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Australian Open 2021


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1 hour ago, bet4fun said:

just when the lockdown started in australia and crowds left the real novak comes back even though he is injured and shows the kid what world class is even fooled the bookies who at one point had a rate of 3.50. a fit novak would have crushed fritz

We'll find out in the next few days wether Joker's injury was real or serious, but he has a long long history of selling a bag of goods, and those brave enough to go against the market swings would have made some juicy profits. I had a little at Evens in-play, but I know he traded a lot higher than that, and in the outright he drifted out to a huge price at one point. Nice trade if you got it, but I'd be greening up now if it was me because he hasn't looked great in any match and these courts look super fast and that won't be in his favour (hasn't he already complained about the courts?).

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Not really happy with anything from today's card. The only bet that I'm happy with, even despite the short odds, is Alex de Minaur to beat Fabio Fognini at 1.20 with Pinnacle. Fognini has been awful so far in this season and we now all realize how fluke his win over PCB was. The Aussie has the right style for frustrating him and has been fair bit better for quite some time now.

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23 hours ago, darko08 said:

Jessica Pegula (-3.5 Games) to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 1.80 with bet365

Pegula is still to lose a set in this tournament. She has won against Azarenka (7-5, 6-4) and Stosur (6-0, 6-1). I haven't watched the later one but against Azarenka she played really well, comebacking a 5-2 in the 1st set. Mladenovic has won against Sakkari (6-2, 0-6, 6-3) and Hibino (7-5, 6-1). Hibino choked when she was leading the 1st set 5-3, losing 4 straight games and that frustrated her for the second one. And then, we have that bagel in her match against Sakkari. IMO, Pegula is so much player than Mladenovic right now, by far, and the fact that she has only lost 1 game in her match against Stosur tells me that her comeback against Azarenka has been great for her confidence. Another interesting fact to be considered is that Pegula won against Mladenovic here just 1 week ago, and she did clearly (6-4, 6-1). 

Kaia Kanepi (-3,5 Games) to beat Donna Vekic at 1.90 with William Hill

Kanepi has won against Sevastova (6-3, 6-1) and Kenin (6-3, 6-2). I was concerned about her physique but she only has been in court 2 hours in her first 2 matches here. I did not appreciate fatigue in her match against Kenin. Vekic came here in a bad form. She lost in the 1st round against Pera in Abu Dhabi and Pironkova in the Varra Yalley Classic. She dropped a set against Yafan Wang in her first match here and won in 2 sets against Podoroska. Kanepi is in better form and, as I said, she only has been 2 hours in court. 

I got this 2 for tonight, and I add these 2 for the next day.

Su-Wei Hsieh (+1,5 Sets) to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 1.80 with betfair
Iga Swiatek (+1,5 Sets) to beat Simona Halep at 1.50 with bet365

Hsieh has won against Pironkova (7-5, 6-2), Andreescu (6-3, 6-2) and Errani (6-4, 2-6, 7-5) while Vondrousova has played against Peterson (2-6, 7-5, 7-5), Marino (6-1, 7-5) and Cirstea (6-2, 6-4). Vondrousova only has dropped a set in her 1st match here. Peterson came here in an awful form (3-10 in 2020) but she's a hard court specialist and she put Vondrousova in troubles with her incredible forehand. After that, she won against Marino, who lost 4 straight games in the 2nd set when she was serving for the set (5-3), and Cirstea, who has been really disappointing in her match against her. She has played against 3 big hitters so playing against Hsieh will be a huge change for her. I still maintain that Vondrousova is far from her best form and the fact that she lost against Hsieh (6-3, 3-6, 6-7) in Abu Dhabi 1 month ago says to me that this is not an impossible match for Hsieh. 
Halep has won against Cabrera (6-2, 6-1), Tomjlanovic (4-6, 6-4, 7-5) and Kudermetova (6-1, 6-3) while Swiatek has won against Rus (6-1, 6-3), Giorgi (6-2, 6-4) and Ferro (6-4, 6-3). Halep has raised considerably her game in her 3rd match here after her thrilling match against Tomjlanovic. IMO, the result of her match against Kudermetova did not reflect how the match really was, but the reality was that Halep played the crucial points so much better and Kudermetova played only with a 43% of 1st serves, which is an awful stat and that's the reason why Halep broke her serve that many times. That's something I don't expect from Swiatek... I like so much how Swiatek played against Rus and Giorgi but I don't like how she has played against Ferro. She has wasted so many BPs and she has reduced her % of 1st serves in relation to her first 2 matches here. That's something she will have to  fix if she wants to win against Halep. This will be a nice match to watch... Swiatek's game suits more on this fast courts but I don't like the fact that Halep lost big (6-1, 6-2) against her in the FO because now she will be eager to take revenge on her.
 

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6 hours ago, j6u1uv4n4 said:

Likeliest winner from underdogs Bencic, Putintseva, Juvan and Alexandrova?

Putintseva seems to be pigeoned by Svitolina, however most of the matches have been played long time ago. 

Bencic seems over ranked and has been playing a different level of players compared to Mertens. 

Juvan I don't know much about, but Brady has been very consistent lately.

Alexandrova looks like a good bet as Barty isn't 100%?

Bencic really struggled against Kuznetsova. imo no way she beats Mertens.

Juvan also struggled vs. Sheriff. No way she lays a glove on Brady. 

Would probably say Putinseva has a chance, and is playing well - if you're after an underdog. I wish there was an under/over market for the number of times her racket is smashed on the floor.

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Putintseva's way has been so much easier but she has dropped a set in every single match she has played here. She has played against a depressed player and player who has an awful record in Australia. Svitolina is playing really well and she has not lost any set yet despite playing against 2 dangerous players, especially Bouzkova. Besides, Putintseva was one of the players who was under a strict quarantine. I don't see Svitolina losing this one. In fact, she's my favorite player to win this quarter. She also did so well in her preparation matches.

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I have been focusing on women tennis in this GS but anyone can tell me what makes Berrettini so much favorite against Kachanov? I only have watched his match against Medvedev and a big part of his match against Machac and I haven't seen him playing that well. Against Medvedev he was destroyed but what surprised me the most is how vulnerable he was in some parts of his match against Machac, especially when he was playing with second serves, I found him a little bit erratic. I haven't seen Kachanov at all so can somebody tell me why these odds?

Edited by darko08
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41 minutes ago, darko08 said:

I have been focusing on women tennis in this GS but anyone can tell me what makes Berrettini so much favorite against Kachanov? I only have watched his match against Medvedev and a big part of his match against Machac and I haven't seen him playing that well. Against Medvedev he was destroyed but what surprised me the most is how vulnerable he was in some parts of his match against Machac, especially when he was playing with second serves, I found him a little bit erratic. I haven't seen Kachanov at all so can somebody tell me why these odds?

My guess is the performance against Thiem last week which is fresh in the memory. I suppose the idea behind the odds is both are big servers but Berrettini is playing better, so in a close match which will probably be decided by tie-breaks it'll come down to who plays one or two points best, as the serving will cancel each other out and as Berrettini is playing the better he'll be the winner. I don't think the odds are too far off what they should be. Across five sets I'd rather be on Berrettini than Khachanov as I think his level is more stable.

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I would echo @Torque here, I think Matteo's ceiling is a bit higher than Karen's right now. He is playing with belief as well and I would rather be on him than on Khachanov. That said, the odds for the straight win are a tad low for my liking. I'm adding this one though.

Cameron Norrie (+10.5) to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.75 with Unibet

Rafa has just canceled his practice session citing recurring back issues, so I think just about anything as a plus on Norrie can be tried here. This looks the safest to me and Unibet have a good price as well. Even if Nadal is near his current best, Norrie has a chance to cover this line if he plays his best tennis. He's a huge step up from Mmoh - I saw him against Giron in the practice tournament and he was dreadful.

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6 minutes ago, K8a said:

Thoughts on Sabalenka vs Williams? Something keeps telling me Sabalenka is up for the task...

At her top level, she's more than up to the task. Unfortunately, I can't back her in a match like this because of the niggling doubt that the UE machine version of Sabalenka is the one that shows up - especially against a legend like Serena. It's only fair to qualify that though by saying that UE Sabalenka is a rarer and rarer sight these days, and she's had some really good winning runs and beaten all the top players at the same time.

The blueprint for beating this version of Serena was set a long time ago now, so if Sabalenka can move her around the court with powerful, accurate strokes she'll have every chance - and she certainly has the power.

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15 minutes ago, Torque said:

At her top level, she's more than up to the task. Unfortunately, I can't back her in a match like this because of the niggling doubt that the UE machine version of Sabalenka is the one that shows up - especially against a legend like Serena. It's only fair to qualify that though by saying that UE Sabalenka is a rarer and rarer sight these days, and she's had some really good winning runs and beaten all the top players at the same time.

The blueprint for beating this version of Serena was set a long time ago now, so if Sabalenka can move her around the court with powerful, accurate strokes she'll have every chance - and she certainly has the power.

Her match against Ann Li was lights out. Kinda wonder if she can carry the momentum.

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Well, I finally decided to take a shot in this one.. As you said, this match is expected to be very tight so Kachanov at 3.30 looks juicy. As I said, I watched his matches against Daniil in the ATP Cup and Machac in his last round and I did not like how he played, I saw him erratic. 

Karen Kachanov to beat Mateo Berrettini at 3.30 with William Hill

@K8a I watched the first set of the Potapova-Serena match. Potapova was serving for the the first set and she did 5 DF.... Unbelievable... I also think Sabalenka can win but it's hard to predict what can happen there... GL whatever you bet.

Edited by darko08
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7 hours ago, K8a said:

Thoughts on Sabalenka vs Williams? Something keeps telling me Sabalenka is up for the task...

serena is looking in the best shape ever as per experts and she will beat sabalenka in straight sets. moreover she has preserved her energy throughout the tournament for these big games.

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6 hours ago, darko08 said:

Well, I finally decided to take a shot in this one.. As you said, this match is expected to be very tight so Kachanov at 3.30 looks juicy. As I said, I watched his matches against Daniil in the ATP Cup and Machac in his last round and I did not like how he played, I saw him erratic. 

Karen Kachanov to beat Mateo Berrettini at 3.30 with William Hill

@K8a I watched the first set of the Potapova-Serena match. Potapova was serving for the the first set and she did 5 DF.... Unbelievable... I also think Sabalenka can win but it's hard to predict what can happen there... GL whatever you bet.

khachanov has got so many chances to make it to the quarter finals of a grandslam. he always misses. even today berretini was not 100% fit.

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11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I would echo @Torque here, I think Matteo's ceiling is a bit higher than Karen's right now. He is playing with belief as well and I would rather be on him than on Khachanov. That said, the odds for the straight win are a tad low for my liking. I'm adding this one though.

Cameron Norrie (+10.5) to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.75 with Unibet

Rafa has just canceled his practice session citing recurring back issues, so I think just about anything as a plus on Norrie can be tried here. This looks the safest to me and Unibet have a good price as well. Even if Nadal is near his current best, Norrie has a chance to cover this line if he plays his best tennis. He's a huge step up from Mmoh - I saw him against Giron in the practice tournament and he was dreadful.

That was a stellar pick, thanks a lot! For some reason I was not looking at these game hc lines, but at this odds it was pure value. Even after the second set Norrie grinded and fought hard to make our bets green. Now I am wondering where the Nadal - Fognini odds will be. I mostly avoid backing or laying the Italian, but against Nadal he always finds perfect motivation and we already seen in the past that he is able to cause Rafa plenty of problems.

Edited by bobix
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5 hours ago, bet4fun said:

khachanov has got so many chances to make it to the quarter finals of a grandslam. he always misses. even today berretini was not 100% fit.

Berrettini made a show today (as Djokovic and Monfils usually do) when he saw he started to struggle in the 3rd set. The match IMO was a 50-50 and I was right cause the match was decided by 3 TBs. 3.30 on Kachanov was huge value IMO.

Edited by darko08
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Kokkinakis/Kyrgios to beat Koolhof/Kubot at 2.50 with bet365

I think there is value on this match. I heard Kyrgios talking about doubles and he really wants to win it. After I heard Kyrgios talking about that I picked them to win 2-0 against Harris/Knowle, and they did easily (6-2, 6-4). Both players have a massive serve and they did not concede a single BP in the whole match. When the best players on singles focus on doubles they usually beat the players who are exclusively dedicated on doubles. Koolhof/Kubot are both inside the Top 10 ranking now but this is the first time they play together. I think theres is big value on the australians, who really want to win this.

Edited by darko08
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@bet4fun If he really was feeling pain on his abdomen why he was constantly slicing with his backhand?? Do you know how painful is doing that when you feel pain on your abdomen? As I said, he made a show. He was feeling pain except when he was playing the points...😂

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8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Tomorrow is an outright minefield. I already have a stake on Osaka in the pre-tournament market, not sure if I'm going to have more bets though.

I think I've finally found a bet that I like:

Hsieh vs. Vondrousova Total breaks of serve - Over 7.5 @1.80 

Two players who struggle to hold serve at the best of times. They met earlier this year in a 3-set match - which had 14 breaks of serve.

16 breaks of serve in Hsieh's match against Errani; 8 against Andreescu, 7 against Pironkova. Vondrousova had 14 against Peterson, 8 against Marino and 5 against Cirstea.

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What do you think guys about Auger-Aliassime - Karatsev. Canadian seems to me a, generally, better, more versatile player, but watching some moments from Karatsev’s games, I’m afraid of his rocket-like forehand hits and good run starting with 2020 (even if majority of opponents were not of Grand Slam level)

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Two games to talk about quickly before the off. Williams/Sabalenka and Aliassime/Karatsev. I would have had no problems with Sabalenka winning if the pricing did not look suspiciously wrong. Sabalenka has no reason to be favorite in this match up. That really constitures the first red flag of this match up. Secondly is Sabalenka, Ms Inconsistent really going to blow Serena off the court with her power? I think the match up in strength will favor Serena. She she be able to hit flat back at Sabalenka and return with interest. I am leaning towards Serena strongly.

In the second match very really do you see a consistent price drop as that of karatsev turning out successful. Karatsev's chances now look to be over-influenced by the public factor and the injection of sharp money. Head to head stands at 1-1 with Karatsev winning the most recent 2-0 in a challenger a few years ago. Forget all the hype, I think I know my markets well enough to decline the bate here. Way to obvious. I do not know how or where Alissiame will find the bottle to win this. I just know the stakes are too high to count him out here. Aliassime win.

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52 minutes ago, vvararu said:

What do you think guys about Auger-Aliassime - Karatsev. Canadian seems to me a, generally, better, more versatile player, but watching some moments from Karatsev’s games, I’m afraid of his rocket-like forehand hits and good run starting with 2020 (even if majority of opponents were not of Grand Slam level)

I did not watch that match live but I did today. That guy is really good but I think that Aliassime will win that match. Karatsev hitted 50 winners in 3 sets, which is really impressive, but Diego helped him with many easy balls. Add to that how weak is Diego's serve... Maybe I'm wrong in my assertion but I hardly can see him winning against a top 20 hard hitter... Probably he could beat more top players with similar conditions than Schwartzman, that's for sure... I have read that he had to deal with a knee injury but that was only for some months and this guy has already 27 years old which means that he's not regular in his game because if he had been playing always as he did against Diego he would be in the Top 30, at least... I also have seen that he played 3 consecutive finals in Challengers the last year, which means that he's in a real good form. Medvedev said that Karatsev was their secret gun for doubles in the ATP Cup, but he didn't manage to show it because they won all their singles matches. I could be wrong, but if Aliassime doesn't have a real bad day, he should win this.

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1 hour ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:

 

On top of that, we have a couple of good match-ups in the men’s tournament as well, in Djokovic against Raonic, and Thiem against Dimitrov.

 

Djokovic v Raonic is not a good match up,   for Raonic.  On paper, the Canadian should have a lot in his favour - lightning fast court and questions marks over Joker's fitness. But he is a mental midget and unless the Serb is genuinely injured, I'm expecting the same result as every other time he plays him.

Dimitrov v Theim should be a good match. Dimi loves it here and shades the h2h with Dominic so looks a bit of value at current prices.

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Yeah, I'd reckon slight value on Dimitrov there, but I trust Thiem for some reason. One thing that I noted though, the addition of automatic Hawkeye means that he can stand even further back! How's that for a change, I was baffled when I saw him against Kyrgios. He loves having his back to the wall, doesn't he? Obviously there are good reasons for him doing that, but it can get exposed here and there.

I also managed to catch Marchenko/Gaio yesterday, some average hitting and medical timeouts for both. Therefore, I'll try short odds even despite the Fognini debacle, so Andy Murray to beat Ilya Marchenko at 1.25 with William Hill. I only saw Murray against Marterer, but even that performance would maybe be enough against Marchenko's performance against Gaio. The Scot has improved apparently and there's the nerves factor as well for Marchenko.

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58 minutes ago, Bettingboots said:

Djokovic v Raonic is not a good match up,   for Raonic.  On paper, the Canadian should have a lot in his favour - lightning fast court and questions marks over Joker's fitness. But he is a mental midget and unless the Serb is genuinely injured, I'm expecting the same result as every other time he plays him.

Dimitrov v Theim should be a good match. Dimi loves it here and shades the h2h with Dominic so looks a bit of value at current prices.

Completely agree about Djokovic v Raonic. If Djokovic can move, he wins. Even if Raonic gets into a winning position, and again on the assumption Djokovic is able to move freely, mental demons will creep in and stop him from getting over the line.

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