Wildgarden Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Blue De Vega would have had a significant deduction for age as he’s 8 and that’s old for flat horses. Came from the dark is probably at its peak as a five year old and was strong in the betting. I felt comfortable with Tis Marvellous’s rating although 7, so would have had a deduction but would have still have been top rated no doubt . Came from the dark would have been second rated if I’d used the age ratings . Keep learning and tweaking and hopefully get a good run out of it. Not bad so far. i meant allweather and flats btw lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: i meant allweather and flats btw lol Yes I gathered. So you reckon I deduct 10% off their rating if they are above a certain age Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 It's a hard one ....a horse is considered to have stopped growing at 5/6 ....but I've known plenty of horses who can fully compete age 7 ....I think 8 is a definate negative ....not so sure about 7 .....I'd say 7 is like a,10yo over jumps ...and 8 like 11 etc Villa Chris, gbettle and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 1 minute ago, richard-westwood said: It's a hard one ....a horse is considered to have stopped growing at 5/6 ....but I've known plenty of horses who can fully compete age 7 ....I think 8 is a definate negative ....not so sure about 7 .....I'd say 7 is like a,10yo over jumps ...and 8 like 11 etc Totally with you on this . 10 year old jump horses still have it in them to win top top races . 7 year old flat horses, although won’t improve any, might still remain competitive. Well some will anyway. I think the way round it is to look at their form. If a 7 year old won two starts back in same class and their mark isn’t too harsh, then you could have them down as still having the ability to be competitive. Ones judgement is needed for individual horses . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 19 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 2.15 Newbury Charlie D 9, 18/1(17/2) value nowhere Cleonte 8.25, 9/1(9/1) right odds 4th Couer De Lion 7.7, 18/1(10/1) value nowhere Not so good. The two 8 year olds bettered the 6 year old ? richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) 50 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Yes I gathered. So you reckon I deduct 10% off their rating if they are above a certain age yes looking at historic stats at betfair prices ... or ditch altogether since they arent profitable longterm. peoples attitudes may change of course if the general public becomes sharper and they may become more level - who knows. Edited April 16, 2021 by Wildgarden Villa Chris, gbettle and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) Curragh 2.35 Lancaster House 9.2 , 8/1(7/2) no value won Speak In Colours 8.2, 9/1(17/2)no value Know It All 8 , 9/1-10/1(7/2) no value 3rd Current Option 7.9 , 10/1 (15/2) no value 2nd The bookies have all 4 near the top of the betting . Edited April 17, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) 3.10 Curragh Broome 8.25, 4/5(7/1) no value won Pondus 7.75, 11/1(8/1) value Bowerman 7.45, 10/1( 8/1) value Thundering Nights , 7.35, 12/1(8/1) value 2nd Edited April 17, 2021 by Villa Chris richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore double? top rated in both races Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 1210 thirsk Highjacked 8.0 8/1 3/1 no value Billy wedge 7.3 9/1 6/1 no value Confrontational 7.0 9/1 10/1 value bet Highland acclaim 6.7 Tricky little race ....I can narrow to these 4 but then its anyones....I think I'll go for jockeys...highjacked has Danny tudhope on ...always a strong one .....and I'll take a chance on confrontational with Rossa ryan who seems to be riding well currently and bet365 are offering a generous 10/1 !! ..pp 11/2 Highjacked 10pt win 3/1 Confrontational 5pt ew 10/1 bet365 Wildgarden and BBBC 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) 415 curr Raise you 9.0 Fil the power 8.4 Dance jupiter 8.0 Hayyel 7.5 O brien runs 4 with raise you a lesser fancy but if he translate soft ground form to good then could run well ...top 2 ew for me Raise you 5pt ew 8/1 5 places Fil the power 5pt ew 9/1 5 places Edited April 16, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) Scottish national Mighty Thunder 7.5, 11/1(15/1) no won value Coup De Pinceau 6.8, 22/1(17/1) value Vintage Clouds 6.65, 10/1(17/1) no value Soldier Of Love 6.6, 8/1(18/1) no value Big River 6.45, 16/1(18/1) no value Top rated looks the bet as I think he stays all day . 5 points ew Mighty Thunder 11/1 Edited April 18, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Going for the Curragh double tomorrow Lancaster House/Broome 13/2 10 points the bet richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 (edited) Scottish national Aye right 9.7 Sam's adventure 9.0 Dingo dollar 8.6 Mighty thunder 8.5 Cool mix 8.2 Chef Doevre 8.1 I dont like Sam's adventure (breeding) ....mighty thunder ( price lto)..or cool mix (days ).......that leaves Aye right 9.7 11/2 Dingo dollar 8.6 10/1 Chef Doevre 8.1 40/1 Aye right looks,a strong bet for this ....chef doevre is vastly overpriced at 40/1 !!... I'll try 10pt wins aye and dingo ...5pt ew chef 40/1 6 places Edited April 16, 2021 by richard-westwood vikki37, Villa Chris and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Aye Right keeps running his balls off in very competitive handicaps. He deserves a big un but I’m not sure he’ll stay . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Yeah I know what you mean they have a high weight .....I like your mighty thunder but trends say dont back any horse that was higher than 16/1 lto ....I dont know why that works must be a class thing ...but it has in the past time and time again ...so I scrubbed it .....I'm hoping the low weighted 40/1 is gonna win personally ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Attempting 1140 thirsk shortlisted to below, seems close to odds. bedford flyer has poorer draw and rohaan didnt frank it either and draw 11 has never won a race from 99 at lower prices (rebel) so going with the fav cottam lane 4.4 betfair exchange and shalaa asker 16.5 betfair exchange richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 1210 thirsk Highjacked 8.0 8/1 3/1 no value Billy wedge 7.3 9/1 6/1 no value Confrontational 7.0 9/1 10/1 value bet Highland acclaim 6.7 Tricky little race ....I can narrow to these 4 but then its anyones....I think I'll go for jockeys...highjacked has Danny tudhope on ...always a strong one .....and I'll take a chance on confrontational with Rossa ryan who seems to be riding well currently and bet365 are offering a generous 10/1 !! ..pp 11/2 Highjacked 10pt win 3/1 Confrontational 5pt ew 10/1 bet365 also have highjacked but may add carlovian if it has support! have more winners on racing chat if u look Edited April 17, 2021 by Wildgarden BBBC and richard-westwood 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Wildgarden said: also have highjacked but may add carlovian if it has support! have more winners on racing chat if u look It's a hard day tbh ....ive rated about 5 races but a lot of them are really close ...like the top 5 or 6 all bunched together ...the 2 races I posted are probably the best of the bunch and they are still difficult ....good luck to anyone playing today ? Edited April 17, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 (edited) 8 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Yeah I know what you mean they have a high weight .....I like your mighty thunder but trends say dont back any horse that was higher than 16/1 lto ....I dont know why that works must be a class thing ...but it has in the past time and time again ...so I scrubbed it .....I'm hoping the low weighted 40/1 is gonna win personally ? Mighty Thunder ran a blinder lto . He just got beat by the very short priced JP horse who looks a good un. 5Ib rise to contend with, but we’ll see. Edited April 17, 2021 by Villa Chris richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Just a quick one. You know when we do our own odds and we have top rated 11/1 but bookies have them 7/2. Is that the bookies being tight or is it our odds out by a few points ? If we are out by a few points is there any way we can get the odds down to be more realistic. Ok it’s killing the value factor a bit , but if our odds are out then surely it’s better to get them more accurate . Use points for horses strong in the betting is maybe one solution . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBBC Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 1210 Thirsk best price i can see for Confrontational is now only 5/1. Glad I saw your post last night. Thanks @richard-westwood. Everyone else who contributes especially @Wildgarden and @Villa Chris keep up the good work!! Wildgarden, vikki37, richard-westwood and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Just a quick one. You know when we do our own odds and we have top rated 11/1 but bookies have them 7/2. Is that the bookies being tight or is it our odds out by a few points ? If we are out by a few points is there any way we can get the odds down to be more realistic. Ok it’s killing the value factor a bit , but if our odds are out then surely it’s better to get them more accurate . Use points for horses strong in the betting is maybe one solution I suspect it's because there are factors causing the lower odds that are not in your calculations. There are thousands of variables that impact a horse result and we can only account for a few of them. I will have another bash at this during the flat season but I couldn't make it work for the jumps or AW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 10 hours ago, Wildgarden said: Attempting 1140 thirsk shortlisted to below, seems close to odds. bedford flyer has poorer draw and rohaan didnt frank it either and draw 11 has never won a race from 99 at lower prices (rebel) so going with the fav cottam lane 4.4 betfair exchange and shalaa asker 16.5 betfair exchange 2nd and 3rd rated 2nd and 3rd ;-s Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I suspect it's because there are factors causing the lower odds that are not in your calculations. There are thousands of variables that impact a horse result and we can only account for a few of them. I will have another bash at this during the flat season but I couldn't make it work for the jumps or AW. I might try and add one or two things and see how it works. Don’t want to interfere with it too much though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 13 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Yeah I know what you mean they have a high weight .....I like your mighty thunder but trends say dont back any horse that was higher than 16/1 lto ....I dont know why that works must be a class thing ...but it has in the past time and time again ...so I scrubbed it .....I'm hoping the low weighted 40/1 is gonna win personally ? RP have napped your 40/1 shot vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 38 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: RP have napped your 40/1 shot C'mon the beauty !!!?? Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 18 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 1210 thirsk Highjacked 8.0 8/1 3/1 no value Billy wedge 7.3 9/1 6/1 no value Confrontational 7.0 9/1 10/1 value bet Highland acclaim 6.7 Tricky little race ....I can narrow to these 4 but then its anyones....I think I'll go for jockeys...highjacked has Danny tudhope on ...always a strong one .....and I'll take a chance on confrontational with Rossa ryan who seems to be riding well currently and bet365 are offering a generous 10/1 !! ..pp 11/2 Highjacked 10pt win 3/1 Confrontational 5pt ew 10/1 bet365 Forgot all about this race ...1st and 2nd .....collect off both Villa Chris, vikki37 and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Forgot all about this race ...1st and 2nd .....collect off both forecast again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Wildgarden said: forecast again? Yeah ...but it doesnt win when I back it haha ?? BBBC, Wildgarden and vikki37 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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