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Mother earth wins 10/1 !!....that better  Back up to +511.00

Rough Tide ........ WON 40/1 think I'll retire now ....... 😃

One of the questions I've seen most on forums is how do you determine value ????.....so let's try an value experiment and see how it goes .... First of all you need to decided what is important a

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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Do you consider the going when looking back on its last 3 runs. For example today might be G/F but last three  runs were on Good, Good, Soft. Would you still use that as a guide to how quick the horse is and it’s RPR form rating. Also when looking back at its last 2-3 runs do you look back at its last 3 runs from last year if it still hasn’t run this year yet. Just thinking the horse might not run as well on G/F or the horse ran well towards end of last season but usually takes a 2-3 runs to get at peak form for the new season . 

I dont no .....I rate the nearest races ....so if last time was turf the 2nd last was a.w ...the 3rd was turf I'd rate the 1st and 3rd .....I can see your point about going but so far it hasn't made much difference.....why that is I dont know ....like today ...sky defenders rating was from all weather ....so there was no guarantee hed translate but he did 

Tbh I dont have any rigid rules .....the only rigid rule is the speed rating last 2 regardless .....I want to know roughly where the horse is based on most recent runs not like 3 or 4 runs ago .....id say in rpr about 80% will be in the last 2 runs also .....its only occasionally I go to the 3rd run but it's not very often ...its usually an a.w run or an unusually bad run that had a reason or most likely the distance .....if the 1st and 3rd  runs were 10f runs and today's 10f I'd use those as it's more relevant....it tends to be a feeling more than anything I just try and get as close as I can to today's conditions ....

If no run I still treat the same .....so far I havent even worried about fitness .....but I'd probably go ew rather than win on those 

Im trying to find races where the strongest 2 have a distinct advantage ....then if they fall a little short because of ground or whatever they can still be competitive .....its the best I can do .... I dont want to over complicate it because as it stands I can rate a race in 15 mins now and blindly backing the top 2 regardless of other factors just seems to work....I dont quite understand it ...it just does 

You will get plenty of losers too but hopefully if you can land the odd 10/1 etc you'll suddenly shoot forward....you still need a certain amount of luck that you cant account for

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Wow just had a good read through this thread! Fantastic work all of you, some amazing results. Can I just ask @richard-westwood, say you are backing each selection 10pts, you said you're 350.00pts up. So is that actually 35pts profit or is it actually 350pts? For example say your 10pt bet is £10, would your bank now be £350 or £3500? Thank you and keep up the fantastic work, I think I'll have to trial following yours blind for a week or so. 

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1 hour ago, Barnes1882 said:

Wow just had a good read through this thread! Fantastic work all of you, some amazing results. Can I just ask @richard-westwood, say you are backing each selection 10pts, you said you're 350.00pts up. So is that actually 35pts profit or is it actually 350pts? For example say your 10pt bet is £10, would your bank now be £350 or £3500? Thank you and keep up the fantastic work, I think I'll have to trial following yours blind for a week or so. 

That's 350.00....lol ......if it was 3500 after 18 races I'd be betting 50 a race now 🤣🤣....if I can keep it profitable now I'll be happy ....doesnt have to be perfect but if the occasional big winner can keep it in front I'll be happy 

There are some nice hcaps coming up the weekend ....2 or 3 losing races and you drop down ....1 x 16/1 winner and its happy days .....all in the lap of the racing gods now ......I'll test it to destruction .....I know it will pick winners for certain ....its just whether its consistent enough to be long term profitable .....I genuinely think it's a coin toss 50/50 

In a monthes time we could have a long losing run and bum out ....or the bank could be 3x what it is now ......theres a certain amount of pure luck involved and how often the bigger priced come in ....4x losing races is minus 80 ....but if the 5th race wins at 11/1 your laughing ....the only thing for certain is price isnt a factor ....if a 33/1 is top 2 rated then it can win and you only need one of those to go in .....

So the big hcaps are risky by nature ....but the rewards could be huge 

I feel quietly confident....but yes weve all seen the ground open up and swallow you so my advice is never bet more than you can afford to lose then you'll be ok no matter what happens 

It's not like it's never gonna pick another winner cos that ridiculous....its just can I keep it profitable?

If I get chance tomorrow I'll work out what 5pt ew returns are top 2 .....it may well be an ew bet could be a better long term prospect given the high percentage of placed horses ?....

Either way we are gonna learn something 🤣

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Theres no right or wrong using this ....looking at everyone's approach you can see there are any number of ways to make this work ....its purely down to personal choice which is a good thing because its specifically suited to you and how you like to bet 

Anything that makes a horse win a race can be used ...as long as you stay within the 100% border for all fields you can then move on to section 2 which is pricing .....I really want to boost the form line to 120% but I know I'll lose the pricing accuracy which is a big part of this and does help with bet selection ....

Next race for me after today will probably be fridays esher cup and other races ....some nice races this weekend 

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Heres an interesting race to discuss...I e just finished rating fridays esher cup 

Dingle 8.8.

Namooos 8.8 

Rifleman  8.4 

Quintillus   7.2

On paper I'd back dingle and namooos now  but dingle didnt seem to stay last time ..  whereas namoos and rifleman are easy milers .....with thex1pt bonus for dist the ratings become 

Namooos 9.8

Rifleman 9.4 

Dingle 8.8 

So what do I do ..... play the original or dist adjusted ....its not always straightforward 🤣

My gut is telling me to play the dist adjusted one 

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18 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Heres an interesting race to discuss...I e just finished rating fridays esher cup 

Dingle 8.8.

Namooos 8.8 

Rifleman  8.4 

Quintillus   7.2

On paper I'd back dingle and namooos now  but dingle didnt seem to stay last time ..  whereas namoos and rifleman are easy milers .....with thex1pt bonus for dist the ratings become 

Namooos 9.8

Rifleman 9.4 

Dingle 8.8 

So what do I do ..... play the original or dist adjusted ....its not always straightforward 🤣

My gut is telling me to play the dist adjusted one 

He’s won at a mile on the AW before. 8 furlong is one mile isn’t it? 

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18 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

He’s won at a mile on the AW before. 8 furlong is one mile isn’t it? 

Yeah but on turf last time he faded badly at 7f ....if it had been a mile that day he would have been miles away ?

Or just put it down to 1st run back .....although its only been a week 🤔🤔

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13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Yeah but on turf last time he faded badly at 7f ....if it had been a mile that day he would have been miles away ?

Or just put it down to 1st run back .....although its only been a week 🤔🤔

He finished 2 lengths behind the winner and it says he got hampered final 110 yards. Might pay to watch a replay of that race, if you haven’t already that is. First run back as you say, so maybe needed it. I’ve just rated it. Don’t bother with these kind of races usually as not much to go on and there’s plenty who can find massive improvement as they are only 3 year olds . 
 

Dingle 7.4

Naamoos 7.15 

These two clear of rest 

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7 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

He finished 2 lengths behind the winner and it says he got hampered final 110 yards. Might pay to watch a replay of that race, if you haven’t already that is. First run back as you say, so maybe needed it. I’ve just rated it. Don’t bother with these kind of races usually as not much to go on and there’s plenty who can find massive improvement as they are only 3 year olds . 
 

Dingle 7.4

Naamoos 7.15 

These two clear of rest 

Yeah ordinarily there wouldn't be a problem but the 3rd  horse rifleman won on the bit last time over 7f and has ryan moore on board ....not something you ignore .....

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Just watched the race back. Slightly hampered which made him lose momentum, but wouldn’t have won anyway. Reading his previous race write ups and having watched his last race I think he’d run better over 8f than 7f but that’s just my view .

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2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Yeah ordinarily there wouldn't be a problem but the 3rd  horse rifleman won on the bit last time over 7f and has ryan moore on board ....not something you ignore .....

Go with your gut and whatever has been working for you best 

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18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

145 catt weds 

Love of zoffany  7.2 

Hope probe    7.0 

Ginato  5.5 

Top 2 aren't huge prices but do have strong ratings ....you can get 5.1 ..5.2 on betfair ...generally 7/2 ....so I'll try 2 x10pt wins at betfair 

Hope probe wins ....52 -20 is 32 ...total after 19 races ...+ 382 pts (10pt wins top 2)

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18 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

You might be right .....too many blind spots for a 7/2 winner .....probably best to look elsewhere 

Just looked at Saturdays racing and there’s a lot going on . Potentially 7 races for me to rate . Is 7 races too many? Would have to be strict and just go with top rated I think . Sunday there’s another 3 in Ireland that looks worth a crack . 

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7 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Just looked at Saturdays racing and there’s a lot going on . Potentially 7 races for me to rate . Is 7 races too many? Would have to be strict and just go with top rated I think . Sunday there’s another 3 in Ireland that looks worth a crack . 

I dont suppose it matters as long as the races are quality .....I think it will be the big hcaps where things are decided .....if can land on some big priced ones its happy days but they are harder to win .....in the lap of the racing gods 

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Beverley 210 thurs 

Dapper man  9.1 

Buniann     8.2 

Nibras again   6.9 

5f races are generally tricky but the top 2 here are a fair bit ahead ....prices are very cramped at 11/4 and 7/2 ...but dapper man has run 3 times in a week so that's going to catch up at some point hopefully allowing buniann to slip past for an extra bit of profit ....

10pt wins top 2 

 

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7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Beverley 210 thurs 

Dapper man  9.1 

Buniann     8.2 

Nibras again   6.9 

5f races are generally tricky but the top 2 here are a fair bit ahead ....prices are very cramped at 11/4 and 7/2 ...but dapper man has run 3 times in a week so that's going to catch up at some point hopefully allowing buniann to slip past for an extra bit of profit ....

10pt wins top 2 

 

my pick earlier!

Screenshot_20210421-185101.thumb.png.7e477b1ec8ce0c97b281e58def6e3347.png

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51 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Beverley 210 thurs 

Dapper man  9.1 

Buniann     8.2 

Nibras again   6.9 

5f races are generally tricky but the top 2 here are a fair bit ahead ....prices are very cramped at 11/4 and 7/2 ...but dapper man has run 3 times in a week so that's going to catch up at some point hopefully allowing buniann to slip past for an extra bit of profit ....

10pt wins top 2 

 

Be careful with this race tomorrow. I had Nibras Again last time out and was then put up by Hugh Taylor. Midgley the king of 5f races and Stott is the go to jockey. That could be the horse to beat.

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3 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

Be careful with this race tomorrow. I had Nibras Again last time out and was then put up by Hugh Taylor. Midgley the king of 5f races and Stott is the go to jockey. That could be the horse to beat.

level stakes on everything so no need to be careful wont be lumping on 😉

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3 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

level stakes on everything so no need to be careful wont be lumping on 😉

Fair point. Listen, the system looks great and clearly works, it's been great catching up and watching you guys all winning in here. It's just when I saw that race tomorrow and saw Midgley had three in the same race it caught my eye with the jockey.

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