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Well if your going to have a go at value then you have to attempt the grand national ....to even finish top 8 of 40 runners is an achievement in itself so I've rated the race fully ....no trends ....all 40 runners ....I'll try and narrow down later today but heres the raw ratings 

Bristol de mai  9.6 

Kimbetlite candy 9.3

The storyteller  9.3 

Yala enki 9.1 

Mister malarkey 9.1 

Vieux lion rouge 8.5 

Cloth cap 8.5 

Magic of light 8.2 

Chris dream 8.0 

I'd be shocked if 2 or 3 of those dont finish top 6 but I'll apply the strongest trends I have later to try and narrow it to 2 or 3really strong bets 

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Mother earth wins 10/1 !!....that better  Back up to +511.00

Rough Tide ........ WON 40/1 think I'll retire now ....... 😃

One of the questions I've seen most on forums is how do you determine value ????.....so let's try an value experiment and see how it goes .... First of all you need to decided what is important a

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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Well if your going to have a go at value then you have to attempt the grand national ....to even finish top 8 of 40 runners is an achievement in itself so I've rated the race fully ....no trends ....all 40 runners ....I'll try and narrow down later today but heres the raw ratings 

Bristol de mai  9.6 

Kimbetlite candy 9.3

The storyteller  9.3 

Yala enki 9.1 

Mister malarkey 9.1 

Vieux lion rouge 8.5 

Cloth cap 8.5 

Magic of light 8.2 

Chris dream 8.0 

I'd be shocked if 2 or 3 of those dont finish top 6 but I'll apply the strongest trends I have later to try and narrow it to 2 or 3really strong bets 

Apply the killer stat ....last 20 raced in same grade or were stepping up 1 or 2 grades which fits with the improving lightly raced profile ....applying this leaves 4 horses 

Cloth cap .....already backed nice bets 

Mister malarkey ...already backed nice bets ew 

Kimbetlite candy  12/1 

Vieux lion rouge   50/1 

And that's it ....vieux lion is 12 so although decent ew material I think for the win hes too old ......so I just need to have a,sizeable ew on kimberlite and that's my team ready for battle ....

 

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Aintree 4.05 Hunter Chase 

Billaway 8.7, 11/4(13/1) no value 5th

Cat Tiger 7.75, 11/2(17/1) no value 3rd

Some Man 7.5, 7/1(18/1) no value 11th

Captain Cattistock 7.25, 50/1(19/1) value non runner 

Dashing Perk 7.05, 11/1(20/1) fell

Can see Billaway being the one to beat anyway but very short for such a big field . Paying 6 places so will play Captain ew with it being such a huge price. 

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4.40 Aintree 

Destrier 7.6, 9/2(15/1) no value 

Jan Maat 7.5, 14/1(15/1) no value 

Gaelik Coast 7.5, 16/1(15/1) value 

Edituer Du Gite 7.45, 9/1(15/1) no value won 

Frero Banrou 7.3, 9/1(16/1) no value 4th 

Very tight race regarding ratings. There’s a few outside the top 5 who are closely matched . 

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12 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

4.40 Aintree 

Destrier 7.6, 9/2(15/1) no value 

Jan Maat 7.5, 14/1(15/1) no value 

Gaelik Coast 7.5, 16/1(15/1) value 

Edituer Du Gite 7.45, 9/1(15/1) no value 

Frero Banrou 7.3, 9/1(16/1) no value 

Very tight race regarding ratings. There’s a few outside the top 5 who are closely matched . 

Jaan Maat has become a value bet . I’ll use my money back off Captain Cattistock and play him ew . Form is very patchy but was travelling well and in with a chance when falling two out two runs back . Henry De Bromhead/Rachel Blackmore combo but both are very cold at the moment . 
 

 

Jaan Maat 18/1 ew 

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18 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Aintree 4.05 Hunter Chase 

Billaway 8.7, 11/4(13/1) no value 5th

Cat Tiger 7.75, 11/2(17/1) no value 3rd

Some Man 7.5, 7/1(18/1) no value 11th

Captain Cattistock 7.25, 50/1(19/1) value non runner 

Dashing Perk 7.05, 11/1(20/1) fell

Can see Billaway being the one to beat anyway but very short for such a big field . Paying 6 places so will play Captain ew with it being such a huge price. 

66/1 the winner was . Top rated stayed on very strong after struggling much of the way. 

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On 4/6/2021 at 8:35 PM, richard-westwood said:

Aintree thurs redrum chase 440

The king of may  8.1 25/1 

Dostal phil 7.0. 12/1 

Editeur du gite 6.6 9/1 

Day 1 of the aintree festival ...some good priced horses in top 3 ...so I'll try 3x 10pt wins 

 

1st and 3rd....good runs 100pts returned 

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18 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

4.40 Aintree 

Destrier 7.6, 9/2(15/1) no value 

Jan Maat 7.5, 14/1(15/1) no value 

Gaelik Coast 7.5, 16/1(15/1) value 

Edituer Du Gite 7.45, 9/1(15/1) no value won 

Frero Banrou 7.3, 9/1(16/1) no value 4th 

Very tight race regarding ratings. There’s a few outside the top 5 who are closely matched . 

Top 3 nowhere

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3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Very close on that 4th rated ....I gave him a small bonus because he won so well last time but I probably should have given him more 

Knew he was close on ratings but didn’t realise how close until I checked. Yes he won from the front lto I think .Cracking run and weren’t stopping was he. 

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145 ain't 

Kateson 8.8. 14/1 55.0 outstanding value 

Armour de nuit 8.4 15/1 40.0. Outstanding value 

Wilde about oscar 8.4 15/1 11.0 no value 

Edward stone 7.9 16/1 9/1 no value 

Chapmanshyoe  7.5 17/1 42.0 outstanding value 

West to bridge 7.3 18/1 80.0 ..extreme value 

Lots in with chances and loads of value on offer  .. .its hard to know which horses to back but I cant not back the top 2 at huge prices ......its close between Wilde about oscar who has run some good races but has top weight ....exwardstone was 3 lengths down in county hurdle and that's excellent form but this is 3f further and hes up a further 1lb so is that too much ......chapmanshype was looking a progressive horse but has had along layoff which wont help but big price ...west to the bridge is huge price and could place ....I think I'm going to take a risk with Edward stone ...tge cheltenham form looks hot and hope he can last home ....tough race 

Kateson 10pt win 55.0 

Amour de nuit  10pt win 40.0 

Edward stone 10pt win 9/1 

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1.45 Aintree 

Dans Le Vent 7.55, 14/1(16/1) no value 2nd

Whatsupwithyou 7.45, 16/1(16/1) correct odds

Wilde About Oscar 7.25, 15/2(18/1) no value 

Amour De Nuit 7.2, 28/1(18/1) value 

Not sure what the bet is yet. 3rd is carrying top weight. 1st and 4th don’t look like they have much room regarding their handicap mark. I think second rated looks the bet and could improve the most and is 5Ibs lower than his last run at the Cheltenham festival where he placed (5Ibs claimer).

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4.05 Aintree 

Modus 7.95, 12/1(19/1) no value 

Robin Des Foret 7.45, 22/1(21/1) value 

Sir Jack Yeats 7.35, 25/1(21/1) value 5th

Lust For Glory 7.15, 33/1(22/1) value 

Livelovelaugh 7, 13/2(22/1) no value won 

Modus isn’t value but I really like the look of him. He’s handled the fences before which is a plus , same as Sir Jack Yeats . Robin Des Foret is a Mullins horse and yard are in form and jockey also. Livelovelaugh too short. 
 

Modus 12/1 ew 

Sir Jack Yeats 25/1 ew 

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405 ain't

Modus  7.3 

Ibleo  7.1 

Robin de foret 6.9

Kauto Riko 6.9 

Senior citizen 6.8

Morning vicar  6.8 

Two for gold   6.8 

Carribean boy   6.8 

Incredibly competitive race....this normally goes to a fresh horse so I don't like modus off over 100 days ...you usually want a horse that has had 3 to 4 runs under their belt so arrive at peak fitness so that leaves 

Senior citizen 16.5 

Morning vicar 16.5 

Carribean boy 9.6 

I'll try 3 x10pt wins 

 

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20 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

405 ain't

Modus  7.3 

Ibleo  7.1 

Robin de foret 6.9

Kauto Riko 6.9 

Senior citizen 6.8

Morning vicar  6.8 

Two for gold   6.8 

Carribean boy   6.8 

Incredibly competitive race....this normally goes to a fresh horse so I don't like modus off over 100 days ...you usually want a horse that has had 3 to 4 runs under their belt so arrive at peak fitness so that leaves 

Senior citizen 16.5 

Morning vicar 16.5 

Carribean boy 9.6 

I'll try 3 x10pt wins 

 

Modus has a superb record when fresh. 

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3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I think he has a good chance of course but when I looked at the stats I think 10/11 had run within 35 days so I've just picked fresher horses ....he could still win theres nothing in it on ratings and his,aintree experience is a big plus 

And he’s 11. Think the stats say 10 and younger do the best . Should get a run for my money with him anyway. It’s an almighty race in terms of numbers. 

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145 aintree saturday 

Uknowwhatimeanharry 8.3

Polish   8.3 

Stoney mountain 8.2 

Southfield harvest  7 9 

Champagne platinum 7.9 

Uknow is 13 but could sneak a place at a decent price currently around 33 so good value ..stoney mountain has been off 129 days ...so I'm going to side with the more recent runners polish at 16.5 ....southfield harvest 12.5 ...and champagne platinum 11.0 .....3x 10pt wins ...tough race 

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19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

145 ain't 

Kateson 8.8. 14/1 55.0 outstanding value 

Armour de nuit 8.4 15/1 40.0. Outstanding value 

Wilde about oscar 8.4 15/1 11.0 no value 

Edward stone 7.9 16/1 9/1 no value 

Chapmanshyoe  7.5 17/1 42.0 outstanding value 

West to bridge 7.3 18/1 80.0 ..extreme value 

Lots in with chances and loads of value on offer  .. .its hard to know which horses to back but I cant not back the top 2 at huge prices ......its close between Wilde about oscar who has run some good races but has top weight ....exwardstone was 3 lengths down in county hurdle and that's excellent form but this is 3f further and hes up a further 1lb so is that too much ......chapmanshype was looking a progressive horse but has had along layoff which wont help but big price ...west to the bridge is huge price and could place ....I think I'm going to take a risk with Edward stone ...tge cheltenham form looks hot and hope he can last home ....tough race 

Kateson 10pt win 55.0 

Amour de nuit  10pt win 40.0 

Edward stone 10pt win 9/1 

2nd and 3rd ....gutted ...almost a huge win 

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18 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

1.45 Aintree 

Dans Le Vent 7.55, 14/1(16/1) no value 2nd

Whatsupwithyou 7.45, 16/1(16/1) correct odds

Wilde About Oscar 7.25, 15/2(18/1) no value 

Amour De Nuit 7.2, 28/1(18/1) value 

Not sure what the bet is yet. 3rd is carrying top weight. 1st and 4th don’t look like they have much room regarding their handicap mark. I think second rated looks the bet and could improve the most and is 5Ibs lower than his last run at the Cheltenham festival where he placed (5Ibs claimer).

Top rated beaten by two lengths. I didn’t have it, as I went with second rated who came nowhere but for such a big field I’m happy with that .

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23 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

145 aintree saturday 

Uknowwhatimeanharry 8.3

Polish   8.3 

Stoney mountain 8.2 

Southfield harvest  7 9 

Champagne platinum 7.9 

Uknow is 13 but could sneak a place at a decent price currently around 33 so good value ..stoney mountain has been off 129 days ...so I'm going to side with the more recent runners polish at 16.5 ....southfield harvest 12.5 ...and champagne platinum 11.0 .....3x 10pt wins ...tough race 

Unowhatimeanharry 7.5

Vision Des Flos 7.3

Stoney Mountain 7 

Champagne Platinum 6.65

Polish 6.4 

 

Stoney runs well fresh and I thought he was a good hurdler before he went chasing which didn’t work out. 

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12 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Unowhatimeanharry 7.5

Vision Des Flos 7.3

Stoney Mountain 7 

Champagne Platinum 6.65

Polish 6.4 

 

Stoney runs well fresh and I thought he was a good hurdler before he went chasing which didn’t work out. 

I was stuck on who to back .....have got no trends so just went with my gut .......I shoukd have gone ew though .....I'm going to go ew from now on cos loads place and missing out on place money all the time lol .... yes hes much better hurdler ...shoukd run better 

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9 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I was stuck on who to back .....have got no trends so just went with my gut .......I shoukd have gone ew though .....I'm going to go ew from now on cos loads place and missing out on place money all the time lol .... yes hes much better hurdler ...shoukd run better 

I think ew is a must if the price is right in these big festival handicaps. They pay a lot of places too. Unowhatimeanharry is getting on which puts me off. He’s a pound higher than his last win 3 runs back but he only just held on there in a class 2, and this is a grade 3, so two classes above . Vision Des Flos not in great form at all. Really like the look of Stoney Mountain here, so I think that will be the bet for me . 

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