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Southwell 16.45

Mukha Magic           16.70        7/2     2/1      No value

Nicks Not Wonder   15.71        4/1     9/4       No value

Arabian King            13.43       5/1     4/1       No value   

Mr Carbonator         12.96     5.25/1   8/1       Value

Be Fair                     12.38      11/2     9/1       Value

Siavash                    9.56        13/2    25/1     Value

Mukha Magic v strong, agree with Richard. Cash is down!

Don't think much of the value picks.

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Mother earth wins 10/1 !!....that better  Back up to +511.00

Rough Tide ........ WON 40/1 think I'll retire now ....... 😃

One of the questions I've seen most on forums is how do you determine value ????.....so let's try an value experiment and see how it goes .... First of all you need to decided what is important a

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8 minutes ago, Pirate53 said:

Southwell 16.45

Mukha Magic           16.70        7/2     2/1      No value

Nicks Not Wonder   15.71        4/1     9/4       No value

Arabian King            13.43       5/1     4/1       No value   

Mr Carbonator         12.96     5.25/1   8/1       Value

Be Fair                     12.38      11/2     9/1       Value

Siavash                    9.56        13/2    25/1     Value

Mukha Magic v strong, agree with Richard. Cash is down!

Don't think much of the value picks.

Dont like Nick's  not wonder as this is a very diff surface but I think mr carbonator is a good value bet and could run well 

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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

In general how many winners would you need before you are happy that a system is working and that the results are not just down to randomness ?

Well youd expect say 3 races in 10 to be won by donkeys or scratch your head races so if your averaging 6 to 7 good results in 10 then you e got something .....I'd say 20 races to be sure and your want 12 to 14 good results to be sure it's not just a good run ....by good even placed horses count ......all I'm looking for really is to string 2 or 3 good priced horses together in doubles at the festival ....2 x 16/1 is over 500pts to 2pt stakes so that's the aim for me .....if I can get placed horses consistently in the big hcap  races then the big win becomes doable .... everything im doing now is solely with that in mind ....im learning from every race I rate 

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5 hours ago, Pirate53 said:

Southwell 16.45

Mukha Magic           16.70        7/2     2/1      No value

Nicks Not Wonder   15.71        4/1     9/4       No value

Arabian King            13.43       5/1     4/1       No value   

Mr Carbonator         12.96     5.25/1   8/1       Value

Be Fair                     12.38      11/2     9/1       Value

Siavash                    9.56        13/2    25/1     Value

Mukha Magic v strong, agree with Richard. Cash is down!

Don't think much of the value picks.

Wins easy as you like! Kerrching!

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7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Only southwell on today so I'll have a play 

445 south 

Mukha magic 9.4 3/1 2/1 no value 

Mr carbonator   6.8 9/2 15/2 value 

Mukha magic looks to have strong form coming into this and should run a good race 

Mukha magic 10pt win 2/1 bet365 

 

 

7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

515 south 

Love your work 9.2 7/2 9/4 no value 

Legal reform 8.2 4/1 5/2 no value 

Iva refection 7.8 9/2 7/2 no value 

Love your work looks to have the strongest form and shoukd run a big race 

Love your work 9/4 to win 

1st and 2nd in first race .....2nd rated won in 2nd race .....like I said I think the formula is fine for small races ....its just the big hcap formula needed now (and then the graded races )....

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1 minute ago, Pirate53 said:

I'm on Scale Force. Not rated it but was sent as a tip to me this am.

Well good luck ....I'm just loving each result cos I can tell what's working or not working then cross things off .....the list is shortening to a few chosen .....I ditched the previous form figure as it was taking the place of other important factors and the stats were saying it wasnt working as well as I expected 

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34 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

There seems to be a lot of success on here with top rated selections which is good but is anybody finding success with "value" selections.

Not me so far. A big advantage of rating a race is that it gives you a good feel for all the runners. Most of the value selections look, sound and smell like dogs. Conclusion.....they're probably dogs!!

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The value bets are of particular importance when they are rated top 2 or 3 .....you'll get better bets in the big handicaps as the value will be better hidden and prices naturally higher .....in theory if you get the form ratings accurate and you back the value bets rated top 2 or 3 ew you should do pretty well long term ....that's something that will become obvious long term ....in the meantime everything bounces off accurate form ratings ...we are getting there ....vast improvements since we first started across the board ....there are big things to come ....I'm sure of it 

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9 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

545 wolv

Say it as it is 7.8 9/2 6/1 value 

Highly dancer 7.2 5/1 9/1 good value 

Unusual to get 2 value bets in small race midweek ...so I'll play 

2 x10pt wins 

 

I left this alone, wasn't enough races form for several horses lol including the favourite.

Edited by Wildgarden
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32 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Looking forward to what you guys  put up as value in the Cheltenham handicaps some 33/1 shots please!

Can’t wait for the festival, it’s like Xmas for me . Really looking forward to the handicaps and quite confident we can put some big prices up that will win or at least place . Had a few bets already for it, now it’s NRNB, but only in the grade 1&2 races 

Edited by Villa Chris
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10 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I so hope it goes ahead as planned....short term I hope the betfair hurdle saturday goes ahead ....that will be good practice 😁

It will definitely go ahead . Can’t see the weekend race card surviving though, although they are on about getting the big races like the bet fair hurdle and Denman chase rearranged for the following week if they can. I’d like to see how Metier runs in the hurdle race as he’s this side of the ponds main fancy for the supreme .

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2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

545 wolv

Say it as it is 7.8 9/2 6/1 value 

Highly dancer 7.2 5/1 9/1 good value 

Unusual to get 2 value bets in small race midweek ...so I'll play 

2 x10pt wins 

 

Well done Richard, i'd already backed Highly Dancer earlier in the day at 11/1 and then when I saw your post I went in again at 9s - happy days!! 👍🍻

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25 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I've quick rated the 815 .....

Doctor nuno 7.9 

Secret potion 7.6 

Kingsley clarion 7.4 

Cappadocia   7.1 

Fard    7.6 

Test race ...Impossibly difficult race but class ratings give it to fard and doctor nuno...again let's see what happens but its anyones 

Nightmare race ......thought it would be fun to rate but not for betting ......bad luck with quarry beach ...he almost got up 

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Newcastle 17.30

Dutch Decoy          17.08        5/1        3/1     No value

Tadleel                   15.48        6/1        7/2     No value

Daafr                     13.33        7/1        8/1     Some value

Anif                        13.14       7/1       15/2     Some value

Ulshaw Bridge       13.09       7/1       11/2     No value

Red Bond              12.64      15/2      11/2     No value

Katheefa               11.03       17/2      12/1     Value

Dandys Gold         10.49       9/1        33/1    Value

Tricky race this. I have a share in Dutch Decoy so a bit biased! He should win if reproducing the last run. Was top weight lto and made light of it. 4lb higher today and top weight again. We'll see. Value bet is Katheefa but hard to fancy for me.

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1 hour ago, Pirate53 said:

Newcastle 17.30

Dutch Decoy          17.08        5/1        3/1     No value

Tadleel                   15.48        6/1        7/2     No value

Daafr                     13.33        7/1        8/1     Some value

Anif                        13.14       7/1       15/2     Some value

Ulshaw Bridge       13.09       7/1       11/2     No value

Red Bond              12.64      15/2      11/2     No value

Katheefa               11.03       17/2      12/1     Value

Dandys Gold         10.49       9/1        33/1    Value

Tricky race this. I have a share in Dutch Decoy so a bit biased! He should win if reproducing the last run. Was top weight lto and made light of it. 4lb higher today and top weight again. We'll see. Value bet is Katheefa but hard to fancy for me.

Got to be tadleel for me! Down in class  knocking on door. Katheffa value.2119580340_Screenshot_20210211-1021492.thumb.png.3fa85c49f0d4e2fadd8b693d73336754.png

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