2021 All Bets Tracker

[Xtc12]

14 hours ago, harry_rag said:

9 - "3 Day Treble" Horses, 43 bets -30.64 points (12th worst market)

Basically I tried backing @Xtc12's selections as singles for a while. Gave up not so much due to the results but missed too many winners due to forgetting to back them and, as usual, found trying to regularly follow someone else's tips too time consuming with my own activity. 

Sorry to hear you lost on my selections @harry_rag.

This started brilliantly for me but went rapidly downhill since mid-August. For Year 1 the singles showed a return of 10.63% but that was as good as it got. Up to the time I stopped mid - December Year 2 was showing a loss of 48 Pts for that year alone.

[harry_rag]

58 minutes ago, Xtc12 said:

Sorry to hear you lost on my selections @harry_rag.

No need to apologise, I suspect it was missing at least a second winner that led me to jack it in. I would probably have just about been in front had I managed to back every selection for the period I was doing it. 

[harry_rag]

2 out of 3 yesterday (Edouard scored and the 20+ booking points bet). 41.04 points returns 43.65 for a 2.61 point profit.

2135.48 points up overall.

[harry_rag]

18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

2 - Bookings, 480 bets +769.82 points (most profitable market by some way)

Needs a closer look to see how that breaks down by different type of bookings bet. Obviously worth trying to keep doing anything that seems to be working! A lot of the 4-6 cards bets are automatic system picks (as per "100 Bets" thread) but the rest take quite a bit of study, especially in terms of ref stats.

4-6 cards bets: +360.2 points from 285 bets (mostly singles, a double and a treble from 16 multis made for a 0.97 point profit)

Player bets: +239.86 points from 67 bets (all the profit was from bets during the Euros. I'm not inclined to try and pursue this outside International tournaments but worth it when I've got time to really study every aspect of a game.)

Spread buys: +183.50 points from 8 bets (strong overlap with the above as the profit was from successful buys of booking hotshots during the Euros)

Unders bets: +108.46 points from 33 bets (profit from going low, perhaps because most people prefer to bet high. These bets need some study, especially ref stats. Often it's frustrating that I can't get a decent stake on at the desired price.)

Misc bets: +13.50 points from 4 bets (red cards, time of 1st card, no real conclusion from such a small sample)

Overs bets: -135.7 points from 83 bets (possibly telling that betting high was the only loss making category as it's the way most people prefer to bet, which can lead to any value being on the opposite bet)

61% of my unders bets went under and were profitable, 64% of my overs bets went under and were loss making. I'd say that was a reasonably interesting point and worth bearing in mind for next year!

[aldric]

7 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Unders bets: +108.46 points 

61% of my unders bets went under and were profitable, 64% of my overs bets went under and were loss making. I'd say that was a reasonably interesting point and worth bearing in mind for next year!

Would you have made a profit if you had switched all your over bets to under?

[harry_rag]

24 minutes ago, aldric said:

Would you have made a profit if you had switched all your over bets to under?

Probably, or a small loss. I suspect with overs I'm guilty of going for some bigger priced lines where I think they're value, for unders I'm more likely to play at closer to even money. I still lost at a similar level if I just look at the over lines that were closer to evens.

I have wondered previously if it would be profitable to blindly back the closest thing to an even money under line. If not, then perhaps back it wherever it's value compared to the spread price. Will give it some thought.

Kevin Pullein always says that where you think you've identified a value overs bet you should double or triple check your figures. If you still think it's a good bet, assume you've made a mistake and don't back it. There may be an element of that being tongue in cheek but it's underpinned by a lot of good sense.

[harry_rag]

21 hours ago, harry_rag said:

12 - Player to score 2+ goals, 40 bets +138.34 points (4th most profitable market)

I don't do this that often, sometimes to use a free bet, sometimes because I notice the price when placing an anytime bet and it strikes me as value. Maybe lucky to land 4 winners at 20+ this year, I won't be paying any greater attention to these bets (though might be worth doing some analysis of my anytime data to see how many of the players scored 2+ versus the expected number).

Based on 739 selections in my data sample, the "fair" odds are fairly accurate (showing an ROI of +1.38%) and the target "back" odds would be showing a return of 11.5% (hence the current experiment of backing the selections).

Based on the fair odds I'd have expected 290 players to score at least 1 goal compared to an actual value of 293, supporting the view of them being reasonably accurate. However, only 43 players have scored >1 goal compared to an expected value of 66. So that would seem to suggest there's not much point in considering backing players to score a brace (in my experience, the price for that rarely offers as much of an edge when compared to the anytime price).

For hat tricks I get 8 actual versus 10.57 expected.

[harry_rag]

4 winners from 9 bets yesterday (Lukaku and Brereton scored, 1 of the 4-6 cards bets and the City corners bet). 113.61 points returns 121.83 for an 8.22 point profit.

2143.7 points up overall.

[harry_rag]

0 from 3 yesterday for a 50 point loss.

2093.7 points up overall.

[harry_rag]

Finish the year with 1 from 2 (the 20+ booking points bet). 31.33 points returns 11.4 for a 19.93 point loss.

2073.77 points up overall.

[harry_rag]

7 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

2073.77 points up overall.

And that's how the year ends in terms of my bets posted on here. Not a bad return by any means though only fair to say I've pretty much been treading water since the end of July when I was 2106.38 points up. 

The overall figure breaks down as spread sells +1880 points, other spreads +165.50 and fixed odds +28.27 points.

That makes for a monthly loss of 47.56 points (the 6th losing month of the year) and that breaks down as follows.

Spread sells: No bets posted this month

Other spreads: 1 losing bet for -20 points

Fixed odds: 56 winners from 141 bets for -27.56 points.

 

[peanut peanut]

Well done Harry