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New Year, new thread!

3 games today and 3 bets for me, involving two of them.

Bristol v Newcastle: Sell Bristol hotshots for 1 point at 40 with SPIN (Charles Piutau, Siva Naulago, Semi Radrada, Ioan Lloyd)

Scarlets v Dragons: Sell Scarlets hotshots for 1 point at 38 with SPIN (Angus O'Brien, Tom Prydie, Steff Evans, Kieran Hardy) and sell their sub try minutes for 1 point at the generally available 43.

I get notional prices of 32.3 and 31.7 for the hotshots for edges of 19.3% and 16.6% so those seem sound enough sells. Nothing exciting about the subs price, with both firms agreeing, but still a sell for me.

I'm not setting odds for anyone else posting a rugby bet during 2021 but, speaking as a relative ignoramus about the sport, some more informed pontification is always welcome.

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4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

...................................................speaking as a relative ignoramus about the sport, some more informed pontification is always welcome.

As a former scrum half (for Milverton Street Infants XV😎) may I suggest over 1.5 cards at 12/5 (Hills) in this evening's encounter between Cardiff Blues and Ospreys. The referee is Ben Whitehouse who does not  usually hesitate to adopt the letter of the law. The spread option with a buy of bookings at 15 (SX) also has some appeal.

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6 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bristol v Newcastle: Sell Bristol hotshots for 1 point at 40 with SPIN (Charles Piutau, Siva Naulago, Semi Radrada, Ioan Lloyd)

Scarlets v Dragons: Sell Scarlets hotshots for 1 point at 38 with SPIN (Angus O'Brien, Tom Prydie, Steff Evans, Kieran Hardy) and sell their sub try minutes for 1 point at the generally available 43.

Seconds away from a decent profit but a last gasp Scarlets sub try scuppered it. 37 point loss on that bet but a 38 point profit as none of their hotshots scored. 2 tries for Bristol hotshots made for a 10 point loss so the net result is a 9 point loss.

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Well, with 13 games to go at I was expecting today to be one of those where I feel like I've placed "too many" bets but, to my surprise, they've yielded only 4 bets so far (with a few markets yet to be priced). All of these are routine rather than standout but I've got 1 point sells of the following.

Pumas v Golden Lions: Golden Lions hotshots at 54 and their sub try minutes at 45

Lyon v Castres: Lyon hotshots at 36

Leinster v Connacht: Leinster hotshots at 53

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On 1/2/2021 at 11:46 AM, harry_rag said:

Pumas v Golden Lions: Golden Lions hotshots at 54 and their sub try minutes at 45 made up at 0 so +45

Lyon v Castres: Lyon hotshots at 36 made up at 25 so +11

Leinster v Connacht: Leinster hotshots at 53 made up at 0 so +53

 

19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

One more, a 1 point sell of Leinster sub try mins at 55, now that all the prices are up. made up at 80 so -25

Another last minute sub try takes the gloss off but a decent enough day, 3 winners from 4 bets, 84 points profit.

4 from 7 total for the thread and +75 points.

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

 

Another last minute sub try takes the gloss off but a decent enough day, 3 winners from 4 bets, 84 points profit.

4 from 7 total for the thread and +75 points.

:cigar

 

Met Office currently says 90% chance of heavy rain at Leicester during the match v Bath I can foresee plenty of Bath forward pressure near the Leicester line and perhaps a try or two from their forwards. Have gone with the obvious one and bought Zach Mercer try minutes at 10. The 9/1 and 10/1 about his fellow back row forwards, Sam Underhill and Toby Faletau, is tempting. Also considered hooker, Tom Dunn, but best priced 3/1 a bit skinny for my liking.

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Unlucky with those @Labrador a couple of 1 point sells for me in the Lyon v Montpellier game later.

Sell Lyon hotshots at 43 (Charlie Ngatai, Xavier Mignot, Pierre Louis Barassi, Noa Nakaitaci) and their sub try minutes at 45.

Hotshots worth more like 36 for me so a decent enough edge of 16%.

Nothing appeals in the Blue Bulls v Golden Lions game, though it should be a colourful spectacle!

 

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6 games tonight, 3 bets from 2 of them for me.

Sale v Worcester: Sell Sale hotshots for 1 point at 38 (Sam James, Tom Roebuck, Robert du Preez, Marland Yarde)

Leinster v Ulster: Sell Leinster hotshots for 1 point at 41 (Hugo Keenan, Jordan Larmour, Dave Kearney, Sean Cronin) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 52.

Sale hotshots the standout for me; I have them worth 30.5 points so almost a 20% edge. The other 2 are just everyday bets, the presence of one of the front 5 (Cronin) in the hotshots making it a bit harder to calculate the true price.

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Griquas v Cheetahs: Sell Cheetahs hotshots for 1 point at 54 (Clayton Blommetjies, Duncan Saal, Dries Swanepoel, Rosko Specman) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 51.

Hotshots 54 to buy elsewhere so a "spread free" trade; I value them at 49 so a modest 9% edge.

Castres v Agen: Sell Castres hotshots for 1 point at 56 (Julien Dumora, Geoffrey Palis, Thomas Combezou, Filipo Nakosi) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 38.

Again around a 9% edge on the hotshots as I make them worth 51.

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A clean sweep yesterday in terms of profit, all made up at zero bar Castres hotshots which came in at 50 for just a 6 point profit. +149 points on the day.

Half a dozen games today, yielding 4 bets, all 1 point sells.

Pumas v Blue Bulls: Blue Bulls hotshots at 39 (Clinton Swart, Jade Stighling, Marnus Potgeiter, Stravino Jacobs) and their sub try minutes at 53

Harlequins v London Irish: Harlequins hotshots at 40 (Louis Lynagh, Joe Marchant, Cadan Murley, Alex Dombrandt)

Toulouse v Stade Francais: Toulouse hotshots at 40 (Thomas Ramos, Yoann Huget, Sofiane Guitoune, Matthis Lebel)

Nothing especially standout but all enough edge to sell.

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On 1/3/2021 at 12:08 PM, harry_rag said:
On 1/2/2021 at 11:46 AM, harry_rag said:

Pumas v Golden Lions: Golden Lions hotshots at 54 and their sub try minutes at 45 made up at 0 so +45

Lyon v Castres: Lyon hotshots at 36 made up at 25 so +11

Leinster v Connacht: Leinster hotshots at 53 made up at 0 so +53

 

On 1/2/2021 at 4:08 PM, harry_rag said:

One more, a 1 point sell of Leinster sub try mins at 55, now that all the prices are up. made up at 80 so -25

Another last minute sub try takes the gloss off but a decent enough day, 3 winners from 4 bets, 84 points profit.

4 from 7 total for the thread and +75 points.

Just putting the results so far into a spreadsheet to make it easier to track them and noticed an error; I didn't note the result of the first bet which made up at 50 for a 4 point profit so it was 4 from 5 on the day and +88 rather than 84. Obviously the ongoing total will be 4 points out but I'll correct it at the next update (and include any other errors if necessary).

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Just the one bet today.

Nevers v Provence: Sell Nevers hotshots for 1 point at 36 (Camou, Bolakoro, Blanc, Le Gal)

Not the most inspiring sell (towards the minimum I'm willing to sell at and only a modest edge) but still a qualifier. Worth posting so I can make the joke about the second of the named players often being dropped when things aren't going well! :eyes

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Not a thrilling day but a few routine sells for me.

Zebre v Edinburgh: Sell Edinburgh hotshots for 1 point at 36 (Jack Blain, Mark Bennett, Chris Dean, Eroni Sau) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 36

Racing 92 v Bordeaux: Sell Racing 92 hotshots for 1 point at 41 (Kurtley Beale, Louis Dupichot, Virimi Vakatawa, Juan Imhoff)

Agen v Toulouse: Sell Toulouse hotshots for 1 point at 58 (Maxime Medard, Matthis Lebel, Sofiane Guitoune, Cheslin Kolbe) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 35

Clermont v Castres: Sell Clermont hotshots for 1 point at 44 (Kotato Matsushima, Damian Penaud, JP Barraque, Aliverati Raka)

 

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