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Australian Open 2021


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Donna Vekic (+1,5 Sets) to beat Jennifer Brady at 1.90 with betfair

Vekic played really well against Kanepi. She could have lost in 2 sets as she had to face a MP in the 2nd set but she saved it with a massive serve and then she won the TB. I was impressed with the way that she played the crucial points, that was one of those matches that gives you a lot of confidence for the next ones. Brady has not been tested yet as she has played against Bolsova, Brengle and Juvan so play against Vekic will be a big jump for her. IMO Vekic has more options than the odds suggest so I bet that she will win a set, at least.

Jessica Pegula (+1,5 Sets) to beat Elina Svitolina at 1.65 with betfair

Another player that has impressed me during this tournament is Pegula. She beat Azarenka in the 1st round, comebacking a 5-3 in the 1st set. After that she has destroyed Stosur and Mladenovic. Svitolina also has been playing really well but I did not like how she played in the first set against Putintseva. I think Pegula can win this match, or a set at least.

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2 hours ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:

Simona Halep at 13/10 to beat Serena Williams?!

Did the bookies not watch the 2019 Wimbledon final? That price is birthdays and Christmases all rolled into one.

Can we all agree now to lump on that price with a lot of money? Williams doesn’t have anywhere near the level of movement required to compete with Halep. Simona is going to blow her off the court, like she did in the Wimbledon final.

What about 9 out of the other 10 times when she lost to her ?

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Player Total Breaks of Serve in Match - Mackenzie McDonald Over 0.5 (vs. Medvedev) at 1.72 with Bet365

This may be the last tie I'm going for this market, but I feel that I've been unlucky with both Monteiro and Cressy for a total of 8BPs missed. I've been impressed by McDonald so far in this season and I liked his fight in the previous round as well. Medvedev went nuts at a few point, on the other hand and a single break is always just one blip away. Again, I think that the price is off and I'm willing to pay to see how many BPs McDonald will miss - if he gets any, that is. 

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Am I the only one who thinks that Dimitrov can reach the final here? It's paid around 5.50 in my local bookies. Karatsev run surely has to come to a end..he's lacking both routine and experience at this stage,and conditions are very favorable to Grigor's game. He's obviously enjoying them a lot. Plus,he was already in this stage of the Grand Slam,so probably won't be nervous as his opponent. 
And also,by the look of things,neither Zverev nor Djokovic are playing best tennis at the moment,plus they both have similar stomach muscle injuries..

Any opinion?

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2 hours ago, DrO said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Dimitrov can reach the final here? It's paid around 5.50 in my local bookies. Karatsev run surely has to come to a end..he's lacking both routine and experience at this stage,and conditions are very favorable to Grigor's game. He's obviously enjoying them a lot. Plus,he was already in this stage of the Grand Slam,so probably won't be nervous as his opponent. 
And also,by the look of things,neither Zverev nor Djokovic are playing best tennis at the moment,plus they both have similar stomach muscle injuries..

Any opinion?

Personally I don’t agree . karatsev seems to be very aggressive . Not saying he has a shot of winning this but IMO is n that Dimitrov played well  it was more of Thiem having an horrendous day and lack of energy or sleep. Something was definitely not right with him. Dimitrov’s game didn’t impress me much to be quite honest. 

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5 hours ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:

I would think that most of them, if not all of them, were long enough ago to be rather irrelevant.

In terms of 2021 Halep and 2021 Serena Williams, Williams doesn’t have anywhere near the movement or all-round game to go toe-to-toe with Halep. I’m happy to lump on Halep and if need be, and it goes wrong, lump on even bigger on Osaka to beat Williams in the next round.

I think we’re in a nice little sweet spot for betting, when the Federer/S. Williams/Nadal/Djokovic eras are starting to wind down, but the bookies still insist on pricing them up based on their previous glories. There’s decent money to be made in opposing these players, when the time is right. I could have gone in on Sabalenka to beat Williams, but I decided to hold off, as I thought that Sabalenka’s game might suit Serena a bit more than Halep’s. I think Sabalenka probably deserved to win the match just about. 

I trust Halep - and Osaka - hugely though, the best two players in the world by a bit of a margin, so I’m happy to lump on them both to beat Serena, if they both end up playing her.

I don’t think it will get that far though, as Halep is the one player that I’d back to demolish Serena. I can’t believe that I’m getting 13/10 on that, because I would happily take a far shorter price, and still think it was a gift! I was expecting somewhere around 1/2 or 4/9.

I agree with you. Sabalenka overpowered Serena in most parts of the match. SAabalenka deserved to win. Serena also deserved to lost the first against Potapova. The teenager dominated her but when she was serving for the set (5-3) she did 5 Double faults in the same game! Unbelievable. Finally, Serena broke her and then won the TB (a tight one). That frustrated Potapova. Who knows what could have happened if Potapova had won that first set because Serena was outclassed by the teenager on that set.

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Leylah/Watson to beat Fichman/Olmos at 2.75 with bet365

I add one doubles match for tonight. Fichman/Omos is the favorite pair but not that much IMO. None of them has never been in the top 50. I guess that they favor them so much because they beat Chan/Chan in the 1st round but Leylah/Watson also beat another of the best current pairs of the circuit in the 1st round (Stosur/Zhang). Fichman/Olmos have played together 5 matches in their career (3-2) while Watson/Leylah is the first time they play together (2-0).

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8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Okay, done with 1.20 betting for now. Ridiculous even if Murray turns it around. First Fognini now Marchenko. Sometimes these odds are traps, but I did see Marchenko yesterday and now this...there you go, crap happens.

Why did you start picking 1.20 prices? It's not at all like you.

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Because I happened to see Murray's match against Marterer and then Marchenko's against Gaio. Ignorance would've saved me money there. In other news, you can now lay off McDonald's break for a profit even before a ball was hit. Let's see if I get the win in this time around or if this will be another value bet gone wrong (thinking back to Tu Li/Sousa with the same arb potential).

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10 minutes ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:

Really surprised and disappointed about Elina Svitolina - that’s the second Grand Slam in a row where the draw has really opened up in front of her, and she failed to take advantage either time.

I hope her career doesn’t pass her by, in terms of Grand Slam success - I’d really like to see her win one. There are worse players than her who have won Grand Slams, and her and Karolina Pliskova will both have underachieved if they end their careers without one. Those two are definitely next in line to win one.

If you are surprised it's because you haven't been paying attention to Pegula. She's playing the best tennis of her career. And Pliskova is unable to play well for 7 straight matches, it's beyond her

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I was disappointed with Svitolina as well. In fact, I found myself wondering how on earth she's number 5 in the world. Her serve is weak, her groundstrokes often lack punch, she shanks quite a few balls due to footwork and timing issues and she spent most of the match against Pegula playing safe. For me, Svitolina didn't win a set against Pegula - from what I saw, Pegula won the first and last sets and lost the second set because her level dropped rather than Svitolina upping her game.

I can't see her or Pliskova winning a slam - Pliskova is too reliant on serve and if you take that away she'd probably be an average top 50 player at best, and Svitolina seems to me to be good at all facets of the game without being exceptional in any and I don't think that gets it done with the way tennis is now. The players that are winning the big tournaments are all powerful, they go for their shots and try to make things happen and they're looking to win points rather than wait for their opponents to lose them.

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Simona Halep overcame Swiatek in an an amazingly hard fought match. Watching it, you are thinking Simona's in big trouble here. Yet she done it. I was almost shaking my head in disbelief, at that win. I also watched the Sabalenka - Williams game. It was littered with errors by Sabalenka. Gifting it to Williams was my take. I could write a page full of positives for a Halep win here. It looks a banker to me. Famous last words lol. One thing i am sure about is Williams will have to show a lot more here to beat Halep, than that last game. Yes it's possible. But is it probable ? That's up to you to decide. Like SteffiSteffiGraf said above....shes going to blow her off the court. Or a mildly comfortable win. Both work for me. Go and watch the highlights from the Swiatek match again for reassurance, and wonder why on earth shes the outsider here. 

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55 minutes ago, Johnny1 said:

Simona Halep overcame Swiatek in an an amazingly hard fought match. Watching it, you are thinking Simona's in big trouble here. Yet she done it. I was almost shaking my head in disbelief, at that win. I also watched the Sabalenka - Williams game. It was littered with errors by Sabalenka. Gifting it to Williams was my take. I could write a page full of positives for a Halep win here. It looks a banker to me. Famous last words lol. One thing i am sure about is Williams will have to show a lot more here to beat Halep, than that last game. Yes it's possible. But is it probable ? That's up to you to decide. Like SteffiSteffiGraf said above....shes going to blow her off the court. Or a mildly comfortable win. Both work for me. Go and watch the highlights from the Swiatek match again for reassurance, and wonder why on earth shes the outsider here. 

She beat williams in wimbledon pretty hard and this will be the continuation, at least that is my idea...

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barty's path to the finals is clear especially after svitolina is out. I don't think any of the girls remaining in that group will give her a fight. elise mertens can come close but svitolina would have been a different story. I already have a bet on Barty to win australian open followed by serena both of which I got @6.00 with betway

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20 minutes ago, Robaldo said:

She beat williams in wimbledon pretty hard and this will be the continuation, at least that is my idea...

ya serena got crushed 6-2, 6-2 but that was 1.5 yrs back. halep is not quite the finisher she was 2 yrs back. she was lucky to get the win against swiatek yesterday because iga made too many unforced errors. serena's service is something which is lethal and also she is a 23 time grandslam champion. you know what 23 time means against 2 time champion

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bruce lee's loss to nadal means nadal has to overcome 2 tough opponents now. my guess is tsitsipas and medvedev. i think medvedev will beat roublev quite easily and tsitsipas experience shall see him through.

 

joker's path to final is easy. zverev is not going to trouble novak last time zverev beat him was in the year ending tournament where joker had caught cold before the match and was not 100% fit.

Edited by bet4fun
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14 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Okay, done with 1.20 betting for now. Ridiculous even if Murray turns it around. First Fognini now Marchenko. Sometimes these odds are traps, but I did see Marchenko yesterday and now this...there you go, crap happens.

ya even i took andy murray. andy lost in straight sets against someone like marchenko is a joke.

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5 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Muchova is the comeback queen, first from 0-5 against Pliskova and today from 0-4 against Mertens.

barty will pounce on that weakness of her. if she is slow in starting matches someone will punish her surely.

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