Racing Chat 21st December

[The Equaliser]

Again very few non handicaps for me to look at.  I have decided to back Captain Cooper for £7.10 at 13/8 with Betfair.  Duty Of Care (Sir Michael Stoute) is favourite at around evens.  However, Captain Cooper is clear top rated on RPR and Timeform.  It also has a lot of tipsters recommending it which makes me worry that its price will shorten up tomorrow morning through to post time.  This is why I have backed it now

[alancraik]

todays selections


NEWCASTLE 13:55 Solo Saxophone 11/4 win

LINGFIELD 14:05 Pop Dancer 9/1 e/w 4 Places

NEWCASTLE 15:55 Spiorad 5/1 e/w 3 Places

NEWCASTLE 16:25 Look Out Louis 7/2 win
plus e/w yankee

Also
LINGFIELD 14:05 Merhoob 9/2 4 Places

NEWCASTLE 16:25 Gunmetal 9/2 3 Places
e/w double

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:
 

12.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Run After Genesis @ 12/1

Needs everything to drop right but is down to a handy mark and has been running okay of late despite some sloppy starts. This sharp mile plays to his strengths however, he's well drawn on the inside and if plotting a safe passage, looks a big price at double figure odds. 

12.45 Musselburgh - 2pts win Paper Promise @ 5/1

Was a decent bumper horse who has won a novice hurdle but failed to back that up in handicaps. However, can be a free going sort so 2m4f has stretched it at times, as did two miles at a stiff track at Newcastle in a hotter contest than this. Ought to come on for last time and this easier track should suit its style so in a modest race I think can land this off a reducing mark.

1.45 Musselburgh - 1pt e/w Always Tipsy @ 13/2

Has been returning to the boil after an absence and improving run by run with a decent enough second last time out. These conditions suit and whilst getting on a bit now, is off a winnable mark. Crucially has one of the best, if not the best jockey in this amateur jockeys race and that can be a significant plus on a horse who looks likely to run its race.

2.05 Lingfield - 1pt e/w El Hombre @ 11/1

Is sliding down the weights without running terribly but wasn't given the best of rides having drifted in the market last time and is further down the weights now. Will pop up before long under these sort of conditions off this mark and I'm hoping today can be the day with plenty of pace on in here which should suit his closing style.

2.35 Lingfield - 1pt e/w The Good Ting @ 12/1

Did too much too soon over 7f at Kempton last time but only faded late in the day and this drop to 6f is perfect off a handy mark. Looks sure to give his running from a prominent sit and I think he's well overpriced here.

3.25 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Termonator @ 16/1

Form tailed off in its last couple of runs but has been given a break since and this one has gone well fresh before. Has form around here too off a higher mark and had been consistent previously so I'm hoping that the break will have done him good and he can bounce back with blinkers on for the first time today as if doing so, his mark looks fair and his price is attractive.

[Wildgarden]

14 minutes ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:
 

12.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Run After Genesis @ 12/1

Needs everything to drop right but is down to a handy mark and has been running okay of late despite some sloppy starts. This sharp mile plays to his strengths however, he's well drawn on the inside and if plotting a safe passage, looks a big price at double figure odds. 

12.45 Musselburgh - 2pts win Paper Promise @ 5/1

Was a decent bumper horse who has won a novice hurdle but failed to back that up in handicaps. However, can be a free going sort so 2m4f has stretched it at times, as did two miles at a stiff track at Newcastle in a hotter contest than this. Ought to come on for last time and this easier track should suit its style so in a modest race I think can land this off a reducing mark.

1.45 Musselburgh - 1pt e/w Always Tipsy @ 13/2

Has been returning to the boil after an absence and improving run by run with a decent enough second last time out. These conditions suit and whilst getting on a bit now, is off a winnable mark. Crucially has one of the best, if not the best jockey in this amateur jockeys race and that can be a significant plus on a horse who looks likely to run its race.

2.05 Lingfield - 1pt e/w El Hombre @ 11/1

Is sliding down the weights without running terribly but wasn't given the best of rides having drifted in the market last time and is further down the weights now. Will pop up before long under these sort of conditions off this mark and I'm hoping today can be the day with plenty of pace on in here which should suit his closing style.

2.35 Lingfield - 1pt e/w The Good Ting @ 12/1

Did too much too soon over 7f at Kempton last time but only faded late in the day and this drop to 6f is perfect off a handy mark. Looks sure to give his running from a prominent sit and I think he's well overpriced here.

3.25 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Termonator @ 16/1

Form tailed off in its last couple of runs but has been given a break since and this one has gone well fresh before. Has form around here too off a higher mark and had been consistent previously so I'm hoping that the break will have done him good and he can bounce back with blinkers on for the first time today as if doing so, his mark looks fair and his price is attractive.

Also got el hombre thanks as ever

[roger2256]

Dec -6

1pt level stakes win only 

14.15 Mus Six One Nine 14/1Lost

15.55 New Baronial  Pride 6/1Lost

16.25 New Egrecio 80/1Lost

Prices as of now b365 

-3 

Dec -9

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by roger2256
Result

[MCLARKE]

A quiet day today. No Henderson runners so back to my young handicappers system. 1 selection in the 1.15 at Musselburgh, IZZY'S CHAMPION at 12/1.

[Wildgarden]

52 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

A quiet day today. No Henderson runners so back to my young handicappers system. 1 selection in the 1.15 at Musselburgh, IZZY'S CHAMPION at 12/1.

Had this one on my system place only sadly hey. 

[The Equaliser]

21 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Again very few non handicaps for me to look at.  I have decided to back Captain Cooper for £7.10 at 13/8 with Betfair.  Duty Of Care (Sir Michael Stoute) is favourite at around evens.  However, Captain Cooper is clear top rated on RPR and Timeform.  It also has a lot of tipsters recommending it which makes me worry that its price will shorten up tomorrow morning through to post time.  This is why I have backed it now

Congrats to Sir Michael Stoute for getting Duty Of Care to win.  What a lousy race Captain Cooper ran.  I sometimes why I bother with form at all.

Never mind, that's racing.

I have had a small bet of £2.30 at 6.8 = £13.07 poss return on Sauce Of Life in the 3.15 at Mussleburgh with the champion jockey aboard.  The world and his wife have climbed aboard Largy Gift because of the trainer's very good recent record in bumpers.  I say come on Hughesy and Nicky Richards show the favourite you are no back number either.

=======================================================================================

Captain Cooper let me down running a very poor race; almost identical conditions as to its last race but this time weakened a furlong out.  either something was amiss or the horse can't be trusted.  Luckily my spare bet on Sauce Of Life paid off with Brian Hughes pushing clear on the run in. My profit on the day was £5.97 so my balance is now £513.80 (£500 Bank).  I'll keep going with the non-handicaps as winner finding appears to be easier than trying to find winners in handicaps.

Three meetings tomorrow.  One all weather at Lingfield where both favourites in non handicaps are odds on.  There are some non handicap races at Huntingdon and Sedgefield with odds on shots but two or three races with the favourites odds against.  I may look at these soon as I have lots to do in preparing for Christmas tomorrow

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Wildgarden]

34 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Congrats to Sir Michael Stoute for getting Duty Of Care to win.  What a lousy race Captain Cooper ran.  I sometimes why I bother with form at all.

Never mind, that's racing.

I have had a small bet of £2.30 at 6.8 = £13.07 poss return on Sauce Of Life in the 3.15 at Mussleburgh with the champion jockey aboard.  The world and his wife have climbed aboard Largy Gift because of the trainer's very good recent record in bumpers.  I say come on Hughesy and Nicky Richards show the favourite you are no back number either.

 

 

Rarely look at form unless novice or high class races ?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Some gamble on Termonator but thank the lord he got up. Would have been rueing another late faller with Always Tipsy sadly coming down when looking the likely winner. A place for El Hombre too but just missed out with The Good Ting who lost his place before finishing well for a very close 4th.

[The Equaliser]

18 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

Rarely look at form unless novice or high class races ?

Many thanks for your comment but I just can't help asking that if you rarely look at form what do you look at?  Sorry if this is a dumb question but I'm just curious

 

[Wildgarden]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for your comment but I just can't help asking that if you rarely look at form what do you look at?  Sorry if this is a dumb question but I'm just curious

 

Up or down in distance, previous videos to see if unlucky runs, up or down in class, how trainer is doing, what weight is, how others are in race from previous videos track changes, going, weight (sometimes). Lately had no big wins here had 4 10-1s offline typically today when not posting, one away from 3600-1 as jewel maker lost in my acca.

Edited December 21, 2020 by Wildgarden

[MCLARKE]

6 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

Had this one on my system place only sadly hey. 

Well done. I must admit I don't tend to back each way unless there is an extra place available or a very short priced favourite.

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I have had a small bet of £2.30 at 6.8 = £13.07 poss return on Sauce Of Life in the 3.15 at Mussleburgh with the champion jockey aboard.  The world and his wife have climbed aboard Largy Gift because of the trainer's very good recent record in bumpers.  I say come on Hughesy and Nicky Richards show the favourite you are no back number either.

Well done although my money was on LARGY GIFT.

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

Up or down in distance, previous videos to see if unlucky runs, up or down in class, how trainer is doing, what weight is, how others are in race from previous videos track changes, going, weight (sometimes). Lately had no big wins here had 4 10-1s offline typically today when not posting, one away from 3600-1 as jewel maker lost in my acca.

Very interesting.  And of course it's your personal success that counts over and above any published info.  I hope that you now have a great Christmas ?

[The Equaliser]

48 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Well done although my money was on LARGY GIFT.

Kicking myself for not having this for a nap today.  Though, I don't usually back un-raced horses but I was a bit annoyed with the lack lustre performance of Captain Cooper and, the way I saw it was that Nicky Richard's bumper stats were just as good if not better than S R B Crawford and I had the champion jockey aboard.  Couple that with a great price I thought that the risk was well worth it, even if it lost.  Also, I seem to be scratching around to find non handicap races to bet on. I'm curious as to why you thought Largy Gift was a good bet?

 

[MCLARKE]

One of my systems is based on NH flat races where the horse hasn't run before. This reduced the field to 4, including the winner. Unfortunately for me I went with the market to narrow down my selections, it often works but obviously not in this instance.