Jump to content
Announcements
*** York Ebor Competition: Well done to 1st daveg, 2nd glavintobuy & 3rd Donnyflyer ***
** August Poker League Result : 1st kevsul, 2nd ian309, 3rd Manc **
** August Naps Competition Result: 1st Zidane123, 2nd Adamross, 3rd Wanderlust, 4th Rainbow. KO Cup Winner: Peter York, Most Winners: Alastair **

Pricing your own race


The Brigadier
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Definately only 1 .......I'm working long shifts next few days so I just wont have time but I'm off thurs fri so I'll be able to rate all the week ends racing .....I think there will loads of bets ....some fantastic hcaps and the guineas etc .....I'm just gonna get stuck in .....1000pts by sunday night ???....that's the target 😁😂😂

Well i'm along for the ride!! Look forward to it!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Definately only 1 .......I'm working long shifts next few days so I just wont have time but I'm off thurs fri so I'll be able to rate all the week ends racing .....I think there will loads of bets ....some fantastic hcaps and the guineas etc .....I'm just gonna get stuck in .....1000pts by sunday night ???....that's the target 😁😂😂

hope ur gona stay around after 1000 saves me rating some helps out when we share the load

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, DanV89 said:

I must admit I liked Cosmos myself and then saw it had been backed into 15/8 from 11/2!

I actually did all 6 of your selections in ew doubles (only small stakes), so nice return - maybe i'll have to start doing the forecast too!!

I think theres been 6 forecasts in 26 bets ...so it's averaging 1 in 5 roughly ...I'll keep an eye on it 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

I use betfair a lot so that helps tbh ....I get so.e really good prices on there...sometimes I feel like Ive mugged them haha.....I could survive on just that so I'm not worried overly lol

Only thing with the Exchange is you obviously don't get BOG. Not an issue when one is smashed off the boards like Cosmos today but I backed Chookie at 5/1 and got paid out at 8/1 with Bet365.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, DanV89 said:

Only thing with the Exchange is you obviously don't get BOG. Not an issue when one is smashed off the boards like Cosmos today but I backed Chookie at 5/1 and got paid out at 8/1 with Bet365.

Yeah and me  ...but there have been races where I got 10.0  and the horse,won at 11/2 .....I always check on there before I place any bets ....especially big priced horses ....lost count of 16/1 shots being offered at 24.0 on betfair  ..its crazy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

Only thing with the Exchange is you obviously don't get BOG. Not an issue when one is smashed off the boards like Cosmos today but I backed Chookie at 5/1 and got paid out at 8/1 with Bet365.

i always cover with extra whatever stake ur on if drifts to average out not an issue. bog can be removed if getting lots of early decent prices and winning on drifters. i know.

Edited by Wildgarden
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, richard-westwood said:

If ......we get to 1000....I'll step it up and really go after them .......a full on war until I get completely banned lol

lol like i say best stick to forecast and accas only at bookies imo to last them out longer. annoying how many bookies dont accept reverse forecast accas online. prob better offline for the forecast accas...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

lol like i say best stick to forecast and accas only at bookies imo to last them out longer. annoying how many bookies dont accept reverse forecast accas online. prob better offline for the forecast accas...

That's why they are scared of them ....the chance of landing one is very small ....but it's possible.....I dont suppose 4 bets on top 2 in 2 races is a lot at 0.5pt ...(2pts ?) .....it might fluke it one time and woukd pay thousands...I can see 2 coming together one day  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

i always cover with extra whatever stake ur on if drifts to average out not an issue. bog can be removed if getting lots of early decent prices and winning on drifters. i know.

See ....youve raised an interesting point there.....I havent even considered laying the bets ....ive totally lost count of selections being well backed like today .....could just lay  them fir guaranteed money .....definately an opportunity there.....not big money but it's free money 

Edited by richard-westwood
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

That's why they are scared of them ....the chance of landing one is very small ....but it's possible.....I dont suppose 4 bets on top 2 in 2 races is a lot at 0.5pt ...(2pts ?) .....it might fluke it one time and woukd pay thousands...I can see 2 coming together one day  

my friend had £57k from £4 on reverse forecast dogs and horses acca... my best is 800-1 sadly lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

See ....youve raised an interesting point there.....I havent even considered laying the bets ....ive totally lost count of selections being well backed like today .....could just lay  them fir guaranteed money .....definately an opportunity there.....not big money but it's free money 

i dont mean lay. i mean put more cash when drifting. if coming in leave it. pointless trading out when u had value. if u want to trade, look at inplay to trade out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

650 winds monday 

Mitrosonfire 8.9  10/1 

Ancient times  8.4 4/1 

Perfect signs  7.4  16/1 

Billy mill     7.2   9/2 

Perfect signs is overpriced and very good value at 16/1 ...but I'll try the top 2 at 4/1 and 10/1 and hope the biggy goes in ....2x10pt wins 

got kohinoor 11.5 im afraid against urs today

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Managed to squeeze a rating in 

450 punch tues 

Magic tricks  8.3 8.0 

Ruaille buille 7.5  13.5 

Champagne gold   6.9  18/1 

The mouse doc   6.8  25/1 

Very open race ....any number in with chances....just gonna stick with ratings and hope a biggy goes in ...I'm scared of champagne with rachel blackmore on board ...might have a saver myself on that ...2x 10pt wins 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/25/2021 at 6:09 PM, richard-westwood said:

650 winds monday 

Mitrosonfire 8.9  10/1 

Ancient times  8.4 4/1 

Perfect signs  7.4  16/1 

Billy mill     7.2   9/2 

Perfect signs is overpriced and very good value at 16/1 ...but I'll try the top 2 at 4/1 and 10/1 and hope the biggy goes in ....2x10pt wins 

Ancient started slow....finished 4th ..bummer .....current total +591 .00

Edited by richard-westwood
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi all, not had any time lately to rate any races. Have a bit more time now so will start to rate a few going forward. I've caught up on the thread and have consequently replaced the last winning form rating with my take on the speed figs. I was never happy with the previous form ratings as there was no allowance for lbs below last winning mark. I've been interested in speed for some time so makes a lot of sense to me. Thanks for the pointer Richard!

With that in mind here's my take on the 15.20 Nottingham tomorrow:

Lights On            16.10      11/2       7/4     No value

Royal Dynasty    15.49       6/1       11/2    About right

Seperate             14.73     13/2       16/1    Value

Madame Tantzy   13.31     7/1        15/2    Value

Rosa Gold           13.27    7.25/1     7/1     About right

Poets Lady          12.57    7.75/1     3/1     No value

Top 2 1pt win ea @ BFSP. Can't leave Seperate at that price though don't think it will win. A place bet or ew if still 8 in tomorrow.

Like Villa Chris, I have trouble getting the fav's price anywhere close. Don't want to mess around too much though as they won't then be ratings! Well done on your results Richard, very impressive mate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Pirate53 said:

Hi all, not had any time lately to rate any races. Have a bit more time now so will start to rate a few going forward. I've caught up on the thread and have consequently replaced the last winning form rating with my take on the speed figs. I was never happy with the previous form ratings as there was no allowance for lbs below last winning mark. I've been interested in speed for some time so makes a lot of sense to me. Thanks for the pointer Richard!

With that in mind here's my take on the 15.20 Nottingham tomorrow:

Lights On            16.10      11/2       7/4     No value

Royal Dynasty    15.49       6/1       11/2    About right

Seperate             14.73     13/2       16/1    Value

Madame Tantzy   13.31     7/1        15/2    Value

Rosa Gold           13.27    7.25/1     7/1     About right

Poets Lady          12.57    7.75/1     3/1     No value

Top 2 1pt win ea @ BFSP. Can't leave Seperate at that price though don't think it will win. A place bet or ew if still 8 in tomorrow.

Like Villa Chris, I have trouble getting the fav's price anywhere close. Don't want to mess around too much though as they won't then be ratings! Well done on your results Richard, very impressive mate.

Get stuck in ....the more you do the better it becomes ...I love reading the ratings people put on ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Pirate53 said:

Hi all, not had any time lately to rate any races. Have a bit more time now so will start to rate a few going forward. I've caught up on the thread and have consequently replaced the last winning form rating with my take on the speed figs. I was never happy with the previous form ratings as there was no allowance for lbs below last winning mark. I've been interested in speed for some time so makes a lot of sense to me. Thanks for the pointer Richard!

With that in mind here's my take on the 15.20 Nottingham tomorrow:

Lights On            16.10      11/2       7/4     No value

Royal Dynasty    15.49       6/1       11/2    About right

Seperate             14.73     13/2       16/1    Value

Madame Tantzy   13.31     7/1        15/2    Value

Rosa Gold           13.27    7.25/1     7/1     About right

Poets Lady          12.57    7.75/1     3/1     No value

Top 2 1pt win ea @ BFSP. Can't leave Seperate at that price though don't think it will win. A place bet or ew if still 8 in tomorrow.

Like Villa Chris, I have trouble getting the fav's price anywhere close. Don't want to mess around too much though as they won't then be ratings! Well done on your results Richard, very impressive mate.

If you wonder why Poets Lady is so lowly rated, her form is 212-7. The 212 was all on soft/good to soft. Tomorrow will prob be brick hard. She may go on it, but can't risk my money with that uncertainty.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Pirate53 said:

Hi all, not had any time lately to rate any races. Have a bit more time now so will start to rate a few going forward. I've caught up on the thread and have consequently replaced the last winning form rating with my take on the speed figs. I was never happy with the previous form ratings as there was no allowance for lbs below last winning mark. I've been interested in speed for some time so makes a lot of sense to me. Thanks for the pointer Richard!

With that in mind here's my take on the 15.20 Nottingham tomorrow:

Lights On            16.10      11/2       7/4     No value

Royal Dynasty    15.49       6/1       11/2    About right

Seperate             14.73     13/2       16/1    Value

Madame Tantzy   13.31     7/1        15/2    Value

Rosa Gold           13.27    7.25/1     7/1     About right

Poets Lady          12.57    7.75/1     3/1     No value

Top 2 1pt win ea @ BFSP. Can't leave Seperate at that price though don't think it will win. A place bet or ew if still 8 in tomorrow.

Like Villa Chris, I have trouble getting the fav's price anywhere close. Don't want to mess around too much though as they won't then be ratings! Well done on your results Richard, very impressive mate.

Lights On wins, Seperate 3rd. Poets Lady crapped out!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Current profit  ....+571.00

2000 guineas  final ratings 

Small bonus for class and ground applied 

St Mark's basilica  9.4 

Master of seas    9.0 

Van gogh        8.9  

Poetic flare     8.8  

Lucky Vega     8.7

Naval crown    8.6 

Wembley      8.6 

Extremely close race as youd expect as you have to be talented to even get in  ......I dont like wembley ...he has been well backed into fav but not proven winner at group 1 .....st Mark's basilica looks a very decent price on betfair currently 13.5   ....has beaten wembley on soft ground ...the adjusted speed figures for that race stack up ..interesting .....master of seas also looks overpriced on betfair at 11.0 .......its an open race but at those prices I'm happy to play those 2 at current prices 

St Mark's basilica 10pt win 13.5 betfair 

Master of the sea    10pt win 11.0 betfair 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

 

Current profit  ....+571.00

2000 guineas  final ratings 

Small bonus for class and ground applied 

St Mark's basilica  9.4 

Master of seas    9.0 

Van gogh        8.9  

Poetic flare     8.8  

Lucky Vega     8.7

Naval crown    8.6 

Wembley      8.6 

Extremely close race as youd expect as you have to be talented to even get in  ......I dont like wembley ...he has been well backed into fav but not proven winner at group 1 .....st Mark's basilica looks a very decent price on betfair currently 13.5   ....has beaten wembley on soft ground ...the adjusted speed figures for that race stack up ..interesting .....master of seas also looks overpriced on betfair at 11.0 .......its an open race but at those prices I'm happy to play those 2 at current prices 

St Mark's basilica 10pt win 13.5 betfair 

Master of the sea    10pt win 11.0 betfair 

Think the main reason Wembley has been backed into favouritism is because he’s been tipped up by Hugh Taylor. 
 

Has Buick chosen Master Of The Seas over One Ruler? If that’s confirmed then that would be a big pointer in itself surely? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

Think the main reason Wembley has been backed into favouritism is because he’s been tipped up by Hugh Taylor. 
 

Has Buick chosen Master Of The Seas over One Ruler? If that’s confirmed then that would be a big pointer in itself surely? 

Well hes a group 1 winner and fast ground winner  ..if the ground stays on the fast side he would be my fav to win ....hes twice the price of wembley so I'm happy to take the fav on ..way better value 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, DanV89 said:

Think the main reason Wembley has been backed into favouritism is because he’s been tipped up by Hugh Taylor. 
 

Has Buick chosen Master Of The Seas over One Ruler? If that’s confirmed then that would be a big pointer in itself surely? 

https://www.thenationalnews.com/sport/horse-racing/william-buick-plumps-for-master-of-the-seas-for-2000-guineas-at-newmarket-1.1211884

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exchange betting on St Marks Basilica is all over the place this morning - I've seen it available to back at 100. I can only think this is because someone in the know thinks this isn't running ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...