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Pricing your own race


The Brigadier
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16 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

430 nott tues 

Inver park 9.0  15/8

Highest ambition 7.3 13/2 

Inverpark should make a bold bid to win this with conditions perfect ....highest ambition could run well if can translate wolv form to turf ....

Age ...no adjust 

Rprspeed  inver +1.0 

Placed again ......crazy .....how can you rate anything with randoms going in left right and centre .....unbelievable 

But ....its fairly obvious the best horse is the rprspeed one ...vast majority are placing so learning all the time .....

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3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

420 ayr 

Ready freddie go 9.0

Denzils laughing 9.0 

Miss nay never 7.5 

Age ...no adjust 

Rprspeed...no adjust... but top rated ready freddie by 4pts 

 

Well these 5f races are so messy .....ran well but I think it's best to avoid in future .....too many small variables and luck in running 

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6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

8Back on the horse ....(no pun intended 🤣)

440 yarm

Astrogem  8.0 

Salam ya faisal  7.5 

Glenn coco  7.2  

Age adjust  glenn coco  -0.5 

Rprspeed astrogem  +0.5 

1st and 4th ....feeling good now ....closing in .....definate patterns emerging .....1st 2nd 4th ...1st 4th from 3 races is a positive 

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1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

I agree ....usually tge drifters mean bad news especially if drift 5pts or more usually means dead in water so it's a wise move 90% time 

yeah i mean if id backed early was higher odds noorban last night at least so that would have paid but id have a loss on secret doing that early hard to judge really.

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3 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

have u changed anything again? added extra 20%

Yes .....I've been checking around 8 diff things as the results come off  ....def rpr speed is a major positive but best used when you have a shortlist to narrow down so I've put in bonus pile  ........using my own ratings for form ....dont trust rp ones I think they are messy .....taking me ages to get ratings but if that's what it takes then that's what is gonna happen......

Dist is huge ....cropped up everywhere ...far more than I realised tbh ....30% ......going also ....not to same extent but consistent ...10% .....

Form rating 20% 

Last time out   20% ....80% winners in top 5 so although blips occasionally it's a high one ....65 to 70 % in test races so far 

Oh and the biggy...I reinstated the hcap.....I've altered it a bit and that confines it back to hcap but I feel it needs to be in .....

Bonus I have rprspeed ...class and an extra form rating but they are being used to narrow down mainly and will be more helpful in big races 

It's a learning curve but considering these are poor races really it's done ok .....I think in the bigger high class races it will come into it's own especially with the bonus scores ....I'm pretty sure I can knock 6 horses down to 2 or 3 now ........

I'm getting a good feeling .....so a few more test races then can start having fun the weekend 

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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

805 kemp 

Paxos  9.0 

Tgrillseeker 8.0 

Mohareb  7.5 

Gavi di gavi 7.2 

Dynami   7.0 

Age no adjust 

Rprspeed..paxos and thrill +0.5 

Top 2 look interesting here but quite a tough race with some good horses 

Pipped on the line 2and 3rd 4th ..by the looks of it .....that's it ......I'm happy with that no need to mess any further I think its done really well today ...some of those horses were big prices in this last race 

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4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Pipped on the line 2and 3rd 4th ..by the looks of it .....that's it ......I'm happy with that no need to mess any further I think its done really well today ...some of those horses were big prices in this last race 

2and 3rd (at 22/1 ) ...and 5th I think .....top rated only beaten a neck so nothing wrong with that .....1st 4th ...1st 2and 4th ...2and 3rd from 4 races ...not gonna get it much better .....so let the games begin 

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1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

2and 3rd (at 22/1 ) ...and 5th I think .....top rated only beaten a neck so nothing wrong with that .....1st 4th ...1st 2and 4th ...2and 3rd from 4 races ...not gonna get it much better .....so let the games begin 

ur matching a lot of mine so ur doing something right.

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1 minute ago, Wildgarden said:

ur matching a lot of mine so ur doing something right.

Its feeling right now and I'm happy with the percentages from the testing .....of course they wont get every race and there will always be losing runs but I feel confident its tuned right now ....bring on the big races lol .....actually tomorrows is a bit crap I cant find anything tbh 

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I’ve not seen which finished where yet Richard as got crap signal at the mo, but how are you going to determine which to back? As can’t viably back 4 or 5 in same race. So are you going to stick with top 2?

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

I’ve not seen which finished where yet Richard as got crap signal at the mo, but how are you going to determine which to back? As can’t viably back 4 or 5 in same race. So are you going to stick with top 2?

That's the next question .....lol ....top 1 or 2 rpr have been running consistently well throughout testing ....paxos was top and just got pipped....astrogem was top and won easily ....a few others have been pipped that's a good place to start so bonus points for that ......I have a class rating that in some races only left 2 horses and both placed so I can use that too .........

Biggest part is trapping the horses with the form .....if you can do that then sooner or later the dice will fall right ....its inevitable because the odds are stacked in your favour .....

I think a couple of races every Saturday covered in doubles and forecasts even could land a big prize one day but for starters the highest rprspeed horses is a good start ......but it may well come down to just backing the top 2 again ....this time I think I've got a stronger more consistent formula and we saw what happened last time so anything's possible .....its always hinged on getting the percentages right then it can fly

Certainly going to be some fun in the big races throughout the summer ....you only need a little luck  .....I think its destined to land a big win I really believe that 

Edited by richard-westwood
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