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Saturday eider chase 

Big river  7.7 13/2 7/1 value 

Crossley tender  6.8 8/1 12/1 good value 

Salty boy  6.7 

I've omitted salty boy because hes never won a race over chase so doesnt have the experience for me .....top 2 look fair ew value in a really tough race so are as good as any  ...I'll play 

 

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Mother earth wins 10/1 !!....that better  Back up to +511.00

Rough Tide ........ WON 40/1 think I'll retire now ....... 😃

Good ting backed into 9/2 fav and wins ...iesha backed into 7 and finishes 3rd ......they are not always going to win but its pretty obvious it's doing a good job of measuring the value and  the rest

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7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Saturday eider chase 

Big river  7.7 13/2 7/1 value 

Crossley tender  6.8 8/1 12/1 good value 

Salty boy  6.7 

I've omitted salty boy because hes never won a race over chase so doesnt have the experience for me .....top 2 look fair ew value in a really tough race so are as good as any  ...I'll play 

 

Good to see big river up there thats the one i think has a cracking e/w shot  some bookies going 4 places skybet going 5

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1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

Yeah ...if you forgive him that last race where he seemed to overheat before the race...then he has to have a good chance with conditions to suit 

Yeah that is a bit of a worry seemed to have overheated  a few time in the past  so not a one off  fingers crossed.

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Close brothers hcap saturday kempton 

Al dancer  7.7 12/1 7/1 poor value 

Clondaw castle  7.3  13/1 9/1 poor value 

Aso   6.9 14/1 20/1 good value 

Erik le rouge 6.8 14/1 25/1 excellent value 

Slate house  6 7 15/1 14/1 no value 

Double shuffle 6.7 15/1 10/1 no value 

Black corton 6.7 15/1 10/1 no value 

As youd expect an ultra competitive hcap ...... tends to go to a younger horse with older horses 10 + fairing badly so that scrubs black corton ..aso ....and double shuffle 

Also you need to be in form with poor recent run horses fairing badly so that loses al dancer and Erik le rouge 

That leaves clondaw castle and  slate house .. .I'm happy with those 2 ew  in a difficult race 

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Eider Chase Newcastle 

Sams Adventure 7.2, 4/1(9/1) no value won 

Cross park 7.1, 5/1(9/1) no value pu

Crossley Tender 6.9, 9/1(9/1-10/1)about right 2nd 

Big River 6.4, 6/1(10/1) no value pu 

Nothing really jumping out at me here. Got to be an ew race and Crossley Tender looks the bet .

5 points ew Crossley Tender 9/1

Edited by Villa Chris
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3.35 Kempton 

Double Shuffle 8.45, 10/1(13/1) no value 

Cap Du Nord 8.2, 5/1(13/1-14/1) no value 

The Butcher Said 8.15, 11/1(14/1) no value 

Slate House 7.75, 12/1(15/1)  no value 

Black Corton 7.65, 9/1(15/1) no value 

not much value but I’ll play top rated and  The Butcher Said ew . I’m glad The Butcher Said rated highly because I think he’s set up to win a nice pot and this could be it. 
 

Double Shuffle 10/1 5 points ew 

The Butcher Said 11/1 5 points ew 

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The form of Double Shuffles last win has turned out strong. 
 

Second went on to finish second again 

Third won next time up 

Fifth went on to finish second 

Sixth won next time up 

He’s 5Ibs higher now but he’s a proper Kempton horse and will enjoy good ground . 

 

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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

3.35 Kempton 

Double Shuffle 8.45, 10/1(13/1) no value 

Cap Du Nord 8.2, 5/1(13/1-14/1) no value 

The Butcher Said 8.15, 11/1(14/1) no value 

Slate House 7.75, 12/1(15/1)  no value 

Black Corton 7.65, 9/1(15/1) no value 

not much value but I’ll play top rated and  The Butcher Said ew . I’m glad The Butcher Said rated highly because I think he’s set up to win a nice pot and this could be it. 
 

Double Shuffle 10/1 5 points ew 

The Butcher Said 11/1 5 points ew 

My main fancy Double Shuffle price is tight imo  but i think it will drift  i want better than 12's.  I've had a small e/w bet on Fingersontheswitch at 12's again thats tight will  back again if drifts i also  like a 33/1  outsider  i think there is plenty more  improvement to come and thats jon jo's Young Wolf nice one for you chris being a villa fan!

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49 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

The form of Double Shuffles last win has turned out strong. 
 

Second went on to finish second again 

Third won next time up 

Fifth went on to finish second 

Sixth won next time up 

He’s 5Ibs higher now but he’s a proper Kempton horse and will enjoy good ground . 

 

Just seen this i agree  but seems to be drifting hopefully get a better e/w way price.

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25 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

My main fancy Double Shuffle price is tight imo  but i think it will drift  i want better than 12's.  I've had a small e/w bet on Fingersontheswitch at 12's again thats tight will  back again if drifts i also  like a 33/1  outsider  i think there is plenty more  improvement to come and thats jon jo's Young Wolf nice one for you chris being a villa fan!

Young Wolf rated up quite well. Like a few of them he’ll appreciate the good ground . Tends to do his winning in small fiends though, although he’s ran well enough in larger fields. Can see Double Shuffle going off at 8/1-9/1. 

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Graded race practice race 

3.00 kemp 

Atholl street 10.0.

Calico  8.5 

Lunar sovereign  8.3 

Just getting some rating practice in for non hcaps ....atholl street won very very easily last time and looks classy so should be hard to beat but calico is an improver and could give him a race if he doesnt fire ....atholl street to win easily 

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On 2/26/2021 at 2:52 PM, Villa Chris said:

Eider Chase Newcastle 

Sams Adventure 7.2, 4/1(9/1) no value 

Cross park 7.1, 5/1(9/1) no value 

Crossley Tender 6.9, 9/1(9/1-10/1)about right 

Big River 6.4, 6/1(10/1) no value 

Nothing really jumping out at me here. Got to be an ew race and Crossley Tender looks the bet .

5 points ew Crossley Tender 9/1

Nice rating 

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On 2/26/2021 at 2:33 PM, richard-westwood said:

Close brothers hcap saturday kempton 

Al dancer  7.7 12/1 7/1 poor value 

Clondaw castle  7.3  13/1 9/1 poor value 

Aso   6.9 14/1 20/1 good value 

Erik le rouge 6.8 14/1 25/1 excellent value 

Slate house  6 7 15/1 14/1 no value 

Double shuffle 6.7 15/1 10/1 no value 

Black corton 6.7 15/1 10/1 no value 

As youd expect an ultra competitive hcap ...... tends to go to a younger horse with older horses 10 + fairing badly so that scrubs black corton ..aso ....and double shuffle 

Also you need to be in form with poor recent run horses fairing badly so that loses al dancer and Erik le rouge 

That leaves clondaw castle and  slate house .. .I'm happy with those 2 ew  in a difficult race 

Clondaw castle wins .....with the value bet erik le rouge 2nd ....really happy with that in such a difficult race ...aso was a none runner so they were 2nd and 3rd rated 

Edited by richard-westwood
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On 2/26/2021 at 3:51 PM, Villa Chris said:

3.35 Kempton 

Double Shuffle 8.45, 10/1(13/1) no value 

Cap Du Nord 8.2, 5/1(13/1-14/1) no value 

The Butcher Said 8.15, 11/1(14/1) no value 

Slate House 7.75, 12/1(15/1)  no value 

Black Corton 7.65, 9/1(15/1) no value 

not much value but I’ll play top rated and  The Butcher Said ew . I’m glad The Butcher Said rated highly because I think he’s set up to win a nice pot and this could be it. 
 

Double Shuffle 10/1 5 points ew 

The Butcher Said 11/1 5 points ew 

Ew money on Double Shuffle but the ratings dismissed the  up and coming horses that tend to run well in this when upped in distance. As they say 3m at Kempton is like going 2.5 elsewhere. I’ll try and learn from that mistake 

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On 2/26/2021 at 2:52 PM, Villa Chris said:

Eider Chase Newcastle 

Sams Adventure 7.2, 4/1(9/1) no value won 

Cross park 7.1, 5/1(9/1) no value pu

Crossley Tender 6.9, 9/1(9/1-10/1)about right 2nd 

Big River 6.4, 6/1(10/1) no value pu 

Nothing really jumping out at me here. Got to be an ew race and Crossley Tender looks the bet .

5 points ew Crossley Tender 9/1

This went better 

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36 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

2nd rated wins wasn't value so didn't follow sadly lol cathedans fury ran decent race maybe put off slightly at the end. One to watch!

Hi all, 

Just caught up on this thread some really interesting reading, could I be really cheeky and look at your data tables for the races which have produced your ratings? Intrigued to how you calculate etc. My background is research (unfortunately Ipsos Mori nothing to do with horses). Can you share I'd love to analyse it? Rosslloyd43@gmail.com 

Edited by LLOYDY
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Getting as much big race practice as I can on my days off so I'm ready ...

5.00 naas 20 runners 

You say nothing 7.4 499 8/1 15/2 no value 

Aaron's day  6.4 476 14/1 2/1 poor value 

Bua boy 6.3 451 14/1 16/1 value bet

No memory 6.3 420 14/1 25/1 good value 

Bydesametoken 6.3 484 14/1 14/1 value 

Moonlight glory 6.2 430 14/1 14/1 value 

Combination of mine and ratings leaves 

You say nothing 15/2  499

Aaron's day  2/1 476 6.4

Bydesametoken 14/1 6.3 484 

 

I'll try ew bets you say nothing and bytgesametokens 6places with sky 

And 6 x1pt forecasts 

 

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Fontwell 3.10 Grade 2

McFabulous 9, 4/5(7/2) no value 2nd 

Brewing’ upastorm 7.75, 5/2(4/1-9/2) no value won 

Reserve Tank 7, 22/1(9/2-5/1) value 

Reserve Tank has some excellent hurdle form from his hurdling days. Comes back to this sphere from chasing and has been off for a bit now so probably best watched. The favourite looks solid anyway and should win. Practise ratings

Edited by Villa Chris
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17 hours ago, LLOYDY said:

Hi all, 

Just caught up on this thread some really interesting reading, could I be really cheeky and look at your data tables for the races which have produced your ratings? Intrigued to how you calculate etc. My background is research (unfortunately Ipsos Mori nothing to do with horses). Can you share I'd love to analyse it? Rosslloyd43@gmail.com 

Same as Richards but I have video bonus for where horse unlucky or raced well at certain point in race and track bonuses for draws and long trend bonuses or deduction like the minus 15% to heavy and soft going to heavy horses.

Edited by Wildgarden
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