Wildgarden Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 27 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: He ran well profit is profit great day between us. BBBC, MCLARKE and richard-westwood 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 Quiet day....just one race 6.00 pont Mustaqqbaal 8.5 25/1 Irv 8.5 3/1 James park woods 8.3 Mustaqbaal is having his first run..so unknown but looks well treated on some form so not out of it and huge price ....irv has been showing some good form so should run well ....top 2 2 x 5pt wins LEE-GRAYS, BBBC and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 15 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Quiet day....just one race 6.00 pont Mustaqqbaal 8.5 25/1 Irv 8.5 3/1 James park woods 8.3 Mustaqbaal is having his first run..so unknown but looks well treated on some form so not out of it and huge price ....irv has been showing some good form so should run well ....top 2 2 x 5pt wins id be cutting 2 points off for age 9 years old lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: id be cutting 2 points off for age 9 years old lol Ordinarily I would knock off at least 1pt but his record after a break is 1st 6th 4th and he is very well hcapped currently....has won off 70 and now 64 .....and trainer in winners ....so I just gave him the benefit at that price ....might finish last lol ...but there are a lot of positives ....hes no 25/1 shot for sure Oh and 7lb claimer ....good or bad so hes effectively running off 57 !!! Edited May 28, 2021 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: Ordinarily I would knock off at least 1pt but his record after a break is 1st 6th 4th and he is very well hcapped currently....has won off 70 and now 64 .....and trainer in winners ....so I just gave him the benefit at that price ....might finish last lol ...but there are a lot of positives ....hes no 25/1 shot for sure Oh and 7lb claimer ....good or bad so hes effectively running off 57 !!! yeah u seen the claimer not won yet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: yeah u seen the claimer not won yet! ???that's ok ...irv will win ?? Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 19 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Quiet day....just one race 6.00 pont Mustaqqbaal 8.5 25/1 Irv 8.5 3/1 James park woods 8.3 Mustaqbaal is having his first run..so unknown but looks well treated on some form so not out of it and huge price ....irv has been showing some good form so should run well ....top 2 2 x 5pt wins 2nd ?? Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Bank +40.00 (that's clear profit not bank) 145 hay Bielsa 9.8 5.9 Concierge 9.6 14.0 Capotes dream 9.4 7.0 Cold stare 9.2 10.5 Punch bowl flyer 8.8 Very close,at the top ....but I've just got to trust the ratings so 5pt wins top 2 Wildgarden and BBBC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 345 bev Sibaaq 9.3 5/2 Queens sergeant 8.9 9/1 Gallipoli 8.7 Sibaaq might've difficult to beat if he can continue improvement off bottom weight ....gallipoli would most likely prefer better ground that leaves 2x 5pt wins top 2 BBBC and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 29, 2021 Share Posted May 29, 2021 I have now completed my ratings analysis and initial results look quite encouraging. My approach is to concentrate on those variables that appear to have a significant impact on profitability. I have used AE as the measure of profitability. My analysis suggests that including 5 factors in my rating is the optimal number. I calculate the AE for each of the factors and then calculate the average. Initially I used base data for 2015 to 2018 and tested this on 2019 data. Those horses with an average AE higher than 1.01 generated 1,480 winners from 15,305 runners with a LSP of 409 points at BSP. The AE was 1.06. I then conducted the same exercise on data for 2016 to 2019, testing on 2020 data. Again this was profitable, with 1,152 winners from 11,046 runners with a LSP of 922 points. The AE was again 1.06. I am now using data for 2017 to 2020 to determine my 5 key variables to use for the 2020 season. These 5 variables are not ones that are commonly used which I am ok with because to make money in this game you need to find angles that are not obvious. They are :- Draw in previous race. Whilst this may not seem relevant it could be that a horse may appear to have run badly in a previous race but this could have been due to a poor draw. Horses drawn 1 to 4 in the previous race have an AE of 0.98. Days since last run in previous race. I am struggling to understand the logic of this one, it could be something to do with the bounce effect. Horses that last ran over 100 days ago have an AE of 1.05, horses that had a similar gap between it's last run and it's previous run have an AE of 0.95. SP rank previous race. This appears to have more of an impact than the SP rank in the current race. Draw in current race. This is a common theme in a lot of my flat systems. Horses drawn 1 to 5 have an AE of 0.98. Prize money difference from previous race. Again the logic behind this is difficult. The higher the difference, the better the AE. This may be because punters tend to exclude horses that move up or down significantly in class My main concern at the moment is the high number of qualifiers (80 per day) and the low strike rate (10%). I will look at ways of refining the system to improve the strike rate without reducing the ROI. richard-westwood, gbettle and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 29, 2021 Share Posted May 29, 2021 18 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Bank +40.00 (that's clear profit not bank) 145 hay Bielsa 9.8 5.9 .....2ND Concierge 9.6 14.0 Capotes dream 9.4 7.0 Cold stare 9.2 10.5 ...6th ew Punch bowl flyer 8.8 .....1ST Very close,at the top ....but I've just got to trust the ratings so 5pt wins top 2 Omg bummer 2nd again....punch bowl wins 18/1 urgh Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 29, 2021 Share Posted May 29, 2021 18 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 3.45 bev Sibaaq 9.3 5/2 Queens sergeant 8.9 9/1 I have QUEENS SERGEANT top rated at 2.7 with BROKEN SPEAR my only other one to meet my criteria at 2.3. QUEENS SERGEANT looks a top bet with 6/1 available with BET365. It passes all 5 of my criteria. BROKEN SPEAR fails the 2 draw criteria. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 29, 2021 Share Posted May 29, 2021 19 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 345 bev Sibaaq 9.3 5/2 Queens sergeant 8.9 9/1 Gallipoli 8.7 Sibaaq might've difficult to beat if he can continue improvement off bottom weight ....gallipoli would most likely prefer better ground that leaves 2x 5pt wins top 2 Bank is at 20.00..?.....but that doesnt do it justice as the last 3 have finished 2nd !!.....2nd in this ....they are running really well ....just getting pipped Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 A few races to rate monday 440 red Zetand cup Faylaq 9.3 9/1 Barishnakov 8.9 11.5 betfair Eagle court 8.2 Top 2 ....5pt wins vikki37, Wildgarden and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 I have Eagle Court top rated so I will have a small bet on that one. 18.5 on betfair although I tend to take BSP. richard-westwood and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 250 Leicester Ahdab 9.1 11/4 Declared interest 8.9 7/4 Magnetized 8.9 6.4 betfair Tricky race ....declared interest is a question back on turf ...could be well treated hence fav....but equally many horses are less effective on turf so I'll oppose and stick with proven horses ahdab and magnetized 2x 5pt wins vikki37 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 I have Declared Interest top rated, I kown a lot of people see moving from AW to turf as a bad sign but this is not reflected in the AE figures. I have had a small bet at 85/40 with UNIBET. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG77 Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 3.45 epsom recon mission & get boosting 5.15 epsom soto sizzler & group one power 5.50 epsom lexxington dash & ejtilaab 5 points win on all / top 2 rated horses in selected races BBBC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG77 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 1 00 lingfield fair power @ 7 & belafonte @ 18 1 35 limgfield master the stars @ 7.6 & lawn ranger @ 32 3 50 lingfield follow intello @ 15 & bird for life @ 14.5 7 30 windsor tinto @ 7 & concierge @ 17.5 all on betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG77 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 3 55 thirsk elderbar @ 19 & lasting legacey @ 8 5 10 thirsk true hero @ 11 & sambucca spirit @ 16 5 00 ascot untold story 14 & postilo @ 21 6 10 ascot themaxwecan @ 24 & throne hall @ 8 5 pt win on each + 24 x .5 x doubles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG77 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 44 25 hamilton clay regazzoni @ 7 & perfect soldier @ 13.5 5 00 ascot haqeeqy @ 10 & finest crowd @ 14 6 23 chelmsford irish times @ 12.5 & socru @ 10 7 23 chelmsford margub @ 10 & asad @ 10.5 5 pt win on each + 24 x .5 x doubles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG77 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 3 25 ripon ustath @ 16 & decesion maker @ 8 5 35 ascot kondo island @ 16 .5 & surefire @ 7 6 10 ascot persuasion @ 15 & aldarary @ 7 8 10 lingfield princess animale @ 9 & prince rock @ 14 5 pt win on each + 24 x .5 win doubles Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 (edited) Market Rasen 2.05 Camprond 8.75 4th Mrs Hyde 8.5 Hooper 8.3 6th Hang In There 8.25 2nd Valentino Dancer 7.75 3rd big field and very competitive going by the ratings . I’ve put up the top 5 and I’ll note that Valentino Dancer has a trainer and jockey in red hot form, plus he’s Irish trained ? . Top 4 rated are all proven class wise so very hard to separate . Unsure what the bet is yet as top rated is skinny odds . Might be better going ew on a horse just below him in the ratings . Mrs Hyde the bet 16/1 ew paying 5 . If she places I only get a bit less than if my top rated won so makes sense, and if she wins it’s a nice big priced winner. Edited July 17, 2021 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Market Rasen 2.40 Thats A Given 7.8 Captain Tom Cat 7.75 Solomon Grey 7.65 Fire Away 7.25 Captain Tom Cat will be all the buzz here after winning his last 3 by big distances. He’s gone right up in the weights for that which may leave him vulnerable, but he’s obviously very classy . That’s A Given seems to travel well and wind surgery seems to have helped him. Watched a couple of his races back last night and I’d expect him to travel well throughout the race and try and land a blow near the end. He’s ran over further before so he’s got the stamina for this and this shorter distance won’t be a problem. Nice price too. That’s A Given 11/1 ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 3.10 Market Rasen Taste The Fear 7.25 Giovanni Change 7.15 only 8 go to post . I’d struggle to try and get the top two rated beat . I really like top rated and trainer and jockey in form. Second rated trainer is running cold. Taste The Fear 7/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 How have things been going on here? Has the code been cracked yet Tedthewolf and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 All gone very quiet. The conclusion I've arrived at is that you are better backing your selections if the market agrees. This is the same with my share investments, you are better investing in shares that have been increasing in price rather than shares that have fallen in price, the expression is "don't try and catch a falling knife". Villa Chris, alexcaruso808, gbettle and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 6 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Market Rasen 2.05 Camprond 8.75 4th Mrs Hyde 8.5 Hooper 8.3 6th Hang In There 8.25 2nd Valentino Dancer 7.75 3rd big field and very competitive going by the ratings . I’ve put up the top 5 and I’ll note that Valentino Dancer has a trainer and jockey in red hot form, plus he’s Irish trained ? . Top 4 rated are all proven class wise so very hard to separate . Unsure what the bet is yet as top rated is skinny odds . Might be better going ew on a horse just below him in the ratings . Mrs Hyde the bet 16/1 ew paying 5 . If she places I only get a bit less than if my top rated won so makes sense, and if she wins it’s a nice big priced winner. The handicapper did his job well. The top 6 separated by 1 and a half lengths with most of the others not far behind them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: All gone very quiet. The conclusion I've arrived at is that you are better backing your selections if the market agrees. This is the same with my share investments, you are better investing in shares that have been increasing in price rather than shares that have fallen in price, the expression is "don't try and catch a falling knife". Might be an angle to go at . If top rated is in the first 2-3 in the betting make it a strong selection. If I remember right, and I’m sure you’ll have the figures anyway, but top 3 in betting have an high % of wins, which obviously makes sense. It does away with value aspect though. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 7 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Market Rasen 2.40 Thats A Given 7.8 Captain Tom Cat 7.75 Solomon Grey 7.65 Fire Away 7.25 Captain Tom Cat will be all the buzz here after winning his last 3 by big distances. He’s gone right up in the weights for that which may leave him vulnerable, but he’s obviously very classy . That’s A Given seems to travel well and wind surgery seems to have helped him. Watched a couple of his races back last night and I’d expect him to travel well throughout the race and try and land a blow near the end. He’s ran over further before so he’s got the stamina for this and this shorter distance won’t be a problem. Nice price too. That’s A Given 11/1 ew Not even close with any of these Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.