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Pricing your own race


The Brigadier
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7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

3.10 Market Rasen 

Taste The Fear 7.25

Giovanni Change 7.15

only 8 go to post . I’d struggle to try and get the top two rated beat . I really like top rated and trainer and jockey in form. Second rated trainer is running cold. 
 

Taste The Fear 7/2 

Taste Of Fear wins . Rule 4 applied returned 43.50, 13.50 profit on the day. First day of betting since April I think it is, so I’ll take that. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
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Sorry ...I'm ok thankyou for asking ......had to step away for a while ....combination of no staff at work and the results went crazy bad ....I dont know if was some post covid thing but all racing results were really really bad even the obrien odds on were getting trounced so was time to just take a breather and let it settle down 

Was good for me though .....got together with my bestie and we tried numerous diff formulas over the monthes all loosely based on what we discussed here until 1 started to shine above all the others .....we just kept testing and it just kept giving ....overall its ended up +192.00 to 1pt level stakes (4pts per race  ) during test phase ......I cant post the formula as we are both convinced it's something really special and if it gets out it kinda negates the advantage it gives us but I can post the selections on here as it needs a public outing and further testing .... I havent tested on jumps it's all been on flat so I have no idea if it will even work .....works on hcaps ...non hcaps and all weather on flat so if I can get it to work over jumps and it continues to work as it's worked so far then I really think it's that holy grail formula you find just once a lifetime.....I really think it's that good .......

Little unusual in working.....you back the top 4 rated 1 point each blind ......no need for further messing .....object is to make a small profit so you might have 

A   7/2 

B  4/1 

C 10/1 

D 16/1 

If a wins you'll make 0.5 pt profit overall ..though I sometimes tweak the bets to get slightly more return from the shorter horses but if you do that you lower the return when the inevitable bigger one comes so I'm trying to refrain ..so sometimes not making huge profit but I'd say 1 in 10 one of the bigger priced will romp up shooting you forward .(see below) ...and you only lose 4 on a losing race so not battered .......we have debated backing ew but that is very tenuous .....the beauty of this system is the small profit..high strike rate .....yiu will regularly get 2 or even 3  place sometimes so the ew can sometimes be gold  ....but if the 7/2 wins for a 0.5 pt profit overall....if youd backed ew and he was the only place then you've lost overall so currently I'm at the win only camp.....but I can be  proven wrong in the long run so that's why it needs further testing ......had a go at gold and silver ayr cups at weekend finishing 2nd 5/1 ...and 5th 25/1 ...in other one ...so a loss but given there were 24 runners in each they did pretty well .......

This,was last race I managed to rate on the fly (below)  .....i had doubled the stake to 2pt so a total of 8pts ...4 selections and elladora duly won giving a 22pt profit....that's generally how it works ...you'll have a few losing races then shoot forward .....like I said its loosely based on the point system and criteria discussed here so still fits with the thread 

20210920_093947.thumb.jpg.aff3dbc0d47cfe9448df6a100ce5778f.jpg

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It can prove profitable backing more than 1 in a race, but my preference is to stick to win only rather than each way. It should work out better long term and you are only saving a bit of stake money rather than boosting the bank when winning.

Good luck with this Richard, hope it continues to do well.

I have also been testing something which involved backing 2 in a race, it was profitable but had too many bets for my liking. I have added an extra qualification rule which eliminates some races altogether and in others reduces the 2 down to just 1 selection. It still has plenty of action (can be around 10 bets per day - which won't be for some), but the strike rate is around the 50% mark (so far - early days). It has also been producing good profits at B.O.G. ( around 1pt per bet - not per winning bet). I will start to post the selections IF they continue to do well until the end of the month. Fingers x'd.

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Good to hear from you Richard, the new process seems promising.

My systems generate lots of selections (190 today) and it would not be practical to back them all so I tend to back the 3 shortest each day.

Long term the ROI should be the same whether I back 3 per day or 190 per day. By backing the shorter prices selections the strike rate should be better.

 

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I didnt like the idea of backing so many ....but during testing I noticed how often the winner was blindly in the top 4 or they went really close so I set the rule early on and it just kept winning ......doesnt win every race but as time goes on you'll see it wins a lot .....and any horse can win in top 4 at any price ....and that's the beauty ....you can have 3 losing races and be down -12 ...and then a,25/1 can win the next race .....price with this doesnt matter so even a,50/1 has a really good chance if it qualifys......anyway ...let's get the ball rolling ....I think 2 races tomorrow 

145 good 

Turn on charm 7.9  bet 1.35 13/2 

Hortzadar   7.8  bet 1.15  11/1 

Kettle hill 8.4  bet 1.50 3/1 

Enigmatic   7.0 ....13.0 betfair..  bet   1pt ,( or 10/1 with bookies

Total 4pts 

Normal stake is 1pt on each which gives you a high profit if a big priced wins but if a horse is short priced I sometimes adjust stake to get a bit back then break even as it's more likely to win then adjust other stakes but not for every race 

Edited by richard-westwood
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27 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I didnt like the idea of backing so many ....but during testing I noticed how often the winner was blindly in the top 4 or they went really close so I set the rule early on and it just kept winning ......doesnt win every race but as time goes on you'll see it wins a lot .....and any horse can win in top 4 at any price ....and that's the beauty ....you can have 3 losing races and be down -12 ...and then a,25/1 can win the next race .....price with this doesnt matter so even a,50/1 has a really good chance if it qualifys......anyway ...let's get the ball rolling ....I think 2 races tomorrow 

145 good 

Turn on charm 7.9  bet 1.35 13/2 

Hortzadar   7.8  bet 1.15  11/1 

Kettle hill 8.4  bet 1.50 3/1 

Enigmatic   7.0 ....13.0 betfair..  bet   1pt ,( or 10/1 with bookies

Total 4pts 

Normal stake is 1pt on each which gives you a high profit if a big priced wins but if a horse is short priced I sometimes adjust stake to get a bit back then break even as it's more likely to win then adjust other stakes but not for every race 

Mistake with stakes ....but 5pts is ok ...no big deal 

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12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I didnt like the idea of backing so many ....but during testing I noticed how often the winner was blindly in the top 4 or they went really close so I set the rule early on and it just kept winning ......doesnt win every race but as time goes on you'll see it wins a lot .....and any horse can win in top 4 at any price ....and that's the beauty ....you can have 3 losing races and be down -12 ...and then a,25/1 can win the next race .....price with this doesnt matter so even a,50/1 has a really good chance if it qualifys......anyway ...let's get the ball rolling ....I think 2 races tomorrow 

145 good 

Turn on charm 7.9  bet 1.35 13/2 

Hortzadar   7.8  bet 1.15  11/1 

Kettle hill 8.4  bet 1.50 3/1 

Enigmatic   7.0 ....13.0 betfair..  bet   1pt ,( or 10/1 with bookies

Total 4pts 

Normal stake is 1pt on each which gives you a high profit if a big priced wins but if a horse is short priced I sometimes adjust stake to get a bit back then break even as it's more likely to win then adjust other stakes but not for every race 

sounds like u got my system lol.

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17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I didnt like the idea of backing so many ....but during testing I noticed how often the winner was blindly in the top 4 or they went really close so I set the rule early on and it just kept winning ......doesnt win every race but as time goes on you'll see it wins a lot .....and any horse can win in top 4 at any price ....and that's the beauty ....you can have 3 losing races and be down -12 ...and then a,25/1 can win the next race .....price with this doesnt matter so even a,50/1 has a really good chance if it qualifys......anyway ...let's get the ball rolling ....I think 2 races tomorrow 

145 good 

Turn on charm 7.9  bet 1.35 13/2 

Hortzadar   7.8  bet 1.15  11/1 

Kettle hill 8.4  bet 1.50 3/1 

Enigmatic   7.0 ....13.0 betfair..  bet   1pt ,( or 10/1 with bookies

Total 4pts 

Normal stake is 1pt on each which gives you a high profit if a big priced wins but if a horse is short priced I sometimes adjust stake to get a bit back then break even as it's more likely to win then adjust other stakes but not for every race 

Wow I'm pretty sure they finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th only beaten by one horse. Very unlucky mate but looks like a positive start. 

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On 1/10/2021 at 5:35 PM, richard-westwood said:

Form on ground     ( 15% )

Won on ground    10pts 

Placed on ground 8pts 

Won on near to today's ground I.e good if today's gd/soft       6pts

Placed on near today's ground  4pts 

Ground not close  2pts 

 

Distance form  (20%)

Won dist    10pts 

Placed dist    8pts 

Won within 2f   6pts 

Placed within 2f  4pts 

No form 3f+  2pts 

 

How far back do you go to find out the horses's form on ground and form over the distance?  

 

Thanks!

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5 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

@Barnes1882 Stake actually adds up to 5 points on that race; 4 as usual on the other one.

Yes edited my previous post mate as I saw that but I was confused. Was just strange that each horse wasn't a straight 1pt bet. I get that it was dependant on the odds as to how much was put against each, just didn't spot this initially. 

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Sometimes if the low horse is say 5/2 or 3/1 .7/2 ...a straight 1pt win would only break even or worse so I sometimes adjust the stake to 1.5 on the lower horse to give a 1.5 ..2pt profit .....if the bets are too tight and the prices are too cramped after I've rated I'll skip the race and move on ..

But most of the time it's a straight 1pt win each ....

Edited by richard-westwood
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3 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

How far back do you go to find out the horses's form on ground and form over the distance?  

 

Thanks!

Go back as far as you want ....I go back forever for ground ......distance just use your judgement .....I'd say 2 years is far enough ....if tge horse hasnt run a good race over dist in that time then it's probably not its dist 

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