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Rough Tide ........ WON 40/1 think I'll retire now .......¬†ūüėÉ

One of the questions I've seen most on forums is how do you determine value ????.....so let's try an value experiment and see how it goes .... First of all you need to decided what is important a

Good ting backed into 9/2 fav and wins ...iesha backed into 7 and finishes 3rd ......they are not always going to win but its pretty obvious it's doing a good job of measuring the value and  the rest

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17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

150 newb sunday

Dell arca  8.8  420 8/1 28/1 excellent value 

Southfield harvest 7.7 380 10/1 4/1 poor value 

Everglow   7.5 400 12/1 16/1 value 

Polish   7.4 404 13/1 25/1 excellent value 

Limited reserve  7.2 380 13/1 25/1 excellent value 

Dunno what the hell has gone on here ......huge prices on offer on dell arca ....polish and everglow .....I'll try ew on all 3 ......if dell arca wins now I'll run for the hills lol 

Nice one Richard 

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21 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

1.50 Newbury (16 runners)

Southfield Harvest 7.75, 4/1(9/1) no value 3rd 

Vive Le Roi 7.4, 25/1(10/1) value 6th

Dell Arca 7.25, 18/1(10/1) value 

Sirobbie 6.25, 14/1(11/1) value 

Tricky race where a few younger horses could quite easily run well upped in distance. Top rated looks a strong bet but skinny odds. Dell Arca looks a touch high on his mark and isn’t getting any younger. I think Vive still has the ability to win off 130 and looks a cracking ew play. 
 

 

Ew money on Vive 

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18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

150 newb sunday

Dell arca  8.8  420 8/1 28/1 excellent value 

Southfield harvest 7.7 380 10/1 4/1 poor value 

Everglow   7.5 400 12/1 16/1 value 

Polish   7.4 404 13/1 25/1 excellent value 

Limited reserve  7.2 380 13/1 25/1 excellent value 

Dunno what the hell has gone on here ......huge prices on offer on dell arca ....polish and everglow .....I'll try ew on all 3 ......if dell arca wins now I'll run for the hills lol 

Top Stuff Richard¬†ūüĎć

Edited by Tedthewolf
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18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

150 newb sunday

Dell arca  8.8  420 8/1 28/1 excellent value 

Southfield harvest 7.7 380 10/1 4/1 poor value 

Everglow   7.5 400 12/1 16/1 value 

Polish   7.4 404 13/1 25/1 excellent value 

Limited reserve  7.2 380 13/1 25/1 excellent value 

Dunno what the hell has gone on here ......huge prices on offer on dell arca ....polish and everglow .....I'll try ew on all 3 ......if dell arca wins now I'll run for the hills lol 

Stuck at work so that's a nice surprise .....definately perked me up especially as I've had 5 ew at 25/1 .....its finding the value at least so it definately  works lol 

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22 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Bet fair Hurdle Newbury 3.35

Shakem Up Arry 8.5, 16/1(17/1) Not far off 8th

Buzz 8.2, 10/1(18/1) no value 5th

Milkwood 7.5, 12/1(20/1) no value 11th

Mister Coffey 7.5, 17/2(20/1) no value 7th

For Pleasure 7.5, 18/1(20/1) no value 14th

Night Edition 7.45, 28/1(20/1) value 15th

Soaring Glory 7.2, 6/1(21/1) no value won 

 

Top rated looks a good bet. Buzz seems a very classy horse. Night Edition looks a good bet . I’ll play all 3 ew .

Ew money off buzz . Shakem Up Arry just missing out on place. 

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540 wolves 

Accrington Stanley 7.8 8/1 13/2 no value 

Ennaitchess 7.8 8/1 13/2 no value 

Nozieres   7.3   12/1 10/1 no value 

Split eleven  7.2  13/1 9/2 poor value 

Accrington Stanley hated southwell last time so I'm hoping a return to tapeta will revive him .... ew bet 

 

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2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

540 wolves 

Accrington Stanley 7.8 8/1 13/2 no value 

Ennaitchess 7.8 8/1 13/2 no value 

Nozieres   7.3   12/1 10/1 no value 

Split eleven  7.2  13/1 9/2 poor value 

Accrington Stanley hated southwell last time so I'm hoping a return to tapeta will revive him .... ew bet 

 

Unlucky there but nicely rated 

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3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

540 wolves 

Accrington Stanley 7.8 8/1 13/2 no value 

Ennaitchess 7.8 8/1 13/2 no value 

Nozieres   7.3   12/1 10/1 no value 

Split eleven  7.2  13/1 9/2 poor value 

Accrington Stanley hated southwell last time so I'm hoping a return to tapeta will revive him .... ew bet 

 

I somehow had NHS moderate value 

Screenshot_20210222-172445~2.png

Edited by Wildgarden
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640 newc tues 

Lord of the lodge 9.5 13/2 11/1 good value 

Revolutionise 7.6 9/1 6/1 no value

Sanaadh 7.6  9/1 9/2 no value 

Diocles of Rome 7.2 10/1 5/1 poor value 

Strange rating .....revolutionise beat lord of the lodge last time but today's rating suggests he might be capable of turning that around .....I'll back revolutionise and lord....should be an interesting race 

 

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20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

640 newc tues 

Lord of the lodge 9.5 13/2 11/1 good value 

Revolutionise 7.6 9/1 6/1 no value

Sanaadh 7.6  9/1 9/2 no value 

Diocles of Rome 7.2 10/1 5/1 poor value 

Strange rating .....revolutionise beat lord of the lodge last time but today's rating suggests he might be capable of turning that around .....I'll back revolutionise and lord....should be an interesting race 

 

Lord of the lodge pippen the line ....I did back him ew in the end but really pleased with that rating 

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43 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Can I ask ....How did you get tadleel so highly rated ??...he was a class 4 horse racing against class 2 .....I know he won last time but it looked a weak race compared to others ....I didnt even consider him lol ūü§£

I deducted for class still came out on top after bonus points for how well ran and that. Try not put so much emphasis on class . I only do 0.5 point deduction as history shows up in class is only slightly lower roi.in handicap. Was 2nd in July too class 2.

Edited by Wildgarden
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Picked a tough race today 

615 Kemp 

Tommy Rock 7.5 8/1 5/1 no value 

Glenn coco  7.1 17/2 11/1  value 

Espresso freddo 7.1 17/2 12/1 value 

Red jasper 7.1 17/2 14/1 good value 

Very competitive race.. any number of possibles but I like the value in red jasper and espresso freddo so I'll play those ew in an interesting race 

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26 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Picked a tough race today 

615 Kemp 

Tommy Rock 7.5 8/1 5/1 no value 

Glenn coco  7.1 17/2 11/1  value 

Espresso freddo 7.1 17/2 12/1 value 

Red jasper 7.1 17/2 14/1 good value 

Very competitive race.. any number of possibles but I like the value in red jasper and espresso freddo so I'll play those ew in an interesting race

Been following red Jasper and looks the winner but I'll rate later see what my system says lol

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4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Picked a tough race today 

615 Kemp 

Tommy Rock 7.5 8/1 5/1 no value 

Glenn coco  7.1 17/2 11/1  value 

Espresso freddo 7.1 17/2 12/1 value 

Red jasper 7.1 17/2 14/1 good value 

Very competitive race.. any number of possibles but I like the value in red jasper and espresso freddo so I'll play those ew in an interesting race 

Here is my 615 rating.

Screenshot_20210224-150230.png

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Can't do this as often as I'd like.

Southwell 19.00

Lord Oberon           17.88         11/2           7/4       No Value

Zylan                      16.27         13/2         20/1       Value

Excessable            15.60        6.75/1       11/2       No Value

Rock Sound           15.53        6.75/1       11/4      No Value

Garth Rocket         15.07          7/1          10/1      Value

Medicine Jack       14.02         15/2         12/1      Value

Alsvinder               13.86          8/1          28/1      Value

Katheefa               13.21         17/2         17/2      About Right

Much closer than the bookies have it. Lord Oberon well ahead, should win. Excessable could be the EW bet if no NR's.

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7 hours ago, Pirate53 said:

Can't do this as often as I'd like.

Southwell 19.00

Lord Oberon           17.88         11/2           7/4       No Value

Zylan                      16.27         13/2         20/1       Value

Excessable            15.60        6.75/1       11/2       No Value

Rock Sound           15.53        6.75/1       11/4      No Value

Garth Rocket         15.07          7/1          10/1      Value

Medicine Jack       14.02         15/2         12/1      Value

Alsvinder               13.86          8/1          28/1      Value

Katheefa               13.21         17/2         17/2      About Right

Much closer than the bookies have it. Lord Oberon well ahead, should win. Excessable could be the EW bet if no NR's.

Top 4 came 3rd,2nd,4th,1st. Zylan was the value!

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