Jump to content
Announcements
*** York Ebor Competition: Well done to 1st daveg, 2nd glavintobuy & 3rd Donnyflyer ***
** August Poker League Result : 1st kevsul, 2nd ian309, 3rd Manc **
** August Naps Competition Result: 1st Zidane123, 2nd Adamross, 3rd Wanderlust, 4th Rainbow. KO Cup Winner: Peter York, Most Winners: Alastair **

Pricing your own race


The Brigadier
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Beginning to think  5pt ew top 2  would be a more sensible bet .....yes the winnings would be lower but as seen by recent results you would be collecting 7 times out of 10 ....then when you get the winners on top as well as both selections placing ?....and you can have 6 to 8 places in big races .....like yesterday finished ew at 28/1 ...just think it would make it more ...fun ......and abolish the inevitable losing runs which you get with any system 🤔🤔🤔

Yes ....I think I'll reset the clock to 0 and try 5pt ew starting tomorrow .....even if can just make 3 to 5 pts profit here and there it will mount up long term but be a much safer bet 

Edited by richard-westwood
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

You know what will happen they will start winning again and you will think shall I go win again Sod’s law 😂💰👍

I think ew will just make it more user friendly....you'll still lose a little but if the occasionall big winner keeps you in profit long term .....I'm trying to get it set in stone so the ratings,are set ...they consistently get placed horses ......staking plan ew ....even better if can get 5 places plus etc .....all I've got to do now is find a,way to keep it in profit and the whole thing becomes automatic......put your money in and collect your cheque end of year .....tge answers there for certain ...its just finding the right balance that not only wins but is fun to follow too then it becomes easy 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I think ew will just make it more user friendly....you'll still lose a little but if the occasionall big winner keeps you in profit long term .....I'm trying to get it set in stone so the ratings,are set ...they consistently get placed horses ......staking plan ew ....even better if can get 5 places plus etc .....all I've got to do now is find a,way to keep it in profit and the whole thing becomes automatic......put your money in and collect your cheque end of year .....tge answers there for certain ...its just finding the right balance that not only wins but is fun to follow too then it becomes easy 

Here is what I would suggest mate, and it's your system so obviously you do what's best for you.

Have a look back from when you started and work out what profit you would be in if you had used the new proposed staking plan. Compare it to the one you used and then carry that on for the next few months. You should then have a clear picture of which system is more beneficial long term. I feel the system and staking plan you've been using will provide you with more profit long term, but as you have said, the new proposed plan would provide more security to your bank. Whichever you choose, I wish you all the best with it and I will be following closely. 

Have you priced up any races today or quiet? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Barnes1882 said:

Here is what I would suggest mate, and it's your system so obviously you do what's best for you.

Have a look back from when you started and work out what profit you would be in if you had used the new proposed staking plan. Compare it to the one you used and then carry that on for the next few months. You should then have a clear picture of which system is more beneficial long term. I feel the system and staking plan you've been using will provide you with more profit long term, but as you have said, the new proposed plan would provide more security to your bank. Whichever you choose, I wish you all the best with it and I will be following closely. 

Have you priced up any races today or quiet? 

I had a quick look but nothing really caught my eye and Chester as said above is more of a specialist course ....I'm pretty sure if anyone had time the highest rated ...drawn low horses would give you a fantastic run ....but theres 3 decent handicaps at ascot Friday and similar saturday so as I'm off 3 days after today  I can rate them tonight or early morning 

I think your right ....if there are going to be losing runs I'd rather have bank security .....even if it makes just 100pts profit a year ....if it does it consistently with little risk then it's a winner.....its got to be able to do that surely .....I'll give it a whirl and see where it takes us 🙂

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, BBBC said:

Ratings plus bonuses  .5 for previous course wins and .5 for low draw (1 to 5).

Horses drawn 1 actually have a poor record at Chester with an AE of 0.92. Draws 2 to 4 offer better value with an AE of 1.06.

This is especially good at 5 furlongs where the AE is 1.27. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, BBBC said:

Chester is one of those tracks I have always struggled at for winners ... 

Ratings plus bonuses  .5 for previous course wins and .5 for low draw (1 to 5). I get the same top 2, over a point clear with and without the bonuses

1345 

Makanah 8.8 = 11/2 my book

Jabbarockie 7.9 = 6/1 my book

Like that both travelled strongly in last races as its difficult to come from the back at Chester.

1pt win each (obv not as rich as @richard-westwood!)

With my standard hit and hope I'd probably be on Copper Night due to draw, course form and handicap mark.

Jabbarockie (fav) wins at 5/2. I managed to get 3/1 on one of Fred's pushes but will price it up as SP as I didn't actually write a price up.

2.5 pts minus 1 pt on Makanah = 1.5 pts profit.

Running total of + 4.1 pts

Tomorrow's race - Chester Cup @ 1445

Hochfeld clear with 7.1 = 10/1 in my book

Next best I have 4 horses rated 6.2 and 6.3 = The Grand Visir, Rare Groove, Not so sleepy and Cardano.

So my bet is 1pt ew on Hochfeld using sky or hills who are offering 6 places. Currently 10/1 but I will take a look in the morning. A few have it priced at 12/1 so thats probably the price I would commit at.

I may have an untracked saver on Grand Visir based on price and  Kingscote taking the ride although coming from stall 11 isnt great.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/5/2021 at 5:58 PM, MCLARKE said:

Overall I make a loss in 1 month out of 3.

I have analysed my results over the last 7 years and I have more losing days than winning days (43%).

Longest losing run is 16 days, best winning run is 12 days.

I've made a profit each year which to me is the true test of whether my betting is working.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Barnes1882 said:

Good luck today @richard-westwood, I've backed my own selections and then also the two identified in the three races you priced up. I already had Crimson Sand so was happy he came out on top in your ratings.

Thanks ...you too ....I'm feeling pretty happy .....I like to think of it as a newly bought gold mine ......I've been chipping away down one corridor and found a few nuggets so it's all good .....now I'm trying a different corridor so anything could happen.....theres gold in here so its a lot of fun trying to find it .......that's how I see it I'm very light hearted about the whole thing ...if racing isnt fun you shouldn't do it lol 🤣🤣🤣

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, BBBC said:

Jabbarockie (fav) wins at 5/2. I managed to get 3/1 on one of Fred's pushes but will price it up as SP as I didn't actually write a price up.

2.5 pts minus 1 pt on Makanah = 1.5 pts profit.

Running total of + 4.1 pts

Tomorrow's race - Chester Cup @ 1445

Hochfeld clear with 7.1 = 10/1 in my book

Next best I have 4 horses rated 6.2 and 6.3 = The Grand Visir, Rare Groove, Not so sleepy and Cardano.

So my bet is 1pt ew on Hochfeld using sky or hills who are offering 6 places. Currently 10/1 but I will take a look in the morning. A few have it priced at 12/1 so thats probably the price I would commit at.

I may have an untracked saver on Grand Visir based on price and  Kingscote taking the ride although coming from stall 11 isnt great.

 

Hochfeld 3rd.

I took 11/1 with the 6 places ew

3.2 pts returned so 1.2 pts profit

Running total + 5.3

Slowly slowly catchee monkey...

My saver on Grand Visir was 2nd as well so overall not bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well .....it looks like the new ratings wheels have just fell off for whatever reason ......could be that 9nce theyve had a good run the average rating is not reflecting that (which makes sense)....so I'll try something new until I can stabilise them .....its a learning curve ....the answers there and this is part of the process but no point flogging a dead horse (no pun ...🤣🤣)

I'll rate some races shortly 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Well .....it looks like the new ratings wheels have just fell off for whatever reason ......could be that 9nce theyve had a good run the average rating is not reflecting that (which makes sense)....so I'll try something new until I can stabilise them .....its a learning curve ....the answers there and this is part of the process but no point flogging a dead horse (no pun ...🤣🤣)

I'll rate some races shortly 

back top 3 ur missing some big winners 3rd rated? plus win only i prefer

Edited by Wildgarden
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Well .....it looks like the new ratings wheels have just fell off for whatever reason ......could be that 9nce theyve had a good run the average rating is not reflecting that (which makes sense)....so I'll try something new until I can stabilise them .....its a learning curve ....the answers there and this is part of the process but no point flogging a dead horse (no pun ...🤣🤣)

I'll rate some races shortly 

What are you doing differently now to what you were doing a couple of weeks ago when you were firing in winner after winner Richard? Has anything changed in your methods? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's possible that might be the answer but there definately feels like something is wrong .....started off fantastic but its possible that if the horse had a 52 lto ...and then suddenly does 90 ...the average is 72 so if the horse runs 89 next time the ratings are way out .... that's what I think has happened ....it kinda makes sense so I'll go back to basic ratings for now and see if I can get a few winners in .....then take it from there ........

Today's first race 

405 nott 

Bint al anood  6/1  8.1 

Serious intention  8/1 7.5 

I'll go 10pt wins top 2 rated as they are a little clear 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

What are you doing differently now to what you were doing a couple of weeks ago when you were firing in winner after winner Richard? Has anything changed in your methods? 

That's the point ...nothings changed ....I think its the average that's pulling the rating down when the horse is better than that if its last run is really good......it does work for some horses who run consistently to the same level but improvers are falling through ......no big deal ....I've learnt some more so theres more than 1 way to skin a cat lol 🤣

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@richard-westwood I think the issue you are describing maybe spot on especially for 3 year old handicaps as the ratings dont have much to go on. Your best ts and rpr marks will be over just a few races.  Plus you have likely  improvement from horses which is impossible to factor in.

Personally i rarely look at 3 year old handicaps until much later in the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, BBBC said:

@richard-westwood I think the issue you are describing maybe spot on especially for 3 year old handicaps as the ratings dont have much to go on. Your best ts and rpr marks will be over just a few races.  Plus you have likely  improvement from horses which is impossible to factor in.

Personally i rarely look at 3 year old handicaps until much later in the season.

I really think that's what happened .....shame cos it was doing so well but if it doesnt work it doesnt work 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

It's possible that might be the answer but there definately feels like something is wrong .....started off fantastic but its possible that if the horse had a 52 lto ...and then suddenly does 90 ...the average is 72 so if the horse runs 89 next time the ratings are way out .... that's what I think has happened ....it kinda makes sense so I'll go back to basic ratings for now and see if I can get a few winners in .....then take it from there ........

Today's first race 

405 nott 

Bint al anood  6/1  8.1 

Serious intention  8/1 7.5 

I'll go 10pt wins top 2 rated as they are a little clear 

do speed only for last recent race if other race was several months ago.

Edited by Wildgarden
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I really think that's what happened .....shame cos it was doing so well but if it doesnt work it doesnt work 

I think you are being a bit hard on yourself. It is probably just chance, you need to look at the results over a much larger number of races before you can come to a conclusion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rexrated the victoria cup but unusually rated as follows 

Motakhayyel   8.7 

Green side   8.4 

Jack's point 8.4 

Keysir soze  8.1 

Escobar    8.1 

Fox champion  7.8 

Eagleway    7.8 

Top 3 here almost identical to top 4 on other ....I've backed Jack's point already so with motak at 22.0 ...and green side at 32.0 !!....I'll try 10pt wins those 2 betfair 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...