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Racing Chat - Thursday 21st January


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Meeting of the day you could argue is Meydan which ill touch up at the bottom

Lingfield
1230 - 11 Percy Prosecco   10/1 Paddy Power
1300 - 4 Space Kid    9/2 Bet365
1330 - 4 Subliminal  9/4 Bet365
1400 - 1 Gulliver   7/2 Bet365
1600 - 1 Storm Melody  4/1 William Hill

Ludlow - Subject to inspection
1340 - 7 Mountain Leopard  4/1 Bet365
1410 - 7 Faustinovick   11/4 William Hill
1510 - 8 Fact Flow  7/1 Paddy Power

Newcastle
1630 - 7 Nine Elms  15/2 Bet365
1730 - 2 Captain Cooper  5/2 Bet365
1800 - 2 Nordic Fire  5/1 Bet365  (Nap)
1830 - 3 Elusive Treat  4/1 William Hill
1930 - 1 El Hombre   4/1 William Hill

Wincanton
1420 - 2 Brinkley    7/2 William Hill
1550 - 4 Nearly Perfect  4/1 Bet365

Pau 
1055 - 3 Feeling Fast  7/2 Bet365
1155 - 8 Hillico  7/1 Bet365
1305 - 6 Polisud   5/1 Bet365

Meydan
1430 - 1 Important Mission  9/2 Paddy Power
1505 - 1 Communique  7/1 Bet365
1615 - 10 Kinross  10/1 Bet365
1650 - 10 Thegreatcollection  13/2 Paddy Power
1800 - 2 Equilateral   3/1 Bet365

Meydan today sees some really decent horses today below are some of the possible highlights
1505 - Communique, Ispolini, Desert Fire
1615 - Bless Him (won last week Newcastle), Lord Glitters, Kinross, Military March
1800 - Equilateral, Caspian Prince, Acclaim The Nation, Dream Today

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12.30 Lingfield

He's been very weak in the market so far but I'm going to take a punt on Nicky Henderson's Fraser Island in the first at Lingfield. He's a 120 rated hurdler running off 73 which is a flat mark he should really be able to exploit. He ran well two starts back over course and distance in blinkers when 3rd beaten 1 & 1/4 lengths off 74. He then ran too bad to be true again over C & D when last of 9 when trying to make the running. This time the blinkers were left off and he wore a visor. Today he runs off 1lb lower, the blinkers return and he drops into Class 5 company from Class 4. Currently 14/1.

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All prices Bet365:

12.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Giga White @ 18/1

1.10 Ludlow - 1pt e/w Frankly Mr Shankly @ 12/1

1.20 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Tommie Beau @ 33/1

1.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Fume @ 8/1

2.10 Ludlow - 1pt e/w The Dubai Way @ 17/2

2.20 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Summer Name @ 8/1

2.30 Lingfield - 2pts win Zooma @ 7/1

3.10 Ludlow - 1pt e/w The Toojumpa @ 14/1

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Database selections below.

These come with a weaith warning no idea how they will perform. All to small stakes win only.

My Systems (2) 1.00 Lingfield 5 Swinton Noon Ladd, Theodore Appleby, M 16/1 ??
My Systems (2) 2.10 Ludlow 1 Enzo DAiry (FR) Deutsch, Charlie Williams, Miss Venetia 5/2 ??
My Systems (2) 2.40 Ludlow 5 Eleanor Bob Deutsch, Charlie Williams, Miss Venetia 16/1 ??
My Systems (2) 2.40 Ludlow 1 Robin Gold (IRE) Andrews, Bridget Skelton, Daniel 7/2 ??
My Systems (2) 2.20 Wincanton 5 Neachells Bridge (IRE) Dunne, R T Mulholland, N P 5/1 ??
My Systems (2) 3.20 Wincanton 5 Kloud Gate (FR) Moore, Jamie Moore, G L 9/1 ??
My Systems (2) 3.50 Wincanton 10 Gleno (IRE) Moore, Joshua Moore, G L 8/1 ??
My Systems (3) 2021 B 3.50 Wincanton 10 Gleno (IRE) Moore, Joshua Moore, G L 8/1 ??
My Systems (7) HRB 4 5.00 Newcastle 1 Jack Of Trades (IRE) Mitchell, Jack Crisford, Simon Evens ??
My Systems (7) HRB 4 6.30 Newcastle 2 Caribbean Sunset (IRE) Mitchell, Jack Crisford, Simon 5/2 ??
My Systems (9) HRB 6 7.30 Newcastle 1 El Hombre Rawlinson, Ali Loughnane, Daniel Mark 11/2 ??

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A few outsiders 

12.30 lingfield percy Prosecco 12/1:wall

13.00 lingfield swinton noon 8/1 3places:nana:nanawins bit sick went out to 33/1 but took ewe so hayho winners a winner

13.30 lingfield fume 17/2:wall

15.00 lingfield spirituoso 35/1 3places:nanaplaced

16.00 lingfield hard solution 16/1:wall

13.10 Ludlow lime drop 30/1 5plac:wall

14.10 Ludlow golden whisky 7/1:nana:nanawinner

14.40 Ludlow Eleanor Bob 15/1:wall

15.10 Ludlow rock on Aussie 18/1:wall

15.40 Ludlow ange des malberaux 20/1:wall

13.20 wincanton the widdow maker 9/1:nanaplaced

13.50 wincanton anywayyoulookatit 12/1:wall

14.20 wincanton jabulani 15/2:wall

14.50 wincanton baignard 12/1:wall

15.50 wincanton one of us 20/1 4places:wall

16.40 Newcastle mo Henry 16/1:wall

17.30 Newcastle royal heart 10/1:wall

18.00 Newcastle strawberryandcream 22/1 4places:wall

19.00 Newcastle lucky lodge 7/1:wall

19.30 Newcastle klopp 10/1:wall

13.30 pau roselane 30/1 4places:wall

14.05 pau get’um grayce 20/1 4places:wall

all bets 50p e/w bet365 

Edited by LEE-GRAYS
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Let's have another go today

1.10 Lud Balleticon £5.45 win at 3.65 = Poss profit of £10.09 & £4.15 win at 5.10 on Calico = poss profit of £11.33 = £9.60 loss if either fails to win.

couldn't find many opportunities when i looked last night.  The alternative was a larger stake on cramped odds selections, so I am hoping that dutching the above will produce at least a £10 profit

 

 

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2 hours ago, DanV89 said:

12.30 Lingfield

He's been very weak in the market so far but I'm going to take a punt on Nicky Henderson's Fraser Island in the first at Lingfield. He's a 120 rated hurdler running off 73 which is a flat mark he should really be able to exploit. He ran well two starts back over course and distance in blinkers when 3rd beaten 1 & 1/4 lengths off 74. He then ran too bad to be true again over C & D when last of 9 when trying to make the running. This time the blinkers were left off and he wore a visor. Today he runs off 1lb lower, the blinkers return and he drops into Class 5 company from Class 4. Currently 14/1.

Ran well for a long way but faded tamely late on. 

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having a go a Meydan today all each-way bets

Desert Doctor @ 14/1 Meydan 14:30 - betfair placed
Away He Goes @ 14/1 Meydan 15:05 - Hills placed
Halimi @ 25/1 Meydan 15:05 = betfair placed
Good Effort @ 13/2 Meydan 15:40 -bet365
Art Du Val @ 25/1 Meydan 16:15 - bet365
Mythical Magic @ 20/1 Meydan 16:15 - bet365
Emblem Storm @ 18/1 Meydan 16:50 - betvictor
Land Of Legends @ 10/1 Meydan 17:25 - bet365 won
Final Song @ 10/1 Meydan 17:25 - bet365
Dream Today @ 12/1 Meydan 18:00 bet365
 

 

Edited by kroni
results
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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Well done with Calico although I still can't back more than 1 horse in a race.

I think that times are tough even with the graded racing.  Look what happened to Malhoob at 4/11 in the 5.30 race at Newcastle, beaten into 3rd over 8 lengths adrift of the winner!  I sometimes have just an insurance bet just to cover stakes on my second choice and try to take all the profit on the first choice.  I reckon up to three horses in a handicap could be covered for either equal profit or just taking profit on the expected winner and a cover bet on the other two.  I don't have a problem with your view about only backing one horse but I'm just trying to score a few points for the home team i.e. me.  What a pity I didn't put Calico as the Nap today instead of the heavily backed Balleticon 9/4 into 5/4.  One day I will make sense of all this stuff. 🙂  

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8 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

A few outsiders 

12.30 lingfield percy Prosecco 12/1:wall

13.00 lingfield swinton noon 8/1 3places:nana:nanawins bit sick went out to 33/1 but took ewe so hayho winners a winner

13.30 lingfield fume 17/2:wall

15.00 lingfield spirituoso 35/1 3places:nanaplaced

16.00 lingfield hard solution 16/1:wall

13.10 Ludlow lime drop 30/1 5plac:wall

14.10 Ludlow golden whisky 7/1:nana:nanawinner

14.40 Ludlow Eleanor Bob 15/1:wall

15.10 Ludlow rock on Aussie 18/1:wall

15.40 Ludlow ange des malberaux 20/1:wall

13.20 wincanton the widdow maker 9/1:nanaplaced

13.50 wincanton anywayyoulookatit 12/1:wall

14.20 wincanton jabulani 15/2:wall

14.50 wincanton baignard 12/1:wall

15.50 wincanton one of us 20/1 4places:wall

16.40 Newcastle mo Henry 16/1:wall

17.30 Newcastle royal heart 10/1:wall

18.00 Newcastle strawberryandcream 22/1 4places:wall

19.00 Newcastle lucky lodge 7/1:wall

19.30 Newcastle klopp 10/1:wall

13.30 pau roselane 30/1 4places:wall

14.05 pau get’um grayce 20/1 4places:wall

all bets 50p e/w bet365 

good start sick about swinton noon but thts the price you pay if you do each way extra

out £22

in £17.58

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That was a lovely win/return.  I only bet with Befair Exchange/Sportsbook and Bet 365.  My stakes are not high enough so as to warrant opening up loads of bookmakers accounts.

The strategy I outlined is just one of the tools available to us punters in an effort to make some money.  Funny enough this was outlined in a paper by Phil Bull back in about 1942 The Mathematics of betting.  Whilst one may not feel it worthwhile for my sort of total stakes of about £10 on a race, consider a member on the Forum who may be playing £100 on either a big handicap on a Saturday or graded race.  It seems sensible to me to make provision for one or two dangers that surely exist

 

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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Let's have another go today

1.10 Lud Balleticon £5.45 win at 3.65 = Poss profit of £10.09 & £4.15 win at 5.10 on Calico = poss profit of £11.33 = £9.60 loss if either fails to win.

couldn't find many opportunities when i looked last night.  The alternative was a larger stake on cramped odds selections, so I am hoping that dutching the above will produce at least a £10 profit

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Fortunately, Calico, my second choice won at 5/1.  Balleticon was backed into 5/4 favourite from a 9/4 price.  Looked like I got value for my money didn't it? But where's the value when a horse gets slammed by 10.5 lengths into 4th place?  Anyway at least i have retrieved a bit of profit now and my balance is no £532.86 (£500 Bank)

4 hours ago, Striker said:

Big drifter and unplaced

What about Owhataniight in the 4.45 at Chelmsford tomorrow, it is favourite atm and the possibilty that Show Me A Sunset could overturn the odds on hotpot in the 5.45 at 7/2?  

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