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Racing Chat - Sunday December 20th


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Two early doors at Sha Tin

700 - STAR SUPERIOR 8/1 ew sky bet 

835 - SKY SHOW 9/1 ew sky bet ( 4 places ). 4th

Christophe Soumillon has quite a few rides on today's card , not sure if he's staying for the season to enhance the bank balance or if restrictions see him having to stay put albeit Ryan Moore who won 2 of 4 Group 1's last Sunday on International Day managed a healthy return on the UK a/w scene this week.

445 Southwell - WRATH OF HECTOR 15/2 ew betvictor1st

In form trainer & course specialist M.Appleby sends his charge here who's been placed 2/3 last excursions here , T.Ladd takes welcome 3Lbs off , good draw in stall 4 .

 

Edited by calva decoy
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Slim pickings today...nowt at prices but hopefully can get a couple up. All prices Bet365:

1.15 Fakenham - 1pt e/w Todd @ 13/2 (goes best at this track, better ground will suit and back down to a handy mark in a poor race)


1.45 Fakenham - 2pts win Eceparti @ 3/1 (didn't stay over 3 miles last time and needed the run first time up. Conditions suit, nearly won here on his only previous visit and on a competitive mark)


2.20 Fakenham - 2pts win Chess Player @ 7/2 (shaped well in novice races and looks on a fair enough mark on both of his last two runs. Hopefully is ridden a bit handier now handicapping around this sharp track as looks capable of landing this.)


3.45 Southwell - 2pts win Drakefell @ 11/2 (plenty of form under these conditions and wasn't disgraced last time despite a marked drift in the market. Possibly will come on for that as it was its first run in almost two months so good chance here.)

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2.15 Southwell - Luscifer 5pts win @ 11/10 B365

On a potential three timer here over course/distance, the 2nd LTO (Geography Teacher) franked the form by winning next time out.

 

4.45 Southwell - Salam Al Faisal 5pts place @ 4/9 B365

Looks capable of at least placing here, the 5lb rise in the ratings may be enough to stop him winning outright though. The 4th LTO (Spring Romance) won next time and is running in an earlier race here today, which may further frank the form if winning. I'll also place a 2pt double (Luscifer to win, Salam Al Faisal to place) too.

2pt double - Luscifer (to win)/Salam Al Faisal (to place) @ 2.03/1

 

Total outlay 12pts

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Only three non-handicap races to choose from today.

The most fascinating race is the 12.45 at Fakenham.  Allavina looks best but I'm not going to play.  Lots of support for Martello Sky with Bryony Frost aboard.  Allavina should beat this horse but Martello Sky likes it around here. Saturn and Silk could go well and who knows what Vibrance is capable of.

I think that Diocletian is too risky in the 3.20.  This will probably go to a prominent runner and I like the look of Sopat but the horse has been off for over 600 days.  Macfin is a possibilty but we will have to see how the horse copes with hurdling

The only other non-handicap race is the 2.45 at Southwell where Nelson Gay is a warm order to win the race. I don't know about anyone else but taking 4/7 for a horse that has never ran on fibresand seems to me like a risk not taking.

I will implement one of my favourite strategies in these circumstances. i.e, I don't have to have a bet.

Good luck to all the stalwarts that have a go today

=======================================================================================

Martello Sky got the better of Allavina and the market seemed to know that this would happen.

What a change for Diocletian.  Timeform said before the race (in rear) which put me off it.  It raced midfield before going on to win comfortably It. Just goes to show how trainers can change tactics and produce the goods.  We punters of course are not privy to any changes that teh trainers make.  It also drifted in price.  The horse I liked was easy to back at 8/1+ when I looked it up this morning and was then backed off the boards into 9/4.  It ran OK for quite a while but I guess lack of race fitness took its toll.

Nelson Gay did win its race but I think that it must have been a worry to its supporters as it only won by a head even though backed into 2/7 favourite

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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5 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

145 fakenham eceparti 4.4 smarkets unplaced

215 southwell Lucifer 11/10 black type 2nd too much to do near end form outside but kept on

415 southwell spring romance evens black type 2nd

445 southwell phantasmal 4.7 smarkets unplaced

Wins and 4 fold at 67-1

Disappointing day on these favourites or near favourites.

Edited by Wildgarden
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I've got a small liking for Tampa pace betting so I'll post these up for tonight -

Tampa Bay    5.42    Tip Sheet                      14/1ew
Tampa Bay    6.12    Special Princess             2/1
Tampa Bay    6.41    Madame Rouge            13/8
Tampa Bay    7.19    Two Step Dance            9/2ew
Tampa Bay    7.49    Arazi Like Move            6/1ew
Tampa Bay    8.21    C’est Parti                   13/2ew
Tampa Bay    8.50    Papajudgy                     7/2
Tampa Bay    9.20    Pugilist                         15/8
Tampa Bay    9.50    Violator                         8/1ew

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6 hours ago, skylark2009 said:

2.15 Southwell - Luscifer 5pts win @ 11/10 B365  -5pts

On a potential three timer here over course/distance, the 2nd LTO (Geography Teacher) franked the form by winning next time out.

 

4.45 Southwell - Salam Al Faisal 5pts place @ 4/9 B365  +2.22pts

Looks capable of at least placing here, the 5lb rise in the ratings may be enough to stop him winning outright though. The 4th LTO (Spring Romance) won next time and is running in an earlier race here today, which may further frank the form if winning. I'll also place a 2pt double (Luscifer to win, Salam Al Faisal to place) too.

2pt double - Luscifer (to win)/Salam Al Faisal (to place) @ 2.03/1  -2pts

 

Total outlay 12pts

In (+2.22pts)

Out (-12pts)

Running Total (-18.22pts)

 

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Nothing to get excited about but a very small profit made overall -

Tampa Bay    5.42    Tip Sheet                     14/1ew---------lost 14/1
Tampa Bay    6.12    Special Princess             2/1-----------2nd   6/4 fav
Tampa Bay    6.41    Madame Rouge            13/8-----------1st 11/10 fav
Tampa Bay    7.19    Two Step Dance            9/2ew---------lost
Tampa Bay    7.49    Arazi Like Move            6/1ew----------lost 13/2
Tampa Bay    8.21    C’est Parti                    13/2ew---------2nd  11/1
Tampa Bay    8.50    Papajudgy                      7/2------------1st   2/1 fav
Tampa Bay    9.20    Pugilist                         15/8-------d/h 3rd   9/4 fav
Tampa Bay    9.50    Violator                          8/1ew---------lost 16/1

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