gerasimov against Murray and I thought he was more than decent, transferred his Australian form to Montpellier nicely with good hitting.

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19 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Gauff vs Bencic

I am going to keep this simple because I do not want my chain of thoughts to be derailed by trying to think of a reason for this pick. This pick is for those who have been on the journey of this tournament from the start and who should be thinking like me here. Bencic to win here large. Gauff has already played four 3 setters in a row. I dare her a win here. Large stakes recommended. 9/10

Congrats for winning your large bet!

:cheers

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8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, that was lucky no doubt.

Egor Gerasimov to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 2.20 with William Hill

Not sure what makes ADF the favorite here. He played decent against Hurkacz yesterday, but he also rolled his ankle and you never know how that will feel the next day. Also, it felt to me that the match was more about Hurkacz not having any sort of consistency. He was 3-1 up i the first and suddenly turned bad. I saw Gerasimov against Murray and I thought he was more than decent, transferred his Australian form to Montpellier nicely with good hitting.

No it was not lucky that Ramos won and Gerasimov deserved to win. Only good betting from you in the end.

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Egor Gerasimov to beat David Goffin at 2.43 with Unibet

I'll take Gerasimov again, he was good against Fokina and has more than enough power to blow Goffin off the court. He did that last year and Goffin isn't the player he once was anymore. The win over Sonego should give him belief, but he seems like a bad favorite to me anyway. Gerasimov has plenty of weapons for these conditions and I don't see why he can't make another upset happen.

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cerundulo beating monteiro in cordoba and schwartzman losing to ramos... Glad I smelled out that these matches might have a weird outcome and didn't bet anything. South America tourneys on clay always seem to have weird results in them. Monteiro lost to a guy with 0 weapons and schwartzmann lost to a past prime ramos after looking at his best in his match before this one..

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Yeah, plenty of strange things going on this week. You can perhaps explain them by some players saving themselves, but at this stage of the event it makes little sense honestly. Cilic not winning today wasn't too surprising, though. I was surprised to see him almost evens against Kwon, but his performances are still too shabby. Don't think he'll rise again either.

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12 hours ago, Teodore said:

Over 3.2 on Bencic against Świątek ?!

Ok Świątek play very well, Bencic after hard match but I see domek value on Bencic.

 

Ps. #jazdaIga

This is the fourth or the fifth bet against Swiatek that I have seen here in the last 2 tournaments. She has won this tournament without dropping a single set as she did in RG. None of the players she has played against has won more than 4 games on all those sets. There's a reason why Swiatek is priced that low on all these matches by the bookies. Bookies don't gift anything.

Edited by darko08
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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, plenty of strange things going on this week. You can perhaps explain them by some players saving themselves, but at this stage of the event it makes little sense honestly. Cilic not winning today wasn't too surprising, though. I was surprised to see him almost evens against Kwon, but his performances are still too shabby. Don't think he'll rise again either.

And the bookies have also moved strongly to fade Gerasimov which I find very interesting. This looks like sharp money on Goffin from the odds movement unless Gerasimov is injured or something. Experience from situations like these will normally lead to a Gerasimov win or withdrawal. I left it alone because the opening odds were not right. Good luck anyways.

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Amandine Hesse (+5.5) to beat Clara Tauson at 1.80 with Marathonbet

Tauson is a decent talent, but she's yet to make a big breakthrough and you'd expect one by now honestly. She hasn't moved on from the talent phase anywhere and I don't see her as such a big favorite against Hesse. Hesse has always been a steady player and she can definitely cover this sort of handicap. She covered it even against Zvonareva earlier this season - and Tauson can be seriously hit-or-miss.

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Burel Clara vs Alize Cornet

Burel has won 4 of her last 5 matches compared to Cornet who has lost 3 of her last 5 matches. I can make a case against the quality of players that Burel has beaten so far, but considering that a win is a win and she is a (2001) breed, I feel her form is authentic enough and worthy of notice. On the other side of the net will be Cornet whose form is really bad losing last time out to Birrel easily. Because this will be a local derby I will hate to throw caution to the wind and just declare Burel the winner because I expect Cornet to fight hard at some point. I have always known her to be the sort of dog that you can never take a bone from and get away free. I am believing that bone-chase should take this game over 21.5 total games well into street-fight territory. Burel might just fall over the winning line in the end hopefully. Verdict over 21.5 games

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Cerundolo Vs Ramos

This is a very interesting that I felt I must quickly talk about. I will not waste words here but rather quickly jump to my key points. Cerundolo really looks to be good pedigree on clay. I watched hia match yesterday with Coria and liked what i saw. Ramos gritty and always dogged will be expected to put up a fight. Ramos has now play 3 sets each in his last 4 matches. Cerundolo has played 3 sets in his last three matches. I am going to consider home advantage here especially considering how the south American players always do consistently well at home. I am also going to deduct energy taxes and side with the home player. Finally I will take the 13year age gap into consideration and still favor the home player. It will be hard for Ramos find any consistency especially after that epic of yesterday. I also feel because he is playing a new young player and a lefty like him for that matter, he just might lose very easily. Cerundolo for the win here.

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