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4 minutes ago, Trotter said:

I know what you mean .... I follow what you're saying

My fields are not equal because there's a different amount of points available within each field ......... for example 'Form' accounts for 55% of the total available points

and it is flexible in that I can adjust the number of points available within each field............ or indeed add new fields as things occur to me going along

Basically I'm just awarding different number of points to each field whereas you are awarding different percentages to each field ?

We're both ranking the various factors but just in a different way!

 

 

 

Yes I can see ....well if it works for you then who cares how you do it....its the end result that counts 🤣

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Rough Tide ........ WON 40/1 think I'll retire now ....... 😃

One of the questions I've seen most on forums is how do you determine value ????.....so let's try an value experiment and see how it goes .... First of all you need to decided what is important a

Having been making my own tissue prices for over 35 years for many of the leading bookmakers I thought I would share my strategy and thoughts. As to any serious punter the ability to be able to put yo

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8 hours ago, Trotter said:

Cheers richard ....... interesting discussion!

good luck ........ 👍

Yeah weve gone from barely value to everyone hunting for value bets in a few days ....its brilliant ...I can see big things happening in this thread....I'm so looking forward to some big races later on ....I really think it will throw up some good winners long term ....it already has .......I will try and do a spreadsheet in the next month or two to automate the whole process and give those who struggle with the maths a chance to use too but I'm swamped at work with this lockdown currently ....no staff due to self isolating etc .....but its top of my to do list now ....especially with hopefully chelt fest on the way if it goes ahead....would be a handy thing to have then I'm sure especially if we can do it in a 1/3 of the time!!

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As richard said earlier in the thread you should be mainly looking at the horses who are at the top end of your ratings

I mean, you might have a horse which you've assessed at 33/1 and you can get 66/1 ...... looks terrific 'value' but it's still a 33/1 in your estimation

So with that in mind and with a non runner being my choice in the race I did last night .... here's my odds for my top rated 3 in a couple of races at Chelmsford with current bet365 odds

7.00

14 points - Old News - my odds 16/5 - current odds 13/2 (Win)
8 points - Casaruan - my odds 13/2 - current odds 10/1 (EW)
7 points - Strawberry Jack - my odds 8/1 - current odds 8/1

8.00

13 points - No Nay Bella - my odds 13/5 - current odds 3/1 (Win)
11 points - Arij - my odds 10/3 - current odds 6/4
10 points - Numberoneson - my odds 18/5 - current odds 14/1 (EW if no NR)

In the 7.00 the top two look decent value and Strawberry Jack is priced about right

In the 8.00 Arij looks poor value, No Nay Bella is about right and should be favourite, Numberoneson is an EW shot but could be scuppered by a non runner (dead 8 in)

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If anyone wants to try this spreadsheet out p.m me your email and I'll try and transfer from onedrive 

Only 14 horses .....top 5 fields on the left are 5 sections to fill in your percentages ....it is based on using 5 sections so for this first sheet you need to fill them all in 

14 horses underneath each with 5 score sections to fill in ....once you've done that the sheet should automatically calculate the value percentage.....if your only doing a 12 horse race insert 0 in the fields your not using ....it might alter the score very slightly but in tests it's near as dammit.....if you find any bugs let me know ....Ive tried to iron most of them out 

Edited by richard-westwood
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Glen Cocco 18 , 10/1 (5/1-9/2)

Strawberry Jack 17, 13/2 (5/1)

Casaruan 15, 17/2 (6/1)

Johnny Reb 14, 13/2 (13/2)

Old News 13, 13/2 (7/1)

 

These are my top 5 for the 7.00 at Chelmsford . The top 3 offer decent value especially top rated Glen Cocco. You’ll notice his recent form isn’t good but he’s dropped to a mark in which he’s won off higher in the past. It’s basically rough ratings which need touching up on, but I’m lacking the time . Horses 4,5 I’d say bookies have them spot on.  My price in brackets 

Edited by Villa Chris
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13 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

Rated 630 Chelmsford with my own take... Top two look like no value.

Screenshot_20210114-050415~2.png

Since last night both top odds horses river and golden have moved out. My early rating has shown some promise! Took 20-1 on junoescue Ew. Now 12-1 or less.

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47 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Glen Cocco 18 , 10/1 (5/1-9/2)

Strawberry Jack 17, 13/2 (5/1)

Casaruan 15, 17/2 (6/1)

Johnny Reb 14, 13/2 (13/2)

Old News 13, 13/2 (7/1)

 

These are my top 5 for the 7.00 at Chelmsford . The top 3 offer decent value especially top rated Glen Cocco. You’ll notice his recent form isn’t good but he’s dropped to a mark in which he’s won off higher in the past. It’s basically rough ratings which need touching up on, but I’m lacking the time . Horses 4,5 I’d say bookies have them spot on.  My price in brackets 

Top rated Glen Coco beaten by a neck. Not sure if that means I’ve rated it well because the others below him didn’t threaten, so may have been luck . 

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2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

If anyone wants to try this spreadsheet out p.m me your email and I'll try and transfer from onedrive 

Only 14 horses .....top 5 fields on the left are 5 sections to fill in your percentages ....it is based on using 5 sections so for this first sheet you need to fill them all in 

14 horses underneath each with 5 score sections to fill in ....once you've done that the sheet should automatically calculate the value percentage.....if your only doing a 12 horse race insert 0 in the fields your not using ....it might alter the score very slightly but in tests it's near as dammit.....if you find any bugs let me know ....Ive tried to iron most of them out 

Does it transfer to notepad and pen 😉

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1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

410 Newcastle rated. Very close race! Global homour looks value atm 18.5 on exchange which I've taken. Which Richard also had - hopefully a sign!Screenshot_20210114-210322.thumb.png.eb30e0545352f29d99fbbdb262c28294.png

Yes rheres seems a lot of value in that horse ....there are 4 or 5 in with chances but hes definately overpriced that's pretty obvious....especially as hes flagged on both of ours ...interesting race

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1.25 ling Saturday 

                           Odds       avail 

Fox power     10/1             4/1  no value 

Intuitive         11/2        4/1:  no value 

Crownthirpe    9/2      9/2    value 

Corazon espinado   11/2   9/2   no value 

Papa stout           6/1        13/2    value 

Lord rap            7/1      11/2     no value 

Overall      only 1 bookie priced up so far ......but currently the 9/2 on criwnthorpe looks value .....or better later ??.......and the 13/2 on papa stour......value at 6/1 + .......will update later when prices come on line 

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35 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

1.25 ling Saturday 

                           Odds       avail 

Fox power     10/1             4/1  no value 

Intuitive         11/2        4/1:  no value 

Crownthirpe    9/2      9/2    value 

Corazon espinado   11/2   9/2   no value 

Papa stout           6/1        13/2    value 

Lord rap            7/1      11/2     no value 

Overall      only 1 bookie priced up so far ......but currently the 9/2 on criwnthorpe looks value .....or better later ??.......and the 13/2 on papa stour......value at 6/1 + .......will update later when prices come on line 

Look for better value race or keep eye on prices see if some become value?

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7 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

Look for better value race or keep eye on prices see if some become value?

The prices are ok but I think betfair of another bookie might offer better later ......form ratings are :

crown  9.2

corazon  7.8

Intuitive 7.7

papa stour  7.2 

so crownthorpe looks a strong bet and is a value price ....exactly what we are looking for 

papa stour is more an ew bet at 6/1+ 

I am looking at other races too .....will probably rate 1 or 2 more as well 

Edited by richard-westwood
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310 ling saturday 

                   Val  Odds     avail 

Huuraz      10/1             8/1 novalue

Will to win    10/1     10/1  inflated 

Top breeze    10/1      7/1   novalue

Total commit   5/1    7/2  novalue 

Recon mission   9/1    100/30 poorvalue

Kondratiev  wave    9/1     14/1   value 

Sun power    8/1    7/2    poor value 

Stake  acclaim   13/1    20/1   inflated 

Count otto     7/1      9/1     good value 

Deputies    13/1     25/1      inflated 

 

Currently   ....count otto ew is the value bet    .......with kondratiev wave 2nd best ..count otto is 1.3pts ahead of kondratiev on ratings .. but there is a strong fav in total commitment on form so I'll be going ew on count otto .....check prices later to see if can get better than 9 

 

Edited by richard-westwood
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4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

The prices are ok but I think betfair of another bookie might offer better later ......form ratings are :

crown  9.2

corazon  7.8

Intuitive 7.7

papa stour  7.2 

so crownthorpe looks a strong bet and is a value price ....exactly what we are looking for 

papa stour is more an ew bet at 6/1+ 

I am looking at other races too .....will probably rate 1 or 2 more as well 

 

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

310 ling saturday 

                   Val  Odds     avail 

Huuraz      10/1             8/1 novalue

Will to win    10/1     10/1  inflated 

Top breeze    10/1      7/1   novalue

Total commit   5/1    7/2  novalue 

Recon mission   9/1    100/30 poorvalue

Kondratiev  wave    9/1     14/1   value 

Sun power    8/1    7/2    poor value 

Stake  acclaim   13/1    20/1   inflated 

Count otto     7/1      9/1     good value 

Deputies    13/1     25/1      inflated 

 

Currently   ....count otto ew is the value bet    .......with kondratiev wave 2nd best ..count otto is 1.3pts ahead of kondratiev on ratings .. but there is a strong fav in total commitment on form so I'll be going ew on count otto .....check prices later to see if can get better than 9 

 

I'll back criwnthorpe 10pt win 9/2 bet365

Papa stour 5pt ew 13/2 bet365 

Count otto 10pt ew 10/1 bet365 

 

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