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Pricing your own race


The Brigadier
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I'm over the moon with the ratings especially daawy ....I'd just like to win ūüė≠ūüė≠ūüė≠ūü§£ūü§£........should have gone ew but hey on another day he would have won .......but it's a good day because I know they dont need messing with now .......all down to luck on the day now¬†

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3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

350 york 

Justsnotherbottle 9.7 12/1

Mulzim  9.2 11/1

Copper knight  8.7 11/2

Pendleton   8.7 4/1   WON

Count Dorsey 8.3 13/2 

Couldn't resist having a go at this classy race ....wide open as youd expect ... but top 2 are overpriced and both are better on soft ground ....interesting race 

2 x10pt wins 

Joint 3rd Rated won

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21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

455 york sat 

Northern express  9.1 7/2 

Maison de york  8.3  17/2 

Darvel  7.8 14/1 

Darvel and northern will relish the soft ground...maison not so much so northern and darvel for me ...10pt wins 

Maison de york wins 

......no luck today but ratings performed well ....fight another day 

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Posted (edited)

Move to final phase .........formula is set ......results are holding......last few races were 

2nd rated finished 2nd 16/1 

1st rated  2nd 4/1 

Joint 2nd rated won 17/2 

4th rated 2nd 25/1 

2nd rated 2nd  2/1 

Top rated  2nd 

Top rated 4th ew 25/1 

2nd rated won 8/1 

1 race unplaced top 3 (4th rated won ) 

So although the winner can come from and frequently does come from the top 4 .....we seem to be edging towards an ew bet on top 2¬† wouldn't have been far off breaking even ( about -6 ) despite it being a very unlucky day .......had the 1st one won 16/1(2nd) or had daawy won 25/1 (4th)....it could have been much diff ... ....work in progress but it seems it would provide a lot of action with less risk ......might be worth test run ...see how it gets on over coming month ūü§Ēūü§Ē

Although .....a 1pt straight win on top 2 rated and or joint would have been 19pts out 18.5 in ...-1.0 with multiple near misses so we could argue blindly backing the top 2 like last time is the way to go ???....food for thought .....if that does show a profit we have a much more stable formula this time so it should be able to perform long term this time hopefully ......maybe we are about to come full circle 

 

Edited by richard-westwood
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Few rules I've noticed .......5f races are a waste of time ....poor start or unlucky in running and the race is over ...too much left to chance .... not sure about 6f yet ...not enough evidence ....yiu have more opportunity to recover from a mistake but ideally 7f to 12f is the best hunting ground .......

Higher class races are far better than say a class 6 .....which makes sense as there is a class rating incorporated...

Also .....ground is important so races need to be left as late as possible as ground changes have huge effects on ratings 

So a few important rules 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Few rules I've noticed .......5f races are a waste of time ....poor start or unlucky in running and the race is over ...too much left to chance .... not sure about 6f yet ...not enough evidence ....yiu have more opportunity to recover from a mistake but ideally 7f to 12f is the best hunting ground .......

Higher class races are far better than say a class 6 .....which makes sense as there is a class rating incorporated...

Also .....ground is important so races need to be left as late as possible as ground changes have huge effects on ratings 

So a few important rules 

yes ive noticed 5f is like a lottery! york today especially

Edited by Wildgarden
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21 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

think u need to forget ur personal thoughts on the ground its already in ratings. we missed two winners today from thinking too much

That's actually true ....some horses have only form on gf and good but still win on soft if top 2 or 3 rated so yes if it's got a high rating due to passing all the other criteria then it can still win regardless ....I've seen that myself about 4 times ......

Anyway .....its time to open the new gold mine ....last one found a few rich veins then collapsed ūü§£ūü§£ūü§£......but weve done our homework so it's time to try again .....or what's the point lol ....

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

That's actually true ....some horses have only form on gf and good but still win on soft if top 2 or 3 rated so yes if it's got a high rating due to passing all the other criteria then it can still win regardless ....I've seen that myself about 4 times ......

Anyway .....its time to open the new gold mine ....last one found a few rich veins then collapsed ūü§£ūü§£ūü§£......but weve done our homework so it's time to try again .....or what's the point lol ....

im backing top 3 on one ratings system and occasionally covering 4 and its average 100 lsp a month so u are getting the right approach. but that is rating 5-6 a day in terms of how many races. what i put on here on racing chat is sometimes the best from ratings or some jockeys and horse combos i like. mark crehan is now hurting me though lol.

Edited by Wildgarden
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I'm going to give it a go ........treat it like my own little gold mine business .....no 5f races .....try and choose higher rated races if possible .......and I think I will avoid the massive hcaps ..I'll rate them ...but unless the prices are good I'll try and keep the percentage against lower .....because if you take 8/1 against 20 runners ....its not such a hot bet....but 16/1 would be ok ....

Gotta give it a go .....I'll keep meticulous records and see whether ew bets would be safer or better at a later date ...say after a month ....but I'll start with 5pt wins top 2 or 3 if joint rated 2nd etc .......and see where it takes us ......no more mine collapses ūüė≠ūüė≠ūüė≠

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Posted (edited)

14 is pretty strong ill be backing the 3 of course. ive cut the rest (i dotn back favs under 3-1 on ratings so clearly that ones decent too) and two not enough data (3 or four races only ran) so possible dangers but long term trends show both not profitable so happy to dismiss them and go with some outsiders. will be seeing what prices are exchange. may cut one if drifts dramatically ( like going 30-1)

Screenshot_20210522-220022.png

Edited by Wildgarden
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6 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I'm going to give it a go ........treat it like my own little gold mine business .....no 5f races .....try and choose higher rated races if possible .......and I think I will avoid the massive hcaps ..I'll rate them ...but unless the prices are good I'll try and keep the percentage against lower .....because if you take 8/1 against 20 runners ....its not such a hot bet....but 16/1 would be ok ....

Gotta give it a go .....I'll keep meticulous records and see whether ew bets would be safer or better at a later date ...say after a month ....but I'll start with 5pt wins top 2 or 3 if joint rated 2nd etc .......and see where it takes us ......no more mine collapses ūüė≠ūüė≠ūüė≠

dont do ew if serious it just impacts more when losing streaks come double the pain! unless its a big price and really worth it like ur 25-1s.

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I think with sprints....especially 5f ...all horses pass the dist usually so thexratings are skewed ...6f ...yiu get the odd few who havent ......7f is a specialist dist so is really good ....I'm quite happy to drop 5f .....one slow start out gates and your race is over even if yiurvthe top rated horse ...its just too chaotic and need to get serious 

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Nottingham 15:30 - 23/05/21

Mustarrid - Rating 7.2 - (5.4) 7.5

Crownthorpe - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 15.0

Qaysar - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 5.0

My top three for the this race. Crown and Mustarrid provide value but it is very close in the ratings for all 3.

Still working on my datasets so take with a pinch of salt

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5 hours ago, Luke Walker said:

Nottingham 15:30 - 23/05/21

Mustarrid - Rating 7.2 - (5.4) 7.5

Crownthorpe - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 15.0

Qaysar - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 5.0

My top three for the this race. Crown and Mustarrid provide value but it is very close in the ratings for all 3.

Still working on my datasets so take with a pinch of salt

Well done getting stuck in .....keep it going you'll get there 

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5 hours ago, Luke Walker said:

Nottingham 15:30 - 23/05/21

Mustarrid - Rating 7.2 - (5.4) 7.5

Crownthorpe - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 15.0

Qaysar - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 5.0

My top three for the this race. Crown and Mustarrid provide value but it is very close in the ratings for all 3.

Still working on my datasets so take with a pinch of salt

Interesting you have mustarrid top ....are you relying heavily on course form??

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11 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

14 is pretty strong ill be backing the 3 of course. ive cut the rest (i dotn back favs under 3-1 on ratings so clearly that ones decent too) and two not enough data (3 or four races only ran) so possible dangers but long term trends show both not profitable so happy to dismiss them and go with some outsiders. will be seeing what prices are exchange. may cut one if drifts dramatically ( like going 30-1)

Screenshot_20210522-220022.png

final picks are vino (had to top up) 21.0 and smokey malone 15.0

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Luke Walker said:

Nottingham 15:30 - 23/05/21

Mustarrid - Rating 7.2 - (5.4) 7.5

Crownthorpe - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 15.0

Qaysar - Rating 7.1 - (5.5) 5.0

My top three for the this race. Crown and Mustarrid provide value but it is very close in the ratings for all 3.

Still working on my datasets so take with a pinch of salt

i have mustarrid from my non rating picks too. crownthorpe has trends against it up in trip again even though may show as value it isnt imo. qaysar also looks okay to go close.

Edited by Wildgarden
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Rated a few races but only 1 stands out ....

350 curr 

Aesop   8.0 12/1 

In from cold  7.7 14/1 

Moirann  7.0 7/1 

Dance jupiter  6.9  6/1 

Tough race but top 2 are good prices and these are the sort of races we need to be looking for ....big value so although irish I'll take a chance and play 

Aesop 5pt win 12/1 

In from cold 5pt win 17.0 betfair 

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

14 is pretty strong ill be backing the 3 of course. ive cut the rest (i dotn back favs under 3-1 on ratings so clearly that ones decent too) and two not enough data (3 or four races only ran) so possible dangers but long term trends show both not profitable so happy to dismiss them and go with some outsiders. will be seeing what prices are exchange. may cut one if drifts dramatically ( like going 30-1)

Screenshot_20210522-220022.png

17 wins that drifted so didnt put lol 45-1 ;-( of course it still counts on my results for the actual system it was my mistake not systems lol

Edited by Wildgarden
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