Villa Chris Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 7 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 3.10 Market Rasen Taste The Fear 7.25 Giovanni Change 7.15 only 8 go to post . I’d struggle to try and get the top two rated beat . I really like top rated and trainer and jockey in form. Second rated trainer is running cold. Taste The Fear 7/2 Taste Of Fear wins . Rule 4 applied returned 43.50, 13.50 profit on the day. First day of betting since April I think it is, so I’ll take that. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Out of 43 races today in the UK and Ireland, 15 were won by those outside the top 3 in the betting. Two of those were 50/1 shots . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 lucky 15 / chairmanoftheboard 3 05 new 27/1 shouldering 4 15 new 11/1 beeno 3 50 pert 18/1 sufi 6 45 bath 14/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 TRIAL LUCKY 31 Bartat 2 20 catt 11/1 Bucks Bin 5 35 bangor 16/1 Ganster 6 35 bangor 25/1 Sinndarella 7 35 bangor 20/1 My Renaissance 8 0 5 bangor 11/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 TRIAL LUCKY 31 ONLY Our littlt pony 3 50 bev 14/1 Capala lass 5 30 bev 25/1 Imphal 4 45 good 50/1 Seneca chief 5 35 newm 12/1 Turbine 3 42 Navan 35/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 How are we all? Still not betting but once the house move is completed which will be soon, I'll be back for a bet now and again when I have the time. What's happened to this thread? Was booming when I finished with different people's systems. vikki37, LEE-GRAYS, MCLARKE and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 hope you're all doing well. hope all goes smoothly with the move, @Barnes1882, busy and tiring but will be worth it x Hotspur88 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 I must admit that whilst I'm still making money with my selections I struggle with trying to price a race, the "non value" selections seem to do better than the "value" selections. @richard-westwoodused to contribute a lot on this thread, I hope he is OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Sorry ...I'm ok thankyou for asking ......had to step away for a while ....combination of no staff at work and the results went crazy bad ....I dont know if was some post covid thing but all racing results were really really bad even the obrien odds on were getting trounced so was time to just take a breather and let it settle down Was good for me though .....got together with my bestie and we tried numerous diff formulas over the monthes all loosely based on what we discussed here until 1 started to shine above all the others .....we just kept testing and it just kept giving ....overall its ended up +192.00 to 1pt level stakes (4pts per race ) during test phase ......I cant post the formula as we are both convinced it's something really special and if it gets out it kinda negates the advantage it gives us but I can post the selections on here as it needs a public outing and further testing .... I havent tested on jumps it's all been on flat so I have no idea if it will even work .....works on hcaps ...non hcaps and all weather on flat so if I can get it to work over jumps and it continues to work as it's worked so far then I really think it's that holy grail formula you find just once a lifetime.....I really think it's that good ....... Little unusual in working.....you back the top 4 rated 1 point each blind ......no need for further messing .....object is to make a small profit so you might have A 7/2 B 4/1 C 10/1 D 16/1 If a wins you'll make 0.5 pt profit overall ..though I sometimes tweak the bets to get slightly more return from the shorter horses but if you do that you lower the return when the inevitable bigger one comes so I'm trying to refrain ..so sometimes not making huge profit but I'd say 1 in 10 one of the bigger priced will romp up shooting you forward .(see below) ...and you only lose 4 on a losing race so not battered .......we have debated backing ew but that is very tenuous .....the beauty of this system is the small profit..high strike rate .....yiu will regularly get 2 or even 3 place sometimes so the ew can sometimes be gold ....but if the 7/2 wins for a 0.5 pt profit overall....if youd backed ew and he was the only place then you've lost overall so currently I'm at the win only camp.....but I can be proven wrong in the long run so that's why it needs further testing ......had a go at gold and silver ayr cups at weekend finishing 2nd 5/1 ...and 5th 25/1 ...in other one ...so a loss but given there were 24 runners in each they did pretty well ....... This,was last race I managed to rate on the fly (below) .....i had doubled the stake to 2pt so a total of 8pts ...4 selections and elladora duly won giving a 22pt profit....that's generally how it works ...you'll have a few losing races then shoot forward .....like I said its loosely based on the point system and criteria discussed here so still fits with the thread BBBC, vikki37, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 It can prove profitable backing more than 1 in a race, but my preference is to stick to win only rather than each way. It should work out better long term and you are only saving a bit of stake money rather than boosting the bank when winning. Good luck with this Richard, hope it continues to do well. I have also been testing something which involved backing 2 in a race, it was profitable but had too many bets for my liking. I have added an extra qualification rule which eliminates some races altogether and in others reduces the 2 down to just 1 selection. It still has plenty of action (can be around 10 bets per day - which won't be for some), but the strike rate is around the 50% mark (so far - early days). It has also been producing good profits at B.O.G. ( around 1pt per bet - not per winning bet). I will start to post the selections IF they continue to do well until the end of the month. Fingers x'd. richard-westwood, vikki37, Hotspur88 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Good to hear from you Richard, the new process seems promising. My systems generate lots of selections (190 today) and it would not be practical to back them all so I tend to back the 3 shortest each day. Long term the ROI should be the same whether I back 3 per day or 190 per day. By backing the shorter prices selections the strike rate should be better. gbettle, Wildgarden, vikki37 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 (edited) I didnt like the idea of backing so many ....but during testing I noticed how often the winner was blindly in the top 4 or they went really close so I set the rule early on and it just kept winning ......doesnt win every race but as time goes on you'll see it wins a lot .....and any horse can win in top 4 at any price ....and that's the beauty ....you can have 3 losing races and be down -12 ...and then a,25/1 can win the next race .....price with this doesnt matter so even a,50/1 has a really good chance if it qualifys......anyway ...let's get the ball rolling ....I think 2 races tomorrow 145 good Turn on charm 7.9 bet 1.35 13/2 Hortzadar 7.8 bet 1.15 11/1 Kettle hill 8.4 bet 1.50 3/1 Enigmatic 7.0 ....13.0 betfair.. bet 1pt ,( or 10/1 with bookies ) Total 4pts Normal stake is 1pt on each which gives you a high profit if a big priced wins but if a horse is short priced I sometimes adjust stake to get a bit back then break even as it's more likely to win then adjust other stakes but not for every race Edited September 21, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Good 3.27 Roseabud 8.4 10/1 bet 1pt Percy's pride 6.2 11/2 bet 1pt Single 6.2 16/1 bet 1pt Golden bugle 8.9 4/1 bet 1pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I didnt like the idea of backing so many ....but during testing I noticed how often the winner was blindly in the top 4 or they went really close so I set the rule early on and it just kept winning ......doesnt win every race but as time goes on you'll see it wins a lot .....and any horse can win in top 4 at any price ....and that's the beauty ....you can have 3 losing races and be down -12 ...and then a,25/1 can win the next race .....price with this doesnt matter so even a,50/1 has a really good chance if it qualifys......anyway ...let's get the ball rolling ....I think 2 races tomorrow 145 good Turn on charm 7.9 bet 1.35 13/2 Hortzadar 7.8 bet 1.15 11/1 Kettle hill 8.4 bet 1.50 3/1 Enigmatic 7.0 ....13.0 betfair.. bet 1pt ,( or 10/1 with bookies ) Total 4pts Normal stake is 1pt on each which gives you a high profit if a big priced wins but if a horse is short priced I sometimes adjust stake to get a bit back then break even as it's more likely to win then adjust other stakes but not for every race Mistake with stakes ....but 5pts is ok ...no big deal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 12 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I didnt like the idea of backing so many ....but during testing I noticed how often the winner was blindly in the top 4 or they went really close so I set the rule early on and it just kept winning ......doesnt win every race but as time goes on you'll see it wins a lot .....and any horse can win in top 4 at any price ....and that's the beauty ....you can have 3 losing races and be down -12 ...and then a,25/1 can win the next race .....price with this doesnt matter so even a,50/1 has a really good chance if it qualifys......anyway ...let's get the ball rolling ....I think 2 races tomorrow 145 good Turn on charm 7.9 bet 1.35 13/2 Hortzadar 7.8 bet 1.15 11/1 Kettle hill 8.4 bet 1.50 3/1 Enigmatic 7.0 ....13.0 betfair.. bet 1pt ,( or 10/1 with bookies ) Total 4pts Normal stake is 1pt on each which gives you a high profit if a big priced wins but if a horse is short priced I sometimes adjust stake to get a bit back then break even as it's more likely to win then adjust other stakes but not for every race sounds like u got my system lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 17 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I didnt like the idea of backing so many ....but during testing I noticed how often the winner was blindly in the top 4 or they went really close so I set the rule early on and it just kept winning ......doesnt win every race but as time goes on you'll see it wins a lot .....and any horse can win in top 4 at any price ....and that's the beauty ....you can have 3 losing races and be down -12 ...and then a,25/1 can win the next race .....price with this doesnt matter so even a,50/1 has a really good chance if it qualifys......anyway ...let's get the ball rolling ....I think 2 races tomorrow 145 good Turn on charm 7.9 bet 1.35 13/2 Hortzadar 7.8 bet 1.15 11/1 Kettle hill 8.4 bet 1.50 3/1 Enigmatic 7.0 ....13.0 betfair.. bet 1pt ,( or 10/1 with bookies ) Total 4pts Normal stake is 1pt on each which gives you a high profit if a big priced wins but if a horse is short priced I sometimes adjust stake to get a bit back then break even as it's more likely to win then adjust other stakes but not for every race Wow I'm pretty sure they finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th only beaten by one horse. Very unlucky mate but looks like a positive start. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said: Wow I'm pretty sure they finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th only beaten by one horse. Very unlucky mate but looks like a positive start. Noooooooo....lol ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 2nd 3rd 4th and 3rd today ....close but no cigar ....but it's the long run that counts .....-9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 2nd 3rd 4th and 3rd today ....close but no cigar ....but it's the long run that counts .....-9.00 Why -9pts mate? Thought it was 4pts per race? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 22 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Mistake with stakes ....but 5pts is ok ...no big deal @Barnes1882 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 5:35 PM, richard-westwood said: Form on ground ( 15% ) Won on ground 10pts Placed on ground 8pts Won on near to today's ground I.e good if today's gd/soft 6pts Placed on near today's ground 4pts Ground not close 2pts Distance form (20%) Won dist 10pts Placed dist 8pts Won within 2f 6pts Placed within 2f 4pts No form 3f+ 2pts How far back do you go to find out the horses's form on ground and form over the distance? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 (edited) 35 minutes ago, harry_rag said: @Barnes1882 Yeah I saw this yesterday cheers but still not sure where the extra 1pt came from? I've just looked back and it's because there are stakes such as 1.35pts etc? Seems a strange method not backing them as a straight 1pt on each @richard-westwood? Edited September 22, 2021 by Barnes1882 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 23 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 145 good Turn on charm 7.9 bet 1.35 13/2 Hortzadar 7.8 bet 1.15 11/1 Kettle hill 8.4 bet 1.50 3/1 Enigmatic 7.0 ....13.0 betfair.. bet 1pt ,( or 10/1 with bookies ) Total 4pts @Barnes1882 Stake actually adds up to 5 points on that race; 4 as usual on the other one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, harry_rag said: @Barnes1882 Stake actually adds up to 5 points on that race; 4 as usual on the other one. Yes edited my previous post mate as I saw that but I was confused. Was just strange that each horse wasn't a straight 1pt bet. I get that it was dependant on the odds as to how much was put against each, just didn't spot this initially. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 (edited) Sometimes if the low horse is say 5/2 or 3/1 .7/2 ...a straight 1pt win would only break even or worse so I sometimes adjust the stake to 1.5 on the lower horse to give a 1.5 ..2pt profit .....if the bets are too tight and the prices are too cramped after I've rated I'll skip the race and move on .. But most of the time it's a straight 1pt win each .... Edited September 22, 2021 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 3 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said: How far back do you go to find out the horses's form on ground and form over the distance? Thanks! Go back as far as you want ....I go back forever for ground ......distance just use your judgement .....I'd say 2 years is far enough ....if tge horse hasnt run a good race over dist in that time then it's probably not its dist alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 No selections tomorrow .....but I'll rate the Cambridgeshire tomorrow night as that's the perfect race for big prices and look at fridays racing Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Cambridgeshire saturday Magical morning 9.4 1pt win 8/1 Uncle Bryn 8.9 1pt win 13/2 Irish admiral 8.1 1pt win 16/1 Ropey guest 7.7 1pt win 66/1 (5th rated is the well fancied chichester 7.5 ...so he can be reserve ) Wildgarden, MCLARKE, gbettle and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 150 newm friday Soft whisper 9.4 1pt win 9/1 Maamora 9.2 1pt win 9/1 Foorat 8.6 1pt win 7/2 Dubai love 7.4 1pt win 8/1 alexcaruso808, Wildgarden, peanut peanut and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 225 newm Forbearance 9.2 0.8pt win 7/1 Sayyida 8.5 0.9pt win 6/1 Golden pass 8.0 0.8pt win 7/1 Albaflora 7.7 1.5 pt win 9/4 Total 4pt Wildgarden, Fellcrawler and alexcaruso808 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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