Racing Chat - Saturday 6th February

[The Brigadier]

A bumper weekend of racing is in store with the now very much established Dublin Racing Festival taking place at Leopardstown. There’s plenty of rain around in the Dublin area over the next few days and with the ground already soft we are once again looking at very testing conditions.

Closer to home (well for me anyway!) the three turf meetings in Britain will all be run on testing conditions (Sandown are actually inspecting this afternoon so fingers crossed) even Musselburgh who usually can be relied upon to produce a better surface – not this time I’m afraid.

 

SANDOWN 1.15

This to my eyes looks to be between the top two in the handicap in Dolos and Caribbean Boy (although bottom weight Paddy’s Poem could be a player but for being 5lb wrong at the weights). Paul Nicholl’s Dolos has won this the last two seasons, in fact he’s the last horse to beat First Flow when battling on to beat him here a year ago. First Flow is now rated some 26lb higher so that was some performance. He’s had his excuses for his two defeats this season (he didn’t stay last time) and off of just a 1lb higher mark than last year looks the bet here to me although I have every respect for Caribbean Boy who I do know is fancied for the Henderson camp dropping back to the minimum trip. 

DOLOS 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

SANDOWN 1.50

A terrific renewal of the Scilly Isle’s Novices’ Chase with all bar possibly the rag having a claim. We’ve got the Skelton’s Clan Blue dropping down from 3m to today’s trip of 2 ½ m after winning at Kempton over Christmas impressively and Hitman stepping up to 2 1/2m for the first time. Throw in Messire Des Obeaux who won the re-arranged Dipper at Wincanton and the Nicky Henderson’s Coral Cup winner from last March Dame De Compagnie and you’ve got one hell of a contest. It’s a hard one to call but I’ll just side with the very much in form Skelton team and Shan Blue. 

SHAN BLUE 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

SANDOWN 2.20

The Cotswolds Chase has been saved following last weekend’s Cheltenham abandonment and the BHA have been rewarded with a stellar turnout. I’m not sure Bristol De Mai or in fact Santini will be suited by the track (even though the latter did win here last season he was un impressive that day) and with the Tizzard team finally having a winner on Thursday their Native River is also a player here. But all of those aforementioned chasers are carrying 6lb penalties so that may let in Harry Whittington’s star chaser Saint Calvados who is unpenalised here. He has some top chase form at up to 2m 5f chasing home the likes of Min in the Ryanair last March and wasn’t disgraced when 4^th in the King George over Christmas on his first run for 289 days. That was his first try at 3m and although he weakened close home maybe that was down to lack of match practice rather than has stamina ebbing away. This track should suit better than Cheltenham last week and in an open contest I’ll stick with him to get home up the Sandown Hill and take the spoils for Gavin Sheehan who no doubt will be riding him to see the trip out. 

SAINT CALVADOS 1 point win @ 11/2 William Hill

 

SANDOWN 2.55

I’m quite keen on top weight Benator here. I thought he ran a super race on his first start for the best part of two years when staying on to finish third in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham to runaway Irish winner Chatham Street Lad. Given time to get over that and with his sights lowered slightly he has a touch of class about him (was third in the 2109 JLT) and despite his big weight looks sure to go well. Alnadam has to put a poor effort at Kempton over Christmas behind him whilst plenty of others here are on a downward cycle. 

BENATOR 3 points win @ 5/1 William Hill

 

SANDOWN 3.30

Harry Fry’s 7 year old Ask Me Early is very much on the upgrade and despite this being a class higher than his two previous handicap victories he still appears to be at the right end of the handicap to my eyes. Both his wins have come at Chepstow and he’s been shunted up 13lb for those victories. He’s only lightly raced and jockey Sean Bowen knows him well having ridden him on all of his four starts under rules.

Deise Aba is out of form but did win this last year from a good yardstick off of a 2lb lower handicap mark so looks interesting whilst Coo Star Sivola is on a very favourable mark at present but they’ve got it too prove whist Harry Fry’s charge is improving rapidly and he’ll do for me here. 

ASK ME EARLY 2 points win @ 5/2 Paddy Power 

 

MUSSELBURGH 2.05

A wide open renewal of the Scottish County Hurdle with the bookmakers going 5/1 the field here. Nothing really strikes me as a bet though the course and distance form line of Blakeney Point and Voix Du Reve has worked out with Miranda (winner of listed hurdle since) back in 4^th place that day. There shouldn’t be much between them on that run but to be honest I’m happy to sit this race out.

 

MUSSELBURGH 3.45

A real slog now for the Edinburgh National run over 4m 1f on soft ground. There’s quite a few in the contest who have to prove their stamina with one of them Saint Xavier who has yet to race beyond 3m 3 ½ furlongs. Trained by Richard Hobson who does particularly well with his staying chasers he appeals as a horse who may improve the further he goes. I’m happy enough to take a chance on him at a price. Top weight Le Breuil will stay and needs to win this to creep up the handicap and get a rating high enough to get an entry in his main target the Grand National. He should run well. 

SAINT XAVIER 1 point each way @ 9/1 5^th odds 1234 

 

LEOPARDSTOWN 1.35

It’s never great to tip odds on chances but I would rather tip a 4/9 winner than a 33/1 loser and will always look for the horse I feel will win that particular race. So you know what’s coming then don’t you? Chancun Pour Soi held Min in this last year and I’ve no reason to think the result will be any different this year. Notebook is held on course and distance form with Chacun Pour Soi at Christmas and the three rags don’t appeal at all. Simple.

 

LEOPARDSTOWN 3.15

There’s a definite déjà vu feeling here with Chacun Pour Soi taking on Min in the Dublin Chase and now we have last year’s principles Honeysuckle and Sharjah clashing again in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Honeysuckle is a terrific mare who’s unbeaten in 10 career runs including four grade ones which include this race last year and Cheltenham’s Mares Hurdle last March. She never seems to win by far but has a great battling quality which always seems to get here home. Rachael Blackmore knows her so well having been on top for all of her career wins and like last year I can see her beating Sharjah again. Any more rain would be in her favour as she stays so well. Sharjah is her biggest danger and he beat off the other four runners here quite comprehensively at Christmas over track and distance. 

HONEYSUCKLE (below) 2 points win @ 6/4 William Hill 

 

 

WETHERBY 2.30

The re-arranged Cleeve Hill Hurdle looks quite open. Favourite On The Blind Side comes here in excellent form and looks sure to run well for team Henderson. We have five horses switching codes from fences to hurdles in Ballyoptic, Itchy Feet, Ramses De Teillee, Lake View Lad (likely to run at Sandown) and West Approach. Its hard to fancy them although I suppose if Olly Murphy’s Itchy Feet is back to his best he could figure. Main Fact flopped badly at Ascot following a flat and hurdles sequence of 8 wins. That run might have just been one run too many and I’m happy to give him another chance on his favoured soft ground with the firms paying the extra place. And don’t worry if he comes under the pump during the race – that’s what he does! 

MAIN FACT 1 point each way@ 5/1 1/5^th odds 1234 William Hill 

 

[Wildgarden]

1600 Lingfield elhafei Ew 12-1 Ladbrokes

1725 kempton suns up guns up 7-2 bet365

1755 kempton conferie 4-1 will hill and cashel 6-1 Will hill

1930 kempton estraela star ew 17-2 willhill

2000 kempton parikarma 17-2 bet victor and thwoq 12-1 paddy power ew

Edited February 6, 2021 by Wildgarden